Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[Key22]

What if Orelvis Martinez comes up here and clubs the ball like the next Carlos Delgado - you could probably move him over to first base - release Vogelburgers and non-tender Vladdy and his 0.1WAR saving you $25 million that you can add to the $25 million next year. That money can be earmarked for Soto who you'll need to pay $50m a year and 12 years ($600m) - minimum. That might be light since the Yankees are going to want him so whatever the Yankees offer the Jays would need to offer at least $100m MORE for him to leave the bright lights and a line-up with protection in New York (which the Jays don't have). Being a big star in New York is a little more exciting than in small-time Toronto.

[Key22]

As an aside - Shatkins might deserve some credit for recognizing talent - with all the media and prospect hype with Vladdy - He's going to definitely 100% be a hall of fame - generational talent - walks more than he strikes out - the next Hank Aaron - #1 prospect in all of baseball - the Jays better sign him ASAP or he'll make his $500m someplace else -

 

Yeah - Shatkins was like "mmm - not so sure about that - let's wait and see" - Sometimes it's the deals you don't make that shows whether you're a decent GM - avoiding a big contract 10 year $300m+ contract for Vlad may be the best deal they ever made.

[HomeRunHomer]

I had the same thoughts has you but Orelvis is listed at 5' 11" . You probably would want someone a little bigger to play first but yea if he's mashing you gotta find him a spot to play somewhere.

 

He's only played 2B and DH so far this year and he already has 6 errors in 16 games. Yikes.

[Masterbather]

I have zero doubt that Jays will make a very competitive offer to Soto and be a finalist. After what happened with Ohtani I doubt we get as far as anyone tweeting a signing is imminent, but I really believe we can get Soto an extra 5 or 10 million a year from the Yankees by being in it to the end, so push the Yankees payroll up I guess. That's really the best case scenario and why not... get the Yankees more into the luxury tax.

 

Best case scenario for Vlad is simply a dignified release in November. Try to get him up to .250 with 20 homers and 90 rbis so it isn't completely embarassing and he can think of himself as still a star as he goes onto his next destination (where I have no doubt he will be a massive star).

 

Ohtani was a business decision not a baseball decision. He's a one-of-a-kind unicorn that brings in media and dollars that nobody else would. I don't believe they're going to do something like that again because there's nobody else in baseball like him. He transcends the game. Yankees might lock Soto up before then anyway, I don't mind the idea of the Jays bluffing and forcing the Yankees to up their bid, but I can't see us making a serious offer.

[Spanky99]

What if Orelvis Martinez comes up here and clubs the ball like the next Carlos Delgado - you could probably move him over to first base - release Vogelburgers and non-tender Vladdy and his 0.1WAR saving you $25 million that you can add to the $25 million next year. That money can be earmarked for Soto who you'll need to pay $50m a year and 12 years ($600m) - minimum. That might be light since the Yankees are going to want him so whatever the Yankees offer the Jays would need to offer at least $100m MORE for him to leave the bright lights and a line-up with protection in New York (which the Jays don't have). Being a big star in New York is a little more exciting than in small-time Toronto.

 

That's not how it works, man. lol

[Spanky99]

I had the same thoughts has you but Orelvis is listed at 5' 11" . You probably would want someone a little bigger to play first but yea if he's mashing you gotta find him a spot to play somewhere.

 

He's only played 2B and DH so far this year and he already has 6 errors in 16 games. Yikes.

 

They want him to shore up his footwork at 2nd, before they give him the call. He's not going to play 1B.

[Olerud363]

Ohtani was a business decision not a baseball decision. He's a one-of-a-kind unicorn that brings in media and dollars that nobody else would. I don't believe they're going to do something like that again because there's nobody else in baseball like him. He transcends the game. Yankees might lock Soto up before then anyway, I don't mind the idea of the Jays bluffing and forcing the Yankees to up their bid, but I can't see us making a serious offer.

 

I don't think you can really bluff. They have to make an offer to actually get the Yankees to up their bid. My guess is the Jays will give the highest offer and Yankees will match it, a repeat of the Ohtani thing.

 

Basically they have payroll to spare after 2025 or even after this year if they release Vlad... so need to try and do something with that money.

[Olerud363]

That's not how it works, man. lol

 

Yeah. If they Jays really offerred 100 million more and the Yankees didn't match I believe Soto and his agent are obligated to take the highest offer... kind of a gentlemen's rule that they always have to take best offer in order to keep pushing Salaries up. At least that's my understanding.

[Spanky99]

Yeah. If they Jays really offerred 100 million more and the Yankees didn't match I believe Soto and his agent are obligated to take the highest offer... kind of a gentlemen's rule that they always have to take best offer in order to keep pushing Salaries up. At least that's my understanding.

 

I'm talking about designating Vlad now to save money. That's just not how it works, wishful thinking.

[Olerud363]

I'm talking about designating Vlad now to save money. That's just not how it works, wishful thinking.

 

Yeah. There is actually some weird rule about that where you can only save the money if you release the guy in Spring Training? Like a specific date in late March.

 

If Vlad doesn't turn it around he will be non-tendered in November but not during the season.

[Spanky99]

Yeah. There is actually some weird rule about that where you can only save the money if you release the guy in Spring Training? Like a specific date in late March.

 

If Vlad doesn't turn it around he will be non-tendered in November but not during the season.

 

Correct.

[goldbug103]

It’s how far Fatso has fallen that surprises even an extreme pessimist like myself. This one in a generation prospect can hardly even make loud outs or get the ball in the air. Making the ASG would be vomit inducing. Like here’s an all star 1st baseman with a sub 700 OPS ?

[Olerud363]

It’s how far Fatso has fallen that surprises even an extreme pessimist like myself. This one in a generation prospect can hardly even make loud outs or get the ball in the air. Making the ASG would be vomit inducing. Like here’s an all star 1st baseman with a sub 700 OPS ?

 

He's not making the all star game with a sub 700 OPS. He will be released along side Atkins this November. That's it. Just a holding pattern until then.

[BigCecil]

He's not making the all star game with a sub 700 OPS. He will be released along side Atkins this November. That's it. Just a holding pattern until then.

 

If you read the Board comments on the year end '23 pressers, even many of the FO shills thought Ross should go, especially after throwing Schneider under the bus on the Berrios move, but after 15 minutes of perpetual orgasm listening to the the silver tongue & soothing tones of Mark Shapiro, the Pied Piper who will bring us cup holders, it was all good again.

 

The clean up on aisle 4 was a walk in the park for him. He Made Ross Great Again. #MRGA

[goldbug103]

Couldn’t the Jays try the waiver approach in April with Vlad ? If a club grabs him, they also need to pay the remainder of the inflated salary. Plus we get to see what Horowitz can do. Start fresh with new players.

[Brownie19]

Couldn’t the Jays try the waiver approach in April with Vlad ? If a club grabs him, they also need to pay the remainder of the inflated salary. Plus we get to see what Horowitz can do. Start fresh with new players.

 

God no. Despite all our frustrations with Vlad - he still has value on the trade market.

[Olerud363]

God no. Despite all our frustrations with Vlad - he still has value on the trade market.

 

But does he? Going by recent WAR he has no value. He's reached the same stage WAR wise as Bellinger when he got released.

 

Bellinger had what was viewed to be a severe possibly unfixable mechanical problem and was possibly injured.

 

Is Vlad any different? Severe mechanical problem leading to ground balls and -20 feet due to bad spin on fly balls and potential long term hand/wrist/knee injuries.

[Olerud363]

But does he? Going by recent WAR he has no value. He's reached the same stage WAR wise as Bellinger when he got released.

 

Bellinger had what was viewed to be a severe possibly unfixable mechanical problem and was possibly injured.

 

Is Vlad any different? Severe mechanical problem leading to ground balls and -20 feet due to bad spin on fly balls and potential long term hand/wrist/knee injuries.

 

July 7th 2021 has bothered me for a long time. The optimal launch angle is 25 to 30 degrees

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

55 7 Flyout 106.2 22 411 94.9 .870

16/30

 

 

Alex Verdugo

42 6 Home Run 102.4 33 410 82.3 .640

21/30

 

Vlad was 3 degrees under, Verdugo 3 degrees over. Vlad had 4 mph more. Verdugo pulled his just a bit more.

 

In retrospect this was the day the Jays lost their 2021 playoff spot. It was really the beginning of the end of the Vlad Jr. era. I felt great pain, but wasn't sure why, but deep inside I knew there was something fundamentally wrong with the spin off of Vlad's bat and with Vlad's mechanics even while in the midst of a historic run.

 

22 degrees, 105 mph, 411 feet -- if Vlad get's it a bit higher, or pulls it a bit more Jays win that game and it's a 2 game swing and a playoff spot...

 

33 degrees, 102 mph, 410 feet but pulled just a bit - a mediocre player hits it well and wins the game for the red sox. The ball goes the distance a ball hit like that should go...

 

fast forward 3 years...

 

31 degrees, 109 mph, 396 feet - extreme example but Vlad gets bad spin...

 

tonight when Ohtani hit's it at 109 mph and it goes 440... then Vlad hit's it 109 mph and it goess 405 caught at the fence cheer for them both.

[Brownie19]

But does he? Going by recent WAR he has no value. He's reached the same stage WAR wise as Bellinger when he got released.

 

Bellinger had what was viewed to be a severe possibly unfixable mechanical problem and was possibly injured.

 

Is Vlad any different? Severe mechanical problem leading to ground balls and -20 feet due to bad spin on fly balls and potential long term hand/wrist/knee injuries.

 

Bellinger didn't get released. He was non-tendered and then got $17.5M on a 1 year deal on the open market. If you were thinking of putting Vlad on waiver right now, with the intent of just letting him go for nothing - that would be STUPID. Some team is going to be willing to pick up Vlad's current contract to see if they can fix him - or see if a change of scenery helps. They can then decide to go through the arbitration process at the end of the year, or non-tender him (if they think he's s***).

 

What would we get for him? I still think you'd get a legit prospect.

[AMS528]

I've seen people mentioning the top spin thing a lot, is there any article on this anywhere?

 

Is that even fixable, cause honestly it seems like the weirdest thing that Vlad is this anomalous player who uniquely underperforms his peripherals cause he gets too much topspin when he hits the ball.

[wilko]

I've seen people mentioning the top spin thing a lot, is there any article on this anywhere?

 

Is that even fixable, cause honestly it seems like the weirdest thing that Vlad is this anomalous player who uniquely underperforms his peripherals cause he gets too much topspin when he hits the ball.

 

It's his swing.

[BTS]

He's so f***ing bad

[Olerud363]

Bellinger didn't get released. He was non-tendered and then got $17.5M on a 1 year deal on the open market. If you were thinking of putting Vlad on waiver right now, with the intent of just letting him go for nothing - that would be STUPID. Some team is going to be willing to pick up Vlad's current contract to see if they can fix him - or see if a change of scenery helps. They can then decide to go through the arbitration process at the end of the year, or non-tender him (if they think he's s***).

 

What would we get for him? I still think you'd get a legit prospect.

 

Bellinger was non-tendered because the Dodgers couldn't get a prospect for him because no team thought it was worth it to pay Bellinger and give up a prospect. Why would Vlad be any different right now?

 

If on Waivers maybe someone takes him but I doubt it. What team has an extra 18 million in payroll space and would use it on Vlad ? Most teams will be willing to take on extra salary for 2 months but not 5 so I doubt anyone would pick him up.

[BCZ]

Like f***ing years later vlad hasn’t fixed his ground ball problems holy f*** .. failure of the org and of the player

[BaseballIsLife]

Definitely think the org shares some of the blame for his suckyness. Doesn’t a smart org fix his swing? Look what Baltimore did for O’Hearn and Hicks last year…

[Stangstag]

Like f***ing years later vlad hasn’t fixed his ground ball problems holy f*** .. failure of the org and of the player

 

Yeah I don't think he ever sniffs anything close to his 2021 season again, at least not with this org. It might take a fresh start for him somewhere else to finally realize half of his potential.

[BigCecil]

Watched the E they gave Biggio last night on a great play a couple times this am. Vlad did his big stretch in towards the IF rather than towards the angle Biggio was at from the bag. He totally whiffed on a easily makeable one hopper. His D has been s***.

 

This after just being late on 95 and hitting a lazy FB into RF. wRC+ 103.

 

Bo, Vlad and Springer - top 3 in order - worth combined 0.4 WAR (and Springer is the 0.4) after 27 games. I can't wait for April to be over.

[goldbug103]

In Vlad’s case, I can’t wait until he’s off the team.

[BaseballIsLife]

Watched the E they gave Biggio last night on a great play a couple times this am. Vlad did his big stretch in towards the IF rather than towards the angle Biggio was at from the bag. He totally whiffed on a easily makeable one hopper. His D has been s***.

 

This after just being late on 95 and hitting a lazy FB into RF. wRC+ 103.

 

Bo, Vlad and Springer - top 3 in order - worth combined 0.4 WAR (and Springer is the 0.4) after 27 games. I can't wait for April to be over.

 

I can’t wait for the transition away from the George, Bichette, VGJ era. Boring baseball.

[hanton]

Definitely think the org shares some of the blame for his suckyness. Doesn’t a smart org fix his swing? Look what Baltimore did for O’Hearn and Hicks last year…

 

Exactely, the Dodgers with Muncy, Turner and Taylor - just to name a few (add in JD Martinez as well because I think he worked with some of the same hitting instructors before joining the dodgers). Many examples...