Blue Jays agree to terms with Tanner Roark

[Spanky99]

Do you know what "really" means?

 

 

Egad!

[wk680]

This is really just a head scratcher. We really couldn’t do any better. I don’t even know how he got 2 guaranteed years let alone 12 million per. This is like a spending moneys for the sake of spending kind of move. Hey look we’re doing something. Its not a good something but it’s certainly a something!

 

Is it still a 'thing' to consider 1 WAR worth about $8 million on the free agent market? If so, I think there is a pretty good chance this guy will at least produce 3 WAR over the next 2 seasons to justify that contract. In addition to that, he provides a vetrin presenz that, regardless of what the stat geeks think, is REAL (ask the Nats about Kendrick and Parra, not to mention Scherzer, Rendon and Zimmerman).

 

As far as the bashing of SK because you guys don't like the opinion of the poster who lives there: well that is just typical Southern Ontario BS and demonstrates once again why the rest of the country hates you guys only slightly less than the Quebecois! FOAD

 

ETA: that second comment obviously not directed as Jonn in particular, but the arrogant S. Ontario crowd in general.

[Spanky99]

lol... Sasquatch suxxxx

[Deadpool]

Is it still a 'thing' to consider 1 WAR worth about $8 million on the free agent market? If so, I think there is a pretty good chance this guy will at least produce 3 WAR over the next 2 seasons to justify that contract. In addition to that, he provides a vetrin presenz that, regardless of what the stat geeks think, is REAL (ask the Nats about Kendrick and Parra, not to mention Scherzer, Rendon and Zimmerman).

 

As far as the bashing of SK because you guys don't like the opinion of the poster who lives there: well that is just typical Southern Ontario BS and demonstrates once again why the rest of the country hates you guys only slightly less than the Quebecois! FOAD

 

ETA: that second comment obviously not directed as Jonn in particular, but the arrogant S. Ontario crowd in general.

 

You hate us because we're objectively superior to you, that's painfully obvious...

[The Cats Ass]

I love Saskatoon. If I lived in Ontario my marginal tax rate would be 53.53 not 47.5. My house would cost twice as much. My commute would be much longer. I don't begrudge anyone who loves Toronto and wouldn't live anywhere else.

 

Only an arrogant f***ing loser says an entire province sucks. Saskatchewan is awesome. f*** you.

 

East Coast is where it's at!

[DigitalRock]

take 12 for Roark and 9 mil a year you're paying Anderson and you could have had a decent pitcher.

 

Is this why they say don't do drugs?

[SaskJaysFan_2]

I agree with Saskjayfan. Saskatchewan, particularly Saskatoon (where I live) is an awesome place to live. I have lived in New York, San Diego, Glasgow and London for long stints over the years. Great places all, but Saskatoon is a really fun place with hot women (I mean, incredibly hot), fantastic restaurants, and other nice perks.

 

But I also love TO. I visit there as much as I can. For the Jays, plays, whatever. It's an awesome city.

 

I travel to Ottawa and Halifax for work. I would pick those cities and my second favourites in Canada. Montreal third, followed by Vancouver and then TO.

 

Winnipeg is the ******* of Canada. Gross city.

 

Okay, I am growing to like the Roark signing.

[JaysAllMighty]

I like this signing.

[saskjayfan]

I like this signing.

 

Roark is going to make the Jamie Garcia signing look like a bargain. If somehow the Jays went out and got Ryu, I could overlook this signing. I'm not holding my breath though.

[JaysAllMighty]

Roark is going to make the Jamie Garcia signing look like a bargain.

 

I don't understand all your negativity but to each his own.

[saskjayfan]

I don't understand all your negativity but to each his own.

 

He's an old out of shape shitball fly ball pitcher moving the AL east. When I saw the MLB top 50 prediction page having Roark going the Jays, I said to myself please anyone but Roark. I didn't want Porcello either, but 1 year 10 for Porcello would have been more palatable than watching 2 years of Roark.

[The Cats Ass]

Roark is 1 of only 16 pitchers to get atleast 2 WAR in each of the past 4 seasons. He's been consistently an average pitcher. 2 WAR in the NL is worth the same as 2 WAR in the AL East is it not?

[THANOS]

Roark is 1 of only 16 pitchers to get atleast 2 WAR in each of the past 4 seasons. He's been consistently an average pitcher. 2 WAR in the NL is worth the same as 2 WAR in the AL East is it not?

 

Now I didn't watch him, but looking at his FG page, he doesn't look as awful as some are saying. Comparing him in frustration levels to Dickey for example lol. The dude had a 8.6 K/9 last season and a 2.78 BB/9. He's ok to roster for only 2 yrs.

[Bobthe4th]

Roark is 1 of only 16 pitchers to get atleast 2 WAR in each of the past 4 seasons. He's been consistently an average pitcher. 2 WAR in the NL is worth the same as 2 WAR in the AL East is it not?

 

TBF he's been getting consistently worse every year.

[Rusty_Savage]

Some people are addicted to complaining.

 

The Roark signing is fine. We need atleast one guy who can pitching every five days. He's boring as f*** but he has gotten 30 starts in each of the last four years which is something we desperately need

Edited December 12, 2019 by Rusty_Savage

[THANOS]

TBF he's been getting consistently worse every year.

 

BABIP and HR/9 were up, which led to that, but those could return to normal. His K/9 went up a lot which could be a skill improvement?

[Bobthe4th]

Some people are addicted to complaining.

 

The Roark signing is fine. We need atleast one guy who can pitching every five days. He's boring as f*** but he has gotten 30 starts in each of the last two years which is something we desperately need

 

Yeah exactly. If he was much better, we wouldn't have got him on the same AAV or years. Even in the worst case where he completely implodes in the AL East, it has virtually zero impact on the flexibility of the payroll.

[glory]

Roark is going to have a WAR somewhere between 1.0-2.5 and an ERA around 4.50. Dickey is probably an apt comparison (except for the KB part). The Dickster even in his awful starts could at least soak up innings and he'd have some good ones mixed in amongst the general median of completely average pitching. That's what I'd expect here.

 

There is no upside with this move. Anderson probably has a bit of upside if you believe in his ability to suppress hard contact and be a FIP beater. Roark you just kind of have to accept for what he is.

[Bobthe4th]

Roark is going to have a WAR somewhere between 1.0-2.5 and an ERA around 4.50. Dickey is probably an apt comparison (except for the KB part). The Dickster even in his awful starts could at least soak up innings and he'd have some good ones mixed in amongst the general median of completely average pitching. That's what I'd expect here.

 

There is no upside with this move. Anderson probably has a bit of upside if you believe in his ability to suppress hard contact and be a FIP beater. Roark you just kind of have to accept for what he is.

 

TBF Roark hasn't been signed as an investment, he's here to eat innings.

[THANOS]

Roark is going to have a WAR somewhere between 1.0-2.5 and an ERA around 4.50. Dickey is probably an apt comparison (except for the KB part). The Dickster even in his awful starts could at least soak up innings and he'd have some good ones mixed in amongst the general median of completely average pitching. That's what I'd expect here.

 

There is no upside with this move. Anderson probably has a bit of upside if you believe in his ability to suppress hard contact and be a FIP beater. Roark you just kind of have to accept for what he is.

 

Agreed. And this is acceptable for 2 yrs at that AAV, with our flexibility. Just need some placeholders until guys like Pearson, Manoah and SWR push through anyway.

 

Just hope we can get Ryu so we have an Ace type to set a bar for Pearson.

[Frag]

Cool.

[P2F]

Tanner Roark Heads North

 

by Jake Mailhot

December 12, 2019

Amidst a flurry of activity surrounding Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon at the Winter Meetings, the Blue Jays bolstered their starting rotation with an under-the-radar free agent signing. On Wednesday afternoon, Toronto agreed to a two-year, $24 million deal with Tanner Roark.

The Blue Jays had 21 different pitchers start a game in 2019, the most in the majors. While a handful of these starters were relievers acting as openers, it’s still a shocking amount to work through in a single season. With Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez traded mid-season, there were moments in September when the pitching probables for Toronto were filled with TBDs.

 

After trading for Chase Anderson earlier this offseason, the Blue Jays continued to shore up their thin rotation by adding Roark, and they paid a bit of a premium for his durability. He’s made more than 30 starts in five of the last six seasons, with a stint in the bullpen in 2015 as the lone outlier. And though his innings total dropped to 165 in 2019 after three straight seasons of 180 innings or more, he made 31 starts split between Cincinnati and Oakland. His new pact with the Blue Jays has an average annual value higher than Kiley McDaniel ($10m AAV) or the crowd ($9.6m AAV) projected. With such a shaky rotation, the consistency and reliability of Roark was likely a factor in that slightly elevated salary.

 

 

For a team entering the later stages of a rebuild, the 33-year-old should provide plenty of volume. Beyond that durability, Roark’s profile is rather average. He had some great years for the Nationals towards the beginning of his career, but his peripherals have deteriorated recently. His primary pitch is a decent sinker that averages 92 mph. A few years ago, he started mixing in his four-seam fastball a little more often at the expense of that sinker.

 

http://blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Tanner-Roark-Pitch-Mix.png

 

With modern batters designing swings to elevate the ball, throwing a few more four-seam fastballs seemed like a prudent strategy. He’s able to generate more whiffs with his four-seamer, but those extra swinging strikes come at a significant price. His groundball rate dropped from 48% in 2017 to just 36% in 2019. All that extra lofted contact has resulted in a huge increase in the number of homers allowed. His home run rate really spiked after being traded across the country to Oakland, as he allowed the same number of home runs as an Athletic as he did as a Red in half the innings.

 

 

Not only did the usage of his sinker drop to a career low in 2019, but he started throwing his slider a little more often too. Unfortunately, his ability to generate whiffs with his slider fell with more exposure. Batters swung through his slider around a third of the time while he was with the Nationals, but his slider whiff rate dropped to 21.5% in 2019.

 

 

If he’s open to continuing to tinker with his pitch mix, his curveball looks a little more interesting than any of his other secondary pitches. It’s spin rate sits in the 82nd percentile and possesses excellent vertical movement. For curveballs thrown near the same velocity, it has 4.8 inches more drop than average. That vertical movement translates to a decent amount of whiffs and groundball contact, but he’s only thrown his bender around 13-15% of the time. Paired with his four-seam fastball, his curveball could become a nice weapon for him. His swinging strike rate might not change all that much, but throwing it more often could help him raise his groundball rate a touch and combat his home run problem.

 

 

Barring any other additions, Roark likely slots in as the Blue Jays’ second starter behind Anderson. They’re banking on a couple of seasons of durability with some potential for upside. His profile seems like it would be extremely sensitive to any changes to the ball, but even if the dragless version continues to be used in 2020, his stabilizing presence in Toronto’s rotation is worth the two-year deal.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tanner-roark-heads-north/

[Terminator]

This board usually has pretty good takes but those takes are pretty universally s*** when it comes to RA Dickey. He was legit good for us. If Roark replicates any 2 of the 4 RA9-WAR seasons (particularly 2 of the first 3) that Dickey had with us I'll be happy with the 2 for 24.

[BTS]

This board usually has pretty good takes but those takes are pretty universally s*** when it comes to RA Dickey. He was legit good for us. If Roark replicates any 2 of the 4 RA9-WAR seasons (particularly 2 of the first 3) that Dickey had with us I'll be happy with the 2 for 24.

 

Dickey was good here. I think almost everyone here recognizes that. Watching his starts was terrible though. He very reliably put up 32 useful starts a year that nobody wanted to watch.

[Rusty_Savage]

Dickey was good here. I think almost everyone here recognizes that. Watching his starts was terrible though. He very reliably put up 32 useful starts a year that nobody wanted to watch.

 

That's true. He probably won't be remembered well by Jays fans either and to no fault of his own. But he will always be the 38 yr old knuckleballer we traded Noah Syngerggard for

[Laika]

The 2015 Blue Jays rotation was an amazing group of shitballers.

[Terminator]

Dickey was good here. I think almost everyone here recognizes that. Watching his starts was terrible though. He very reliably put up 32 useful starts a year that nobody wanted to watch.

 

I don't think people did recognize that at the time. On top of it, the board went waaaay further than that haha. The discussions of re-signing him would come up every offseason and rather than take the near guaranteed WAR surplus each year people would start bitching that they wouldn't want him back at all while foregoing any sort of analysis on how it would probably be a good move. I'm pretty sure you would even admit back then that you weren't being rational about it you just simply couldn't stand watching him pitch.

 

Plus, you're all wrong on how it was annoying to watch him pitch anyway. Knuckleballers are cool and he was a good fielder. You would all slob Darren O'Day's knob when he would submarine an 84 mph fastball over the plate but god forbid RA Dickey throw a 77 mph knuckleball. It wasn't his fault AA was a dumbass and traded Thor for him.

[Laika]

I don't think people did recognize that at the time. On top of it, the board went waaaay further than that haha. The discussions of re-signing him would come up every offseason and rather than take the near guaranteed WAR surplus each year people would start bitching that they wouldn't want him back at all while foregoing any sort of analysis on how it would probably be a good move. I'm pretty sure you would even admit back then that you weren't being rational about it you just simply couldn't stand watching him pitch.

 

Plus, you're all wrong on how it was annoying to watch him pitch anyway. Knuckleballers are cool and he was a good fielder. You would all slob Darren O'Day's knob when he would submarine an 84 mph fastball over the plate but god forbid RA Dickey throw a 77 mph knuckleball. It wasn't his fault AA was a dumbass and traded Thor for him.

 

Not to mention Mark Buehrle who was in the same rotation. One guy throws 86 and gets outs - amazing television! The other guy throws a 79 mph knuckler and gets outs - horrible to watch!

[dineke]

Dickey was pretty awesome for the Mets but as soon as he came here it was like the league adjusted to him.

 

He can still probably pitch today, sign him up Atkins.

[BTS]

I don't think people did recognize that at the time. On top of it, the board went waaaay further than that haha. The discussions of re-signing him would come up every offseason and rather than take the near guaranteed WAR surplus each year people would start bitching that they wouldn't want him back at all while foregoing any sort of analysis on how it would probably be a good move. I'm pretty sure you would even admit back then that you weren't being rational about it you just simply couldn't stand watching him pitch.

 

Plus, you're all wrong on how it was annoying to watch him pitch anyway. Knuckleballers are cool and he was a good fielder. You would all slob Darren O'Day's knob when he would submarine an 84 mph fastball over the plate but god forbid RA Dickey throw a 77 mph knuckleball. It wasn't his fault AA was a dumbass and traded Thor for him.

 

I remember explicitly stating that I didn't want him back even though he was worth the money because I hated seeing him on the mound, so you are correct.

 

Also, how dare you compare him to a gem like O'Day (and Laika to Buehrle for that matter). Those guys had the decency to at least pound the zone with their s***** stuff, and Buehrle was good for a crisp 2-hour game every once in a while. Dickey was a mess of full-counts, passed balls and wild pitches, and always managed to look utterly shocked when someone hit a sub-80 mph meatball 430 feet. He also has an annoying face. The whole package was of similar aesthetic caliber to watching CC Sabathia and his giant gut flopping all over the place. Very off-putting and unpleasant to watch.