General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[max silver]

Have you seen his swing? He's running into a few right now, don't expect it to continue.

 

He is the best defensive catcher on the team though, so its not a complete loss cause.

 

Who cares what his swing looks like? As long as he's squaring up baseballs like he is lately the results are going to show accordingly. When Jansen is at his worst he hits a ton of lazy fly balls with nothing behind them, but for this season he's producing career high hard hit rates, average exit velocities, and barrel percentage. There looks to have been a change to approach as walk rate is down and k rate + popup rate is up, while he's also pulling the ball more as well. His results have typically lagged behind expected results, but at the moment WOBA and xWOBA are pretty much identical, so he's finally being rewarded whereas most seasons he's typically seemed to be pretty unlucky.

[saskjayfan]

Have you seen his swing? He's running into a few right now, don't expect it to continue.

 

He is the best defensive catcher on the team though, so its not a complete loss cause.

 

What don't you like about Danny's swing? He's had trouble with breaking balls away. He can get on a fastball. He hit 2 against Glasnow in the playoffs last year.

[Laika]

Sort of feel bad for Reese. More WAR than either of the others but has lost his job because of dumb s*** like projekshuns and visible talent.

[max silver]

Sort of feel bad for Reese. More WAR than either of the others but has lost his job because of dumb s*** like projekshuns and visible talent.

 

Reese's second half WRC+ of 78 vs 294 for Jansen and 139 for Kirk might have something to do with his reduced playing time as well.

[Krylian]

Reese's second half WRC+ of 78 vs 294 for Jansen and 139 for Kirk might have something to do with his reduced playing time as well.

 

[G-Snarls]

Nobody wants to face Robbie Ray and this offense in a one shot game Wildcard game right now

[BigCecil]

Nobody wants to face Robbie Ray and this offense in a one shot game Wildcard game right now

 

Yup. UNLESS we were playing those mashing Orioles at Camden...which won't be an issue in a 21 wildcard.

[BigCecil]

What don't you like about Danny's swing? He's had trouble with breaking balls away. He can get on a fastball. He hit 2 against Glasnow in the playoffs last year.

 

Who doesn't have issues with breaking balls away...especially behind in the count? Not many.

 

Jansen was never as bad as he was for most of the year and he isn't as good as he is right now. Great to see him having some success. His overall numbers now make him a bona fide Catcher in the major leagues and its great to see.

[Omar]

Who doesn't have issues with breaking balls away...especially behind in the count? Not many.

 

Jansen was never as bad as he was for most of the year and he isn't as good as he is right now. Great to see him having some success. His overall numbers now make him a bona fide Catcher in the major leagues and its great to see.

 

As much as I was beating up on Jansen early on (who wasn't?) he is the guy I would want behind the dish in a wildcard game.

[wilko]

Nobody wants to face Robbie Ray and this offense in a one shot game Wildcard game right now

 

I'm pretty sure his pants will explode in that game.

[Brownie19]

As much as I was beating up on Jansen early on (who wasn't?) he is the guy I would want behind the dish in a wildcard game.

 

Any chance Springer is playing CF again this year?

[Laika]

Any chance Springer is playing CF again this year?

 

There has been no indication either way but it doesn't really look like it.

 

He seems pretty uncomfortable after many swings. I would imagine that he is in pain and it won't be going away until he stops playing baseball for a bit. He is playing with a partially healed grade 1 knee sprain which is also the type of injury that could get worse. A ligament is stretched / damaged, meaning the knee may not be at 100% structural integrity. Running the bases is already spooky enough.

[AMS528]

Question for anyone really, but how much weight would you put in xwOBA? It seems like it generally aligns with how players are hitting by the time there's large enough sample size.

 

For a guy like Juan Soto, it seemed like early in the season it viewed him as underperforming his peripherals pretty hard and it was right. His numbers exploded. But it's also thought that Marcus Semien has overperformed in multiple different years.

 

Mostly cause in the case of Jansen he underperformed his peripherals a lot last year (and somewhat at the beginning of this year). Has he just been perpetually unlucky and it's finally balancing out?

[Omar]

Any chance Springer is playing CF again this year?

 

Hopefully mid October in World Series road games.

[Laika]

Question for anyone really, but how much weight would you put in xwOBA? It seems like it generally aligns with how players are hitting by the time there's large enough sample size.

 

For a guy like Juan Soto, it seemed like early in the season it viewed him as underperforming his peripherals pretty hard and it was right. His numbers exploded. But it's also thought that Marcus Semien has overperformed in multiple different years.

 

Mostly cause in the case of Jansen he underperformed his peripherals a lot last year (and somewhat at the beginning of this year). Has he just been perpetually unlucky and it's finally balancing out?

 

It's great. Like all baseball statistics, when you are trying to use them to project performance or peg true talent, you need to be holistic. Things like FIP and xwOBA are good estimators in most instances but in some select examples they miss the mark, for specific reasons.

 

Most people who have an inclination for older school stats are way too quick to declare players to be FIP / xwOBA outliers though.

And perhaps nerds who are not well versed in Bayesian thinking are way too quick to dismiss possible FIP /xwOBA outliers.

[wilko]

It's great. Like all baseball statistics, when you are trying to use them to project performance or peg true talent, you need to be holistic. Things like FIP and xwOBA are good estimators in most instances but in some select examples they miss the mark, for specific reasons.

 

Most people who have an inclination for older school stats are way too quick to declare players to be FIP / xwOBA outliers though.

And perhaps nerds who are not well versed in Bayesian thinking are way too quick to dismiss possible FIP /xwOBA outliers.

 

RBI's is the true judge of talent for a hitter. Look at Semien. The dude has 39 HR's but didn't even break 100 RBI yet. No wonder he could only get a 1yr contract last year. I can't weight until he's gone.

[InsideThePark]

RBI's is the true judge of talent for a hitter. Look at Semien. The dude has 39 HR's but didn't even break 100 RBI yet. No wonder he could only get a 1yr contract last year. I can't weight until he's gone.

 

Agreed. Vladdy is a way better player now than he was to start the season. He has 102 RBI's right now, when the season started he didn't have any.

[Olerud363]

It's great. Like all baseball statistics, when you are trying to use them to project performance or peg true talent, you need to be holistic. Things like FIP and xwOBA are good estimators in most instances but in some select examples they miss the mark, for specific reasons.

 

Most people who have an inclination for older school stats are way too quick to declare players to be FIP / xwOBA outliers though.

And perhaps nerds who are not well versed in Bayesian thinking are way too quick to dismiss possible FIP /xwOBA outliers.

 

Semien pulls a lot of fly balls. I looked over his batted ball stats the other day and his pull side ground ball rate is 40%. Soto's and Vlad's are near 70%.

 

Not sure if that is repeatable, haven't checked other years... but would that explain why Semien out-performs xwOBA?

[John_Havok]

Semien pulls a lot of fly balls. I looked over his batted ball stats the other day and his pull side ground ball rate is 40%. Soto's and Vlad's are near 70%.

 

Not sure if that is repeatable, haven't checked other years... but would that explain why Semien out-performs xwOBA?

 

https://technology.mlblogs.com/an-introduction-to-expected-weighted-on-base-average-xwoba-29d6070ba52b

 

A really good read and helps explain. In short though, ground balls are much easier to predict what will happen based on exit velocity and angle because there's fewer Xfactors in play, fly balls have higher error margins, due to wind, sea level changes, long or short porches etc.

[Ray]

This is so insane to me, as someone who's been watching Lourdes Gurriel swing at everything since 2018:

 

2021 1st half: 3.83% BB%, 20.13 K%

2021 2nd half: 10.8% BB%, 15.3% K%

 

He's almost tripled his walk rate in the 2nd half.

 

Also:

 

[BigCecil]

This is so insane to me, as someone who's been watching Lourdes Gurriel swing at everything since 2018:

 

2021 1st half: 3.83% BB%, 20.13 K%

2021 2nd half: 10.8% BB%, 15.3% K%

 

He's almost tripled his walk rate in the 2nd half.

 

Also:

 

 

The correlation between what he swings at and what he produces is so obvious. Good for him for improving his pitch selection. We all knew he had it in him.

[max silver]

This is so insane to me, as someone who's been watching Lourdes Gurriel swing at everything since 2018:

 

2021 1st half: 3.83% BB%, 20.13 K%

2021 2nd half: 10.8% BB%, 15.3% K%

 

He's almost tripled his walk rate in the 2nd half.

 

Also:

 

 

Now we just need Bo to do the same thing.

 

It would be very interesting to see a breakdown of his plate discipline metrics over this timeframe as well. Overall for the season his chase percentages aren't really much different compared to previous years, but I bet the chase rates have improved markedly during his sustained hot streak.

[Orgfiller]

Now we just need Bo to do the same thing.

 

It would be very interesting to see a breakdown of his plate discipline metrics over this timeframe as well. Overall for the season his chase percentages aren't really much different compared to previous years, but I bet the chase rates have improved markedly during his sustained hot streak.

 

Bo with his free swinger tendencies is still a 4 win player so honestly he doesn't even need to change a thing to be extremely valuable. Obviously he's young and there's always room for improvement but he can pretty much do whatever he wants even if it's the same as now, the results are there and the projections believe in him.

[Laika]

Bo with his free swinger tendencies is still a 4 win player so honestly he doesn't even need to change a thing to be extremely valuable. Obviously he's young and there's always room for improvement but he can pretty much do whatever he wants even if it's the same as now, the results are there and the projections believe in him.

 

It's also not a given that a more selective or patient Bo would be better. If it ain't broke...

 

And more generally - lineup diversity might be a thing. It probably helps to have a guy or two who don't sit and wait, particularly when facing pitchers with great command (you'll just fall behind and/or strikeout looking).

[Dick_Pole]

So I just found this page on BR which I find to be an absolute delight. Especially since they estimate a higher percentage to the Jays than the Fangraph's site:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2021-playoff-odds.shtml

 

Yankees' page gives me great pleasure as well:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2021-playoff-odds.shtml

[max silver]

Bo with his free swinger tendencies is still a 4 win player so honestly he doesn't even need to change a thing to be extremely valuable. Obviously he's young and there's always room for improvement but he can pretty much do whatever he wants even if it's the same as now, the results are there and the projections believe in him.

 

Bo has great contact skills to there's no concern with his k rates, but I have a hard time thinking that he wouldn't be well served to develop a little better plate discipline. He's constantly behind 0-2 due to his extremely aggressive tendencies, and despite a good two strike approach he would be far better off if he were able to lay off of more bad pitches and him himself in more hitters counts. It's a true testament that he's able to still produce a 118 WRC+ despite being in the top 10 in swinging at pitches off the plate, but I'd love to see what he could do with any kind of improvement in selectivity. I really think the key for him to fully unlock his potential at the plate is going to be forcing pitchers to give him more pitches on the plate that he can do damage with. I'd rather see him have hit his ceiling which is more like MVP caliber player rather than being capped at 4 or 5 win player he likely will continue to be if he continues hacking away.

 

I looked up Gurriel's plate discipline numbers for the first two months of the season vs from June 1 and onward, and he's made a dramatic improvement in swinging at pitches off of the plate. He's improved from swinging at 41% of pitches off the plate earlier on to a more manageable 34% during his hot streak. During this period he's basically doubled with WRC+ for the later period compared to earlier, as the first two months his WRC+ was only 78, vs 143 for June 1 and onward. That's a rather powerful suggestion of how much it can improve a players outcomes at the plate when they stop swinging at everything that comes their way.

[Olerud363]

https://technology.mlblogs.com/an-introduction-to-expected-weighted-on-base-average-xwoba-29d6070ba52b

 

A really good read and helps explain. In short though, ground balls are much easier to predict what will happen based on exit velocity and angle because there's fewer Xfactors in play, fly balls have higher error margins, due to wind, sea level changes, long or short porches etc.

 

Do any of these stats assume the direction of the ball may not be random. A guy who pulls ground balls but evenly distributes fly balls may not be as good as a guy who evenly distributes ground balls but pulls fly balls.

 

They shift on the former guy and catch his fly balls to center.

 

If I owned a team I'd put a few hundred grand into a hitting lab and their only job would be to figure out if there is a hitting approach that is unshiftable... maybe they wouldn't come up with anything or maybe it's just obvious that over 100 years they've already optimized hitting approach, but man... all the ground balls are pulled. You look at any guy and the pull ground ball rate is way higher.

[Olerud363]

Do any of these stats assume the direction of the ball may not be random. A guy who pulls ground balls but evenly distributes fly balls may not be as good as a guy who evenly distributes ground balls but pulls fly balls.

 

They shift on the former guy and catch his fly balls to center.

 

If I owned a team I'd put a few hundred grand into a hitting lab and their only job would be to figure out if there is a hitting approach that is unshiftable... maybe they wouldn't come up with anything or maybe it's just obvious that over 100 years they've already optimized hitting approach, but man... all the ground balls are pulled. You look at any guy and the pull ground ball rate is way higher.

 

Probably one of my stupider posts and that is saying something. Lots of money and time in MLB and some dumb owner I am sure already said "Hey, if we could stop the guys from pulling the ground balls, it would be super-money ball', and they can't stop the guys from pulling the ground balls, without making something else worse, or they would of already done it.

 

Though, even Buck and Tabby think they don't have to pull the ground balls.

 

Buck - 'All he has to do is hit a little ground ball the other way and he's got a base hit'

Pat - 'I can tell you if I was still playing I'd have loved it if they gave me a free hit. I didn't get very many you know'

Buck - 'Except with the bases loaded.'

Pat - (Laughing)

[Laika]

So I just found this page on BR which I find to be an absolute delight. Especially since they estimate a higher percentage to the Jays than the Fangraph's site:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2021-playoff-odds.shtml

 

Yankees' page gives me great pleasure as well:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2021-playoff-odds.shtml

 

peep the Yankees odds on August 27th

[BigCecil]

Am I drinking my own bath water in thinking our pen looks pretty good now? Got some V on the right side and if Borucki has found it he adds a tougher lefty. Pearson and Merryweather juxtaposed against Richards change and Cimber funkiness. Soria still has decent stuff and crafty. Lots of looks. Thornton is gone again which is good news.