Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[glory]

You can tell me it will never happen. But I know that. I keep reading those articles that suggest Shatkins will be fired if they don't win next year. And when GM's are on that bubble sometimes they do stupid crap to save their jobs. They blow up the plan.

 

If Shapiro's contract is not extended he'll find another job in 10 seconds. I don't think he's going to go full AA in 2020 to get an extension. Atkins is less likely to get another high profile job, but he works for Shapiro, so I wouldn't expect any 2013-15 type of reactionary moves. They wouldn't start a rebuild in 2019 and then completely go the other direction less than 12 months later.

 

If Shapiro is not extended by the start of the season, then he's probably gone either way. I don't see why he'd have to prove himself to a bunch of suits who don't know anything about baseball, and if Rogers really wanted him long term they wouldn't let him dangle on the last year of his deal. Maybe they will want to save money on the next team prez. I hope not. Rogers got very lucky getting Shapiro in the first place. I shudder to think who they'd get to replace him. If Shatkins' job depends on the 2020 win/loss record then just replace them now and get it over with.

[TheHurl]

There seems to be talk of the Mets trading Syndergaard in the winter. I don't think the Jays are ready to trade top prospects, but trading with Brody is too appealing not to at least kick the tires on.

 

Betts for Syndergaard seems so perfect to me. Allows Boston to save probably $15M (and get under the luxury tax), without having to start over. The Mets make a big splash again and get a shot to extend Betts

[Olerud363]

You think he'd be available? I immediately scoffed at your idea; although when you look at it - he's only been a 2 WAR player in 2 of the past 3 years. Is 2018 the outlier?

 

btw - when did Fangraphs remove the ability to review the contract breakdown? super annoying.

 

I was thinking Benintendi or Bradley. Can Benintendi play center?? And yeah... Benintendi has a bit of Vladitis... Strangely isn't hitting for power in an era where every other random guy is. His number would be great in 1988 or 2014... but make no sense in 2019.

[Olerud363]

You think he'd be available? I immediately scoffed at your idea; although when you look at it - he's only been a 2 WAR player in 2 of the past 3 years. Is 2018 the outlier?

 

btw - when did Fangraphs remove the ability to review the contract breakdown? super annoying.

 

I think Benentendi's numbers are pretty typical for a 3 WAR guy... it will go up and down a bit. So I don't think 4 is an outlier, but just random variation around 3....

[Brownie19]

I was thinking Benintendi or Bradley. Can Benintendi play center?? And yeah... Benintendi has a bit of Vladitis... Strangely isn't hitting for power in an era where every other random guy is. His number would be great in 1988 or 2014... but make no sense in 2019.

 

No interest in Jackie Bradley

[Olerud363]

No interest in Jackie Bradley

 

Bradley is more Pillarish then I thought... I had him as a nice lefty bat with good secondary skills and defense... but his average is so low the final line is Pillar like, and the defense is on a Pillar like Trend... It's probably illogical but I see him as a Devon White type... reality I guess is that he's not as fast as White, and there are a lot of guys who remind you Devon White (or Jose Bautista) at 28.

[Terminator]

I don't really see the point of merely doing a little better than this year. In the market to spend $30million on a few borderline number 3 starters isn't really going to move the needle much especially when we blow the games in the 9th anyway without an actual closer.

 

If the goal is to be an out and out playoff caliber team by 2021 (is that the goal???) then I see no reason not to get or at least try to get elite talent. 3 starters, 3 GOOD relievers (retaining Giles).

 

Hypothetically, lets say the Jays

Extended Giles (5 years)

Signed Cole (7 years)

Signed Bumgarner (4 years)

Signed Keuchel (2 years)

Signed Odorizzi (3 years)

Signed Will Harris (RP) (3 years)

Signed Will Smith (RP) (3 years)

Signed Anthony Rendon (8 years) Move Vlad to first base.

 

They can afford to do all of that with money left in the bank.

 

That should at least get you a wild card no? Add up the WAR boys.

 

Lol I love this. Add a half billion in payroll to get to that WC game!

[Brownie19]

Bradley is more Pillarish then I thought... I had him as a nice lefty bat with good secondary skills and defense... but his average is so low the final line is Pillar like, and the defense is on a Pillar like Trend... It's probably illogical but I see him as a Devon White type... reality I guess is that he's not as fast as White, and there are a lot of guys who remind you Devon White (or Jose Bautista) at 28.

 

I could see the Red Sox moving him in a Pillar type deal to clear up more salary. I can't imagine they want to pay him $9-10M next year.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Lol I love this. Add a half billion in payroll to get to that WC game!

 

That's a 97 win team just starting it's window.

 

Lol I love this, too.

[TheHurl]

3 years $96M for Price. Throwing in $30M the Sox will get a piece for him. Maybe even $20M. He still had a 3.62 FIP/3.73 xFIP and got his swinging strike rate back to what it was when he was elite. He has age based injury concern but he's an upgrade for half of the contenders, and 3 years of risk is probably less than free agent market.

[Laika]

3 years $96M for Price. Throwing in $30M the Sox will get a piece for him. Maybe even $20M. He still had a 3.62 FIP/3.73 xFIP and got his swinging strike rate back to what it was when he was elite. He has age based injury concern but he's an upgrade for half of the contenders, and 3 years of risk is probably less than free agent market.

 

Well he also has injury-based injury concern. Lots of little arm/elbow s*** over the last couple of years.

 

2017 - 74 IP - elbow inflammation twice

2018 - 176 IP - I don't remember any injury but he might have missed a bit of time?

2019 - 107 IP - wrist thing late and elbow tendinitis early

[Terminator]

There isn't a chance in hell this team trades for David Price.

 

This FO is extremely risk averse. I think they play it safe and try to conservatively fill about half of our identified holes (a mid tier starting pitcher will be the highlight) this offseason while still giving anyone interesting a lot of playing time. Then they'll add again, and perhaps more aggressively, after the 2020 season. Any talk about the Gerrit Cole's of FA is extremely wishful thinking.

[TheHurl]

Lol I love this. Add a half billion in payroll to get to that WC game!

 

The Rays should do this as well. Could you imagine adding 30 wins to a 90 win team. Plus they could trade all the excess and stock the farm.

 

Rotation of

 

Cole

Bumgarner

Kuechel

Odorizzi

Morton

Snell

Glasnow

Yarborough

 

No need for any relievers. Just every 4th day you set up a 5 and 4 scenario.

[Terminator]

The Rays should do this as well. Could you imagine adding 30 wins to a 90 win team. Plus they could trade all the excess and stock the farm.

 

Rotation of

 

Cole

Bumgarner

Kuechel

Odorizzi

Morton

Snell

Glasnow

Yarborough

 

No need for any relievers. Just every 4th day you set up a 5 and 4 scenario.

 

I like it. You could carry one reliever just in case and then roll with 16 position players. Pinch hit, run and defensive replacements the entire game. Then at the deadline they could trade all those excess prospects for guys like Greinke to further bolster their primary pitchers.

[Jimcanuck]

There isn't a chance in hell this team trades for David Price.

 

This FO is extremely risk averse. I think they play it safe and try to conservatively fill about half of our identified holes (a mid tier starting pitcher will be the highlight) this offseason while still giving anyone interesting a lot of playing time. Then they'll add again, and perhaps more aggressively, after the 2020 season. Any talk about the Gerrit Cole's of FA is extremely wishful thinking.

 

Agreed 100% this is likely. Give the youngsters on the team and prospects on the farm another year to develop, Pearson and a few others make their debuts, determine where the real holes are, and try to add FA to fill them after the 2020 season when the Jays are climbing the win curve. This is the process.

 

But they should make every effort to get a top FA to come to Toronto on a palatable longish deal this offseason.

 

I don't care about the mid-tier FA in their early/mid 30's. Not the right time for these types of guys.

[Jimcanuck]

I like it. You could carry one reliever just in case and then roll with 16 position players. Pinch hit, run and defensive replacements the entire game. Then at the deadline they could trade all those excess prospects for guys like Greinke to further bolster their primary pitchers.

 

I totally get why you guys are picking the Rays to do this innovation.

[TheHurl]

I totally get why you guys are picking the Rays to do this innovation.

 

because their position players can pitch

[Ray]

Corey Dickerson would be interesting OF addition on a budget. I know he has a reputation for being a bad OF, but besides one terrible year, his defense seems fine. Statcast rated him as having elite percentile OF jump (99% in 2019, 98% in 2017) and he's had above average sprint speed every year as well.

 

He's also been striking out less the last 2 seasons. 2016-2017 he averaged ~25% K-rate, but last two seasons it's been between 15%-20%. Doubt he's gonna walk much, but an OF who strikes out on a below average rate would be a welcome addition. Maybe he'd be open to playing some 1B as well.

 

I bet you could get him on a 2-3 year deal as well. I can't see there being much interest in him.

[Ray]

Also interesting:

 

Marcell Ozuna: career .273/.329/.455, 112 wRC+, 3.2 WAR/650 PA

 

Corey Dickerson: career .286/.328/.504, 117 wRC+, 2.9 WAR/650 PA career

 

Ozuna provides better defense, but Dickerson seems like a comparable enough left handed version that will likely be much cheaper.

[Dick_Pole]

There isn't a chance in hell this team trades for David Price.

 

This FO is extremely risk averse. I think they play it safe and try to conservatively fill about half of our identified holes (a mid tier starting pitcher will be the highlight) this offseason while still giving anyone interesting a lot of playing time. Then they'll add again, and perhaps more aggressively, after the 2020 season. Any talk about the Gerrit Cole's of FA is extremely wishful thinking.

 

Agreed 100% this is likely. Give the youngsters on the team and prospects on the farm another year to develop, Pearson and a few others make their debuts, determine where the real holes are, and try to add FA to fill them after the 2020 season when the Jays are climbing the win curve. This is the process.

 

But they should make every effort to get a top FA to come to Toronto on a palatable longish deal this offseason.

 

I don't care about the mid-tier FA in their early/mid 30's. Not the right time for these types of guys.

 

Ugh.

 

NOW is the time to strike when it comes to acquiring a top end pitcher. First, this is a good year for supply on the FA market. Second, the team has payroll flexibility now so that a contract can be front loaded. Not so much when arbitration for the young guys is around the corner. Third, even assuming the best case scenario for Pearson, this team still needs at least one top end pitcher. We don't need to wait a year to figure out that hole. This team has a 0% chance of building a playoff caliber and playoff-winning pitching staff with internal options within the window period for the young position players.

 

If Atkins can't see this and act accordingly, then he is incompetent, not risk averse.

[Terminator]

Ugh.

 

NOW is the time to strike when it comes to acquiring a top end pitcher. First, this is a good year for supply on the FA market. Second, the team has payroll flexibility now so that a contract can be front loaded. Not so much when arbitration for the young guys is around the corner. Third, even assuming the best case scenario for Pearson, this team still needs at least one top end pitcher. We don't need to wait a year to figure out that hole. This team has a 0% chance of building a playoff caliber and playoff-winning pitching staff with internal options within the window period for the young position players.

 

If Atkins can't see this and act accordingly, then he is incompetent, not risk averse.

 

Please don't lump me in with Jim.

 

Also, I'm not saying I agree with it I just think it's what will happen. I'm just basing it off his previous offseasons as well as his recent comments.

[Dick_Pole]

Please don't lump me in with Jim.

 

Also, I'm not saying I agree with it I just think it's what will happen. I'm just basing it off his previous offseasons as well as his recent comments.

 

Hey, YOU are the one who wrote a post in which Jim "100% agreed" with. Take your lumps, they are well deserved.

[Laika]

Terminator, Jim, and Dick Pole seem to all be in agreement then and I’m not sure why anybody needs to fling mud at beloved Jim. Look at his middle paragraph!!

[Terminator]

Terminator, Jim, and Dick Pole seem to all be in agreement then and I’m not sure why anybody needs to fling mud at beloved Jim. Look at his middle paragraph!!

 

You're right, sorry Jim that was rude of me.

[Brownie19]

There isn't a chance in hell this team trades for David Price.

 

This FO is extremely risk averse. I think they play it safe and try to conservatively fill about half of our identified holes (a mid tier starting pitcher will be the highlight) this offseason while still giving anyone interesting a lot of playing time. Then they'll add again, and perhaps more aggressively, after the 2020 season. Any talk about the Gerrit Cole's of FA is extremely wishful thinking.

 

I continue to hate this narrative. This FO was extremely risk averse in Cleveland where they had no money to spend and has been risk adverse in Toronto because our competitive window was closing. Can't we just agree those were smart decisions and may not necessarily represent their ONLY modus operandi?

 

I mean it may very well be - but I'd like to think they are versatile enough to change their approach when the situation presents itself. If they sit on their hands and sign a couple of Jaime Garcia types this offseason - then I'll join you in criticizing them, but these guys are smart dudes and I think they deserve the benefit of the doubt.

[Jimcanuck]

Terminator, Jim, and Dick Pole seem to all be in agreement then and I’m not sure why anybody needs to fling mud at beloved Jim. Look at his middle paragraph!!

 

Those f'ing pricks are clearly biased and need to take an EQ course

[Ray]

If this regime really does believe in this position player core to break out and be better next season, and believe in the upcoming crop of pitchers, doesn't it make MORE sense to spend now on a bigger name than to stand pat and do nothing? Get ahead of the curve and add front loaded contracts while you still have still have the payroll flexibility and Vlad, Bo, Biggio etc. are all in their dirt cheap arbitration years. Who knows, maybe you can make a surprise run next year if you make a major addition.

 

Say we end up around $45M in committed payroll after Giles/Shoemaker arbitration raises. That leaves us $70M to be spent just to get to the opening day payroll threshold that we had THIS season. It makes total sense to go after a Gerrit Cole and frontload the hell out of that contract.

 

2020, age 29: $45M

2021, age 30: $45M (Tulo $18M off the books)

2022, age 31: $45M

2023, age 32: $25M with an opt-out (Vlad/Bo/Cavan arb1)

2024, age 33: $25M with an opt-out (Vlad/Bo/Cavan arb2, Grichuk off the books)

2025, age 34: $25M (Vlad/Bo/Cavan arb3)

2026, age 35: $25M

 

Total value: 7 years $235M. That would be the largest total contract value ever for a pitcher, and I think it's going to be incredibly appealing for Cole to get more than 50% of the contract value within the first 3 years.

 

Paying Cole $45M next season would still leave us $25M to play with which would be enough for the usual array of veteran bullpen arms, a Bucholz/Shoemaker type deal, and maybe even another position player. More importantly, it pushes the message across to the younger players that next year is when we expect you to step up.

 

If Rogers gives the go ahead for a $115M payroll next season, I don't see why they would really care about how it's allocated. Their balance sheet will say the same thing no matter what.

[Dick_Pole]

I think the BJMB crowd can be lumped in two categories:

 

1. The optimists. Those who have faith and a reasonable expectation that the FO can identify the problem areas and come up with solutions to fill those problem areas given the relatively good situation they are in (tons of payroll space, premium positions already filled with young, cheap and productive players, a reasonably strong farm system, a hands-off owner that has allowed for a top-tier payroll in the recent past and a large baseball market). This includes free agency and trades.

 

 

2. The pessimists aka the Krylian crowd. The ones who think that members of management will be so meek, "risk averse" and incompetent at their jobs that there is no chance they will sign any desperately needed pitching so that the team wastes another year of half of the offense earning minimum wage. Oh and Toronto is clearly worse than Kansas City, Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore and Pittsburgh combined. Baseball players would rather hang themselves than dare cross the border and play in front of the third largest city in North America. They might be paid in pesos and might even be forced to learn French. That's much worse than having to worry about their kids being shot at school basically at any time.

[Jimcanuck]

I'm in category 1. Heck months ago I was posting the Jays should pursue top free agents this offseason and was getting pushback from those that are saying that now.

[Dick_Pole]

Those f'ing pricks are clearly biased and need to take an EQ course

 

I responded in a non-insulting manner without personal attacks that I disagreed with your and Terminator's assumption that the right or better time to add more aggressively is after the 2020 season. It's you two guys who started getting all antsy about it. Maybe you need to take an EQ course.