Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[G-Snarls]

Yeah if no one would take hand for free for 1 and 10 maybe hendriks tops out at 10 mil a season. Given that Melancon got 4 and 62, 3 and 30 or even 4 and 40 seems pretty reasonable for Hendriks.

 

Thats what I was thinking

 

The market has re set

 

No one is giving any relievers even the best ones 12-17M a year anymore

[Spanky99]

Nice s*** post. Love the substance.

 

If you don't think them trade scenarios are bad, I don't know what to say!

[max silver]

Geez... I'm way off.

 

I'm just saying I wouldn't be overly surprised if his AAV approaches the $15 million range. The last two years the reliever leaderboard is basically Hendriks, then several wins behind are guys like Nick Anderson and Brad Hand. Hendriks isn't terribly old, his command is immaculate, he's historically had good health, and his stuff ticked up substantially in 2019.

[Spanky99]

I'm just saying I wouldn't be overly surprised if his AAV approaches the $15 million range. The last two years the reliever leaderboard is basically Hendriks, then several wins behind are guys like Nick Anderson and Brad Hand. Hendriks isn't terribly old, his command is immaculate, he's historically had good health, and his stuff ticked up substantially in 2019.

 

And I wouldn't be surprised about 10 AVV for a multi closer. So volatile

[max silver]

And I wouldn't be surprised about 10 AVV for a multi closer. So volatile

 

It's certainly an impossible year to get a good handle on what the market actually is for anybody given the glacially slow pace up to this point.

[Spanky99]

It's certainly an impossible year to get a good handle on what the market actually is for anybody given the glacially slow pace up to this point.

 

That's why I got lazy and said 10, closest I think.

[Laika]

Spanky was angry last night. Grr.

[z3r0s]

So Turner wants a 4 year deal? Good luck bud!

[Laika]

Yeah. Here is your confirmation that Toronto will have to offer him 3 years, though:

 

Third baseman Justin Turner is looking for a four-year contract, but the Dodgers don’t want to go above two years, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times writes. Turner spent the previous seven seasons as a member of the Dodgers, with whom he went from afterthought to star. The problem is that he’s now 36 years old, so the Dodgers (and other teams) may not be all that eager to commit to Turner on a long-term basis. MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason that Turner would ink a two-year, $24MM deal.

[Laika]

Bauer 5/150 ($30 AAV)

Realmuto 5/100 ($20 AAV)

 

Trade Jansen, Hiraldo, Kay, & Adams for Lindor & Carrasco (if it costs more then upgrade Hiraldo to Groshans & remove Adams).

 

Not sure if you only meant $50 on FA or total, but going with the former, this is what I would try and do.

 

Would look like this after:

 

1. Bauer

2. Ryu

3. Carrasco

4. Ray

5. Pearson

 

Depth: Stripling, Roark, Hatch

 

Prospect depth: SWR, Manoah, Murray

 

1. Biggio 3B

2. Bichette 2B

3. Lindor SS

4. Hernandez RF/DH

5. Tellez DH/1B

6. Guerrero Jr 1B/3B

7. Gurriel Jr LF

8. Realmuto C

9. Grichuk CF

 

Bench: Kirk C, Davis OF, Espinal IF

 

Prospect depth: Martin CF, Groshans 3B*, Moreno C, Martinez SS/3B, Hiraldo IF*

 

* Remove if traded for Lindor

 

I think my intent was that total team payroll would only go up by $50M or so. I doubt they add that much 2021 payroll! Would be neat but I would be shocked.

[Laika]

Sugano day is a big deal for me. Every time I try to play my $50M game above ^ I end up with Toronto signing Sugano.

 

Just seems like a real upside play without much risk. I mean if he is an SP4 instead of an SP2, Toronto still isn't going to feel the contract... but if he is an SP2 the WAR profit is large and could vault the team into a top ~5 MLB squad.

 

(check the projections - any significant additions have Toronto leap-frogging multiple teams in projected WAR).

[saskjayfan]

Interesting... do tell?

 

It's less about his ability. His funky delivery would drive me nuts though too. If we got him, I wouldn't be disappointed at the right price.

 

I really just want to get Kluber.

 

Elbow's, rotator cuffs, labrums. These are injuries that happen to pitchers and they just can't throw like they used to when the return.

 

Kluber had a broken bone, which is a freak accident injury. He also had an oblique and a teres(basically a mini Lat) injury. The soft tissue injuries are concerning because he rightly contains more risk for reoccurrence. None of those injuries are ones that make me think they will diminish his ability to throw the way he used to. Kluber could just be a guy who's largely rested his arm for 2 years. I think he could be the steal of the off season.

[Carlos Danger]

^^^^ And hear we have a video game.

 

Semien and Jackie Bradley Jr is a video game?

 

It is an extremely plausible, doable and realistic move that makes the OVERALL team better. How is that combo ia "video game", when some on here seriously think we will get DJL, Springer, and Bauer...?????

 

Yea, mistype, on JTR.. I must have been sublimely thinking of our old GM.

[Carlos Danger]

Fail on Kuhl... who's JPR?

 

There are some that think he is actually the best long term out of their current young guns. He is coming off injury and closed out the year well. I don't like paying full sticker price for anything and he is actually the same scenario type pitcher that the Jays targeted in Ray, who was doing s*****, and even Stripling.. Guys they think have upside who can be tweaked fixed.. I would much rather have Kuhl then Roark and a number of others.. It is a relatively low cost with his value lower now / upside move, that coupled with Musgrove would be a nice addition.

[Laika]

There's probably a decent chance that Sugano stays in Japan.

 

stfu Mike

[glory]

There's probably a decent chance that Sugano stays in Japan.

 

Passan's latest tweet promoting his article on ESPN+ has this as a teaser: "why Tomoyuki Sugano may be leaning toward a return to Japan". That would be pretty disappointing. He might be using his Japan offer as leverage but he really has no reason to take a bad (for him) MLB deal when he has a fallback. Curious to see how this plays out.

[wamco]

Spanky was angry last night. Grr.

 

Came across more as “bitchy”

[Laika]

Came across more as “bitchy”

 

he's a real firecracker

[THANOS]

Your scenarios/trades are s***/f***ing garbage, how one can possibly think the other FO is retarded enough to take those trades on is absurd, lol

 

f*** you you anti-social drunk f***nut

[Spanky99]

f*** you you anti-social drunk f***nut

 

lol

[THANOS]

I think my intent was that total team payroll would only go up by $50M or so. I doubt they add that much 2021 payroll! Would be neat but I would be shocked.

 

Ah, in that case I'd probably go Springer, Kluber, Sagano (if the latter gets 10M)

[RobinThicc]

https://theathletic.com/2305777/2021/01/06/rosenthal-francisco-lindor-yu-darvish-blake-snell/?amp#click=https://t.co/H6RkurFSzp

 

Anybody able to unlock this and post what he says about Lindor?

[The Iceman]

The Mookie Betts trade, a rival executive was saying on Tuesday night, amounted to a perfect storm. The Dodgers had a win-now mentality, the money to absorb Betts’ original $27 million salary for 2020, and interest in signing him long-term. They even could offer the Red Sox a major-league ready replacement, Alex Verdugo.

 

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage, restricting the willingness of many teams to spend, how the heck are the Indians going to find the same type of match for shortstop Francisco Lindor?

 

The Red Sox’s inclusion of left-hander David Price and requirement that the Dodgers pay half of his remaining $96 million reduced their return for Betts to Verdugo, infielder Jeter Downs and catcher Connor Wong. Eleven months later, it’s unclear whether the Indians can secure even a package that good for Lindor, and that’s without a contract like Price’s involved.

 

Lindor, like Betts at the time of his trade, is under club control for one more season. The Indians anticipate their homegrown star’s salary in arbitration to be between $19.5 million and $21.5 million in his final year before free agency. Yet at 27, he remains, in theory, one of the game’s most attractive commodities, even after regressing offensively during the shortened 2020 season.

 

The problem is finding the right suitor for Lindor, or any suitor for that matter. The Mets, Blue Jays, Giants and Twins are among the handful of teams willing to spend, but any team interested in making a move at shortstop can choose from a variety of alternatives in this free-agent class (Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons) and the next (Lindor, Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story).

 

The Mets and Blue Jays currently appear more focused on free agents at other positions. The Giants are not in a rush to add a shortstop with Brandon Crawford under contract for one more season at $15 million and possessing a full no-trade clause. The Twins might balk at paying the premium that likely would be necessary to acquire Lindor from a division rival.

 

Of those teams, the Mets might be the only one in the position the Dodgers were with Betts, possessing both the wherewithal and major-market status to persuade Lindor to sign long-term. The Jays could make the same pitch, but for a player born in Puerto Rico, Toronto might not hold the same appeal as New York.

 

Even in pre-pandemic times, the Red Sox had only two clubs interested in Betts, the Dodgers and Padres. All the Indians need is one, and the Blue Jays, run by former Cleveland executives Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, would appear a prime candidate if they strike out in free agency, and perhaps even if they don’t. But the Jays, like the Mets, do not have a particular need at shortstop. And teams are hesitant to trade inexpensive young talent with parks expected to open at limited capacity for at least the start of ’21, creating potential shortfalls in revenue for the second straight season.

 

If the Indians fail to get the deal they want, they could hold Lindor until the trade deadline and clear immediate money by moving right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who is owed $24 million over the next two seasons, plus a $3 million buyout. But that strategy, too, would entail risk. Lindor might slump in the first half or suffer an injury. The game’s economic landscape might remain cloudy. Potential buyers at the deadline might prefer to address other needs.

 

For the Indians, the perfect storm remains elusive, if possible at all.

 

Sugano still deciding

Thursday is the final day of Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano’s posting period, and his return to the Yomiuri Giants cannot be ruled out as long as he remains without a major-league deal. The Giants have offered him a four-year contract with opt outs after each season, a structure that would enable him to re-enter the major-league free-agent market next offseason.

 

Sugano, 31, arrived in the United States on Monday, increasing speculation he was about to join a major-league club. But he seems intent on getting the value he believes he deserves as a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award, Japan’s version of the Cy Young. After producing a 1.97 ERA in 137 1/3 innings in 2020, he loomed as one of the top pitchers on the open market, perhaps behind only Trevor Bauer.

 

Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, a less accomplished but younger Japanese pitcher, agreed to a four-year, $56 million free-agent contract with the Mariners in January 2019. In addition, the Mariners paid a $10.275 million posting fee. Sugano presumably would want a similar if not better deal, and while some in the industry believe the Blue Jays made a strong bid, he apparently is not getting his desired number.

 

The major-league economy could be better next off-season, presuming a new collective-bargaining agreement is in place. Sugano would be 32 then, but Padres right-hander Yu Darvish, 34; Twins righty Kenta Maeda, 32; and free-agent righty Masahiro Tanaka, 32, are among the current Japanese major-league pitchers who appear to be aging well.

 

Darvish ranked fifth in the majors in innings last season. Maeda, whose original physical with the Dodgers revealed what he called “irregularities,” has not been on the injured list for arm trouble since his major-league debut in 2016. Tanaka chose rehabilitation over Tommy John surgery for a partial elbow tear in 2014, but ranks 18th in the majors with 153 starts since ’15. Jon Lester and Rick Porcello are tied for the lead with 171 starts in that span.

 

Maddon-Contreras reunion in Anaheim?

Angels manager Joe Maddon was a strong advocate for Willson Contreras during their time together with the Cubs, so perhaps it’s no surprise the Angels are showing interest in trading for the catcher, according to major-league sources.

 

No deal appears close, but Contreras, 28, would be an excellent fit for the Angels, whose top returning catcher, Max Stassi, might miss the start of the season while recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip.

 

Stassi, 29, is not necessarily the answer even when healthy – he had a .611 career OPS before popping an .866 in 105 plate appearances last season, including a 1.024 against left-handed pitching. The fiery Contreras, who is under control for two more seasons, would bring energy to the Angels, whose position players are mostly older veterans.

 

The Cubs could try to pry loose one of the Angels’ better position prospects – perhaps outfielder Jordyn Adams, 21; middle infielder Jeremiah Jackson, 20; or shortstop Kyren Paris, 19. As reported by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, they already have shown interest in free-agent catcher Jason Castro after including Victor Caratini in the Darvish deal. If they traded Contreras, they likely would add another catcher and wait one more season for Miguel Amaya.

 

Contreras is known not just to Maddon, but also to three coaches who followed the manager from the Cubs to the Angels – third base coach Brian Butterfield, assistant hitting coach John Mallee and quality assurance coach Tim Buss. New Angels GM Perry Minasian, meanwhile, is familiar with Contreras’ younger brother, catcher William Contreras, from their time together with the Braves.

 

Assessing the Darvish return

Warning, Cubs fans: What you are about to read is an attempt to explain the Darvish trade, not defend it.

 

The maddening part of the deal was that the Cubs seemed to prioritize cutting payroll over remaining the likely NL Central favorites in ’21. But considering the way clubs value players today, the underwhelming return for Darvish – right-hander Zach Davies and four prospects age 20 and under – perhaps should not have come as a surprise.

 

Darvish might have been the NL Cy Young runner-up in ’20, but he is owed $62 million over the next three seasons, during which he will pitch at ages 34, 35 and 36. It’s not the kind of profile that typically brings back a massive package, and Darvish’s track record is not one of consistent dominance. He was a disappointment in his first 1 1/2 seasons in Chicago, only to revive beginning in the second half of ’19.

 

In their trade with the Padres, the Cubs wound up clearing all but $3 million of Darvish’s remaining obligation and absorbing Davies’ arbitration salary, which MLBTradeRumors.com projects to range from $6.3 million to $10.6 million. The Cubs also acquired four players whom MLB.com installed as their Nos. 10, 11, 16 and 17 prospects – shortstop Reginald Preciado; outfielder Owen Caissie; outfielder Ismael Mena and shortstop Yeison Santana.

 

The Padres spent approximately $5 million combined to sign those players – Preciado received $1.3 million, Caissie $1.2 million, Mena $2.2 million and Santana at least $300,000 (the exact figure has not been reported). None is even close to the majors. But for a Cubs system lacking in depth, they are not insignificant additions.

 

Now about the Rays

Like Darvish, Blake Snell is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher under club control for three seasons. Why did he cost the Padres far more in a trade? Two reasons: Snell, 28, is younger than Darvish, 34, and cheaper, owed an average of $13 million per season compared to Darvish’s $20.7 million.

 

For Snell, the Rays acquired right-handersLuis Patiño and Cole Wilcox and catcher Blake Hunt, who are now the Nos. 3, 8 and 24 prospects, according to MLB.com, in perhaps the game’s deepest farm system. They also obtained catcher Francisco Mejía, a former top 100 prospect whom club officials believe might benefit from changing teams the way right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Austin Meadows did upon arriving from the Pirates.

 

The problem is that the Rays have now subtracted two starting pitchers, Snell and right-hander Charlie Morton, who left for the Braves as a free agent, from a team that went to the World Series. The Rays, though, expect Patiño to transition to the majors quickly. They love what they saw of Hunt at the Padres’ alternate site and in the Instructional League. And they will try to work their development magic on Wilcox, a third-round pick out of the University of Georgia in last year’s draft.

 

Is this any way to defend an American League title? Not in a traditional sense. But with the Rays, it’s all about playing the odds. Losing Snell might reduce their chances of winning the World Series in 2021 to, say, 15 percent. But the Rays believe the players they acquired will give the team a better chance of winning one in future seasons while helping it avoid a total rebuild.

 

Of course, Snell might have helped accomplish the same goals, and now the Rays are short in their rotation. Either a veteran starter or a younger pitcher under long-term control would fit, and the Rays are deep enough in talent, both in the majors and minors, to entertain a variety of trade possibilities.

 

One thing they are unlikely to do is move center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, the only player on their roster with a salary above $7 million. Kiermaier, who turns 31 on April 22, is owed $11.5 in 2021 and $12 million in ’22 with a $2.5 million buyout on a $13 million club option in ’23. His durability is an issue – he averaged only 105 games between ’16 and ’19 – but the Rays say they continue to value him highly.

 

Kiermaier, Manuel Margot and Brett Phillips are all somewhat similar, offsetting their offensive deficiencies with their defensive abilities, enabling the Rays at times to play above-average fielders in the corners as well as in center. Other teams might see it differently, viewing Kiermaier as overpaid. Either way, the Rays are unlikely to get what they want for him in a trade.

 

Odorizzi awaiting his turn

One club in contact with free-agent right-hander Jake Odorizzi says the pitcher expects to land a three-year contract in the $36 million to $42 million range. Such a deal might not be out of reach: Starting pitchers are faring well on the open market, and the Blue Jays offered fellow righty Kevin Gausman three years in the $40 million range before he accepted the Giants’ one-year $18.6 million qualifying offer.

 

Gausman, 29, is a year younger than Odorizzi, and coming off a 3.62 ERA in 59 2/3 innings last season. A variety of injuries limited Odorizzi to 13 2/3 innings, but before that he had a better track record than Gausman, producing a 3.82 ERA from 2015 to ’19. Another difference: Odorizzi is not subject to draft-pick compensation after accepting the Twins’ one-year, $17.8 million qualifying offer last offseason. A player only can be offered a QO once.

 

The question with Odorizzi is whether other teams would be willing to spend at the level the Jays reached in their pursuit of Gausman. The Jays are perhaps the most aggressive team in the market, but have yet to find players willing to take their money. Of course, the Jays also could emerge as a player for Odorizzi if they fail to sign Sugano or Bauer.

 

Around the horn

Information from major-league sources…

 

• Right-hander Blake Treinen’s two-year, $17.5 million free-agent deal with the Dodgers includes an interesting wrinkle: More than one-third of the money cannot be affected by a shortened season or work stoppage.

 

The protected money is a $4 million signing bonus, which is not tied to Treinen’s salary in 2021, and a $1.5 million buyout on an $8 million club option in ’23, which Treinen will receive even if the players and owners fail to reach a new collective-bargaining agreement and a stoppage wipes out part or all of ’22.

 

One more note on Treinen: The Astros, one of the teams that pursued him most heavily, are also focused on free-agent closer Liam Hendriks. Ideally, they wanted to sign both relievers, who were teammates with one of the Astros’ biggest rivals, the Athletics, from 2017 to ’19.

 

• The Nationals, after trading for first baseman Josh Bell, want to add a corner outfielder, ideally someone from the free-agent tier that includes Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson and Kyle Schwarber.

 

Marcell Ozuna figures to be too expensive for the Nats, and like Brantley was more of a DH last season. Pederson or perhaps Adam Duvall would be a more logical fit, considering Washington ranked last in the majors with -45 defensive runs saved.

 

• Outfielder Robbie Grossman’s strikeout and walk rates last season both were better than league average, making him a good fit for the Tigers, who ranked last in the majors in both categories.

 

Grossman, 31, also pulled the ball at a much higher rate than in previous seasons, helping produce a career-high .482 slugging percentage. The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen wrote more on the newest Tiger, who agreed to a two-year, $10 million free-agent contract.

 

• Free-agent right-hander Ken Giles will miss the entire 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on Sept. 30, but figures to sign the type of two-year deal that teams frequently award pitchers recovering from an elbow reconstruction.

 

Giles, 30, might appeal to clubs that plan to be more competitive and/or financially flexible in ’22, as well as those that might lose their closer to free agency. The Dodgers (Kenley Jansen), Nationals (Daniel Hudson) and Cubs (Craig Kimbrel) are among the teams that could fit that description.

 

Then again, the signing of Treinen might cover the Dodgers, who earlier added righty Tommy Kahnle, a free-agent setup man recovering from Tommy John, on a two-year, $4.75 million deal, and traded for righty Corey Knebel, who signed a one-year, $5.25 million contract.

 

• If government orders citing COVID-19 force Major League Baseball to delay the start of its regular season, playing 162 games might become problematic.

 

Television networks want their sports partners to resume their normal schedules, which for MLB would mean concluding the World Series on FOX by Nov. 1. Viewership numbers, ad sales and sponsorships all were affected by overlapping sports schedules in 2020.

 

• And finally, wondering why the Padres are so aggressive this offseason when other teams are not? Before 2020, the Pads had reached the postseason only five times in 51 seasons, and only once had they qualified back-to-back years, in ’05 and ’06. They lost to the Cardinals in the Division Series both times, winning a total of one game.

 

What the Padres are trying to do is sustain momentum, believing they ultimately will benefit in attendance once fans return, and through sponsorships. After adding Darvish, Snell and Korean shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, they remain interested in re-signing free agent Jurickson Profar, whom they would use primarily as an outfielder, believing they would benefit from the additional depth, particularly if the National League again uses a DH.

[Laika]

https://theathletic.com/2305777/2021/01/06/rosenthal-francisco-lindor-yu-darvish-blake-snell/?amp#click=https://t.co/H6RkurFSzp

 

Anybody able to unlock this and post what he says about Lindor?

 

Stuff on Sugano too:

 

The Mookie Betts trade, a rival executive was saying on Tuesday night, amounted to a perfect storm. The Dodgers had a win-now mentality, the money to absorb Betts’ original $27 million salary for 2020, and interest in signing him long-term. They even could offer the Red Sox a major-league ready replacement, Alex Verdugo.

 

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage, restricting the willingness of many teams to spend, how the heck are the Indians going to find the same type of match for shortstop Francisco Lindor?

 

The Red Sox’s inclusion of left-hander David Price and requirement that the Dodgers pay half of his remaining $96 million reduced their return for Betts to Verdugo, infielder Jeter Downs and catcher Connor Wong. Eleven months later, it’s unclear whether the Indians can secure even a package that good for Lindor, and that’s without a contract like Price’s involved.

 

Lindor, like Betts at the time of his trade, is under club control for one more season. The Indians anticipate their homegrown star’s salary in arbitration to be between $19.5 million and $21.5 million in his final year before free agency. Yet at 27, he remains, in theory, one of the game’s most attractive commodities, even after regressing offensively during the shortened 2020 season.

 

The problem is finding the right suitor for Lindor, or any suitor for that matter. The Mets, Blue Jays, Giants and Twins are among the handful of teams willing to spend, but any team interested in making a move at shortstop can choose from a variety of alternatives in this free-agent class (Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons) and the next (Lindor, Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story).

 

The Mets and Blue Jays currently appear more focused on free agents at other positions. The Giants are not in a rush to add a shortstop with Brandon Crawford under contract for one more season at $15 million and possessing a full no-trade clause. The Twins might balk at paying the premium that likely would be necessary to acquire Lindor from a division rival.

 

Of those teams, the Mets might be the only one in the position the Dodgers were with Betts, possessing both the wherewithal and major-market status to persuade Lindor to sign long-term. The Jays could make the same pitch, but for a player born in Puerto Rico, Toronto might not hold the same appeal as New York.

 

Even in pre-pandemic times, the Red Sox had only two clubs interested in Betts, the Dodgers and Padres. All the Indians need is one, and the Blue Jays, run by former Cleveland executives Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, would appear a prime candidate if they strike out in free agency, and perhaps even if they don’t. But the Jays, like the Mets, do not have a particular need at shortstop. And teams are hesitant to trade inexpensive young talent with parks expected to open at limited capacity for at least the start of ’21, creating potential shortfalls in revenue for the second straight season.

 

If the Indians fail to get the deal they want, they could hold Lindor until the trade deadline and clear immediate money by moving right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who is owed $24 million over the next two seasons, plus a $3 million buyout. But that strategy, too, would entail risk. Lindor might slump in the first half or suffer an injury. The game’s economic landscape might remain cloudy. Potential buyers at the deadline might prefer to address other needs.

 

For the Indians, the perfect storm remains elusive, if possible at all.

 

Sugano still deciding

Thursday is the final day of Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano’s posting period, and his return to the Yomiuri Giants cannot be ruled out as long as he remains without a major-league deal. The Giants have offered him a four-year contract with opt outs after each season, a structure that would enable him to re-enter the major-league free-agent market next offseason.

 

Sugano, 31, arrived in the United States on Monday, increasing speculation he was about to join a major-league club. But he seems intent on getting the value he believes he deserves as a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award, Japan’s version of the Cy Young. After producing a 1.97 ERA in 137 1/3 innings in 2020, he loomed as one of the top pitchers on the open market, perhaps behind only Trevor Bauer.

 

Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, a less accomplished but younger Japanese pitcher, agreed to a four-year, $56 million free-agent contract with the Mariners in January 2019. In addition, the Mariners paid a $10.275 million posting fee. Sugano presumably would want a similar if not better deal, and while some in the industry believe the Blue Jays made a strong bid, he apparently is not getting his desired number.

 

The major-league economy could be better next off-season, presuming a new collective-bargaining agreement is in place. Sugano would be 32 then, but Padres right-hander Yu Darvish, 34; Twins righty Kenta Maeda, 32; and free-agent righty Masahiro Tanaka, 32, are among the current Japanese major-league pitchers who appear to be aging well.

 

Darvish ranked fifth in the majors in innings last season. Maeda, whose original physical with the Dodgers revealed what he called “irregularities,” has not been on the injured list for arm trouble since his major-league debut in 2016. Tanaka chose rehabilitation over Tommy John surgery for a partial elbow tear in 2014, but ranks 18th in the majors with 153 starts since ’15. Jon Lester and Rick Porcello are tied for the lead with 171 starts in that span.

 

Odorizzi awaiting his turn

One club in contact with free-agent right-hander Jake Odorizzi says the pitcher expects to land a three-year contract in the $36 million to $42 million range. Such a deal might not be out of reach: Starting pitchers are faring well on the open market, and the Blue Jays offered fellow righty Kevin Gausman three years in the $40 million range before he accepted the Giants’ one-year $18.6 million qualifying offer.

 

Gausman, 29, is a year younger than Odorizzi, and coming off a 3.62 ERA in 59 2/3 innings last season. A variety of injuries limited Odorizzi to 13 2/3 innings, but before that he had a better track record than Gausman, producing a 3.82 ERA from 2015 to ’19. Another difference: Odorizzi is not subject to draft-pick compensation after accepting the Twins’ one-year, $17.8 million qualifying offer last offseason. A player only can be offered a QO once.

 

The question with Odorizzi is whether other teams would be willing to spend at the level the Jays reached in their pursuit of Gausman. The Jays are perhaps the most aggressive team in the market, but have yet to find players willing to take their money. Of course, the Jays also could emerge as a player for Odorizzi if they fail to sign Sugano or Bauer.

[Brownie19]

Giants offering a 4 year deal with an opt-out option after each year is interesting.

[connorp]

What would a Lindor trade w/o an extension look like?

[G-Snarls]

I don't like the thought of trading Gurriel for Lindor unless we're getting Springer. That would be such a massive upgrade at multiple positions if they pulled both off, with an even longer lineup and better defense all around the diamond.

 

Otherwise I'd rather spend the money on pitching and maybe get Lindor at the trade deadline or wait until next off season to sign him or Correa or Story as free agents

Edited January 6, 2021 by G-Snarls

[G-Snarls]

[wilko]

 

It'll be interesting to see what happens with Sugano. One more day!

[Ray]

This Yahoo Japan article once translated says the Sugano is holding out for the same guarantee as Yusei Kikuchi got (4 years $56M), but he hasn't gotten that offer yet.

 

Seems pretty high for a 31 year old unproven commodity. Kiley had predicted 2 years $24M. I think we'd even be willing to do the Happ contract (3 years $36M), but anything more than that might be a bit much.

 

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/fc78e66370c89c622d02362a310f36d85541ece8?source=rss