General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[AMS528]

I remember when we're talking about a Ray extension being like 3/48 and if that was reasonable.

 

Are we now at like double that? Is 5/80 now at least what he's looking at?

[Inklink]

Someone's gonna throw stupid money at him!

[Jimcanuck]

lol... so 200 innings of Ace doesn't do it for ya. He hasn't regressed at all, if anything looks better going forward.

 

lol, yer dumn

[Orgfiller]

BABIP against and HR/FB a fair bit below his career average. I'll go with it more being luck than skill change.

 

He's almost definitely outperforming his ERA but this is a moronic take. His HR/FB% is 15.5% after today's start and his career HR/FB% is...15.5%. He's also sporting the lowest BB rate in his career by a mile and a half over 150 innings so to say he's been more lucky than making legitimate skill changes is absurd. He might not be an ace but he's looking like an excellent #2/low tier #1 starter.

 

I guess he could be getting lucky in having such good command and he'll regress closer to career averages going forward, but to stake this season's performance on luck rather than actually excellent pitching is not it.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Re-sign Ray

Re-sign Semien

Sign Syndergaard

Trade for Ramirez

 

Sign 2, or even 3 decent to great relievers like Givens, Neris, Graveman, Hudson, Loup, Tepera

 

That'd be one hell of a team.

[Spanky99]

lol, yer dumn

 

Heh!

[Terminator]

Re-sign Ray

Re-sign Semien

Sign Syndergaard

Trade for Ramirez

 

Sign 2, or even 3 decent to great relievers like Givens, Neris, Graveman, Hudson, Loup, Tepera

 

That'd be one hell of a team.

 

Yep, let's shove the chips in and go for it.

[Spanky99]

He's almost definitely outperforming his ERA but this is a moronic take. His HR/FB% is 15.5% after today's start and his career HR/FB% is...15.5%. He's also sporting the lowest BB rate in his career by a mile and a half over 150 innings so to say he's been more lucky than making legitimate skill changes is absurd. He might not be an ace but he's looking like an excellent #2/low tier #1 starter.

 

I guess he could be getting lucky in having such good command and he'll regress closer to career averages going forward, but to stake this season's performance on luck rather than actually excellent pitching is not it.

 

Thank you, yes, an incredibly stupid comment.

[Jimcanuck]

He's almost definitely outperforming his ERA but this is a moronic take. His HR/FB% is 15.5% after today's start and his career HR/FB% is...15.5%. He's also sporting the lowest BB rate in his career by a mile and a half over 150 innings so to say he's been more lucky than making legitimate skill changes is absurd. He might not be an ace but he's looking like an excellent #2/low tier #1 starter.

 

I guess he could be getting lucky in having such good command and he'll regress closer to career averages going forward, but to stake this season's performance on luck rather than actually excellent pitching is not it.

 

Not sure where you are getting your numbers from. Fangraphs has his 2021 HR/FB at 9.2%, after previous 5 seasons of 15.1%, 14.7%, 13.7%, 14.8%, 15.4%.

 

You agree he will regress, the only difference of opinion is the scale. Seems I am expecting him to regress more than you, that's all. Not sure how that is a "moronic take".

[max silver]

Not sure where you are getting your numbers from. Fangraphs has his 2021 HR/FB at 9.2%, after previous 5 seasons of 15.1%, 14.7%, 13.7%, 14.8%, 15.4%.

 

You agree he will regress, the only difference of opinion is the scale. Seems I am expecting him to regress more than you, that's all. Not sure how that is a "moronic take".

 

I think Orgfiller is referencing Ray's numbers this season and may be thinking you were saying Ray is due to regress due to having been lucky rather than having gone through a change of skill.

 

I think that Gausman may be benefiting a bit from the deadened baseball this season, but that would be true of basically every pitcher in baseball so that shouldn't diminish the value of his contributions relative to his peers. His xERA is close to a full run higher than his actual, but even so an xERA of 3.3 and xFIP of 3.4 both indicate that Gausman is an excellent pitcher now and should continue this going forward. I think he may actually get paid more than Ray in free agency as he has been performing at this new higher level of performance since the 2020 season vs Ray who has only turned things around in 2021.

[BigCecil]

Just listening now to Liam Hendriks interview on Baseball Central pod from yesterday. What a great interview he is. Confirmed Jays were seriously in on him. Also how he approaches leverage. Pretty cool what he turned himself into.

[Jimcanuck]

Thank you, yes, an incredibly stupid comment.

 

As I said, yer dumn. And I'm not speaking of your baseball acumen.

[Krylian]

Yep, let's shove the chips in and go for it.

 

Isn't that what AA did and he got castrated for it?

[Orgfiller]

Not sure where you are getting your numbers from. Fangraphs has his 2021 HR/FB at 9.2%, after previous 5 seasons of 15.1%, 14.7%, 13.7%, 14.8%, 15.4%.

 

You agree he will regress, the only difference of opinion is the scale. Seems I am expecting him to regress more than you, that's all. Not sure how that is a "moronic take".

 

My bad, I thought you were talking about Robbie Ray. For what it's worth Gausman's projections all buy him as having changed his skill level and if you count last season he's been putting up 200 consecutive innings of high level pitching far beyond his previous career averages.

[max silver]

My bad, I thought you were talking about Robbie Ray. For what it's worth Gausman's projections all buy him as having changed his skill level and if you count last season he's been putting up 200 consecutive innings of high level pitching far beyond his previous career averages.

 

This seems like a pretty honest mistake. I find Ray and Gausman are both interesting case studies in how to effectively turn your career around. If the Jays aren't able to bring Ray back I think Gausman would be my preferred second target as a relatively young starter who should provide close to ace level performance moving forward. I just wish they would have been a little more aggressive with their offer last offseason, he looked like a legit top of the rotation starter to me after his 2020 turnaround.

[saskjayfan]

This seems like a pretty honest mistake. I find Ray and Gausman are both interesting case studies in how to effectively turn your career around. If the Jays aren't able to bring Ray back I think Gausman would be my preferred second target as a relatively young starter who should provide close to ace level performance moving forward. I just wish they would have been a little more aggressive with their offer last offseason, he looked like a legit top of the rotation starter to me after his 2020 turnaround.

 

The Giants have a ton of money to spend next season. It's hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn't re-sign with the Giants.

[Laika]

Gausman has been bad/mediocre since the break. Giants fans are pissed at him lol. Showing some signs of his old self.

[Stangstag]

Just listening now to Liam Hendriks interview on Baseball Central pod from yesterday. What a great interview he is. Confirmed Jays were seriously in on him. Also how he approaches leverage. Pretty cool what he turned himself into.

 

Ahh if only we were able to sign him. Imagine what could have been... although IDK if that was before or after the Semien signing. Maybe if we sign Hendricks that would have meant no Semien.

[BigCecil]

Ahh if only we were able to sign him. Imagine what could have been... although IDK if that was before or after the Semien signing. Maybe if we sign Hendricks that would have meant no Semien.

 

3 years 18mm AAV for reliever is against the DNA of Shatkins/Rogers. There is merit to that. Need a happy medium.

 

OTOH Hendriks is a durable workhorse striking out 14/9 and that would sure be useful in our pen. The f***ing Sox also have Kimbrel. Embarrassment of riches.

[The_DH]

3 years 18mm AAV for reliever is against the DNA of Shatkins/Rogers. There is merit to that. Need a happy medium.

 

OTOH Hendriks is a durable workhorse striking out 14/9 and that would sure be useful in our pen. The f***ing Sox also have Kimbrel. Embarrassment of riches.

 

Better to spend 5+ million on an injured reliever?

[Jimcanuck]

My bad, I thought you were talking about Robbie Ray. For what it's worth Gausman's projections all buy him as having changed his skill level and if you count last season he's been putting up 200 consecutive innings of high level pitching far beyond his previous career averages.

 

The question though is whether he is a good FA target. What he gets offered will likely have some regression baked in, but I still think what he ends up getting this offseason will have bad signing written all over it. Just my opinion.

[G-Snarls]

Gausman has been bad/mediocre since the break. Giants fans are pissed at him lol. Showing some signs of his old self.

 

Is Robbie Ray now officially the best best 1 year free agent SP contract signed for 2021?

[AMS528]

Is Robbie Ray now officially the best best 1 year free agent SP contract signed for 2021?

 

With a strong finish to the season and a top three CY Young result he's probably one of the best one year free agent SP signings in the past decade.

[wilko]

Is Robbie Ray now officially the best best 1 year free agent SP contract signed for 2021?

 

Yes.

[King]

Would anyone be down for a March Madness style "Hottest Blue Jay" contest in the offseason, with polls?

[BTS]

Would anyone be down for a March Madness style "Hottest Blue Jay" contest in the offseason, with polls?

 

Please include Charles (for the hilarity) and Shapiro (because I think he could make some noise).

[King]

Please include Charles (for the hilarity) and Shapiro (because I think he could make some noise).

 

Noted. Down to include the year ending 40 man roster + FO staff/coaching, and maybe top 10 prospects.

 

Kinda want to run this now TBH lol

[Brownie19]

Is Robbie Ray now officially the best best 1 year free agent SP contract signed for 2021?

 

Carlos Rodon is right up there with him. Lower FIP, xFIP, xERA and higher K/9 & fWAR - but has thrown 40 fewer innings.

[BTS]

Carlos Rodon is right up there with him. Lower FIP, xFIP, xERA and higher K/9 & fWAR - but has thrown 40 fewer innings.

 

There were a lot of really good 1-year FA deals for starters last offseason: Ray, Rodon, Gausman, DesClafani, Morton, Waino.

[TheHurl]

Noted. Down to include the year ending 40 man roster + FO staff/coaching, and maybe top 10 prospects.

 

Kinda want to run this now TBH lol

 

Get it to full 64. Only question is do we seed or pure random draw.