Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[Spanky99]

 

Sad he couldn't stay healthy, classy kid.

[Laika]

 

Good printing, Devon! *gold star*

[BTS]

I don't see where Olerud or anyone has suggested penciling Tellez in as every day DH

 

Well I haven’t seen anyone suggest that they want Tellez off the 40-man while he still has an option year remaining, so I assumed he was suggesting he should be penciled in for an MLB job.

[Brownie19]

Interesting projections for the Jays

 

Vlad 127 wRC+, 3.4 WAR

Bo 106 wRC+, 3.2 WAR

Biggio 103 wRC+, 2.2 WAR

Jansen 99 wRC+, 2.0 WAR

Grichuk 104 wRC+, 1.6 WAR

Gurriel 102 wRC+, 1.5 WAR

McGuire 81 wRC+, 1.5 WAR

Tellez 104 wRC+, 1.2 WAR

Drury 86 wRC+, 0.6 WAR

Fisher 92 wRC+, 0.6 WAR

Teo 92 wRC+, 0.2 WAR

McKinney 95 wRC+, 0.2 WAR

 

Offensively, that would be pretty disappointing from Bo, Biggio, Gurriel (and even Fisher). That would be very solid by Vladdy.

 

Streamers also projects essentially every pitcher on our staff not named Giles to have an ERA over 5.

[polar bear]

He's a F.A., hasn't "gone" anywhere yet.

So he’s still hypothetically a Blue Jay ?

Just wondering about the comment made earlier about Pompey being the only player

remaining from our last playoff side.

[Jimcanuck]

Streamers also projects essentially every pitcher on our staff not named Giles to have an ERA over 5.

 

Average ERA across MLB in 2019 was 4.41 or something. So this is not too surprising.

[Orgfiller]

Interesting projections for the Jays

 

Vlad 127 wRC+, 3.4 WAR

Bo 106 wRC+, 3.2 WAR

Biggio 103 wRC+, 2.2 WAR

Jansen 99 wRC+, 2.0 WAR

Grichuk 104 wRC+, 1.6 WAR

Gurriel 102 wRC+, 1.5 WAR

McGuire 81 wRC+, 1.5 WAR

Tellez 104 wRC+, 1.2 WAR

Drury 86 wRC+, 0.6 WAR

Fisher 92 wRC+, 0.6 WAR

Teo 92 wRC+, 0.2 WAR

McKinney 95 wRC+, 0.2 WAR

 

Offensively, that would be pretty disappointing from Bo, Biggio, Gurriel (and even Fisher). That would be very solid by Vladdy.

 

Streamers also projects essentially every pitcher on our staff not named Giles to have an ERA over 5.

 

I'm sure this will be fixed in the future, but it's odd that they think McGuire will have more playing time than Jansen, despite Jansen projected to be the better player lol. Regardless, that catching tandem would be one of the best in the league. The offensive projections on the whole are odd, I would definitely take the over on Biggio and Teoscar - the latter who projects for a wRC+ of 92 despite not dipping below 100 for 3 straight years and being in his prime. I think they're right to be skeptical of Gurriel though I do think he can outperform his projections, along with Bo. Don't really get where they're getting this Tellez love from, or for that matter Drury either.

[Orgfiller]

So he’s still hypothetically a Blue Jay ?

Just wondering about the comment made earlier about Pompey being the only player

remaining from our last playoff side.

 

No lol. A free agent doesn't have a team, Smoak is currently a Blue Jay as much as he is a New York Yankee. Pompey, if he's still on our 40-man roster, would I suppose be the last player that we had on that 2015 currently under the organization.

[Bobthe4th]

No lol. A free agent doesn't have a team, Smoak is currently a Blue Jay as much as he is a New York Yankee. Pompey, if he's still on our 40-man roster, would I suppose be the last player that we had on that 2015 currently under the organization.

 

Not only was Pompey DFA off the 40 man months ago, he’s now a minor league free agent according to Baseball America:

 

Toronto Blue Jays

RHP: Josh Almonte (AA), John Axford (AAA), Danny Barnes (AAA), Mark Leiter Jr. (AAA), Willy Ortiz (AA), Francisco Rios (AAA)

LHP: Matt Dermody (AAA), Shawn Morimando (AAA)

C: Patrick Cantwell (AAA), Michael de la Cruz (AAA), Javier Hernandez (HiA), Alberto Mineo (AA), Andres Sotillo (AA)

2B: Deiferson Barreto (HiA)

OF: Socrates Brito (AAA), Patrick Kivlehan (AAA), Jordan Patterson (AAA), Dalton Pompey (AAA)

[Grant77]

I'm sure this will be fixed in the future, but it's odd that they think McGuire will have more playing time than Jansen, despite Jansen projected to be the better player lol. Regardless, that catching tandem would be one of the best in the league. The offensive projections on the whole are odd, I would definitely take the over on Biggio and Teoscar - the latter who projects for a wRC+ of 92 despite not dipping below 100 for 3 straight years and being in his prime. I think they're right to be skeptical of Gurriel though I do think he can outperform his projections, along with Bo. Don't really get where they're getting this Tellez love from, or for that matter Drury either.

 

Being the left handed side of a potential platoon may explain why they have McGuire playing more.

[TheHurl]

Not only was Pompey DFA off the 40 man months ago, he’s now a minor league free agent according to Baseball America:

 

Toronto Blue Jays

RHP: Josh Almonte (AA), John Axford (AAA), Danny Barnes (AAA), Mark Leiter Jr. (AAA), Willy Ortiz (AA), Francisco Rios (AAA)

LHP: Matt Dermody (AAA), Shawn Morimando (AAA)

C: Patrick Cantwell (AAA), Michael de la Cruz (AAA), Javier Hernandez (HiA), Alberto Mineo (AA), Andres Sotillo (AA)

2B: Deiferson Barreto (HiA)

OF: Socrates Brito (AAA), Patrick Kivlehan (AAA), Jordan Patterson (AAA), Dalton Pompey (AAA)

 

MLB RULE 55: An unsigned minor league player is automatically declared a free-agent at 5 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series (the deadline is October 15th if the World Series is canceled) if the player has spent all or any part of at least seven separate seasons on a minor league roster (including all or parts of any season spent on Optional Assignment to the minors and/or on a minor league Injured List) and/or if the player has been previously released or non-tendered in his career and his present contract (known as a "second contract" even if it's his third or fourth minor league contract) has expired. For purposes of determining eligibility to be a minor league free-agent where spending seven separate seasons on a minor league roster is required, a player does not accrue a minor league season if the player spends the entire season on an MLB Active List, MLB Disabled List(s), and/or other MLB inactive list, or if the player spends an entire season on the Restricted List, Disqualified List, Suspended List, Ineligible List, Voluntarily Retired List, and/or Military List. Also, participation in a post-season instructional league or winter league and/or the Arizona Fall League (AFL) does not count toward a minor league season if the player otherwise did not accrue a minor league season that year. Note that a player who ordinarily would have been declared a Rule 55 minor league free-agent is NOT eligible to be a free-agent if the player is either added to an MLB Reserve List (40-man roster) or agrees to a minor league successor contract prior to 5 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series.

[Spanky99]

Mark Shapiro interview on Vladito's off-season regiment, being aggressive in this FA pitching market, CBA, etc...

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/lead-off/mark-shapiro-free-agency-dollars-not-issue-alignment-fit-will-challenge/

 

The Blue Jays are known to be looking for pitching this winter, with Shapiro saying “we’re going to have to be aggressive on every level of the free agent starting pitcher landscape.” This could mean at least checking into the top-tier names on the pitching market, though given Shapiro also noted that “if you look at the history of free agent pitching contracts, it is a really, really, really high-risk area to play in.” All things considered, the odds seem to be against Toronto landing an elite arm like Gerrit Cole at this point in their rebuilding process. “Dollars are not going to be our challenge, which hasn’t always been the case,” Shapiro said. “It’s going to be where we fit with Gerrit’s alignment of interests…same thing with every free agent we pursue. What I am confident is, that throughout the free agency process we’ll be able to get better this winter, and we’ll have the resources to do it.”

There have been rumors about a possible extension between Shapiro and the Blue Jays since 2020 is the last year of the CEO’s deal, though he didn’t give any new details on that front. Shapiro did reiterate his desire to stay in Toronto and “I’ve received nothing but positive feedback from the people that I report to about wanting me to remain here.”

[Terminator]

Mark Shapiro interview on Vladito's off-season regiment, being aggressive in this FA pitching market, CBA, etc...

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/lead-off/mark-shapiro-free-agency-dollars-not-issue-alignment-fit-will-challenge/

 

Those interviewers were f***ing awful. Shapiro offered up a decent nugget on the offseason anyway. His comments were promising but we'll see if they actually spend much.

[Spanky99]

Those interviewers were f***ing awful. Shapiro offered up a decent nugget on the offseason anyway. His comments were promising but we'll see if they actually spend much.

 

Yeah, lol... look at the names(Scott MacArthur is the only baseball guy, ex TSN Hockey/Baseball guy). He says the money's there, I loved it.

 

I feel an incoming very good SP asset is imminent. I mean he started with Gerrit Cole(whilst being leaded), again I liked the listen.

Edited November 9, 2019 by Spanky99

[Spanky99]

I recommend you folk listen to that clip/interview... just saying.

[Ray]

My bold prediction is that we'll sign Hyun-Jin Ryu. 4 years, $64M.

 

No QO attached so we won't be losing a draft pick. Has the upside of a #1, but also has a safe floor as a mid rotation starter. Won't cost an arm and a leg due to durability concerns and age. MLBTR has him tabbed at 3 years $54M to the Rangers. I think we'd have to go the extra year to get him, but I think he'd be worth it. It's not much more than the contract Alex Cobb got from the O's a couple years ago.

[Terminator]

Yeah, lol... look at the names(Scott MacArthur is the only baseball guy, ex TSN Hockey/Baseball guy). He says the money's there, I loved it.

 

I feel an incoming very good SP asset is imminent. I mean he started with Gerrit Cole(whilst being leaded), again I liked the listen.

 

Yeah half the interview was wasted by asking about the player-owner relationship in light of AA's comments and then the chick was cracking jokes about Cole or asked if position player's are safer to develop than pitchers. Seems like Shapiro wanted to talk about how the Jays would be active this offseason and they wanted to talk about other stuff haha.

[Spanky99]

My bold prediction is that we'll sign Hyun-Jin Ryu. 4 years, $64M.

 

No QO attached so we won't be losing a draft pick. Has the upside of a #1, but also has a safe floor as a mid rotation starter. Won't cost an arm and a leg due to durability concerns and age. MLBTR has him tabbed at 3 years $54M to the Rangers. I think we'd have to go the extra year to get him, but I think he'd be worth it. It's not much more than the contract Alex Cobb got from the O's a couple years ago.

 

Wheeler or him would be ballsy but awesome.

[glory]

Yeah, lol... look at the names(Scott MacArthur is the only baseball guy, ex TSN Hockey/Baseball guy). He says the money's there, I loved it.

 

I feel an incoming very good SP asset is imminent. I mean he started with Gerrit Cole(whilst being leaded), again I liked the listen.

 

Yeah, I feel like paying Chase Anderson 1/9 (or 2/18 if option is picked up) before the off season even started is a sign that they'll spend a ton this winter. Well, a "ton" by Jays and today's MLB standards. You don't make that type of move this early if you're going to be frugal.

[Jimcanuck]

My bold prediction is that we'll sign Hyun-Jin Ryu. 4 years, $64M.

 

No QO attached so we won't be losing a draft pick. Has the upside of a #1, but also has a safe floor as a mid rotation starter. Won't cost an arm and a leg due to durability concerns and age. MLBTR has him tabbed at 3 years $54M to the Rangers. I think we'd have to go the extra year to get him, but I think he'd be worth it. It's not much more than the contract Alex Cobb got from the O's a couple years ago.

 

Wheeler and Wacha

 

Wheeler for 5 yrs and Wacha for a couple guaranteed at relatively low AAV plus a couple of club options would work with the Jays win progression.

 

4 yrs for Ryu at 34 with his injury history is extra risky

[Barkerfan23]

Wheeler and Wacha

 

Wheeler for 5 yrs and Wacha for a couple guaranteed at relatively low AAV plus a couple of club options would work with the Jays win progression.

 

4 yrs for Ryu at 34 with his injury history is extra risky

 

Ryu is staying in LA

[saskjayfan]

Wheeler or him would be ballsy but awesome.

 

That should be the floor of where our risk appetite lies. We need to hire guys with more balls if they can't go out and commit 4 years 64 mil for Ryu or similar dollars for Wheeler.

[glory]

I don't think a team that just spent an entire season tanking on purpose is going to want to lose a (high) 2nd round pick and $500k from their international draft pool. If it's for Cole, then sure, but I don't think they do that for anyone else. Ryu makes a lot of sense. Ceiling/performance of a top of the rotation starter, risky due to age/injury so years will be limited, and won't cost a pick/intl money.

[Bobthe4th]

I don't think a team that just spent an entire season tanking on purpose is going to want to lose a (high) 2nd round pick and $500k from their international draft pool. If it's for Cole, then sure, but I don't think they do that for anyone else. Ryu makes a lot of sense. Ceiling/performance of a top of the rotation starter, risky due to age/injury so years will be limited, and won't cost a pick/intl money.

 

I see what you're saying but I'd argue it doesn't make that much sense. To get a decent pitcher to sign here we're going to have to pay more than anyone else i.e. a premium on top of the normal free agent premium. So why do that for a very risky player? I guess you could argue it doesn't matter if he fails as we've got tonnes of payroll space, I just think an argument can be made that it's an unnecessary risk.

[glory]

I see what you're saying but I'd argue it doesn't make that much sense. To get a decent pitcher to sign here we're going to have to pay more than anyone else i.e. a premium on top of the normal free agent premium. So why do that for a very risky player? I guess you could argue it doesn't matter if he fails as we've got tonnes of payroll space, I just think an argument can be made that it's an unnecessary risk.

 

It depends on what the premium is. I don't think I'd go four years given his age + health history, but a high AAV on a 3 year deal would be perfectly reasonable, IMO. Or a vesting option for the 4th year based on health/innings. The other alternative would be to sign multiple middle tier starters who are a solid bet for a 2+ war (Keuchel, Gibson, Porcello types). You get more stability that way and less risk, but less upside/talent as well.

 

Wheeler would be good too in isolation, but I just see the QO as something Shatkins would not want to mess around with. We are talking about overpaying a free agent, losing a high 2nd round pick (+ the draft pool that comes with it), and $500k in intl money. If the Jays don't feel they are one player away, and are coming off a season where they intentionally tanked, then giving all that up for a rotation upgrade makes little sense. The only exception would be if they signed Cole, which seems highly unlikely.

Edited November 9, 2019 by glory

[Bobthe4th]

It depends on what the premium is. I don't think I'd go four years given his age + health history, but a high AAV on a 3 year deal would be perfectly reasonable, IMO. Or a vesting option for the 4th year based on health/innings. The other alternative would be to sign multiple middle tier starters who are a solid bet for a 2+ war (Keuchel, Gibson, Porcello types). You get more stability that way and less risk, but less upside/talent as well.

 

Wheeler would be good too in isolation, but I just see the QO as something Shatkins would not want to mess around with. We are talking about overpaying a free agent, losing a high 2nd round pick (+ the draft pool that comes with it), and $500k in intl money. If the Jays don't feel they are one player away, and are coming off a season where they intentionally tanked, then giving all that up for a rotation upgrade makes little sense. The only exception would be if they signed Cole, which seems highly unlikely.

 

Yeah there's no chance we sign a QO player. I also think Ryu should get multiple 3 year offers so we prob would have to offer that 4th year.

 

Short term deals, or sure things (or as close to that as is possible) in free agency would be my preference while we are still a relatively bad team, with a very promising developing core. IMO I'd rather make risker moves (overpaying to get an ace for example) when the pay off = a potential World Series or two.

 

Where I'm fully behind taking on salary right now is in the trade market to take advantage of teams looking to shed payroll.

[Brownie19]

Teams are exactly scared off by the QO compensation as much as they used to be - but our willingness to sacrifice a 2nd round pick might be our competitive advantage over other teams.

[Boxcar]

Lol @ the idea that Toronto is the most undesirable place to play in the entire league to the point where they have to give extra years and like 5 million extra AAV just to get guys to consider it.

 

Holy f*** it blows me away how little Bob knows about baseball, yet asserts his opinion anyway.

[Dick_Pole]

The loser mentality in this thread is getting high. JP Ricciardi did a number on the psyche of Jays fans to justify his mediocre tenure (and then went on to sign AJ Burnett). If the Jays fail to sign two pitchers better than anyone currently on the roster it is a failing of the front office, nothing more.

[Laika]

People talk about sacrificing the 2nd round pick to sign a QO player as if it should or will be a categorical reason to avoid certain free agents. That's really not how teams think. I get that sometimes teams mention retaining draft picks as a reason for not pursuing QO free agents, but that's mostly politics for the fans - giving them a legitimate reason that is not the complete truth, which is that the organization did not want to spend money.

 

Really, what orgs likely do is place a dollar value on their draft picks and factor that into the calculation of the deal for the free agent. If the second round pick in the 40s is worth $15M in surplus value you just tack that on top of whatever monetary offer you are making - that's how much more the player costs. Every team loses picks for signing a QO player but the pick values vary so that's where the bargaining power differences come into play.