Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[Barkerfan23]

Oakland won 68, 69, and 75 games from 2015 to 2017. People were wondering out loud if Billy Beane had lost it. They then put up consecutive 97-win seasons.

 

The Rays were under 0.500 for 4 straight years. Nobody saw them as contenders in 2018, but they've won 90 and 96 games the last two years.

 

The Twins lost 103 games in 2016. The last three years they've won 85, 78, and 101 games.

 

The Cubs won 73 games in 2014. They gave Jon Lester a big contract that offseason, even though everyone thought they were a couple years from contention. They won 97 games the following year and the WS in 2016.

 

The Braves won 72 games in 2017. Nobody saw them as contenders in 2018, but their young guys pushed and they've won consecutive division titles.

 

The point I'm trying to make is that this team isn't Miami or Baltimore. There is a plethora of very talented MLB-ready talent. It wouldn't be that surprising if the lineup, supplemented by a piece or two this offseason, ends up being one of the better groups of position players in baseball this year. It's not the most likely outcome, but it wouldn't be shocking in the same way it would be shocking if Baltimore ended up having top-10 lineup.

 

If you have an opportunity to add 2020 wins while subtracting nothing from the future, you do it. There is no reason to sit on a 70M payroll in 2020 if there are opportunities to add 30M in short-term deals that pushes the win projection up by 4-5. Probably it won't have playoff implications. But there's a small chance that it could. Winning 83 games on a 70M payroll should be a fireable offense.

 

Damn that's a good post

 

I know I'd be pissed if Vlad exploded next year our offense took steps forward and we are throwing Waguespack out there

[P2F]

The Jays' offense had the 10th-best wRC+ from July 1 to the end of the season. They're already probably pretty good with the bats.

 

Now is the time to supplement with a few FA infusions. If anyone here has listened to Radio Scouts Podcast in the past couple of months, you've heard me/us preach this countless times. As BTS said, it's not out of the question that a few of their young bats could out-produce their projections and suddenly they're a better team than most thought they would be. It would be egregious to ignore FA this offseason.

[Laika]

The general sentiment about supplementing now is correct, but I think the Lester hypothetical is taking it a bit too far.

[Barkerfan23]

If no one else does

 

Would you guys do 5/100 For the most accomplished playoff pitcher in the free agency

[BTS]

The general sentiment about supplementing now is correct, but I think the Lester hypothetical is taking it a bit too far.

 

It's a moot point anyway, because teams don't liquidate good prospects to shed salary. IIRC the only time it's ever really happened was when Arizona gave Atlanta Toussaint to eat Bronson Arroyo's contract.

[Laika]

It's a moot point anyway, because teams don't liquidate good prospects to shed salary. IIRC the only time it's ever really happened was when Arizona gave Atlanta Toussaint to eat Bronson Arroyo's contract.

 

To a lesser extent the Liriano - McGuire deal is an example. Hilarious how the Pirates are now looking for a decent young C.

 

The Cubs would probably add grade B or C prospects to shed enough salary.

[Carlos Danger]

If no one else does

 

Would you guys do 5/100 For the most accomplished playoff pitcher in the free agency

 

No- You are talking about past performance, which is not indicative of future and current at that age and injury history.

 

Look at Hurl's post about all the guys non-tendered and the previous WAR numbers they put up... Really good numbers, but still non-tendered, because a lot of ML brain trusts do not think sustainable going fwd or not same player.

[Bobthe4th]

The Jays' offense had the 10th-best wRC+ from July 1 to the end of the season. They're already probably pretty good with the bats.

 

Now is the time to supplement with a few FA infusions. If anyone here has listened to Radio Scouts Podcast in the past couple of months, you've heard me/us preach this countless times. As BTS said, it's not out of the question that a few of their young bats could out-produce their projections and suddenly they're a better team than most thought they would be. It would be egregious to ignore FA this offseason.

 

There's as much chance of the core underperforming their projections. If just a couple do and added to Bo and Vlad only matching their projections, then we would be shelled this year. Ignore free agents no, but we shouldn't be doing anything that risks future flexibility (e.g. overpaying for top end free agents to convince them to come here) in a attempt to add a few wins. Obviously we shouldn't ignore any deals that improve the team beyond the next couple of years, but we shouldn't be desperate to make such deals right now.

[P2F]

I didn't say or imply that the team should be reckless with their acquisitions, Bob. It would absolutely behoove the Jays to get ahead of the game and sign a couple of pitchers from the current deep crop of FA pitchers this offseason, even if they don't think they have a realistic chance of making the playoffs in 2020. To leave it all to next offseason would be poor planning. You can't just expect the stars to align and everything to all into place at the perfect timing. Next year's FA crop of pitchers does not inspire much confidence.

 

They do not need to break the bank to accomplish this. One of Ryu or Kecuhel on a 3-year deal and Lindblom for 3-4 years at a reasonable rate and suddenly the team is in a much more favourable position in future years. Couple those signings with whichever pitchers emerge as legit MLB arms from the group of Pearson, SWR, Kay, Murray, Murphy, Wincky, Manoah, Kloff, etc. and complementary rotation pieces like Anderson, Thornton, Borucki, and Font as a possible opener, and things are starting to look pretty exquisite.

[Ray]

I didn't say or imply that the team should be reckless with their acquisitions, Bob. It would absolutely behoove the Jays to get ahead of the game and sign a couple of pitchers from the current deep crop of FA pitchers this offseason, even if they don't think they have a realistic chance of making the playoffs in 2020. To leave it all to next offseason would be poor planning. You can't just expect the stars to align and everything to all into place at the perfect timing. Next year's FA crop of pitchers does not inspire much confidence.

 

They do not need to break the bank to accomplish this. One of Ryu or Kecuhel on a 3-year deal and Lindblom for 3-4 years at a reasonable rate and suddenly the team is in a much more favourable position in future years. Couple those signings with whichever pitchers emerge as legit MLB arms from the group of Pearson, SWR, Kay, Murray, Murphy, Wincky, Manoah, Kloff, etc. and complementary rotation pieces like Anderson, Thornton, Borucki, and Font as a possible opener, and things are starting to look pretty exquisite.

 

If we wait until 2021 to spend on free agents, the contracts will overlap with Cavan/Bo/Vlads arbitration years. There goes the “financial flexibility”.

 

Right now would exactly be the time to splurge on a 3-4 year deal. It would expire just as the core is hitting their expensive years.

[Bobthe4th]

I didn't say or imply that the team should be reckless with their acquisitions, Bob. It would absolutely behoove the Jays to get ahead of the game and sign a couple of pitchers from the current deep crop of FA pitchers this offseason, even if they don't think they have a realistic chance of making the playoffs in 2020. To leave it all to next offseason would be poor planning. You can't just expect the stars to align and everything to all into place at the perfect timing. Next year's FA crop of pitchers does not inspire much confidence.

 

They do not need to break the bank to accomplish this. One of Ryu or Kecuhel on a 3-year deal and Lindblom for 3-4 years at a reasonable rate and suddenly the team is in a much more favourable position in future years. Couple those signings with whichever pitchers emerge as legit MLB arms from the group of Pearson, SWR, Kay, Murray, Murphy, Wincky, Manoah, Kloff, etc. and complementary rotation pieces like Anderson, Thornton, Borucki, and Font as a possible opener, and things are starting to look pretty exquisite.

 

That's fine, except Ryu (and to a lesser extent Keuchel) would be risky. What possible reason would either have for coming here right now other than money? Ryu especially would demand exactly the kind of overpay that I'd be strongly against when considering his injury risk and that the first year is wasted. It's simply not easy to add people of that quality when many other teams need pitching just as much as we do, but have more urgency and more to offer.

 

I also don't agree with the approach that we have to sign people now for the future. There will be free agents who have Wheeler like years and are suddenly much more attractive, and there are trades and the international market.

[Bobthe4th]

Despite the lack of rumours, hopefully the Giles trade returns at least one player who is close to the big leagues. I’d be really disappointed if we got a kid and a 40 man surplus player who a team is looking to get rid of anyway.

[Deadpool]

 

Arm looks good from the video, and on a minor league deal there's literally no risk here. Excellent move!

 

Anyone know anything about him?

[Orgfiller]

 

PitchingNinja is the gift that keeps on giving. Good for Dykstra, the stuff is strong so hopefully he can transition well to the bigs if he makes it.

[Brownie19]

Looks like a nice live arm. His minor league numbers suggest he induces a lot of ground balls too.

[Deadpool]

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa503397&position=P

 

Assume that's him, looks like he's worked as a starter in the past, but most likely on board as a reliever.

[jaysguy44]

Travis Shaw?

[TheHurl]

PitchingNinja is the gift that keeps on giving. Good for Dykstra, the stuff is strong so hopefully he can transition well to the bigs if he makes it.

 

He's a former lawyer. He should match up his talents and act as an agent for unsigned talent.

[xposbrad]

Oakland won 68, 69, and 75 games from 2015 to 2017. People were wondering out loud if Billy Beane had lost it. They then put up consecutive 97-win seasons.

 

The Rays were under 0.500 for 4 straight years. Nobody saw them as contenders in 2018, but they've won 90 and 96 games the last two years.

 

The Twins lost 103 games in 2016. The last three years they've won 85, 78, and 101 games.

 

The Cubs won 73 games in 2014. They gave Jon Lester a big contract that offseason, even though everyone thought they were a couple years from contention. They won 97 games the following year and the WS in 2016.

 

The Braves won 72 games in 2017. Nobody saw them as contenders in 2018, but their young guys pushed and they've won consecutive division titles.

 

The point I'm trying to make is that this team isn't Miami or Baltimore. There is a plethora of very talented MLB-ready talent. It wouldn't be that surprising if the lineup, supplemented by a piece or two this offseason, ends up being one of the better groups of position players in baseball this year. It's not the most likely outcome, but it wouldn't be shocking in the same way it would be shocking if Baltimore ended up having top-10 lineup.

 

If you have an opportunity to add 2020 wins while subtracting nothing from the future, you do it. There is no reason to sit on a 70M payroll in 2020 if there are opportunities to add 30M in short-term deals that pushes the win projection up by 4-5. Probably it won't have playoff implications. But there's a small chance that it could. Winning 83 games on a 70M payroll should be a fireable offense.

 

One minor thing, Yanks + Red Sox are in this division. With baseball teams, you can't just say the makeup of Team X equates to Team Y. Every single one of those teams is entirely different than Toronto. That's like saying, well if Oakland can do it, then the Marlins can next year lol. I get your point, but look at this roster and the holes everywhere. No one even expects this team to be even near .500 next year. I think that's why a lot of teams sit on big payroll flexibility until their core is developed and they are ready to compete.

[TheHurl]

One minor thing, Yanks + Red Sox are in this division.

 

And the Rays are not?

[Deadpool]

One minor thing, Yanks + Red Sox are in this division. With baseball teams, you can't just say the makeup of Team X equates to Team Y. Every single one of those teams is entirely different than Toronto. That's like saying, well if Oakland can do it, then the Marlins can next year lol. I get your point, but look at this roster and the holes everywhere. No one even expects this team to be even near .500 next year. I think that's why a lot of teams sit on big payroll flexibility until their core is developed and they are ready to compete.

 

They were 15 games below .500 last season, I think it's extremely plausible that they win 15 more games in 2020 even without ANY major additions.

 

I would be extremely annoyed if they made no major additions, but I mean, even if Vladdy just hits the way we expected him to in 2019 we're halfway there.

[Ray]

Fangraphs has us projected for 20.3 offensive WAR next season, which is not that far from the Rays (21.7), the Mets (20.8), and Indians (22.4). And that's incredibly conservative given our young team. They could easily outperform that and be an above average hitting team next season like they were past Bichette's call up.

 

But yes, go on about how we shouldn't add pitching and waste a year of Bichette, Vlad, Cavan, and Gurriel all making pennies.

[BTS]

Fangraphs has us projected for 20.3 offensive WAR next season, which is not that far from the Rays (21.7), the Mets (20.8), and Indians (22.4). And that's incredibly conservative given our young team. They could easily outperform that and be an above average hitting team next season like they were past Bichette's call up.

 

But yes, go on about how we shouldn't add pitching and waste a year of Bichette, Vlad, Cavan, and Gurriel all making pennies.

 

Not to mention, maybe one of the better catching tandems in baseball. The bats have massive upside as soon as 2020.

[Laika]

Fangraphs has us projected for 20.3 offensive WAR next season, which is not that far from the Rays (21.7), the Mets (20.8), and Indians (22.4). And that's incredibly conservative given our young team. They could easily outperform that and be an above average hitting team next season like they were past Bichette's call up.

 

But yes, go on about how we shouldn't add pitching and waste a year of Bichette, Vlad, Cavan, and Gurriel all making pennies.

 

Not really, the variance is just higher in either direction; they could very well be much better or much worse.

[Spanky99]

[TheHurl]

Not really, the variance is just higher in either direction; they could very well be much better or much worse.

 

I remember saying the same thing about SD last year how they were projected around 21 and I figured they could end up much higher. Including the 5th best defense in the majors last year...they ended up at 13.4 with an 88 wRC+. Guessing the Jays next year would be incredibly tough, especially now before we actually know the roster.

[Ray]

Not really, the variance is just higher in either direction; they could very well be much better or much worse.

 

I'm hoping it's the latter with our 5th best in the AL offense post trade deadline (106 wRC+).

 

Yes, small sample sizes and all that, but it's encouraging. Especially when our 2nd half consisted of the much tougher schedule.

[Ray]

Not necessarily the most encouraging tidbits regarding FA spending from Atkins:

 

 

 

[Spanky99]

Oh boy...

[Barkerfan23]

Oh man this sounds horrible.