Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[G-Snarls]

4 years at 14M AAV? He should just stay in Japan.

 

Wait. How much is his own team offering? I know about rhe annual opt outs but have $$ been announced?

[Brownie19]

4 years at 14M AAV? He should just stay in Japan.

 

Wait. How much is his own team offering? I know about rhe annual opt outs but have $$ been announced?

 

We gave Roark 2 years $24M last year. I'm not sure why 4 years $56M seems out of the question for someone like Sugano. COVID doesn't seem to be reducing FA pay days as much as some expected.

[saskjayfan]

We gave Roark 2 years $24M last year. I'm not sure why 4 years $56M seems out of the question for someone like Sugano. COVID doesn't seem to be reducing FA pay days as much as some expected.

 

Last year's market isn't anything like this years. There's a reason no one has signed. Roark's deal was bad even by last year's standards where teams were paying.

 

Who's paying 4 and 56 plus a 10 mil posting deal making it an average of 16 a year in this market. Kikuchi has put up 1.4 wins total over the last 2 seasons. He's the cautionary tale if anything.

 

Give me Kluber, give me Paxton, give me Hendriks if that is what it's going to take to sign Sugano.

[Brownie19]

Last year's market isn't anything like this years. There's a reason no one has signed. Roark's deal was bad even by last year's standards where teams were paying.

 

Who's paying 4 and 56 plus a 10 mil posting deal making it an average of 16 a year in this market. Kikuchi has put up 1.4 wins total over the last 2 seasons. He's the cautionary tale if anything.

 

Give me Kluber, give me Paxton, give me Hendriks if that is what it's going to take to sign Sugano.

 

Is it though? Treinen just got a solid contract. Grossman got 2 years $10M. I fully expect Springer is getting $125-$150M. I don't see the big discount people expected (which would be a wet dream for the Jays).

[Brownie19]

Well the first guys that sign are not going to be the ones that come at a discounted rate.

 

I also think Springer at 125M would be a discount. Rendon got 245M last year. I mean, Rendon's definitely better and younger but Springer's not half as good lol.

 

OK that's fair. I think someone's offering Sugano $14M. We'll soon see.

[G-Snarls]

MLBTR

 

Free agent righty Jake Odorizzi appears to be in position to land a three-year deal, an executive tells Rosenthal. The expectation from that industry source is that the veteran starter could secure a guarantee in the realm of $36MM to $42MM — just where MLBTR predicted he’d land. There’s still no clarity as to Odorizzi’s slate of suitors, but it stands to reason he’ll have fairly widespread appeal given that Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman each accepted qualifying offers, removing two primary targets from the market.

 

Sugano or Odorizzi?

[connorp]

MLBTR

 

Free agent righty Jake Odorizzi appears to be in position to land a three-year deal, an executive tells Rosenthal. The expectation from that industry source is that the veteran starter could secure a guarantee in the realm of $36MM to $42MM — just where MLBTR predicted he’d land. There’s still no clarity as to Odorizzi’s slate of suitors, but it stands to reason he’ll have fairly widespread appeal given that Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman each accepted qualifying offers, removing two primary targets from the market.

 

Sugano or Odorizzi?

 

If Jays don’t get one of Tanaka/Paxton/Odorizzi- I hope they stay away from Sugano. Sign Sugano as the 2nd SP and I’d like it but sounds like he won’t be cheap (relatively speaking)

[Pendleton]

Happy Sugano day!

[G-Snarls]

[Pendleton]

Really do hope we land him, one of the few options that could provide significant surplus value.

[G-Snarls]

Really do hope we land him, one of the few options that could provide significant surplus value.

 

Seattle is hoping to start getting value for Kikuchi... 26M for 1.4 WAR so far. His first year was so bad.

[Brownie19]

Seattle is hoping to start getting value for Kikuchi... 26M for 1.4 WAR so far. His first year was so bad.

 

To be fair - he was really good last year (some bad luck with the ERA) and was on pace for 4+ WAR

[glory]

If Sugano came over last year and asked for 4/56, I think some team may have given it to him (or close to it), so I don't think it's an unreasonable ask on his part. It's just bad timing for him. I'm not sure of his mindset as it relates to playing in Toronto, as I'm sure he'd prefer a West Coast team, but if the Jays offer to him is around what they offered Gausman (3/40-ish according to Rosenthal), and that also happens to be the best MLB offer he's going to get, then it's not going to be easy for him to turn down. Hard to say without knowing what TOR's offer is.

 

My guess is he stays in Japan, but money can change minds.

[G-Snarls]

To be fair - he was really good last year (some bad luck with the ERA) and was on pace for 4+ WAR

 

One full terrible season (to be fair I think you can forgive a first bad season when changing continemts and leagues without panicking)

 

4/10THS of a very good season

 

Hard to project going forward

 

But so is Odorizzi.

Edited January 7, 2021 by G-Snarls

[Pendleton]

Seattle is hoping to start getting value for Kikuchi... 26M for 1.4 WAR so far. His first year was so bad.

 

There is risk involved for sure, but I'm a believer. High spin rate and plus (perhaps elite) command, sounds like a recipe for success in any league. He could turn out to be a complete dud but at least these international arms are no longer coming with a mega albatross price tag.

[G-Snarls]

at least these international arms are no longer coming with a mega albatross price tag.

 

Indeed...

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/bosoxinjection.com/2020/12/26/red-sox-strange-saga-daisuke-matsuzaka/amp/

Edited January 7, 2021 by G-Snarls

[Laika]

Seattle is hoping to start getting value for Kikuchi... 26M for 1.4 WAR so far. His first year was so bad.

 

Kikuchi might be fine. He had a solid 2020 if you look past the ERA. Velocity was up too.

[wilko]

Indeed...

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/bosoxinjection.com/2020/12/26/red-sox-strange-saga-daisuke-matsuzaka/amp/

 

 

Poor Matsuzaka. Wern't the Jays trying to land him at the end of his career?

[RustyTrombone]

Kikuchi might be fine. He had a solid 2020 if you look past the ERA. Velocity was up too.

 

Yea, i dont like how people are trashing him so much. xERA of 3.5 in 2020 with a huge 4 mph velo uptick on his 4 seam.

[connorp]

Kikuchi might be fine. He had a solid 2020 if you look past the ERA. Velocity was up too.

 

It was still only 40+ innings (120IP or so full season pace). So not an automatic assumption he’d sustain the K rate in larger sample. He was less hittable for sure. Positive direction but he making $16-17m now so he’s got something to prove.

 

I’d think the board would be disappointed to this point with the signing of he was Jay. IMO at least. Though admittedly it’s still salvageable with the options and such if he gets it going

[G-Snarls]

Poor Matsuzaka. Wern't the Jays trying to land him at the end of his career?

 

If they are they're in luck! His career ain't over!

 

https://calltothepen.com/2020/12/25/daisuke-matsuzaka-new-contract-hand-ready-pitch/

[Laika]

It was still only 40+ innings (120IP or so full season pace). So not an automatic assumption he’d sustain the K rate in larger sample. He was less hittable for sure. Positive direction but he making $16-17m now so he’s got something to prove.

 

I’d think the board would be disappointed to this point with the signing of he was Jay. IMO at least. Though admittedly it’s still salvageable with the options and such if he gets it going

 

I don't disagree, but he's a big 2021 sleeper candidate for me. He hasn't been worth his contract but he's a dude to watch. He could still be worth it and there are serious signs of life.

[G-Snarls]

I don't disagree, but he's a big 2021 sleeper candidate for me. He hasn't been worth his contract but he's a dude to watch. He could still be worth it and there are serious signs of life.

 

I hope he has a good year. It's good to see players come from Asia and succeed.

[RobinThicc]

I think he signs. Clearly he's interested in coming to the MLB and I highly doubt he'll do anything next year that will actually warrant an increase in salary, plus it doesnt seem like there will be crowds for the majority of next season.

[EZe]

Say you have $50M in AAV you can spend. No going over. Assume these contracts:

 

Bauer 5/150 ($30 AAV)

Springer 5/135 ($27 AAV)

Realmuto 5/100 ($20 AAV)

DJLM 4/80 ($20 AAV)

Ozuna 4/76 ($19 AAV)

Paxton 3/57 ($19 AAV)

Semien 3/54 ($18 AAV)

Tanaka 3/51 ($17 AAV)

Didi 3/48 ($16 AAV)

Hendriks 3/45 ($15 AAV)

Turner 3/45 ($15 AAV)

Brantley 3/45 ($15 AAV)

Simmons 3/39 ($13 AAV)

Kluber 1/13 ($13 AAV)

Hamels 1/13 ($13 AAV)

Sugano 3/36 ($12 AAV)

Odorizzi 3/36 ($12 AAV)

Pederson 2/20 ($10 AAV)

Wong 3/30 ($10 AAV)

Walker 2/20 ($10 AAV)

Quintana 2/20 ($10 AAV)

Happ 2/18 ($9 AAV)

Hand 3/27 ($9 AAV)

Archer 1/9 ($9 AAV)

Cesar Hernandez 2/16 ($8 AAV)

Garrett Richards 2/16 ($8 AAV)

Treinen 2/16 ($8 AAV)

Puig, La Stella, Hill...1/8 ($8 AAV)

 

For anyone else assume the AAV here: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker or just use $5M if there is no prediction there.

 

(you can assume that smaller $1M and $2M additions don't affect payroll)

 

Who are you signing? Two big fish or spreading the money around?

 

Bauer + DJLM

[Grant77]

DJLM, Sugano, Bradley Jr. Hand

 

Assuming 9 mil for Bradley, but who knows

[Brownie19]

Is anyone concerned about Hand? Big velo drop over the past 2 years.

[Scion]

 

[jerb]

 

Scott Carson

@KOAS1963

 

According to @jonmorosi Japanese RHP Tomoyuki Sugano turned away from #BlueJays because he didn't want to "compete directly for a rotation spot with his former Yomiuri Giants teammate Shun Yamaguchi." #ScatchingHead

[Jimcanuck]

As if Yamaguchi is going to get consideration for the rotation. Crikey!