Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[bones10]

He would probably be cheap if you gave him a multi year deal right? Sign him for three with a fourth year team option and lets see him hit the 500 home run milestone in a Jays jersey.

 

Dude hasn't hit less than 30 since 2011, and lowest wrc+ in the same time frame was 115, and that wasn't even this year.

[Spanky99]

Just sign Smoaky back on the cheap, he and his family love Toronto.

[Spanky99]

He would probably be cheap if you gave him a multi year deal right? Sign him for three with a fourth year team option and lets see him hit the 500 home run milestone in a Jays jersey.

 

Dude hasn't hit less than 30 since 2011, and lowest wrc+ in the same time frame was 115, and that wasn't even this year.

 

Nah, no multi year deals at guys his age, year to year for EE. I wouldn't mind seeing this again though...

 

http://i.imgur.com/uZfX9LX.gif

[glory]

Looking at the FA list, cheap players who would fit the DH/1B/OF mold short term:

 

Corey Dickerson (31)

Eric Thames (33) — $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Brad Miller (30)

Justin Smoak (33)

 

Didn't realize Miller turned into a statcast darling this season. He'd be a pretty decent signing if he can maintain it. Dickerson is another one who looks interesting and may not get a lot of attention. Smoak would be the easy one to bring back. Likes it here and might still be a productive hitter.

[Spanky99]

Man, I salivate at the thought of picking up a couple SP's from this FA class.

[Dick_Pole]

A 91 wRC+ in his first full season (just 73 AB in 2018) is not too bad at all. I point to his ~18% K rate in MiLB and his 28% K rate so far in MLB and suggest there is certainly the potential for him to go north of a 100 wRC+ in 2020.

 

(It would not surprise me to see 37 yr old EE with a wRC+ south of 100 in 2020)

 

Jim...I am sure there are some comments from you somewhere talking about how useless Morales was. Tellez is a worse and fatter version of Morales in everything to do with baseball. A below average hitter who needs like a .900 OPS before he becomes useful.

[Dick_Pole]

(Jays make strong offer to all three)

 

"Thank you very much for the interest in our clients and your generous offers"

 

(Players and agents use these offers as leverage to get a better deal where they really want to go).

 

Rinse. Repeat.

 

Ugh. There are 29 teams that will fail to get each of these players' services this year. There are also about 15-20 free agents who can add 3 or more WAR to the Jays roster just by replacing a scrub. Open a dialog with every one of them and chances increase that you'll sign one or two.

 

1/30 = 3.333333% chance a free agent will be signed.

Talk to 15 and it's a 1-((1-1/30)^15) = 40% chance that a free agent is signed.

 

You should just become an Orioles fan. I bet you loved how much time and paperwork that FO saved by not even trying to lure in Ohtani.

[5ToolPhenom]

It would be a cool story to have Thames back and lord knows we could use some left handed pop. He would actually be a smart signing as I don't think the price would be too large..

[Spanky99]

It would be a cool story to have Thames back and lord knows we could use some left handed pop. He would actually be a smart signing as I don't think the price would be too large..

 

His option will be picked up, no need to love it.

[Jimcanuck]

Jim...I am sure there are some comments from you somewhere talking about how useless Morales was. Tellez is a worse and fatter version of Morales in everything to do with baseball. A below average hitter who needs like a .900 OPS before he becomes useful.

 

I'm aware, just comparing Tellez and EE (who isn't the fastest player either) to suggest that paying EE $15M (?) provides limited dividend, extending the argument that signing EE to a team coming off a 95 loss season doesn't make sense.

 

Would be a better investment, perhaps, to use that $15M to help pay for a front loaded contract for one of the higher end pitchers available.

[Spanky99]

I'm aware, just comparing Tellez and EE (who isn't the fastest player either) to suggest that paying EE $15M (?) provides limited dividend, extending the argument that signing EE to a team coming off a 95 loss season doesn't make sense.

 

Would be a better investment, perhaps, to use that $15M to help pay for a front loaded contract for one of the higher end pitchers available.

 

Why not both... EE would be 1 year.

[Jimcanuck]

Why not both... EE would be 1 year.

 

Front loading another $15M to a guy like Cole would set the Jays up nicely for the later years when they are peaking the win curve.

 

What do you think the chances are, Strasburg choosing FA over the 4 years, $100M remaining?

[Spanky99]

Front loading another $15M to a guy like Cole would set the Jays up nicely for the later years when they are peaking the win curve.

 

What do you think the chances are, Strasburg choosing FA over the 4 years, $100M remaining?

 

He's easily taking a look at FA. The Jays have a lot of money to spend.

[Krylian]

Ensuring that competitors actually have to pay market rates for talent is itself a good reason to bid.

 

Or we can just say that only losers try, and continue to watch teams like New York and Houston kidnap talent like Brantley, DJL, etc.

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't try. My point is that this organization isn't at the point where high end guys actually would consider actually signing here yet...and it is frustrating.

[Krylian]

Ugh. There are 29 teams that will fail to get each of these players' services this year. There are also about 15-20 free agents who can add 3 or more WAR to the Jays roster just by replacing a scrub. Open a dialog with every one of them and chances increase that you'll sign one or two.

 

1/30 = 3.333333% chance a free agent will be signed.

Talk to 15 and it's a 1-((1-1/30)^15) = 40% chance that a free agent is signed.

 

You should just become an Orioles fan. I bet you loved how much time and paperwork that FO saved by not even trying to lure in Ohtani.

 

Are you saying the Yankees and the Royals both have a 3.333% chance of signing Garrett Cole? Please tell me that isn't the math you're using. we all know there are about 10 teams or so that so the vast majority of the FA signings. Right now, that ain't the Jays. Be it Rogers' risk averse mentality, the fact that we're in Canada, or the fact that the Jays are a bottom dweller right now, these are all factors...big factors. Going after Cole would be great, but unless it's a ridiculous offer, it's just going to be leverage for his camp at this point. That may change in the future...but not today.

[Dick_Pole]

I'm aware, just comparing Tellez and EE (who isn't the fastest player either) to suggest that paying EE $15M (?) provides limited dividend, extending the argument that signing EE to a team coming off a 95 loss season doesn't make sense.

 

Would be a better investment, perhaps, to use that $15M to help pay for a front loaded contract for one of the higher end pitchers available.

 

I actually completely agree. But you managed to get yourself into an argument where none is needed by somehow framing this as an Encarnacion versus Tellez debate. The issue isn't either/or. Any number of scenarios could take place including re-signing Smoak, putting Vlad at first with focus on 3B signing and having a rotating DH that helps to ensure Tellez doesn't get any more extended looks. The EE scenario is merely one that can be presented as a realistic, low-hanging fruit opportunity to improve the team should Krylian's wet dream of the Jays striking out on absolutely every free agent possible happen and the team has like $60 million committed two weeks before Spring Training starts.

[Krylian]

I actually completely agree. But you managed to get yourself into an argument where none is needed by somehow framing this as an Encarnacion versus Tellez debate. The issue isn't either/or. Any number of scenarios could take place including re-signing Smoak, putting Vlad at first with focus on 3B signing and having a rotating DH that helps to ensure Tellez doesn't get any more extended looks. The EE scenario is merely one that can be presented as a realistic, low-hanging fruit opportunity to improve the team should Krylian's wet dream of the Jays striking out on absolutely every free agent possible happen and the team has like $60 million committed two weeks before Spring Training starts.

 

You may have abandoned reality... Doesn't mean the rest of us should.

[Jimcanuck]

I actually completely agree. But you managed to get yourself into an argument where none is needed by somehow framing this as an Encarnacion versus Tellez debate. The issue isn't either/or. Any number of scenarios could take place including re-signing Smoak, putting Vlad at first with focus on 3B signing and having a rotating DH that helps to ensure Tellez doesn't get any more extended looks. The EE scenario is merely one that can be presented as a realistic, low-hanging fruit opportunity to improve the team should Krylian's wet dream of the Jays striking out on absolutely every free agent possible happen and the team has like $60 million committed two weeks before Spring Training starts.

 

if you read my posts, it was never a Tellez vs EE debate. it was questioning the benefit of signing EE coming off a 95 loss season, with EE providing limited upgrade on in house options (of which Tellez was only an example used) and other players avail by FA.

[Jimcanuck]

If the Jays were higher up on the win curve I would totally agree with signing EE. He's exactly the kind of player an emerging contender signs to fill a hole / strengthen the bench.

 

At this point, coming off a 95 loss season, it makes more sense for the Jays to give those at bats to guys like Tellez and other young guys fighting to develop / establish themselves, or a younger FA like Ozuna or Castellanos signed to a multi year deal.

 

My first post on the matter. It was in response to Laika who was the one that brought up EE / Tellez in the first place.

[Carlos Danger]

Two words- Positional Flexibility.. First thing out of Atkin's mouth when asked if they want to resign Smoke. Atkin's has said it 10 times this off season when discussing position player acquisitions. Five pages of debating EE and seems like not one person has listened to what the guy who is the actual GM of the team has stated repeatedly..

[Cbert]

I think I’m with most that this is the off-season to open the wallet, even if legit contention is still two more seasons away. I’d love to see the Jays target Cole and Rendon (move Vladdy to first) and use some trade chips for an outfielder. It’s wishful thinking, but hey, what else can we at this point?

 

One thing I’ve noticed people mention here is front loading contracts. I can see it as a benefit for the player but what does it really do for a team like the Jays later on in terms of financial flexibility? Aren’t contracts weighted equally each year of a contract for the luxury tax?

[Jimcanuck]

I think I’m with most that this is the off-season to open the wallet, even if legit contention is still two more seasons away. I’d love to see the Jays target Cole and Rendon (move Vladdy to first) and use some trade chips for an outfielder. It’s wishful thinking, but hey, what else can we at this point?

 

One thing I’ve noticed people mention here is front loading contracts. I can see it as a benefit for the player but what does it really do for a team like the Jays later on in terms of financial flexibility? Aren’t contracts weighted equally each year of a contract for the luxury tax?

 

Doubtful the Jays sniff the luxury tax threshold anytime soon, or ever. The benefit is having Gerritt Cole and Rendon on the team at $15M per instead of $25-30M per when Vladdy and Bo are approaching free agency would allow the Jays to sign them long term without breaking the bank.

[bones10]

Smoak isn't very good though, lol.

[Jimcanuck]

Smoak isn't very good though, lol.

 

.223 BABIP in 2019, after two years with a ~.290 BABIP. A good bounce back candidate.

 

Didn't watch enough games to tell if he's just pulling the ball more and getting killed by a shift, or a lot of bad luck.

[Olerud363]

I actually completely agree. But you managed to get yourself into an argument where none is needed by somehow framing this as an Encarnacion versus Tellez debate. The issue isn't either/or. Any number of scenarios could take place including re-signing Smoak, putting Vlad at first with focus on 3B signing and having a rotating DH that helps to ensure Tellez doesn't get any more extended looks. The EE scenario is merely one that can be presented as a realistic, low-hanging fruit opportunity to improve the team should Krylian's wet dream of the Jays striking out on absolutely every free agent possible happen and the team has like $60 million committed two weeks before Spring Training starts.

 

So do you think that Tellez is obviously a level down from EE in 2010, or Bautista in 2008/2009??

 

I'm just curious what is the benefit of discarding Tellez, who is projected for a win or so, and replacing him with guys on the other side of their career, projected for 2 wins??

 

Do you have a system for discarding youngish players?? Part of rebuilding is discovering surprises... Do you have a surprise discovery system?? Or do you think that you just have to give up on ever finding the next EE, Smoak or Bautista, just to avoid the risk of playing a replacement level player in a rebuilding season.

 

I am just curious... what is your methodology to separate Smoak 2016, from Tellez 2019??

[Carlos Danger]

Smoak isn't very good though, lol.

 

Atkin's emphasis wasn't on Smoak as much as it was they want total roster flexibility.. They don't want one dimensional players.. I agree with them 100% at this point. They already have Tellez who fits that mold and potentially Vlad in near future.

[Laika]

Atkin's emphasis wasn't on Smoak as much as it was they want total roster flexibility.. They don't want one dimensional players.. I agree with them 100% at this point. They already have Tellez who fits that mold and potentially Vlad in near future.

 

As far as roster construction goes the importance of positional versatility decreases as the quality of the bat increases.

 

Smoak projects to be about 10% better than a league average hitter - you could reasonably do as good as that by platooning versatile players through a 1B/DH position.

 

Edwin projects to be about 27% better than a league average hitter - it still might make sense to go with more versatile bats, depending on how well they can hit, but it's likely that prioritizing positional versatility over someone that good at hitting would mean sacrificing offense.

 

Thinking about signing those two players is not a congruent decision making process

[Cbert]

Doubtful the Jays sniff the luxury tax threshold anytime soon, or ever. The benefit is having Gerritt Cole and Rendon on the team at $15M per instead of $25-30M per when Vladdy and Bo are approaching free agency would allow the Jays to sign them long term without breaking the bank.

 

Oh yeah, I don’t doubt that. I just meant what would be the point of playing around with the actual payments for players when it’s averaged out anyways for the payroll. Front loading/back loading seems like something teams with financial issues would do, but I would assume the Jays can pay 25mill annually and just raise the payroll year over year as they become competitive again and revenue increases.

[Brownie19]

Oh yeah, I don’t doubt that. I just meant what would be the point of playing around with the actual payments for players when it’s averaged out anyways for the payroll. Front loading/back loading seems like something teams with financial issues would do, but I would assume the Jays can pay 25mill annually and just raise the payroll year over year as they become competitive again and revenue increases.

 

But it isn't averaged out (unless we're talking about luxury tax - which the Jays aren't even close to). It makes complete sense for the Jays to front load some big contracts now while they have a reduced payroll so they can free up payroll space when Vlad, Biggy and Bo need to be paid...

[Cbert]

But it isn't averaged out (unless we're talking about luxury tax - which the Jays aren't even close to). It makes complete sense for the Jays to front load some big contracts now while they have a reduced payroll so they can free up payroll space when Vlad, Biggy and Bo need to be paid...

 

Oh ok. I always thought all payrolls reflected the team’s AAVs of their contracts regardless of payroll size. I guess I’m just thinking it doesn’t matter if the Jays pumped their payroll to 110 mill next year and then higher year over year to extend their young guys. They’re not a franchise that needs to be creative with payroll like the Royals or Rays. If they’re succeeding with some big vets and young guys, the revenues should get better again, too.