Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[Laika]

Every team has guys like McGuire and Adams. I would think Moreno is the only one with trade value?

 

Not true

[Jimcanuck]

Adams had a nice run of success at high A and AA in 2019, he looks like he might have some potential with the bat. The high strikeout numbers are a bit of a red flag though.

 

Yes i could be wrong about Adams. Still don't think middle of the road catching prospects have much trade value.

[JuneBug]

Not many, no different than for any other team. Except Cleveland. No player in their right mind moves to Cleveland.

 

Did you notice my post referred to "internationals"?

 

sure but you can't just automatically project your own anti-US bias on to people for whcih you don't have any idea what their opinion of the USA is. South Koreans and Japanese like the USA in general (if for no other reason the USA has prevented them from being overun by the Commies for many decades and been an excellent market for their companies helping to make them wealthy countries).

 

A bigger issue is that pretty much all these internationals, which I assume you use to refer to foreigners that come directly to MLB (pretty much only Japan S. Korea, and Cuba), will obtain representation by a US based sports agent and that agent will be highly likely (almost exclusively) to steer them away from the Jays.

 

ETA: having Ryu , who I guess is the best Korean currently in MLB already on the Jays is a bonus and one tangible advantage they have in trying to attract this other guy Kim

[Spanky99]

will obtain representation by a US based sports agent and that agent will be highly likely (almost exclusively) to steer them away from the Jays.

 

Huh, why?

[max silver]

Huh, why?

 

Totally baseless assumption.

[saskjayfan]

If Paxton can pass a physical, then he's probably the best combination of affordable (due to injury) and upside. Although he still held a grudge with the Jays org even after he was traded to the Yankees, as he brought it up on a NY radio interview after the trade. I'm sure Shapiro (and money) can fix that, but whatever AA did to him during the draft must have been pretty bad.

 

Jays seemed pretty serious about Odorizzi last winter too, so wouldn't be surprised if that is revisited without the QO involved.

 

JP Richardi was our GM the year Paxton was drafted. I find it hard to believe he holds a grudge from 11 years ago. Also it was Beeston making comments to the globe and mail about the difficulties of dealing with Scott Boras to the media and the NCAA caught hold of this. At the time you were allowed a family advisor but not an agent and the NCAA ruled him ineligible for his final year. The reality is Scott Boras was a pain in the ass. He asked for way too much and said to the player, you're a late 1st round pick..a great year at college and you'll be a top 10 pick and I can get you triple the money. Paxton should have been a Jay. Worked out great for him eventually going to Seattle so he was close to his family.

Edited October 11, 2020 by saskjayfan

[TheHurl]

JP Richardi was our GM the year Paxton was drafted. I find it hard to believe he holds a grudge from 11 years ago. Also it was Beeston making comments to the globe and mail about the difficulties of dealing with Scott Boras to the media and the NCAA caught hold of this. At the time you were allowed a family advisor but not an agent and the NCAA ruled him ineligible for his final year. The reality is Scott Boras was a pain in the ass. He asked for way too much and said to the player, you're a late 1st round pick..a great year at college and you'll be a top 10 pick and I can get you triple the money. Paxton should have been a Jay. Worked out great for him eventually going to Seattle so he was close to his family.

 

And it was 100% Beeston who did Paxton dirty. It isn't a hidden story...only unknown is intent and the belief of Boras was that it was intentional. Everyone knew Paxton's price...Jays were dumb enough to think he would bend over for Canada. And you are correct it should have zero impact on future discussions.

[saskjayfan]

And it was 100% Beeston who did Paxton dirty. It isn't a hidden story...only unknown is intent and the belief of Boras was that it was intentional.

 

If he had any other agent(advisor) they would have said take slot start your career and get to free agency as soon as possible. Boras is an unreasonable prick at times.

 

That said, we've more than mended fences with Boras. We signed Ryu, paid monetary penalties to the max to give Martin an over slot offer and Paxton has a Maple leaf tattooed on his forearm. If we can't lure him to Toronto with the best offer, we're in trouble.

[connorp]

If he had any other agent(advisor) they would have said take slot start your career and get to free agency as soon as possible. Boras is an unreasonable prick at times.

 

That said, we've more than mended fences with Boras. We signed Ryu, paid monetary penalties to the max to give Martin an over slot offer and Paxton has a Maple leaf tattooed on his forearm. If we can't lure him to Toronto with the best offer, we're in trouble.

 

Not sure I’d want to be best offer for Paxton. He seems to be better suited for a bigger spender that’s more willing to absorb the risk. I haven’t read a lot of predictions but one site I read predicted Stroman at 6/140. Yuck to that. Paxton obviously older but he’ll still command a premium I think. I’d rather have Springer (assuming Bauer is out) and some guys like Gausman and Odorizzi if they’re on reasonable deals. Good teams aren’t really bidding up back end guys like that.

[Laika]

Not sure I’d want to be best offer for Paxton. He seems to be better suited for a bigger spender that’s more willing to absorb the risk. I haven’t read a lot of predictions but one site I read predicted Stroman at 6/140. Yuck to that. Paxton obviously older but he’ll still command a premium I think. I’d rather have Springer (assuming Bauer is out) and some guys like Gausman and Odorizzi if they’re on reasonable deals. Good teams aren’t really bidding up back end guys like that.

 

Yeah Toronto already has a flaky top of the rotation arm in Ryu. Adding a second flake would be asking for trouble.

 

In an offseason where the SP FA list is deep, maybe you could snipe Paxton in a bargain contract, but this is not that offseason. He will get paid by some team.... unless COVID finances make this that offseason? I dunno.

[saskjayfan]

Not sure I’d want to be best offer for Paxton. He seems to be better suited for a bigger spender that’s more willing to absorb the risk. I haven’t read a lot of predictions but one site I read predicted Stroman at 6/140. Yuck to that. Paxton obviously older but he’ll still command a premium I think. I’d rather have Springer (assuming Bauer is out) and some guys like Gausman and Odorizzi if they’re on reasonable deals. Good teams aren’t really bidding up back end guys like that.

 

An article predicting 6 140 for Stroman would have had to have been pre-covid and the article would have most certainly have to have been written by Stroman.

 

Given Covid and Injuries I think Paxton is in life for less than what Ryu got. Next year's free agent pitching is really strong as well. I would love to get Paxton if the price was right.

[connorp]

An article predicting 6 140 for Stroman would have had to have been pre-covid and the article would have most certainly have to have been written by Stroman.

 

Given Covid and Injuries I think Paxton is in life for less than what Ryu got. Next year's free agent pitching is really strong as well. I would love to get Paxton if the price was right.

 

We shall see. I’m in agreement he’s the clear #2 SP and it’s be great to snag him at good price but there’s a lot of teams that would like a SP worthy of starting a playoff game (NYY included) and there really isn’t a lot of that available this year. Don’t think he comes cheap, maybe not long term deal though

[connorp]

Here’s the article fwiw. Dug it up. I don’t know if the site is any good

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thegamehaus.com/mlb/projecting-the-2021-mlb-free-agent-class/2020/08/15/amp/

 

Seems was written few weeks into the restart

[G-Snarls]

I would rank them:

 

Bauer

Stroman

Paxton

Richards

Gausman

Ray

Odorizzi

Archer

Tanaka

 

Assuming Pirates do not pick up the option, and Kluber is done.

 

Archer is actually an interesting target. 3.75 FIP in 2018, and apparently battled injuries in 2019. A healthy Archer could be relied on for a sub 4.00 FIP.

 

I'm.sure Montoyo woukd love to reunite with Archer

[Laika]

I would rank them:

 

Bauer

Stroman

Paxton

Richards

Gausman

Ray

Odorizzi

Archer

Tanaka

 

Assuming Pirates do not pick up the option, and Kluber is done.

 

Archer is actually an interesting target. 3.75 FIP in 2018, and apparently battled injuries in 2019. A healthy Archer could be relied on for a sub 4.00 FIP.

 

What type of f***ing ranking is this that has Tanaka last??? You could argue for him as a target over anybody but Bauer.

[Spanky99]

Here’s the article fwiw. Dug it up. I don’t know if the site is any good

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thegamehaus.com/mlb/projecting-the-2021-mlb-free-agent-class/2020/08/15/amp/

 

Seems was written few weeks into the restart

 

Those numbers are too high, this dude is whack! Only the elite won't get the covid tax.

[Spanky99]

What type of f***ing ranking is this that has Tanaka last??? You could argue for him as a target over anybody but Bauer.

 

Tanaka's the clear #2 in that list, it isn't close.

[Jimcanuck]

What type of f***ing ranking is this that has Tanaka last??? You could argue for him as a target over anybody but Bauer.

 

Yes should be higher. I have him low cause of Yankees hate.

[Jimcanuck]

Tanaka's the clear #2 in that list, it isn't close.

 

Huh. Stroman has a FIP < 4 the last 4 years. Tanaka has a FIP > 4 the last 4 years.

[Laika]

Huh. Stroman has a FIP < 4 the last 4 years. Tanaka has a FIP > 4 the last 4 years.

 

they've been in the league the same amount of time. considering their whole careers, talent is close to a wash. Stroman is younger so preferable there and because he doesn't have the weird arm history BUT Stroman may cost more and is a clubhouse problem / distraction while Tanaka is a total pro. Tanaka would be higher on my preference list as a GM.

[Jimcanuck]

they've been in the league the same amount of time. considering their whole careers, talent is close to a wash. Stroman is younger so preferable there and because he doesn't have the weird arm history BUT Stroman may cost more and is a clubhouse problem / distraction while Tanaka is a total pro. Tanaka would be higher on my preference list as a GM.

 

I didn't include intangibles other than the fact Tanaka is/was a Yankee and his arm is hanging on by threads.

[Laika]

I didn't include intangibles other than the fact Tanaka is/was a Yankee and his arm is hanging on by threads.

 

The medical stuff is not straightforward. ~200 more IP than Stroman since their careers began at the same time. ~250 if you include the postseason.

 

At what point should people just not care about Tanaka's UCL damage? It has had almost no negative effect on him in his MLB career - maybe it has prevented him from logging heavy innings but that seems to be it.

 

I'd be inclined to think about his injury risk as pretty damn close to Stroman's going forward.

[Jimcanuck]

The medical stuff is not straightforward. ~200 more IP than Stroman since their careers began at the same time. ~250 if you include the postseason.

 

At what point should people just not care about Tanaka's UCL damage? It has had almost no negative effect on him in his MLB career - maybe it has prevented him from logging heavy innings but that seems to be it.

 

I'd be inclined to think about his injury risk as pretty damn close to Stroman's going forward.

 

We can just agree to disagree on Tanaka. He is not the same pitcher he was and further decline can be expected. Stroman has shown no indications of a decline.

[Spanky99]

Huh. Stroman has a FIP < 4 the last 4 years. Tanaka has a FIP > 4 the last 4 years.

 

Yes, you're correct, closer than I thought, lol. Tanaka's a FIP beater, bruh... I wouldn't be upset with someone like Stroman, would certainly be 2nd on my list.

[max silver]

Missing in the free agent starting pitcher discussion is the qualifying offer. Which of these guys are eligible and likely to receive one, and which of them is actually worth giving up a draft pick for? Bauer (assuming he's eligible) is a lock for the qualifying offer and that won't deter any buyers. If I were the Mets management group I'd saddle Stroman with a qualifying offer as a way to return the favor for opting out the instant he came off of the disabled list. I doubt any of the other remaining starting pitchers are worth sending a qualifying offer to though as some of them would be likely to actually accept it like Odorizzi did last off season (likely a big mistake on his part).

[connorp]

Those numbers are too high, this dude is whack! Only the elite won't get the covid tax.

 

I didn’t find any of the numbers to be weird. If you take off 1 year but keep the same aav, most of the big contracts don’t prompt a second glance ( I already stated wouldn’t do that for Sto though) outside of Semein who likely played himself out of a big contract

[connorp]

Oh and JT didn’t play his way into a mega deal, will still get paid but he was MVP candidate when article was written

[Spanky99]

Missing in the free agent starting pitcher discussion is the qualifying offer. Which of these guys are eligible and likely to receive one, and which of them is actually worth giving up a draft pick for? Bauer (assuming he's eligible) is a lock for the qualifying offer and that won't deter any buyers. If I were the Mets management group I'd saddle Stroman with a qualifying offer as a way to return the favor for opting out the instant he came off of the disabled list. I doubt any of the other remaining starting pitchers are worth sending a qualifying offer to though as some of them would be likely to actually accept it like Odorizzi did last off season (likely a big mistake on his part).

 

Yeah, Bauer, Tanaka, Stroman and maybe Gausman will be qualified.

[saskjayfan]

I feel like people are sleeping on Kluber. He got hit with a comebacker and broke a bone and then had an oblique injury. This year he had a Teres muscle strain. There were no surgeries. These injuries are typically very recoverable. It's not like he has a ton of major arm issues. He could be a very cheap gamble. Tie in a second year option and the risk reward scenario might look pretty tempting if the dollars are low enough. What is Kluber going to get? Does he even get one year 10 mil?

[glory]

JP Richardi was our GM the year Paxton was drafted. I find it hard to believe he holds a grudge from 11 years ago. Also it was Beeston making comments to the globe and mail about the difficulties of dealing with Scott Boras to the media and the NCAA caught hold of this. At the time you were allowed a family advisor but not an agent and the NCAA ruled him ineligible for his final year. The reality is Scott Boras was a pain in the ass. He asked for way too much and said to the player, you're a late 1st round pick..a great year at college and you'll be a top 10 pick and I can get you triple the money. Paxton should have been a Jay. Worked out great for him eventually going to Seattle so he was close to his family.

 

I thought I read (a while ago) that AA handled the draft signings in 2009 with JP on the way out, but I maybe I'm misremembering that. Beeston and Boras' issues are definitely well known so not surprising if Beeston was the culprit on the Jays end. You're right it's been so long, and so much has changed in the front office that I doubt it would be an issue, plus Paxton is coming off injury so he's not going to be as picky about where he goes.