Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[Laika]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

 

The team needs to sign multiple players on this list, and I would be happy with nearly every player at their crowdsourced contract except for like, the handful of C and 2B/SS on the list who aren't needed.

 

Homer Bailey for $6M? sure!

Jordan Lyles for 2/$12M? i guess so!

The Toddfather for $7.5M? better than nothing!

 

2/30M for Hamels? 1/12 for Pomeranz? 3/39 for Puig? sure, sure, okay.

 

I guess the possible exceptions for me are the bigger deals for the older dudes. Not sure that Bumgarner, Donaldson, or JDM make sense for Toronto at those dollar values / terms.

[glory]

Surprised they traded for Anderson before the FA market began.

[Bobthe4th]

Surprised they traded for Anderson before the FA market began. Either they are going cheap again or really like Anderson.

 

Not even that cheap he’ll be one of the highest paid players now:

 

[Laika]

fWAR might fool you on Anderson. 7.5 career, but his ERA is 3.94 and his FIP (fWAR) is 4.54.

 

or maybe that's just random and he's not a FIP beater.

 

Either way, a good acquisition and it's like that made a lower-level FA signing to help the rotation out.

[glory]

Not even that cheap he’ll be one of the highest paid players now:

 

 

Hmmm I thought he was arb eligible. That's more than I would have spent on Anderson, at least until I knew what the SP market was going to be like. Hopefully they didn't give up much.

[Bobthe4th]

Prospect wise Anderson has only cost us Chad Spanberger, who is nothing, so this helps set the (expected) tone for this offseason. Low key, low risk moves. Pretty boring!

 

[z3r0s]

Prospect wise Anderson has only cost us Chad Spanberger, who is nothing, so this helps set the (expected) tone for this offseason. Low key, low risk moves. Pretty boring!

 

 

I don't think this necessarily sets the tone for anything just yet. Might end up being what we see, but one low risk move doesn't mean that will be the overall theme.

[Bobthe4th]

I don't think this necessarily sets the tone for anything just yet. Might end up being what we see, but one low risk move doesn't mean that will be the overall theme.

 

Yeah I'm sure we'll be signing Cole, Strasburg and Rendon any time now haha.

[Spanky99]

Yeah I'm sure we'll be signing Cole, Strasburg and Rendon any time now haha.

 

Yeah, and that's what he said, right?

[Orgfiller]

Yeah I'm sure we'll be signing Cole, Strasburg and Rendon any time now haha.

 

Don't be so obtuse Bob, Jesus.

[Orgfiller]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

 

FG FA projections are up. Contracts that look good to me, outside of Cole/Rendon/Strasburg:

 

Bats

Ozuna (4/64 crowdsourced)

Gardner (1/8)

Edwin (1/14)

Abreu (2/30)

 

SP

Wheeler (4/72)

Keuchel (4/70)

Ryu (3/48)

Gibson (2/20)

Odorizzi (3/45)

Roark (2/20)

 

RP

Smith (3/30)

Betances (2/18)

Martin (2/9)

 

Ryu is always going to be a ticking time bomb but I'd take him at 3/48 in a heartbeat even if he only gives us 300 innings out of it. Odorizzi looks pretty good too, Gardner would be a steal at $8M, and I'd probably take 1 year of Edwin over 2/30 from Abreu. Chris Martin on 2/9 could be very good as well, worst case you went a bit too high on a mediocre reliever.

[THANOS]

I'd sign Wheeler, Gibson and Odorizzi at those prices.

 

As would I.

[TheHurl]

Ryu obviously gets (correctly) penalized for lack of durability, but that seems like a hell of a deal.

 

And his career numbers away from Dodgers Stadium are good but not great. K/BB drops from 5.0 to 3.32. FIP goes from 3.09 to 3.56 and xFIP is 3.79 on the road and 3.07 at home. His road numbers still make him good at that price.

[Orgfiller]

And his career numbers away from Dodgers Stadium are good but not great. K/BB drops from 5.0 to 3.32. FIP goes from 3.09 to 3.56 and xFIP is 3.79 on the road and 3.07 at home. His road numbers still make him good at that price.

 

Actual question, would it not be the case for most players to do worse on the road than at home? I don't know how much that difference would be, perhaps Ryu's is more significant than the average player, but there's a reason why the home team wins something like 55% of the time, so obviously players perform worse on the road/better at home whichever way you want to look at it.

[glory]

Odorizzi at 3/45 (assuming no QO) and Gibson at 2/20 would be a no brainers. I suspect Odorizzi would get more than that.

[Bobthe4th]

Travis’ career close to being over?

 

[Abomination]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

 

FG FA projections are up. Contracts that look good to me, outside of Cole/Rendon/Strasburg:

 

Bats

Ozuna (4/64 crowdsourced)

Gardner (1/8)

Edwin (1/14)

Abreu (2/30)

 

SP

Wheeler (4/72)

Keuchel (4/70)

Ryu (3/48)

Gibson (2/20)

Odorizzi (3/45)

Roark (2/20)

 

RP

Smith (3/30)

Betances (2/18)

Martin (2/9)

 

Pretty much all of those projections look laughably low to me. Smith and Roark might be accurate.

[Terminator]

Based on Fangraphs' crowd sourcing numbers I think Anderson's contract looks on par with similar talent. Maybe a little better.

[RobinThicc]

Sign Cole this winter

 

Sign Betts next winter

[TheHurl]

Actual question, would it not be the case for most players to do worse on the road than at home? I don't know how much that difference would be, perhaps Ryu's is more significant than the average player, but there's a reason why the home team wins something like 55% of the time, so obviously players perform worse on the road/better at home whichever way you want to look at it.

 

Usually not that big of a difference FIP though. I'll run some data later tonight.

[saskjayfan]

Odorizzi at 3/45 (assuming no QO) and Gibson at 2/20 would be a no brainers. I suspect Odorizzi would get more than that.

 

he got a qualifying offer.

[Brownie19]

he got a qualifying offer.

 

So what? The compensation isn't a 1st rounder anymore.

[Krylian]

Tepera and Travis dropped from the 40 man

[saskjayfan]

So what? The compensation isn't a 1st rounder anymore.

 

well it doesn't bother me...but I suspect our not so fearless leader you're in love with doesn't want to give a 2nd round pick or bonus pool money up so we're out. If we sign someone who got a qualifying offer I will be shocked.

 

besides, if you actually read the thread I was just clarifying he got a qualifying offer.

[BTS]

Tepera and Travis dropped from the 40 man

 

Good.

[saskjayfan]

Good.

 

seems obvious more than anything. Travis had the ability to be a decent player...I feel bad for the kid. He just couldn't stay healthy.

[BTS]

seems obvious more than anything. Travis had the ability to be a decent player...I feel bad for the kid. He just couldn't stay healthy.

 

I thought Tepera might be tendered and didn’t want him to be.

[Terminator]

I thought Tepera might be tendered and didn’t want him to be.

 

Yeah I think he and Bass project to make the same through Arb and I'd much rather have Bass. Coming off a better year, healthier and projects better. Another solid but boring move.

[glory]

Yeah I’m glad Tepera was dropped. Doesn’t save much $ but an extra 40 man roster spot is more valuable. Jays need to take advantage of how inexpensive free agency is now. Cleaning up the 40 man roster junk is imperative.

[RobinThicc]

Give wheeler 4/84, heavily front load it.

 

Then sign someone like roark and call it a day