Around Baseball 2021

[Masterbather]

Bro, Vlad has Jays on his shoulder fighting the Red Sox and Yankees down the stretch for all eyes to see..MVP

 

The only chance I really see for Vladdy is if he goes ballistic in the three-game series against the Yankees because the eyes of the baseball world will be on that series. Not that they're not paying attention now but everyone will actually be watching those games. Ohtani also has to remain relatively cool until the end.

[G-Snarls]

Cardinals have won 8 in a row after sweeping the Padres

 

Jake Arietta gave up 5 runs in 0.1 IP and the Padres are now only 3 games over ,500

[BTS]

Cardinals have won 8 in a row after sweeping the Padres

 

Jake Arietta gave up 5 runs in 0.1 IP and the Padres are now only 3 games over ,500

 

They really should address their Eric Hosmer problem in the offseason. He's a sunk cost, and running him out there everyday to provide replacement level play at 1B isn't viable.

[TwistedLogic]

[TheHurl]

They really should address their Eric Hosmer problem in the offseason. He's a sunk cost, and running him out there everyday to provide replacement level play at 1B isn't viable.

 

1250 PA's to Caratini, Hosmer and Profar to provide -1.0 fWAR. 21.7% of your plate appearances to players which provide you zero value, you just can't do that in the NL where pitchers gave them another 260 PA's. Only 22 players had negative fWAR with over 300 PA's and the Padres had three of them. No one should keep their jobs there

[TheHurl]

Shane Baz time tonight.

[Laika]

1250 PA's to Caratini, Hosmer and Profar to provide -1.0 fWAR. 21.7% of your plate appearances to players which provide you zero value, you just can't do that in the NL where pitchers gave them another 260 PA's. Only 22 players had negative fWAR with over 300 PA's and the Padres had three of them. No one should keep their jobs there

 

Ah man if only the Padres were competently run and their handsome GM didn't purge most of their depth in an extended series of blockbuster trades.

 

It's only going to get worse for the Padres going forward, I think. Many of the assets they threw into the wind are yet to debut or mature into MLB players.

[Jimcanuck]

Preller's head must be getting close to the guillotine.

[Brownie19]

1250 PA's to Caratini, Hosmer and Profar to provide -1.0 fWAR. 21.7% of your plate appearances to players which provide you zero value, you just can't do that in the NL where pitchers gave them another 260 PA's. Only 22 players had negative fWAR with over 300 PA's and the Padres had three of them. No one should keep their jobs there

 

It doesn't help when Kim and Frasier are hitting like Ryan Goins either.

[BCZ]

f***in hate the new MLB website, so much more difficult to digest everything

[Spanky__99]

It doesn't help when Kim and Frasier are hitting like Ryan Goins either.

 

Adam Frazier? Goins shouldn't be put into the same sentence as a 3 Win player man, c'mon.

 

Edit: I see his numbers since going to the Padres are Goins like, my bad. lol

 

Still doesn't take away from his season though.

[TwistedLogic]

Serious question: If Fernando Tatis Jr. ever became available in trade with the condition that the acquiring team would have to take on 100% of the remaining salary, would you want the Blue Jays in on that or would you be too wary of the Stanton contract (young, injury-prone superstar with ~300M remaining).

[Laika]

Serious question: If Fernando Tatis Jr. ever became available in trade with the condition that the acquiring team would have to take on 100% of the remaining salary, would you want the Blue Jays in on that or would you be too wary of the Stanton contract (young, injury-prone superstar with ~300M remaining).

 

Yes, in a second.

 

a) Tatis is very different than Stanton, physically

Acquiring Stanton when he was 22/23 years old would have been pretty okay

[TheHurl]

It doesn't help when Kim and Frasier are hitting like Ryan Goins either.

 

Frasier is hitting closer to his projected wRC+ than the 135 wRC+ he had at the time of the trade. Overall Preller has put no one on his team in a place to succeed because he has zero options behind them...or he has no clue how to make his players more successful. Hosmer sitting against pitchers that can beat him with Sinker's or LHP on the mound would have probably brought some value from him. The only option in the entire organization that can play in the majors and play 1B are Wil Myers and Jake (they were needed elsewhere, although playing Jake at 1B and Kim at 2B would have probably netted similar results as playing Hosmer everyday). The options for depth in the OF were Jorge Mateo, Brian O'Grady and Tupacita Marcano. They were actually lucky to get a mostly full season out of Tommy Pham.

 

If the pitching injuries were the reason that they were losing games I'd be like "tough luck". For the most part they have managed their way through that though. Even if they say goodbye to every free agent and pick up none of the options they have for next year (Profar, Stammen, Melancon, Johnson and Marisnick)...they still have 41 players on the 40 man and $142M committed. They are at 2015 Blue Jays stage where this off season they may as well move the remaining young assets and try and piece it together.

[TheHurl]

Serious question: If Fernando Tatis Jr. ever became available in trade with the condition that the acquiring team would have to take on 100% of the remaining salary, would you want the Blue Jays in on that or would you be too wary of the Stanton contract (young, injury-prone superstar with ~300M remaining).

 

I'd give Vlad the Tatis contract and still trade for Tatis.

[Ray]

Preller's head must be getting close to the guillotine.

 

They just promoted him to President of Baseball Ops & extended him until 2026 in January 2021.

 

I don't think he's going anywhere, but I could see a total purge happening in the coaching staff (even though the fundamental issue with the Padres is it's roster).

[keggy]

Serious question: If Fernando Tatis Jr. ever became available in trade with the condition that the acquiring team would have to take on 100% of the remaining salary, would you want the Blue Jays in on that or would you be too wary of the Stanton contract (young, injury-prone superstar with ~300M remaining).

 

Every single executive in baseball with payroll flexibility makes that trade, and gives up huge talent on top of the money.

[Krylian]

Every single executive in baseball with payroll flexibility makes that trade, and gives up huge talent on top of the money.

 

And even if they don't have payroll flexibility, you make the trade and create flexibility later.

[jerb]

 

Marc Topkin

@TBTimes_Rays

 

#Rays have placed Andrew Kittredge, their best high-leverage reliever, on IL with neck tightness

[Laika]

Change the question then. Tell me when to "stop" i.e. tell me the point where the Tatis Jr. contract becomes so big you would not take it.

 

a) 13 yrs/$338.3M [26.02 AAV] (the current deal after 2021; under contract through his age 35 season.)

14 yrs/$420M [30.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 36)

c) 15 yrs/$450M [30.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 37)

d) 16 yrs/$480M [30.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 38)

e) 14 yrs/$490M [35.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 36)

f) 15 yrs/$525M [35.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 37)

[John_Havok]

Change the question then. Tell me when to "stop" i.e. tell me the point where the Tatis Jr. contract becomes so big you would not take it.

 

a) 13 yrs/$338.3M [26.02 AAV] (the current deal after 2021; under contract through his age 35 season.)

14 yrs/$420M [30.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 36)

c) 15 yrs/$450M [30.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 37)

d) 16 yrs/$480M [30.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 38)

e) 14 yrs/$490M [35.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 36)

f) 15 yrs/$525M [35.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 37)

 

It's a difficult question to answer. Any type of contract like that takes on enormous risk. However, I don't find any of those contracts to be entirely unpalatable for 1 main reason:

 

in 10 years, is 35 million per year the going rate for superstars, or will it be even higher with increasing revenues? One thing that we know we can predict is that contracts #'s always increase over time, but the variable is... how much?

 

Paying Tatis 35 million dollars per year 10 years from now may not be that big of a drain depending on where the $ per Win calculation is at that time - unless he's not playing at all due to catastrophic injury.

 

That said, I wouldn't give Vlad that much. He's going to be a beast when he's young, but his fall-off-a-cliff value point is going to come much earlier due to his body type and the fact that he has virtually no defensive value already, let alone in 10 years.

[TwistedLogic]

Change the question then. Tell me when to "stop" i.e. tell me the point where the Tatis Jr. contract becomes so big you would not take it.

 

a) 13 yrs/$338.3M [26.02 AAV] (the current deal after 2021; under contract through his age 35 season.)

14 yrs/$420M [30.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 36)

c) 15 yrs/$450M [30.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 37)

d) 16 yrs/$480M [30.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 38)

e) 14 yrs/$490M [35.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 36)

f) 15 yrs/$525M [35.00 AAV] (now under contract through age 37)

 

Honestly, I think A is my ceiling. I f***ing love Tatis and the idea of him batting next to his buddy Vladdy makes me salivate, but the package it would take to get him in the first place would already make me sick to my stomach. You're probably looking at a price tag of something like Bichette, Moreno and Martinez before even considering the dollars. I like Tatis but any realistic trade scenario involves taking on a huge injury risk and giving up multiple players that have a not-insignificant chance of becoming near or as good as him.

 

So yeah if I do pull the trigger on a Tatis trade, the current contract is probably the extent of how far I go, because in my opinion, it carries enough risk as it is.

 

Now if you were to invert your question and go backwards, meaning something like:

 

a) 13 years left on deal, starting when he's 23 years old (pre-2022)

12 years left on deal, starting when he's 24 years old (pre-2023)

c) 11 years left on deal, starting when he's 25 years old (pre-2024)

 

And so on. In that case, I probably still consider trading for him in the 2025 landscape. You're still getting some cheap years at the front-end, he's still relatively young, and while you've sacrificed a bunch of prime production, you also have a lot more data on his skillset and health.

 

When he's nearing in on Stanton's age when he was traded, that's when I become more hesitant of going for him at all.

[Laika]

Honestly, I think A is my ceiling. I f***ing love Tatis and the idea of him batting next to his buddy Vladdy makes me salivate, but the package it would take to get him in the first place would already make me sick to my stomach. You're probably looking at a price tag of something like Bichette, Moreno and Martinez before even considering the dollars. I like Tatis but any realistic trade scenario involves taking on a huge injury risk and giving up multiple players that have a not-insignificant chance of becoming near or as good as him.

 

So yeah if I do pull the trigger on a Tatis trade, the current contract is probably the extent of how far I go, because in my opinion, it carries enough risk as it is.

 

Now if you were to invert your question and go backwards, meaning something like:

 

a) 13 years left on deal, starting when he's 23 years old (pre-2022)

12 years left on deal, starting when he's 24 years old (pre-2023)

c) 11 years left on deal, starting when he's 25 years old (pre-2024)

 

And so on. In that case, I probably still consider trading for him in the 2025 landscape. You're still getting some cheap years at the front-end, he's still relatively young, and while you've sacrificed a bunch of prime production, you also have a lot more data on his skillset and health.

 

When he's nearing in on Stanton's age when he was traded, that's when I become more hesitant of going for him at all.

 

The hypothetical ignores the necessary trade. By the way, it would not take Bichette, Moreno, and Martinez; when teams trade for huge contracts they tend to give up low-end players and provide a bulk package of parts that might have fallen off their roster anyway. See the Stanton trade. The seller's primary motivation is getting out of the contract and there tends to be very little in terms of buyers who are willing to take on the money.

[TwistedLogic]

The hypothetical ignores the necessary trade. By the way, it would not take Bichette, Moreno, and Martinez; when teams trade for huge contracts they tend to give up low-end players and provide a bulk package of parts that might have fallen off their roster anyway. See the Stanton trade. The seller's primary motivation is getting out of the contract and there tends to be very little in terms of buyers who are willing to take on the money.

 

If we're ignoring the trade aspect, I go 15 years, 450M on Tatis. Easily. The NBA is about to get a $75B dollar TV deal. With the way things are moving these days, 30M in 2036 is not going to be a franchise-crippling amount.

 

When it comes to the trade itself, it's hard to draw from precedent here because I don't think a player of Tatis' calibre has ever been traded at this stage and with this contract, but I don't think you'd get him for just spare parts and lottery tickets.

 

Like obviously there's some background here with the Stanton and maybe even Arenado trades, but those trading organizations were absolute garbage fires. The Padres have question marks but they aren't nearly as pathetic as the Marlins and Rockies.

 

I truly believe that if Tatis was moved, it would be closer to what you see a max contract player being traded for in the NBA and it would still take a massive haul.

[Spanky__99]

Uhmm... this is just conjecture, he isn't getting traded. Neither is J-Ram, well, he isn't on the block. Not that I've seen.

[TheHurl]

If we're ignoring the trade aspect, I go 15 years, 450M on Tatis. Easily. The NBA is about to get a $75B dollar TV deal. With the way things are moving these days, 30M in 2036 is not going to be a franchise-crippling amount.

 

.

 

MLB is locked in until 2028 on their TV deals though. I know ESPN went down with Fox and TBS paying more. I think it's 12.4B (1.77B approx per year) from 2022 to 2028. I read that it's $25M per team per year increase from the previous broadcasting deals. Significant but not like the NBA numbers.

[John_Havok]

MLB is locked in until 2028 on their TV deals though. I know ESPN went down with Fox and TBS paying more. I think it's 12.4B (1.77B approx per year) from 2022 to 2028. I read that it's $25M per team per year increase from the previous broadcasting deals. Significant but not like the NBA numbers.

 

Do you know any details of what happens to the TV deal numbers if there is a work stoppage?

[TheHurl]

Do you know any details of what happens to the TV deal numbers if there is a work stoppage?

 

Judging by a 2002 article I found MLB would be able to keep the money for 1 year to accrue any interest but then has to pay back the principle amount for the three deals based on lost games. So a full season it would have $1.7B for a year to invest and then have to pay it back March 2023.

[Spanky__99]

Salvador Perez just tied Vlad at 46 Ding Dongs!

[connorp]

Salvador Perez just tied Vlad at 46 Ding Dongs!

 

Well now I can start Baz without fear as McKenzie got destroyed. Counting stats it is