Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[Deadpool]

They could also keep gurriel and the 3 to 4 wins a season he gives you and just sign Bauer for 30 mil a season for 5 years. A 4 win player making 15 mil over the next 3 years is a valuable commodity for a team that doesn’t have unlimited funds.

 

I mean, I'd love it if we got 3 to 4 wins from LGJ, but like... I don't think you can plug that number in as a guarantee at this point. The two Projections on Fangraphs have him at 2.0 and 1.9. I think he has every chance to be in the 3-4 WAR range, but I don't think it can be assumed that he automatically will.

[max silver]

I mean, I'd love it if we got 3 to 4 wins from LGJ, but like... I don't think you can plug that number in as a guarantee at this point. The two Projections on Fangraphs have him at 2.0 and 1.9. I think he has every chance to be in the 3-4 WAR range, but I don't think it can be assumed that he automatically will.

 

Those projections have Gurriel projected at 107 WRC+, which he has handily beaten every season since he was a rookie. If he manages to stay reasonably healthy and make it into 140 or so games 3 wins should be well within his grasp. It's amazing how little North American professional experience he has under his belt, he has only played in about 350 games total due to the various injuries he seems to constantly be dealing with.

[Deadpool]

Those projections have Gurriel projected at 107 WRC+, which he has handily beaten every season since he was a rookie. If he manages to stay reasonably healthy and make it into 140 or so games 3 wins should be well within his grasp. It's amazing how little North American professional experience he has under his belt, he has only played in about 350 games total due to the various injuries he seems to constantly be dealing with.

 

"3 wins should be well within his grasp" and "I think he has every chance to be in the 3-4 WAR range" are pretty much the same thing, so y'know...

[max silver]

"3 wins should be well within his grasp" and "I think he has every chance to be in the 3-4 WAR range" are pretty much the same thing, so y'know...

 

Just saying I disagree with the projections. Obviously we can't assume any player with meet or exceed their projections, but 2 wins is pretty damn conservative for Gurriel assuming he plays a more or less complete season.

[Deadpool]

Just saying I disagree with the projections. Obviously we can't assume any player with meet or exceed their projections, but 2 wins is pretty damn conservative for Gurriel assuming he plays a more or less complete season.

 

Agreed, but my point was I don't agree with the idea that "we don't need Lindor, because we're going to get 3-4 wins from Gurriel". (Obviously a paraphrase, but that was the sentiment.)

[connorp]

Just saying I disagree with the projections. Obviously we can't assume any player with meet or exceed their projections, but 2 wins is pretty damn conservative for Gurriel assuming he plays a more or less complete season.

 

Yeah 107 seems pretty conservative if not insulting. I guess they’re comping him to other guys that debuted when they were almost 25 with 1 year of underwhelming milb stats

[max silver]

Agreed, but my point was I don't agree with the idea that "we don't need Lindor, because we're going to get 3-4 wins from Gurriel". (Obviously a paraphrase, but that was the sentiment.)

 

I don't agree with trading away the guy who is likely the team's best outfielder personally, makes more sense in my view to wait until the next offseason when you potentially have a full crop of premiere shortstops to choose from and only give away a comp pick. What is the upgrade of Lindor vs. Gurriel, 2-3 wins max? Plus whatever prospect capital needs to be moved out as well, all for the right of paying a free agent contract to Lindor a year early?

[Ryu In My House]

"3 wins should be well within his grasp" and "I think he has every chance to be in the 3-4 WAR range" are pretty much the same thing, so y'know...

 

Deadpool is right.

[G-Snarls]

I don't agree with trading away the guy who is likely the team's best outfielder personally, makes more sense in my view to wait until the next offseason when you potentially have a full crop of premiere shortstops to choose from and only give away a comp pick. What is the upgrade of Lindor vs. Gurriel, 2-3 wins max? Plus whatever prospect capital needs to be moved out as well, all for the right of paying a free agent contract to Lindor a year early?

 

Advantages of trading for him now:

 

1. He plays for you at age 27 in 2021 during a year you want to contend

 

2. You have a full year to negotiate a contract extension with him during which time no other team is allowed to negotiate with him

 

3. If he plays one year for you and walks you get draft pick compensation because guaranteed he'll be given the qualifying offer and reject it.

 

4. Excitement continues to build for fans and potential free agent recruits

[Laika]

I don't agree with trading away the guy who is likely the team's best outfielder personally, makes more sense in my view to wait until the next offseason when you potentially have a full crop of premiere shortstops to choose from and only give away a comp pick. What is the upgrade of Lindor vs. Gurriel, 2-3 wins max? Plus whatever prospect capital needs to be moved out as well, all for the right of paying a free agent contract to Lindor a year early?

 

Well MAX it would be like, 6 wins. Lindor has a 7+ WAR season under his belt and Gurriel has never touched 2 WAR.

[G-Snarls]

Well MAX it would be like, 6 wins. Lindor has a 7+ WAR season under his belt and Gurriel has never touched 2 WAR.

 

And in this armchair GM situation, aren't we signing 4-5 WAR Springer to replace Gurriel anyway?

[G-Snarls]

Whatever you do, don't accidentally Google "george springer blue jays" like I just did

 

Some of the "articles" that come up sound ridiculous and I don't dare click on them

[connorp]

As projected (even though LG’s is conservative), it’s 3 wins. But don’t forget it’d prob be LG + something equally intriguing. Pass

[max silver]

Well MAX it would be like, 6 wins. Lindor has a 7+ WAR season under his belt and Gurriel has never touched 2 WAR.

 

I seriously doubt Lindor ever puts up another 7 win season though. His foot speed looks to be slowing down as his sprint speeds have been dropping, and the last few years he's been a negative runner based on Fangraphs. Lindor's offensive output has only been decent the last few seasons. He looks like a player who if his defense starts to slip (not out of the realm of possibility due to declining speed) isn't going to be worth a superstar contract. I think Jason Heyward is a pretty decent comparable, so much of his value was achieved by being well rounded in all 3 phases of the game but the bat was never elite. If/when either the bat or the defense slips for Lindor he could very quickly lose much of his value on the field.

[THANOS]

Lindor is really good at baseball - like all aspects of baseball and is probably just reaching his prime offensively (yes the defense and base running will decline).

 

I also love that he's a great character player and a batter who doesn't strike out a ton. Lindor at SS probably makes Bo well above average at 2nd or 3rd and would immediately make our infield defense elite.

 

There's a s*** ton to like about this fit. The real question is the cost (both in terms of prospects and money).

 

I'd do either of below, but not sure how balanced it is:

 

To TOR: Lindor

To CLE: LGJ, Moreno, & Murphy

 

Or

 

To TOR: Lindor & Carrasco

To CLE: LGJ, Jansen, Moreno, Hiraldo & Murphy

[THANOS]

And in this armchair GM situation, aren't we signing 4-5 WAR Springer to replace Gurriel anyway?

 

That's what I would assume, or else why trade LGJ?

[Carlos Danger]

I'd do either of below, but not sure how balanced it is:

 

To TOR: Lindor

To CLE: LGJ, Moreno, & Murphy

 

Or

 

To TOR: Lindor & Carrasco

To CLE: LGJ, Jansen, Moreno, Hiraldo & Murphy

 

I wonder who the Indians would trade for less.. Plesac or Carrasco.. I would much prefer Plesac, though I don't see it happening..

[Jays24]

I wonder who the Indians would trade for less.. Plesac or Carrasco.. I would much prefer Plesac, though I don't see it happening..

 

Lets get Jose Ramirez from them too and turn it into the 2020 version of the Marlins trade... but hopefully with better results lol.

Edited December 7, 2020 by Jays24

[Carlos Danger]

Lets get Jose Ramirez from them too and turn it into the 2020 version of the Marins trade... but hopefully with better results lol.

 

Not a bad idea, they might not be able to afford him either ( and they have Jones in the wings. .LOL Strike while the iron is hot..

[Brownie19]

Apparently the Pirates wanted Kirk as the centerpiece of the reported Musgrove trade at the deadline last year.

[burlingtonbandit]

Advantages of trading for him now:

 

1. He plays for you at age 27 in 2021 during a year you want to contend

 

2. You have a full year to negotiate a contract extension with him during which time no other team is allowed to negotiate with him

 

3. If he plays one year for you and walks you get draft pick compensation because guaranteed he'll be given the qualifying offer and reject it.

 

4. Excitement continues to build for fans and potential free agent recruits

 

1. Or you could throw 20M at Justin Turner on a 1 year deal and keep the prospects/Gurriel to either help the team or trade for other pieces.

 

2. With the recent news of him being added as a MLBPA union executive he's expected to sign with the highest bidder. He's likely going to FA anyways, so unless you are competing for a World Series this year may as well wait till next year.

 

4. If there are no fans again this season that limits the potential revenue gain that a Lindor trade would normally make. Although the TV ratings do matter a lot more to a team like the Jays than most clubs but we really don't know how much in terms of $.

 

 

If I'm the Jays I would just wait till next year to make a FA splash when there are a lot more options instead of trading for Lindor. And maybe the pandemic causes a lot of franchises to lose more $ this year and drives down prices for FA next year again, who knows. Go try and sign Springer, Turner and some pitching.

[glory]

Yeah, Lindor being a MLBPA rep now definitely lessens the potential for an extension, at least a reasonable one. He's going to want to test FA to get as much money as possible.

[G-Snarls]

1. Or you could throw 20M at Justin Turner on a 1 year deal and keep the prospects/Gurriel to either help the team or trade for other pieces.

 

2. With the recent news of him being added as a MLBPA union executive he's expected to sign with the highest bidder. He's likely going to FA anyways, so unless you are competing for a World Series this year may as well wait till next year.

 

4. If there are no fans again this season that limits the potential revenue gain that a Lindor trade would normally make. Although the TV ratings do matter a lot more to a team like the Jays than most clubs but we really don't know how much in terms of $.

 

 

If I'm the Jays I would just wait till next year to make a FA splash when there are a lot more options instead of trading for Lindor. And maybe the pandemic causes a lot of franchises to lose more $ this year and drives down prices for FA next year again, who knows. Go try and sign Springer, Turner and some pitching.

 

Some good points

 

I'm all for signing Springer and using Gurriel/catchers as trade chips to aquire a top of the rotation starter

 

Trading for Lindor or Arenado should perhaps be plan B anyway, OR the icing on the cake if you've already improved at SP 2 and CF

Edited December 7, 2020 by G-Snarls

[burlingtonbandit]

I'd be much more inclined to try to trade for Carrasco from Cleveland if they are trying to shed payroll. Gets a ton of swing and miss and while older is still pretty good.

 

Gurriel does seem like a guy you can sell high on. I would like to see the Jays get another LH bet as the lineup is pretty RH dominant. Trading Gurriel and signing a guy like Joc Pederson probably makes the team better in all honesty.

[Jays24]

Some good points

 

I'm all for signing Springer and using Gurriel/catchers as trade chips to aquire a top of the rotation starter

 

Trading for Lindor or Arenado should perhaps be plan B anyway...

 

The main reason why Lindor makes sense is if we can get Springer. Grichuk has no trade value so we'd have Teo or Gurriel available to fill a need on the infield. A single domino can lead to a flurry of other moves which would all be about best allocating our assets.

 

We can always use those assets for a pitcher and sign an infielder instead as well. But lindor checks a lot of boxes for us short and long term. Gotta trust our management to make the best decisions since they got us into this great spot currently.

[jerb]

 

Keegan Matheson

@KeeganMatheson

 

#BlueJays have claimed RHP Anthony Castro off waivers from the Detroit Tigers. Castro, 25, was ranked by @MLBPipeline as Detroit’s No. 17 prospect. He pitched at Double A in 2019 and made one MLB appearance in 2020.

[King]

Jays claimed Anthony Castro from the Tigers

 

edit: cant beat the jerb

[max silver]

I'd be much more inclined to try to trade for Carrasco from Cleveland if they are trying to shed payroll. Gets a ton of swing and miss and while older is still pretty good.

 

Gurriel does seem like a guy you can sell high on. I would like to see the Jays get another LH bet as the lineup is pretty RH dominant. Trading Gurriel and signing a guy like Joc Pederson probably makes the team better in all honesty.

 

I'd be a little worried about the possibility of cancer relapse with Carrasco. You would think that would have to factor into the acquisition cost though, so maybe the prospect capital required would be lessened a bit.

[G-Snarls]

Writeup on Castro from February:

 

https://www.mlb.com/tigers/news/anthony-castro-promising-tigers-pitching-prospect

[connorp]

Yeah, Lindor being a MLBPA rep now definitely lessens the potential for an extension, at least a reasonable one. He's going to want to test FA to get as much money as possible.

 

Yeah he’s going to want to be paid like a star for sure 10/300, or close to it now. If he has another lukewarm season he’s definitely not going to be able to command it though. A team could potentially get him for $50-75m less over a long contract easy by waiting. If he has a big year, the price isn’t going to go up from 10/300, so there’s not much to lose waiting.