Blue Jays sign George Springer to a 6 year, $150M deal

[Carlos Danger]

Mets are constrained by luxury tax considerations. Cohen may be rich, but he ain't stupid.

 

They have extra money to play with this year at least due to Cano.

[gruber92]

Any top free agent is going to come with angst on the back end of his year. You don't think a 300 mil deal for Lindor doesn't come with a few scary years at the back end of the deal? DJL is a year older than Springer and looking for a 5 year deal. 6 for Springer and 5 for DJL comes with the same risk. If you think DJL is a better fit and the AAV is lower then go that direction. There are multiple paths for the Jays to improve their team. Any of these paths will involve a risky contract.

 

I'd rather take on the back end of a Lindor deal for the simple fact that it's a lot longer away. Stud SS for the next 10 years with the first 7 being performed at an elite level with the last three most likely being a bit above average sounds better than signing Springer through years 31-36/37 where you'll most likely get 3 years of the current product, sounds better to me, regardless of asset losses.

[Jays24]

Sid Sexiero went on and on the other day saying it is just money, why do Jays fans care? WELL Jays will only raise their payroll so much. If you spend $150 million on a pplayer that $$$ is not available elsewhere. Seems pretty straight forward.

 

Then went on a rant that Springer would be the best Jay since DOC

 

LOL, not a great take that a 31 year old will age well enough to be a better player than Bautista, EE, Josh.

 

Saw that too much. Usually love Tim and sid but that take was so cringe lol.

[THANOS]

I'd rather take on the back end of a Lindor deal for the simple fact that it's a lot longer away. Stud SS for the next 10 years with the first 7 being performed at an elite level with the last three most likely being a bit above average sounds better than signing Springer through years 31-36/37 where you'll most likely get 3 years of the current product, sounds better to me, regardless of asset losses.

 

Could also really front-load a Lindor deal and pay him 40M for the 1st few years and drop it down once you're ready to pay Bo, Vlad, Nate, etc.

[saskjayfan]

I really didn't even like the idea of Springer a couple months ago. Then I kind of warmed up to the idea and the possible fits. Now I think I just want to land him because everyone in the entire baseball world believes he will go to Mets. All these people are probably right, but the shock value of landing Springer would be fantastic. I'm not getting my hopes up, but if we overpaid and got him I won't be bothered by what we had to pay to get him.

[xposbrad]

I really didn't even like the idea of Springer a couple months ago. Then I kind of warmed up to the idea and the possible fits. Now I think I just want to land him because everyone in the entire baseball world believes he will go to Mets. All these people are probably right, but the shock value of landing Springer would be fantastic. I'm not getting my hopes up, but if we overpaid and got him I won't be bothered by what we had to pay to get him.

 

If he signs for 150m, it will be very hard for a team to make value on that. The Mets are prepared to overspend, but Springer in his first year, is not bringing a WS to this team. So, how valuable will Springer be in years 2-5 or 2-6? He's projected for about 3.8fWAR this year. Is that worth it to pay him 30m given Covid? The mets have the rotation to do it, the Blue Jays don't. I just don't think he's the player you overpay for given his age right now. You won't be bothered but this team isn't the Yankees with a 215m payroll, so I am not sure what you would be so excited about.

[saskjayfan]

If he signs for 150m, it will be very hard for a team to make value on that. The Mets are prepared to overspend, but Springer in his first year, is not bringing a WS to this team. So, how valuable will Springer be in years 2-5 or 2-6? He's projected for about 3.8fWAR this year. Is that worth it to pay him 30m given Covid? The mets have the rotation to do it, the Blue Jays don't. I just don't think he's the player you overpay for given his age right now. You won't be bothered but this team isn't the Yankees with a 215m payroll, so I am not sure what you would be so excited about.

 

Springer is a 5 plus win player who derives most of his value with his bat. He was on pace for 6 plus wins last year. The previous year he put up 6.5 wins in 122 games. Why can't Springer bring us a WS next year? Even if we signed him our payroll would still be under 100 million. We don't have to be the Yankees. We just have to be the Jays circa 2015 and 2016. The Jays had one of their highest payrolls in 2016 and probably made their most money in that season. There's a business case for spending money at this point. We are a really good team.

 

We don't stop at Springer. Kluber, Paxton, Walker, Odorizzi, Rosenthal, Hand, Hendriks, McGee, Yates...maybe JTR, DJL.

 

There's zero reason this team couldn't spend 150 to 160 million dollars. The money will be there from Rogers. They are just expecting results if they payroll goes there. It takes some balls to make the moves. Everything that has come out of Shapiro's mouth suggests he's going to make a splash.

 

You value hunters are going to be complaining about some deal. Some were complaining about Ryu and 4 and 80 being too much.

[G-Snarls]

Why can't Springer bring us a WS next year

 

Just need to invest in a TV and some new trash cans for Roger's Centre

 

Jk

 

FWIW he seemed to be one of the ones who didn't really benefit from the cheating. Springer actually hit better on the road in 2017 and 2019 than he did at home)

Edited December 31, 2020 by G-Snarls

[max silver]

Springer is a 5 plus win player who derives most of his value with his bat. He was on pace for 6 plus wins last year. The previous year he put up 6.5 wins in 122 games. Why can't Springer bring us a WS next year? Even if we signed him our payroll would still be under 100 million. We don't have to be the Yankees. We just have to be the Jays circa 2015 and 2016. The Jays had one of their highest payrolls in 2016 and probably made their most money in that season. There's a business case for spending money at this point. We are a really good team.

 

We don't stop at Springer. Kluber, Paxton, Walker, Odorizzi, Rosenthal, Hand, Hendriks, McGee, Yates...maybe JTR, DJL.

 

There's zero reason this team couldn't spend 150 to 160 million dollars. The money will be there from Rogers. They are just expecting results if they payroll goes there. It takes some balls to make the moves. Everything that has come out of Shapiro's mouth suggests he's going to make a splash.

 

You value hunters are going to be complaining about some deal. Some were complaining about Ryu and 4 and 80 being too much.

 

I say if it takes 6 years to sign Springer you hold your nose and get it done. Perhaps you can structure the contract so that the last year or 2 are a bit lower in salary to help fit arbitration raises for the youngsters into the budget. Springer has had the best two offensive seasons of his career (admittedly in a shorter than usual season in 2020) so he seems to have gotten better at the plate in his late 20's. The moment he were to sign with the Jays he becomes their best player, and would likely continue to be their best player for a year or two going forward.

[Jays24]

As long as the AAV is 25 mill per, 6 years is probably what's it going to take for us to get him over the Mets. Anything more than 6/150, I can't see it happening.

[Laika]

ZiPS thinks he should get like 5/100 for what it's worth... 125 would already be a reasonable "overpay". I don't disagree that Toronto might need to approach 6/150 but I'd avoid that contract.

 

The basic plan of the offseason needs to be to wait it out and exercise financial leverage later. Toronto has roster flexibility so it honestly doesn't matter who they add on the position side - they can just take who falls to them. Treat it like an auction draft where you have the most money but where money also carries over.

[Brownie19]

If he signs for 150m, it will be very hard for a team to make value on that. The Mets are prepared to overspend, but Springer in his first year, is not bringing a WS to this team. So, how valuable will Springer be in years 2-5 or 2-6? He's projected for about 3.8fWAR this year. Is that worth it to pay him 30m given Covid? The mets have the rotation to do it, the Blue Jays don't. I just don't think he's the player you overpay for given his age right now. You won't be bothered but this team isn't the Yankees with a 215m payroll, so I am not sure what you would be so excited about.

 

for f*** sakes man.

[Spanky99]

 

You value hunters are going to be complaining about some deal. Some were complaining about Ryu and 4 and 80 being too much.

 

Your post was going well until, you said this... you were adamant Toronto wasn't going to sign Ryu, and complained about our FO up until he signed, IIRC.

[saskjayfan]

Your post was going well until, you said this... you were adamant Toronto wasn't going to sign Ryu, and complained about our FO up until he signed, IIRC.

 

You're right. They shocked me when they signed Ryu. That's why I have some hope and faith that they will spend uncomfortable money to sign a free agent that many on here will say that's too much for that guy! I absolutely hated the Roark signing. Signing Ryu was a turning point of sorts. My faith in management took a u-turn last year. I can't complain about the moves they made at the deadline last year either. I actually liked the Ray signing. We'll see what they do the rest of the off season.

[max silver]

You're right. They shocked me when they signed Ryu. That's why I have some hope and faith that they will spend uncomfortable money to sign a free agent that many on here will say that's too much for that guy! I absolutely hated the Roark signing. Signing Ryu was a turning point of sorts. My faith in management took a u-turn last year. I can't complain about the moves they made at the deadline last year either. I actually liked the Ray signing. We'll see what they do the rest of the off season.

 

For the most part I was pretty happy with the moves that were made under the reasoning of pushing the club towards contention, and then obtaining reinforcements at the deadline. Walker and Ray were both very nice under the radar acquisitions, the only spot where I thought the club really struck out at last years trade deadline was with the Jonathan Villar pickup. It was a weird pickup as he was a player who was in the midst of a really bad season, and then he managed to play even worse with Toronto. His sloppy defensive play and haphazard baserunning actively decreased the club's chance of winning every time he saw the field. In only 78 total plate appearances he managed to accumulate a pukeworthy -0.3 WAR. The really scary fact was that Brandon Drury and Reese McGuire somehow managed to perform even worse.

[Brownie19]

For the most part I was pretty happy with the moves that were made under the reasoning of pushing the club towards contention, and then obtaining reinforcements at the deadline. Walker and Ray were both very nice under the radar acquisitions, the only spot where I thought the club really struck out at last years trade deadline was with the Jonathan Villar pickup. It was a weird pickup as he was a player who was in the midst of a really bad season, and then he managed to play even worse with Toronto. His sloppy defensive play and haphazard baserunning actively decreased the club's chance of winning every time he saw the field. In only 78 total plate appearances he managed to accumulate a pukeworthy -0.3 WAR. The really scary fact was that Brandon Drury and Reese McGuire somehow managed to perform even worse.

 

It was the FO trying to capture lightning in a bottle man. Villar was coming off a 24/40 season. If a playoff race sparked a turn around, he had the potential to be a game changer. You can't be disappointed at the FO because the move failed. Those moves are going to fail more than they succeed.

[max silver]

It was the FO trying to capture lightning in a bottle man. Villar was coming off a 24/40 season. If a playoff race sparked a turn around, he had the potential to be a game changer. You can't be disappointed at the FO because the move failed. Those moves are going to fail more than they succeed.

 

Villar really didn't do anything right in 2020, the trade just seemed doomed to fail. Villar put up career worst exit velocities and barrel percentage, as well as having suffered a rather substantial amount of sprint speed. Without producing value on the bases Villar loses much of his overall value on the baseball field. Combine a player who was having a far below average season at the plate and sprinkle in a smattering of defensive miscues and you are left with a terrible baseball player. Part of what bugs me so much is that I thought that Griffin Conine was one of the Jays more interesting outfield prospects, flawed for sure but still with some plus tools.

[Brownie19]

Villar really didn't do anything right in 2020, the trade just seemed doomed to fail. Villar put up career worst exit velocities and barrel percentage, as well as having suffered a rather substantial amount of sprint speed. Without producing value on the bases Villar loses much of his overall value on the baseball field. Combine a player who was having a far below average season at the plate and sprinkle in a smattering of defensive miscues and you are left with a terrible baseball player. Part of what bugs me so much is that I thought that Griffin Conine was one of the Jays more interesting outfield prospects, flawed for sure but still with some plus tools.

 

I think you should look into the term "capturing lightning in a bottle"

[Spanky99]

I think you should look into the term "capturing lightning in a bottle"

 

Exactly, Bo was hurt and they needed depth, nothing wrong with that trade even in hindsight.

[max silver]

I think you should look into the term "capturing lightning in a bottle"

 

I'm familiar with the idea, but typically when you make a trade of that nature you aren't giving up an actual prospect, it's more of an org guy that gets shipped out. Maybe Conine ends up being an org guy in a few years, but I don't think it was necessary to throw him away in a trade with a high risk of completely failing. One of the major weaknesses in the Jays minor league system is the lack of good outfield prospects, sending out one of the few interesting players they had for a month of a backup shortstop seemed short sighted.

 

If the front office thought Villar was a good fit for the club they could have had him for free at the waiver deadline the at the previous waiver deadline, they didn't need to give up an asset to acquire a month of a player having the worst season of his career up to that point. Reports out of Miami were that Marlins management was happy to be rid of Villar due to selfish play as he was making a lot of boneheaded forced mistakes on the field, and that continued after the trade. The Jays were working hard to clean up the unforced errors on the basepaths, and Villar came in and instantly started running into outs on the bases with reckless mistakes.

[Spanky99]

I'm familiar with the idea, but typically when you make a trade of that nature you aren't giving up an actual prospect, it's more of an org guy that gets shipped out. Maybe Conine ends up being an org guy in a few years, but I don't think it was necessary to throw him away in a trade with a high risk of completely failing. One of the major weaknesses in the Jays minor league system is the lack of good outfield prospects, sending out one of the few interesting players they had for a month of a backup shortstop seemed short sighted.

 

If the front office thought Villar was a good fit for the club they could have had him for free at the waiver deadline the at the previous waiver deadline, they didn't need to give up an asset to acquire a month of a player having the worst season of his career up to that point. Reports out of Miami were that Marlins management was happy to be rid of Villar due to selfish play as he was making a lot of boneheaded forced mistakes on the field, and that continued after the trade. The Jays were working hard to clean up the unforced errors on the basepaths, and Villar came in and instantly started running into outs on the bases with reckless mistakes.

 

You're sure making a lot of noise over a guy the team needed, for a guy that might not be anything. I have hopes for Conine still, but obviously our FO feel different, and that was the best they could get for immediate help. Villar was like what 25 gms or so from a 4 Win season? Good trade. Also, the FO likely sees them as grabbing a Conine in FA for peanuts as well.

[Brownie19]

Oh - you think Conine is a prospect. Identifying the issue is always half the battle.

[max silver]

Oh - you think Conine is a prospect. Identifying the issue is always half the battle.

 

Griffin Conine is the number 18 prospect on the Marlin's top 30 according to MLB pipeline. Not a top 10 can't miss prospect by any means, but a prospect nonetheless.

[Jimcanuck]

Griffin Conine is the number 18 prospect on the Marlin's top 30 according to MLB pipeline. Not a top 10 can't miss prospect by any means, but a prospect nonetheless.

 

23 yrs old with a 36% K rate in A ball in 2019. Prospect label fits rather loosely.

[Spanky99]

Griffin Conine is the number 18 prospect on the Marlin's top 30 according to MLB pipeline. Not a top 10 can't miss prospect by any means, but a prospect nonetheless.

 

Conine a 40 FV @ 23 having played A ball over-aged...

 

Conine looked like a sure first round pick after an exceptional 2017 sophomore year and subsequent wood-powered summer on Cape Cod. During his .330/.406/.537 tear on the Cape, he started to strike out more often. That carried into his junior year at Duke in very concerning fashion, as his strikeout rate spiked from 16% the year before to a whopping 26%, a rate that most teams consider a red flag, putting hitters on the wrong side of binary hit tool evaluation. The strikeouts continued in Low-A but, boy, does Conine have mood-altering power. His exit velos and hard hit rate were on par with Yordan Alvarez's last year, though Conine is older than Alvarez and played several levels below him. This performance -- .283/.371/.576 with 22 homers, 19 doubles, and a 36% strikeout rate -- came in just 80 games because Conine was popped for PED's (ritalinic acid, a stimulant) and served a 50-game suspension to start 2019. He has 35-plus homer power if he hits enough, but typically guys who strike out this much don't.

 

He's a lotto ticket nothing else, high bust, ceiling. What's to argue, these guys are everywhere in the minors.

[connorp]

23 yrs old with a 36% K rate in A ball in 2019. Prospect label fits rather loosely.

 

11% walk rate though so can’t really label him a hopeless hacker. He swings a big stick/takes some big cuts. I’m partial to the power guys admittedly

[Spanky99]

11% walk rate though so can’t really label him a hopeless hacker. He swings a big stick/takes some big cuts. I’m partial to the power guys admittedly

 

Lotto ticket... if he keeps that OBP through graduation he gets sexier, if his K% rises he's a dud. Something lies between.

[max silver]

Conine a 40 FV @ 23 having played A ball over-aged...

 

 

 

He's a lotto ticket nothing else, high bust, ceiling. What's to argue, these guys are everywhere in the minors.

 

The Robbie Ray trade was a good example of a "lightning in a bottle" trade done right. Travis Bergen was the return, a 27 year old with mediocre stuff whose likely ceiling was middle reliever if everything clicked for him.

 

You can argue Conine was a bit overage for A ball but if I'm not mistaken he was about 21 to start the season in Lansing in 2019, a little old but nothing crazy. He still managed to club 22 home runs in only 80 games and produced a 169 WRC+. With a profile that likely fits nicely in right field if he can get the strikeouts under control he can be a productive major league outfielder. This is in very short supply in the Jays system. For what it's worth MLB Pipeline views Conine as a 45 FV prospect.

 

Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)

 

Hit

45

Power

55

Run

40

Arm

60

Field

50

Overall

45

 

The son of two-time All-Star Jeff Conine, Griffin hit a circuit-best nine homers in the Cape Cod League in 2017 and then added 18 more as a Duke junior in 2018. Drafted in the second round that June by the Blue Jays, he was suspended for the first 50 games of 2019 after testing positive for Ritalin but still led the low Class A Midwest League in homers (22) and slugging (.576). He joined the club, with which his father won two World Series and became known as Mr. Marlin this September, as the player to be named in a trade that sent Jonathan Villar to Toronto.

 

Conine is capable of driving the ball out of the park to all fields by using a combination of bat speed, physical strength and the loft he generates with his left-handed swing. Blue Jays officials considered his raw power the best in their system, though his propensity to swing and miss is a concern and he doesn’t always use his baseball IQ to think through the counts he’s in. He's at his best when he lets his power come naturally but that doesn't happen as much as it should.

 

With his pop and his plus arm, Conine fits the traditional right-field profile. Though he has below-average speed, he covers enough ground to get the job done on an outfield corner. He has plus arm strength, with an arm that is fun to watch in the outfield. He has below-average speed but gets around the ball well enough at his position to be a right fielder in the long term. He'll be nearly 24 when Minor League play resumes in 2021, so Miami will look to expedite his development.

 

I would have been fine with giving up an actual prospect for a returning player who wasn't a short term rental and mired in a super deep slump.

[Spanky99]

The Robbie Ray trade was a good example of a "lightning in a bottle" trade done right. Travis Bergen was the return, a 27 year old with mediocre stuff whose likely ceiling was middle reliever if everything clicked for him.

 

You can argue Conine was a bit overage for A ball but if I'm not mistaken he was about 21 to start the season in Lansing in 2019, a little old but nothing crazy. He still managed to club 22 home runs in only 80 games and produced a 169 WRC+. With a profile that likely fits nicely in right field if he can get the strikeouts under control he can be a productive major league outfielder. This is in very short supply in the Jays system. For what it's worth MLB Pipeline views Conine as a 45 FV prospect.

 

 

 

I would have been fine with giving up an actual prospect for a returning player who wasn't a short term rental and mired in a super deep slump.

 

Wow... lol. Same s***, different pile.

 

BA and BP have different FV and outcomes, everyone is high bust, high ceiling, it's a lottery ticket bud, as I've said.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Spanky99

[L54]

Griffin Conine is a weird hill to die on