Fire Charlie Montoyo - The thread worked guys!

[Spanky99]

You're playing the odds that your catcher won't get hurt... I mean, your catcher doesn't get hurt in probably 90%+ of games, so they're great odds to play...

 

Still, there's a reason you don't see it done very often.

[saskjayfan]

Yeah. Tellez has a better offensive projection than Panik, but he's so bad that the difference isn't even that big and there might be something about the matchup with Hernandez that would swing things in favour of Panik by a hair. And the other guys sitting are Drury (sucks), Alford (sucks), and the backup C.

 

I'm not a big fan of Montoyo, but outside of Teo, Bo, Biggio, Gurriel, and hopefully Vlad and the catchers soon, he's being asked to rotate replacement level trash through the lineup every day.

 

What did you say about Rowdy going into the season? He strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough. He's struck out 6 times and walked 5 times in 41 plate appearances. If that's all you knew, you'd guess he was having a great year so far. He's had 6 warning track flies. His numbers are going to straighten out if he keeps taking his free passes and limits the Ks...his power is there.

[Laika]

What did you say about Rowdy going into the season? He strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough. He's struck out 6 times and walked 5 times in 41 plate appearances. If that's all you knew, you'd guess he was having a great year so far. He's had 6 warning track flies. His numbers are going to straighten out if he keeps taking his free passes and limits the Ks...his power is there.

 

Tellez' average exit velocity is in the 18th percentile this year. His xwOBA is .298 (31st percentile). Not good signs.

[Deadpool]

Still, there's a reason you don't see it done very often.

 

Well, you didn't. But it's a different equation with a 28 man roster than with 25. I mean, the ONLY time it would become an issue (maybe) is if your catcher gets hurt really early in a close game and your pitcher is throwing well so you don't want to pull him

 

Old-style national league ball sucked, but it's not out of the question to let the pitcher hit once or twice and then pinch hit the rest of the game if you're forced to, and the DH upgrade is worth it.

[Boxcar]

What did you say about Rowdy going into the season? He strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough. He's struck out 6 times and walked 5 times in 41 plate appearances. If that's all you knew, you'd guess he was having a great year so far. He's had 6 warning track flies. His numbers are going to straighten out if he keeps taking his free passes and limits the Ks...his power is there.

 

I believe the general consensus on Rowdy was that he sucks s***, and he has!

[Boxcar]

Tellez' average exit velocity is in the 18th percentile this year. His xwOBA is .298 (31st percentile). Not good signs.

 

We are the only team that could feasibly allow Madison Bumgarner to hit when he demanded it, at least until Fisher comes back.

 

Jesse Winker was there being misused in Cinci but they've figured out that he's good and now hitting at a 164 wRC+ which I expect to continue in perpetuity. Puig doesn't have corona forever, he's sitting there. f*** sakes, may as well call up Kirk, Groshans or Martin at this point. All I see is the FO making no effort to make a clear improvement at an easy position to fill at little to no cost. That's negligence, especially in this season where making the playoffs is very possible. Maybe Ross will address it in 3 years or something.

[Brownie19]

Tellez' average exit velocity is in the 18th percentile this year. His xwOBA is .298 (31st percentile). Not good signs.

 

What was it last year? I mean I agree with saskjayfan. We all kind of agreed that Rowdy needed to get his BB% > 10 and his K% < 20 (like his minor league numbers) to develop into a 120 wRC+ hitter (which is probably required for him to stick in the majors).

 

The SSS BB%/K% is encouraging this year. Encouraging enough that Joe f***ing Panik should never start a game at DH Charlie.

[Laika]

What was it last year? I mean I agree with saskjayfan. We all kind of agreed that Rowdy needed to get his BB% > 10 and his K% < 20 (like his minor league numbers) to develop into a 120 wRC+ hitter (which is probably required for him to stick in the majors).

 

The SSS BB%/K% is encouraging this year. Encouraging enough that Joe f***ing Panik should never start a game at DH Charlie.

 

Better, obviously, but power for strikeouts is a logical tradeoff so it's not like you can just accept the low K rate is a positive development and expect the power to return in a nutshell.

[saskjayfan]

Tellez' average exit velocity is in the 18th percentile this year. His xwOBA is .298 (31st percentile). Not good signs.

 

Yeah Rowdy is a wimp. There's no power there. I get it that he hasn't barreled the ball up this year yet. He was top 10% last year. We're talking about extremely small sample sizes whether you're talking about plate discipline or exit velocity. Rowdy looks fitter and he looks like he's having better at bats. Time will tell if it's a mirage or real transformation. Give up on the big guy. I'm predicting he'll turn things around. There's no upside in Panik. There's actually potential in Rowdy.

[Boxcar]

Yeah Rowdy is a wimp. There's no power there. I get it that he hasn't barreled the ball up this year yet. He was top 10% last year. We're talking about extremely small sample sizes whether you're talking about plate discipline or exit velocity. Rowdy looks fitter and he looks like he's having better at bats. Time will tell if it's a mirage or real transformation. Give up on the big guy. I'm predicting he'll turn things around.

 

What empirical evidence is leading you to believe that he will turn it around?

[Laika]

Yeah Rowdy is a wimp. There's no power there. I get it that he hasn't barreled the ball up this year yet. He was top 10% last year. We're talking about extremely small sample sizes whether you're talking about plate discipline or exit velocity. Rowdy looks fitter and he looks like he's having better at bats. Time will tell if it's a mirage or real transformation. Give up on the big guy. I'm predicting he'll turn things around. There's no upside in Panik. There's actually potential in Rowdy.

 

Rowdy Tellez is a weird hill to die on.

 

I hope he turns into a useful player too but the objective evaluation would be that he is probably a replacement level baseball player.

[saskjayfan]

What empirical evidence is leading you to believe that he will turn it around?

 

I believe I stated it's a combination of the eye test(not allowed, I get it) and his .138 babip will likely rise. He was top 10% in barrels last year. He had good exit velocity last year. Has he sacrificed power to lower his K rate or is he swinging at good pitches and he just hasn't hit them yet? You want to define things with stats, but you also know the sample size isn't large enough to conclude anything. He could just be the same old hitter. I think he's an improved version of last year.

 

I know you nerds can only look at stats. I like Rowdy's swing.

[saskjayfan]

Rowdy Tellez is a weird hill to die on.

 

I hope he turns into a useful player too but the objective evaluation would be that he is probably a replacement level baseball player.

 

Yeah, but what fun would it be to say I think Bo Bichette will be pretty good. If you can't take a bold out of the box stance, what's the point in discussing the player. I'm not betting my house that Rowdy will be a good hitter. I could certainly be wrong again. I just see something there.

[wilko]

Release bass!

[Krylian]

Release bass!

 

Catch and release?

[Brownie19]

Better, obviously, but power for strikeouts is a logical tradeoff so it's not like you can just accept the low K rate is a positive development and expect the power to return in a nutshell.

 

I was going to ask if he's sacrificed power for contact this year...but he was crushing HR's in spring training, so it seems odd he'd completely change his approach once the season started. It's obviously a SSS for any of this, but I do think the BB/K ratio is a positive. There are plenty of examples of players who simply increased their BB% and lowered their K% without sacrificing power - especially when it returns closer to their minor league track record.

[Boxcar]

I believe I stated it's a combination of the eye test(not allowed, I get it) and his .138 babip will likely rise. He was top 10% in barrels last year. He had good exit velocity last year. Has he sacrificed power to lower his K rate or is he swinging at good pitches and he just hasn't hit them yet? You want to define things with stats, but you also know the sample size isn't large enough to conclude anything. He could just be the same old hitter. I think he's an improved version of last year.

 

I know you nerds can only look at stats. I like Rowdy's swing.

 

The thing about the eye test is that it's subjective. My eye test says that Tellez sucks dicks. He swings at bad pitches, isn't very good at making contact, and runs like a lame tortoise. The amount this guy would have to hit to not be a black hole on the roster is very high, and nothing according to my eye test leads me to believe that he will achieve that. Refute my eye test.

[wilko]

The thing about the eye test is that it's subjective. My eye test says that Tellez sucks dicks. He swings at bad pitches, isn't very good at making contact, and runs like a lame tortoise. The amount this guy would have to hit to not be a black hole on the roster is very high, and nothing according to my eye test leads me to believe that he will achieve that. Refute my eye test.

 

At least he realized he was going bald and shaved his head. He's got that going for him...

[Terminator]

When Fisher gets back hopefully Tellez and Panik hit the bench and the DH spot is mostly used to rest the regulars. Buntoyo has a penchant for doing the opposite though. He uses the DH spot to play bench players.

[Laika]

The Charlie Buntoyo experience continues. Here is my savage take down of the decision to have Jansen bunt last night:

 

https://www.radioscouts.com/danny-jansen-should-not-have-bunted/

[glory]

When Fisher gets back hopefully Tellez and Panik hit the bench and the DH spot is mostly used to rest the regulars. Buntoyo has a penchant for doing the opposite though. He uses the DH spot to play bench players.

 

Yeah he will use the DH spot to split time between Tellez, Panik, and Fisher. Montoyo manages like a Little League coach who has to make sure everyone plays. Fisher will probably start a game, then sit on the bench, then start, then bench, etc. In a 60 game season that type of managing makes no sense because there aren't enough games to get everyone an appropriate amount of AB's, so you just need to play your best players and use the bench sparingly. Unfortunately Buntoyo has a combination of no urgency + being bad at his job, and that's going to lead to ugly results.

[Slade]

[saskjayfan]

The Charlie Buntoyo experience continues. Here is my savage take down of the decision to have Jansen bunt last night:

 

https://www.radioscouts.com/danny-jansen-should-not-have-bunted/

 

Your savage take down of asking your number 9 hitter who handles the bat well, but is batting .161 and turns the lineup over for your number 1 and 2 hitters. Give me a break. You said Jansen isn't a practiced bunter in your post yesterday. Players all practice bunting. For all you know he's a very good bunter. I'm sure the coaching staff has an understanding of his skill. Your calculation also failed to recognize the opportunity for a defense to make a mistake and the bunter actual could get to 1st safely. Charlie has given you glaring errors. Sacrifice bunt success ratio is 80% with a good bunter. The play you are so up in arms is probably taking things to the 5th decimal point. The decision to bunt or not to bunt in that situation didn't really make a difference. Charlie blows, but not because of his decision to bunt yesterday.

[Laika]

Your savage take down of asking your number 9 hitter who handles the bat well, but is batting .161 and turns the lineup over for your number 1 and 2 hitters. Give me a break. You said Jansen isn't a practiced bunter in your post yesterday. Players all practice bunting. For all you know he's a very good bunter. I'm sure the coaching staff has an understanding of his skill. Your calculation also failed to recognize the opportunity for a defense to make a mistake and the bunter actual could get to 1st safely. Charlie has given you glaring errors. Sacrifice bunt success ratio is 80% with a good bunter. The play you are so up in arms is probably taking things to the 5th decimal point. The decision to bunt or not to bunt in that situation didn't really make a difference. Charlie blows, but not because of his decision to bunt yesterday.

 

The "savage takedown" words were sarcasm. It doesn't matter much either way.

 

"The play you are so up in arms is probably taking things to the 5th decimal point."

 

that's just... how many decimal points were produced by the basic multiplication. truncate it at round percentages and it doesn't change the point. not sure why people are getting offended at the number of digits. 89438594375894375894375893758943758937458975439 spooky!!

 

I'm comfortable assuming Jansen is not an above average bunter.

 

There are lots of little considerations that it was impossible to work into the simple mathematical example. Most of those other hypothetical scenarios would have little influence next to the broad, prevailing scenarios used in the comparison because they are just very rare. Jansen's chance of bunting for a hit or forced error would be incredibly small. He's slow as s***. You could include something like that with the other bullet points of possible outside considerations but I don't think it changed the point.

[Jonn]

I don’t like bunting but all things considered of all the decisions made by Puntoyo the bunt in that situation was far from the worse one. Jansen has been pretty awful at the plate and he got it down without issue.

[saskjayfan]

The "savage takedown" words were sarcasm. It doesn't matter much either way.

 

"The play you are so up in arms is probably taking things to the 5th decimal point."

 

that's just... how many decimal points were produced by the basic multiplication. truncate it at round percentages and it doesn't change the point. not sure why people are getting offended at the number of digits. 89438594375894375894375893758943758937458975439 spooky!!

 

I'm comfortable assuming Jansen is not an above average bunter.

 

There are lots of little considerations that it was impossible to work into the simple mathematical example. Most of those other hypothetical scenarios would have little influence next to the broad, prevailing scenarios used in the comparison because they are just very rare. Jansen's chance of bunting for a hit or forced error would be incredibly small. He's slow as s***. You could include something like that with the other bullet points of possible outside considerations but I don't think it changed the point.

 

I'm not going to assume Jansen is a bad bunter, and I'm not going to assume he's slow as s***. In fact I'll go with the numbers on this one. His sprint speed last year was 27.3 and 27.9 the year before which is above league average sprint speed.

[saskjayfan]

The thing about the eye test is that it's subjective. My eye test says that Tellez sucks dicks. He swings at bad pitches, isn't very good at making contact, and runs like a lame tortoise. The amount this guy would have to hit to not be a black hole on the roster is very high, and nothing according to my eye test leads me to believe that he will achieve that. Refute my eye test.

 

Tellez numbers improved drastically in one game. He would have completely turned those numbers around if his last foul ball had been 3 inches to the right and hit the foul pole for his 2nd home run. Still 3 for 5 with 2 doubles and a homer is a good start.

[TheHurl]

I'm not going to assume Jansen is a bad bunter, and I'm not going to assume he's slow as s***. In fact I'll go with the numbers on this one. His sprint speed last year was 27.3 and 27.9 the year before which is above league average sprint speed.

 

Like last year when Jansen failed bunting twice...bunted with 2 strikes and only an error from the pitcher saved the player at third from getting out.

 

As for practicing bunting. I asked the question to a major league front office worker "How much time do major league players spend on practicing the bunt" The response "after spring drills, none".

[saskjayfan]

Like last year when Jansen failed bunting twice...bunted with 2 strikes and only an error from the pitcher saved the player at third from getting out.

 

As for practicing bunting. I asked the question to a major league front office worker "How much time do major league players spend on practicing the bunt" The response "after spring drills, none".

 

so the spring training that was a couple weeks ago...gotcha....Charlie Montoyo's decision to have a number 9 hitter bunt...no biggie. Charlie Montoyo using the bunt in tons of other situations where it wasn't warranted. Complain away. Charlie Montoyo's abysmal line up construction. Complain away. Charlie Montoyo's bullpen usage. Complain away. I'll give Charlie a pass on the other night.

[TheHurl]

I have zero issue with Montoyo.