Around Baseball 2021

[connorp]

No afternoon games today

 

Booooo

 

You missed McKenzie’s sweet start? Very good game for us fantasy players that started him

[Spanky__99]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oC0URKAXBDo/T00M28I1luI/AAAAAAAAIhI/Yd7XfBi5mcs/s1600/steroids7.jpg.scaled500.jpg

 

lol... either way.

[King]

[Spanky__99]

Ohtani's splitter has a .080 OBA... best pitch in the MLB, dude's a Unicorn.

[keggy]

 

Juan Soto will be a Hall of Famer. I've never felt that way of any 22-year old since Trout, and maybe Machado.

 

He's such a great, complete hitter and relies so little on defence or baserunning to provide value. He could switch to DH for the rest of his career starting today and still provide elite value.

[Spanky__99]

Man, the Reds and Padres been reeling, Lets Go Friars!

[Olerud363]

Juan Soto will be a Hall of Famer. I've never felt that way of any 22-year old since Trout, and maybe Machado.

 

He's such a great, complete hitter and relies so little on defence or baserunning to provide value. He could switch to DH for the rest of his career starting today and still provide elite value.

 

Scary thing is he still has a 50%+ ground ball rate. His raw power is elite (as seen in home run contest and his hardest hit homeruns) but as of now his ground ball rate is high, and his hard hit stats are something like top 20, but not top 5.

 

His plate discipline is way off the charts though. What if he improves his ground ball rate?

 

Who will have a better career Vlad or Soto?

[connorp]

Soto is obviously awesome but I take exception to stats that are presented as “this century” when the sample size is 20 years

[Laika]

Juan Soto will be a Hall of Famer. I've never felt that way of any 22-year old since Trout, and maybe Machado.

 

He's such a great, complete hitter and relies so little on defence or baserunning to provide value. He could switch to DH for the rest of his career starting today and still provide elite value.

 

Machado has a lot more work to do if he wants in the hall.

[connorp]

Machado has a lot more work to do if he wants in the hall.

 

He said he felt he was, probably won’t be a reality. It’s like someone watching Don Mattingly in his early 20’s and thinking they were watching a sure future HOFer

[Brownie19]

He said he felt he was, probably won’t be a reality. It’s like someone watching Don Mattingly in his early 20’s and thinking they were watching a sure future HOFer

 

I'm a little too young to remember - but what happened to Mattingly? Back injuries? Those first 4 years were incredible, then the power started to go, then he became Lyle Overbay.

[Laika]

He said he felt he was, probably won’t be a reality. It’s like someone watching Don Mattingly in his early 20’s and thinking they were watching a sure future HOFer

 

Yeah I get that.

 

Could say the same about a few other guys currently in the game.

 

Bryce is on track but needs to stay healthy and productive for several more seasons.

 

Machado needs to either plug along like this until he is 36 or he needs to have a bit of a career revival and pump out some more 6 win seasons.

[Brownie19]

Yeah I get that.

 

Could say the same about a few other guys currently in the game.

 

Bryce is on track but needs to stay healthy and productive for several more seasons.

 

Machado needs to either plug along like this until he is 36 or he needs to have a bit of a career revival and pump out some more 6 win seasons.

 

Career 120 wRC+ hitter. I'm not sure he has the desire to drive to maintain his defense and abilities late into his career. I also hate him.

[connorp]

I'm a little too young to remember - but what happened to Mattingly? Back injuries? Those first 4 years were incredible, then the power started to go, then he became Lyle Overbay.

 

I think the consensus opinion is back injuries de-railed it… but I wasn’t old enough to be fully aware. Kind of looks that way checking out the stats

[Laika]

Career 120 wRC+ hitter. I'm not sure he has the desire to drive to maintain his defense and abilities late into his career. I also hate him.

 

Machado is just so naturally good that I could see him transforming into a bit of a slugger in his 30s. I'm imagining a guy who stops having any real defensive value but starts hitting 40+ homers.

[The Cats Ass]

Machado is just so naturally good that I could see him transforming into a bit of a slugger in his 30s. I'm imagining a guy who stops having any real defensive value but starts hitting 40+ homers.

 

I think there's a 50% chance he reaches 500 Homeruns.

[Brownie19]

Who's going to win the NL CY Young?

 

If it were 2003, you'd think Julio Urias would be the favourite at 18-3, 2.99 ERA, but I have to think we're past that now and Corbin Burnes is a favourite even though he's 10-4, 2.25 ERA

 

Max, Buehler and Wheeler will also get consideration. The Dodgers rotation is f***ing insane (even without Bauer).

[BTS]

Who's going to win the NL CY Young?

 

If it were 2003, you'd think Julio Urias would be the favourite at 18-3, 2.99 ERA, but I have to think we're past that now and Corbin Burnes is a favourite even though he's 10-4, 2.25 ERA

 

Max, Buehler and Wheeler will also get consideration. The Dodgers rotation is f***ing insane (even without Bauer).

 

I think it should be between Wheeler and Burnes. Depends on personal opinion on valuing things like Burnes' lucky HR/FB and Wheeler's edge of 40+ innings. Burnes has been better on a per inning basis, but those 40 innings are pretty important. I know FIP-based WAR does that math, but I'm not sure I'm giving Burnes full credit for the <5% HR/FB. Maybe slight edge to Wheeler for me?

[max silver]

I think it should be between Wheeler and Burnes. Depends on personal opinion on valuing things like Burnes' lucky HR/FB and Wheeler's edge of 40+ innings. Burnes has been better on a per inning basis, but those 40 innings are pretty important. I know FIP-based WAR does that math, but I'm not sure I'm giving Burnes full credit for the <5% HR/FB. Maybe slight edge to Wheeler for me?

 

Burnes' low home run rate might not necessarily be totally luck based. The home run rate mirrors that of the shortened 2020 season so it's not like he hasn't done it before. He looks to be nearly impossible to square up as his barrel rate is a minuscule 2.6% and average exit velocity against is all of 85.2 MPH. That exit velocity is like 2020 Danny Jansen levels, and Jansen hit a ton of lazy arcing fly balls with no chance to either fall in for hits or leave the park.

[The Cats Ass]

It's a shame Degrom got injured.

[wilko]

I'd pick Urias. He's basically pitching with one eye.

[G-Snarls]

It's a shame Degrom got injured.

 

Sure is

 

Was on his way to a historically good season

[connorp]

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/youppi-was-the-first-mascot-ejected-from-a-baseball-game

 

Came across this article how they almost stopped Yankee game. The link in-the-story about the Montreal Expos mascot getting tossed is pretty funny though. Good thing there’s no more 22 inning games

 

And him getting in a fight with Philly Phanatic lol.. you just don’t see that stuff anymore

[Virgil_Hiltz]

I think the consensus opinion is back injuries de-railed it… but I wasn’t old enough to be fully aware. Kind of looks that way checking out the stats

 

it was 100% his back and yes, he was 100% on track for the HoF......just kind of sad his managerial record..no hope in getting in through that avenue.

[Spanky__99]

Salvy tied Vlad with his 45th dinger this afternoon.

[Laika]

lmao Salvador Perez of all people is going to steal the HR crown from Vladdy isn't he

[keggy]

Scary thing is he still has a 50%+ ground ball rate. His raw power is elite (as seen in home run contest and his hardest hit homeruns) but as of now his ground ball rate is high, and his hard hit stats are something like top 20, but not top 5.

 

His plate discipline is way off the charts though. What if he improves his ground ball rate?

 

Who will have a better career Vlad or Soto?

 

Soto's power is the only thing that isn't plus-plus elite. He sprays the ball like Trea Turner, he draws walks like Joey Gallo, and he has the batting IQ of Manny Ramirez. He's doesn't need to improve anything, but he's still young enough to learn to loft the ball.

 

Re: Soto vs. Guerrero, the safe bet is definitely Soto. Any player that dominates the league starting as a teenager is historic until proven otherwise. For comparison, Vlad was a year away in the minors at an age when Soto was carving up big league pitchers.

 

However Guerrero's ceiling is still higher. His raw power and bat to ball ability is just something you're born with, and Soto is just a step below.

[keggy]

Machado has a lot more work to do if he wants in the hall.

 

Pretty much everyone not named Trout will need a lot of luck and work to make it from a young age. Machado and Harper are pretty safe bets among guys in their 20s. And in a couple of years we'll probably be saying the same thing about Acuna, Tatis, and possibly Guerrero.

[G-Snarls]

lmao Salvador Perez of all people is going to steal the HR crown from Vladdy isn't he

 

Would have preferred Ohtani if it had to be anyone

[Laika]

Pretty much everyone not named Trout will need a lot of luck and work to make it from a young age. Machado and Harper are pretty safe bets among guys in their 20s. And in a couple of years we'll probably be saying the same thing about Acuna, Tatis, and possibly Guerrero.

 

I don't think Machado is a safe bet. In fact, I wonder if he's not even a coin flip to make it. He has 39.7 WAR right now and is going to end up with a ~3.9 WAR season. He needs to repeat his 2021 five or six times to get over the basic 60 WAR threshold. Or he needs to adapt/improve and have some more big big years. Or play like an average player until he is like 39. All of those are possible, sure.

 

I mean, it's relative. Machado is a safer bet than almost every other player to compare him to so in that sense he is a safe bet. But baseball is full of guys who were fantastic in their 20s but aged hard/normally in their 30s and never accumulated enough production to be Hall of Famers. Take the guy who just retired - Ryan Braun sure looked like a great HoF bet at 28 years old.

 

I think Bryce has a better shot than Manny. I just think Bryce is better. If Manny needs to repeat his 2021 five or six times to get in, Bryce only needs to repeat his 2021 three times.