Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[Deadpool]

I think this approach is fine once you're already a contender (or at the very least on the cusp of being one) with an established core and young pieces that you can afford to move, but the Jays really aren't in that position. they can't afford to move meaningful prospects at this point. I know there's talk about moving Jansen or McGuire...but what are you really going to get for McGuire, and who do they plan on playing 120 games if they move Jansen?

 

If they move Jansen it had better be for a package that makes everyone go "HOLY f***, DOES THAT GM HAVE BRAIN DAMAGE?" otherwise it just doesn't make sense... Particularly after non-tendering Maile (not that a McGuire/Maile tandem is going to make anyone tingly in their down there places...)

[glory]

Ryu is probably going to require a four year deal, which I'd be fine with even though it would scare the crap out of me. The cost of free agency is usually adding one more year than everyone else, or a lot more AAV than everyone else, and some times the latter may not even be enough. If Ryu would take a four year deal and we can front load it so that his riskier years are cheaper, then I'd be ok with it. I don't expect him to sign here, too many teams willing to overpay for pitching and Shatkins is very risk averse, but something like 4/72 or 4/80 (while an overpay for his age/injury risk) is probably a risk the Jays can afford to take at this point. If you're going to take a chance, then the upside has to be high. Ryu at his best is an ace or damn close to one. You're probably not going to get that ceiling for $72-80m in a conventional off season. Ryu has enough warts to be a realistic target, even though I expect him to sign with the Angels or Dodgers at this point.

[P2F]

According to Steamer, the Jays currently project for ~75 wins with the Roark addition. Signing Ryu (2.9 WAR) would get them to ~78 and there are so many areas they could feasibly nickle and dime their way to improving significantly.

 

Allow me to demonstrate.

 

Bullpen:

Collin McHugh - 2/12 - 6 AAV - 0.6 WAR

Craig Stammen - 2/10 - 5 AAV - 0.4 WAR

 

Infield:

Cesar Hernandez - 1/6 - 6 AAV - 2.1 WAR

Yoshitomo Tsutsugo - 4/36 - 9 AAV - 2 WAR?

 

 

Other Ideas:

Sign one or two of the Alex Wood (1.1), Taijuan Walker (0.9), Jimmer Nelson (0.9), and Drew Smyly (0.9) types as inexpensive depth with plausible upside that could be used in various roles. It's likely that none of these guys project as pure starters going forward, but you limit their innings and utilize them in various roles out of the bullpen (long-men, post-openers, or possibly as mid-to-late inning relief arms). Just sign the two cheapest ones and hope that one of them performs well.

 

f*** off:

Richard Urena (0)

Breyvic Valera (0.1)

Brandon Drury (0.6)

Billy McKinney (0.2)

Jonathan Davis (0.2)

Anthony Alford (-0.1)

 

When you combine everything outlined above, my feelings are that everything here is reasonable and attainable. It's not at all out of reach to move the projected win total closer to 85 by the beginning of the season with Ryu + Tsutsugo + cheap, simple upgrades. And while it's not the expected goal for next season, an 85 projected-win total would give the Jays an outside shot at contending for a wildcard spot if some things break in their favour and they look to add during the season if they find themselves in a favourable position.

 

You have to assume it's going to take ~95 wins to get in. They're honestly not that far off from that mark and, even after a potential series of moves like the ones above, they still maintain their flexibility going forward. And I didn't even mention the prospects that haven't debuted yet, like Nate Pearson. It's also not difficult to envision a few of Bichette (3.2), Biggio (2.2), Hernandez (0.2), Jansen/McGuire (3.8), Giles (1), Roark (1.4), Thornton (1.3), and Anderson (0.8) surpassing their WAR projections to varying degrees. Ryu (4/80), too, if he signs.

 

The team then looks more like this:

 

1. Bichette, SS (3.2)

2. Biggio, 2B (2.2)

3. Guerrero Jr., 3B (3.5)

4. Gurriel Jr., LF (1.5)

5. Tsutsugo, 1B (2?)

6. Grichuk, CF (1.7)

7. T. Hernandez, RF/DH (0.2)

8. Jansen, C (2.2)

9. Fisher, RF/DH (0.6)

 

BN: C. Hernandez (super-utility type that starts most games, 2.1), McGuire (1.6), Tellez (1.2 lol)

 

SP - Ryu (2.9)

SP - Roark (1.4)

SP - Anderson (0.8)

SP - Thornton (1.3)

SP - Shoemaker (1.4)

 

OP - Font (0.4)

 

RP - Giles (1)

RP - McHugh (0.6)

RP - Stammen (0.4)

RP - Bass (0.4)

RP - Gaviglio (0.3)

RP - Reid-Foley (0.1)

RP - Cole (0)

RP - Wood (1.1)

 

Plus all the extra noise and contributions from the shuttle and that's roughly an 85-win team that:

 

a. Isn't bogged down by any albatross or super lengthy contracts

b. Maintains some payroll flexibility (~$130M payroll by my rough calculations)

c. Has Tulo's contract coming off the books soon ($14M this year, 4M next)

d. Will get significantly better, organically

e. Is deep on the farm and will have waves of talent breaking through every season

 

Honestly, they might even be better off saving a few million and signing a few semi-intriguing relievers to minor league deals and hoping for a couple of surprise seasons instead of signing the McHughs and Stammens of the world, but I digress.

 

This roster allows the team to be competitive on a reasonable payroll while the young core continues to develop and improve to the point that it's a perennial contender.

 

While in some ways it would be a shame to forego the tremendous payroll flexibility they have right now, it sort of renders it pointless to have and brag about if it's not utilized. By the time the young core hits arb, some of these contracts will be off the books and a few of the prospects within the org will have forced their way into the picture. Rinse and repeat.

 

Sustained winning = good times had by all.

Edited December 13, 2019 by P2F

[TheHurl]

I just don’t get this board’s obsession with Ryu. He doesn’t fit our timeline and there’s no way he’s coming here on just a 3 year deal.

 

Think of it this way. If Ryu was a free agent next year instead, would you want to sign him when he’d be just turning 34 at the beginning of the season? Your answer would surely be “depends on what he does in 2020” right? Let someone who is in win now mode (and therefore 2020 is much more important to them) overpay him instead.

 

Jays have 2 spots remaining and about 3 or so that can be ditched. Not all of the 5 pieces have to fit in the timeline you believe the Jays have. Reds added $25M in payroll last year hoping that Kemp, Puig, Wood and Roark would return them some assets that could help them in the future. Just because that didn't exactly work out (it kind of landed them Bauer, although costing them Trammell). Jays should be thinking about any possible way to improve their team for when they feel they are going to compete.

[Ray]

Keep Valera, ditch Urena.

[Carlos Danger]

Corey Dickerson, Kole Calhoun, Travis Shaw are the lefties I’d be targeting.

 

Tauchman!

[Barkerfan23]

I feel like there is a chance you will see one of our young pitchers not named Pearson surprise us and break out as a top of the rotation guy

[Krylian]

I feel like there is a chance you will see one of our young pitchers not named Pearson surprise us and break out as a top of the rotation guy

 

Manoah or Richardson?

[THANOS]

Manoah or Richardson?

 

I could see it. Both look dominant so far. We could see the latter in 2020 possibly, but more likely in 2021.

[Barkerfan23]

Manoah or Richardson?

 

I was thinking more from the batch we have already seen. It does happen at times in baseball

[Orgfiller]

I could see it. Both look dominant so far. We could see the latter in 2020 possibly, but more likely in 2021.

 

Hold your horses there partner, we'll be lucky if SWR sniffs AAA the upcoming season, let alone get a look in the bigs barring actual catastrophe. He's going to start the year out at Dunedin for at least a month or two and then ideally move to New Hampshire where he continues to dominate. Best case scenario for SWR is he's a force the entire season and gets a couple of starts in AAA to end the year.

[wk680]

I feel like there is a chance you will see one of our young pitchers not named Pearson surprise us and break out as a top of the rotation guy

 

Yeah there is a chance but seems a longshot for any of the guys we have seen at AAA and above (other than Pearson). Obviously the chance one of these guys could be a 'mid-rotation' guy is more realistic.

[wk680]

this was stated in a Shi David article:

"But their financial flexibility won’t disappear in a year or two, either, since changes to the way the Blue Jays operate on the business side means they should be able to spend beyond the club record payrolls in the $160 million range if they are contending again."

 

Anyone here know what these supposed changes are to which he is referring ?

[Grant77]

this was stated in a Shi David article:

"But their financial flexibility won’t disappear in a year or two, either, since changes to the way the Blue Jays operate on the business side means they should be able to spend beyond the club record payrolls in the $160 million range if they are contending again."

 

Anyone here know what these supposed changes are to which he is referring ?

 

Selling fewer tickets?

[Abomination]

this was stated in a Shi David article:

"But their financial flexibility won’t disappear in a year or two, either, since changes to the way the Blue Jays operate on the business side means they should be able to spend beyond the club record payrolls in the $160 million range if they are contending again."

 

Anyone here know what these supposed changes are to which he is referring ?

 

Just as a guess, they're probably receiving more of the revenue cut that they produce for the media division.

[Deadpool]

I was thinking more from the batch we have already seen. It does happen at times in baseball

 

Zoinks is the guy with all the physical tools to be a beast of a pitcher, I doubt it happens given how it's gone so far, but if one guy was going to "click" and become a front-line guy, it's probably him.

[saskjayfan]

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20191211006400315?section=sports/sports

 

This article gives me hope. Ryu is a realistic option for the Jays. For goodness sake go get Ryu. Give him 4 years.

[Ex Player]

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20191211006400315?section=sports/sports

 

This article gives me hope. Ryu is a realistic option for the Jays. For goodness sake go get Ryu. Give him 4 years

Its really strange the Dodgers dont want to re-sign him

[THANOS]

Hold your horses there partner, we'll be lucky if SWR sniffs AAA the upcoming season, let alone get a look in the bigs barring actual catastrophe. He's going to start the year out at Dunedin for at least a month or two and then ideally move to New Hampshire where he continues to dominate. Best case scenario for SWR is he's a force the entire season and gets a couple of starts in AAA to end the year.

 

This is the most likely scenario for sure, pending he produces at the same rate as 2019. That said, if he turns it up, and the peripherals all improve much more than expected, maybe he does make the leap in late 2020?

 

Even so, the chances are very slim, for service time reasons, but I do think an outcome exists where it could happen. With Manoah though, I think it's nearly 0%.

 

this was stated in a Shi David article:

"But their financial flexibility won’t disappear in a year or two, either, since changes to the way the Blue Jays operate on the business side means they should be able to spend beyond the club record payrolls in the $160 million range if they are contending again."

 

Anyone here know what these supposed changes are to which he is referring ?

 

That's extremely interesting. It might be a change in revenue allocation. It never accurately attributed cable revenue in the past. Maybe it's now based on viewers?

[Laika]

this was stated in a Shi David article:

"But their financial flexibility won’t disappear in a year or two, either, since changes to the way the Blue Jays operate on the business side means they should be able to spend beyond the club record payrolls in the $160 million range if they are contending again."

 

Anyone here know what these supposed changes are to which he is referring ?

 

It might not mean much. This regime has done some things to optimize gate revenues - maybe that's all Shi is referring to, the modernized and streamlined business practices of the team. In theory that's more revenue and a slightly higher payroll could be a result but for all we know Rogers will want to just keep to money.

[Orgfiller]

Zoinks is the guy with all the physical tools to be a beast of a pitcher, I doubt it happens given how it's gone so far, but if one guy was going to "click" and become a front-line guy, it's probably him.

 

I disagree. All Zoinks has going for him is he's tall lol. For a groundball specialist his control was pretty bad, his secondaries looked super average and the velocity may even be below average for a RHP. His best case scenario is a really really poor man's Derek Lowe and those guys don't even exist anymore. If everything clicks for him he's still probably nowhere near a front line starter.

 

The best pitchers that we saw last season in terms of "they'd be great if they threw strikes consistently/had great command of their pitches" are Kay and SRF. The latter pretty much has to be a reliever at this point, and Kay still shows promise that he can control the walks and get a bunch of strikeouts.

[Orgfiller]

This is the most likely scenario for sure, pending he produces at the same rate as 2019. That said, if he turns it up, and the peripherals all improve much more than expected, maybe he does make the leap in late 2020?

 

Even so, the chances are very slim, for service time reasons, but I do think an outcome exists where it could happen. With Manoah though, I think it's nearly 0%.

 

His best case scenario is he follows Deivi Garcia's 2019 to a tee, and that's capped at a few starts in AAA to end the year like I said. Jose Suarez is another guy that blew up in the minors in 2018 and he still only got as high as AAA despite belonging to an organization that has needed starting pitching for the last ten years. It's just not happening.

[L54]

Out of those three, who's your #1 pick?

 

Probably Dickerson but they’re basically all the same. Shaw would be cheapest but also the riskiest.

[L54]

Tauchman!

 

Not a FA but he’s a good target too.

[Barkerfan23]

200

 

Over/Under number of times Fisher strikes out next season

[Olerud363]

200

 

Over/Under number of times Fisher strikes out next season

 

Under because he won't get enough playing time.

 

If it's over it's probably a really good thing. I can't see a scenario where Fisher is playing terrible but gets enough at bats for 200 strike outs.

 

If he's as bad as last year the experiment ends eventually...

 

If he is better than last year and half decent, but not a breakout he still platoons and shares time.

 

It's only if he's doing pretty good, that he gets enough playing time to strike out 200 times...

 

And yes, he could strike out 200 times in 430 at bats... but it's unlikely he even gets 430 at bats if that's the deal. 200 strikeouts would only occur in a 500+ at bat sort of decent season.

[Deadpool]

I disagree. All Zoinks has going for him is he's tall lol. For a groundball specialist his control was pretty bad, his secondaries looked super average and the velocity may even be below average for a RHP. His best case scenario is a really really poor man's Derek Lowe and those guys don't even exist anymore. If everything clicks for him he's still probably nowhere near a front line starter.

 

The best pitchers that we saw last season in terms of "they'd be great if they threw strikes consistently/had great command of their pitches" are Kay and SRF. The latter pretty much has to be a reliever at this point, and Kay still shows promise that he can control the walks and get a bunch of strikeouts.

 

My thought is that he's got the body type where he SHOULD have a beast of a fastball, and for me he's the most likely to tweak/change something in his delivery to unlock front-of-the-rotation stuff. I don't think it's likely to happen, but I don't think it's likely for SRF or Boureki or whomever (Of that group, I think Kay's probably the most likely to have the best career, but he probably caps out as a good #3 even in the best case scenario.)

[KevinGregg]

https://bluejaysnation.com/2019/12/12/lets-make-a-deal-for-david-price-and-andrew-benintendi/

 

Has this idea been discussed at all? I would bring back Price and his contract if it came with Benintendi for sure

[Orgfiller]

My thought is that he's got the body type where he SHOULD have a beast of a fastball, and for me he's the most likely to tweak/change something in his delivery to unlock front-of-the-rotation stuff. I don't think it's likely to happen, but I don't think it's likely for SRF or Boureki or whomever (Of that group, I think Kay's probably the most likely to have the best career, but he probably caps out as a good #3 even in the best case scenario.)

 

It doesn't really work like that. Jon Rauch was 6'11 and he topped out at 90. You can't just change something in your delivery so that you suddenly throw 98 with a hammer curve, there has to be some substance there in the first place. I don't see anything about Zeuch suggesting he might have TOR stuff.

[Abomination]

https://bluejaysnation.com/2019/12/12/lets-make-a-deal-for-david-price-and-andrew-benintendi/

 

Has this idea been discussed at all? I would bring back Price and his contract if it came with Benintendi for sure

 

I'm not sure what to say to that. Price is probably worth 20M / year for the next three years on the open market. Are the three arbitration years for Benintendi worth 36M + salary? I actually think they might not be. I wouldn't rage in the streets or anything - in fact, I'd probably be happy about the upgrade - but I'm not sure we'd be getting the value for our money. Ozuna + Bumgarner might be pretty similar in cost per year, and almost certainly would outperform Price and Benintendi.