Can Vladdy Stick?

[FrozenRopes]

Veggies aren't a macro. You're saying get 40% from protein and fat, then that means you're getting 60% from carbs. You say stay away from carbs yet recommending a mostly carb diet.

 

It's hilarious seeing people constantly thinking "carbs" are some evil food. Big difference between sweet potatoes and quinoa, and Pop-tarts and donuts.

 

Funny seeing people think potatoes are the same as blueberries.

[Olerud363]

He raises a good question tho

 

Why does Vald keep pounding the ball on the ground

 

I did not see his double nor have I heard Wilner's description. I did hear Wilner claim Vlad just missed one in the third, it sounded like a high fly, but who knows if Wilner's description of these things are accurate.

 

The hit of the game may have been a liner, hit about 100 rows foul that I saw Deadpool describe as "800 mph" off the bat on the game thread. That would of made Cito and Murph proud.

 

He struck out that at bat. Then I fell asleep and awoke to Buck calling another Vlad popup. Didn't see that hit off the bat so I don't know how high it was and whether it was also "just missed".

 

All in all this may be another step forward. When I get a chance I may review the video of the double. Curious if it was a booming drive or a grounder down the line. The 800 mph foul ball won't be in the fangraphs batted ball stats, however the two high popups to the outfield should improve his batting ball profile.

 

Step in the right direction. I also have not heard anything about a demotion. So that is good.

[Deadpool]

I did not see his double nor have I heard Wilner's description. I did hear Wilner claim Vlad just missed one in the third, it sounded like a high fly, but who knows if Wilner's description of these things are accurate.

 

The hit of the game may have been a liner, hit about 100 rows foul that I saw Deadpool describe as "800 mph" off the bat on the game thread. That would of made Cito and Murph proud.

 

He struck out that at bat. Then I fell asleep and awoke to Buck calling another Vlad popup. Didn't see that hit off the bat so I don't know how high it was and whether it was also "just missed".

 

All in all this may be another step forward. When I get a chance I may review the video of the double. Curious if it was a booming drive or a grounder down the line. The 800 mph foul ball won't be in the fangraphs batted ball stats, however the two high popups to the outfield should improve his batting ball profile.

 

Step in the right direction. I also have not heard anything about a demotion. So that is good.

 

I actually checked, the foul ball was 105.6 MPH. Looked faster, IMO, probably because it didn't have as far to travel.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2019%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=2019-05-12&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=665489&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results

[Olerud363]

I actually checked, the foul ball was 105.6 MPH. Looked faster, IMO, probably because it didn't have as far to travel.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2019%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=2019-05-12&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=665489&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results

 

https://www.bluejaysbeat.com/2019/05/09/vlad-jr-will-be-just-fine/?fbclid=IwAR1hFYGvlAN0HlAtF4vhFIuwuI76CQ4Kk2yA6FYcTw-6hPH8RBxQ9sYW6qU

 

Interesting article, looks like they are pitching him out of zone low. Which may explain the ground ball rate.

 

Vlad needs to just chill, and take (edit) 5 walks a week for a while, and get into 3-1 counts more. Easier said then done but minor league stats say Vlad has the talent to do this. When given a series of pitches with which he can only do 3 things...

 

1. K

2. Grounder

3. Walk

 

He has to take 3. And wait for mistakes, and for the Umps to be a bit nicer.

 

Sure, he's walked 6 times. Once every couple of games. But a great hitter, pitched like this, should be walking every game. Not swinging at the low crap that can only be grounded into the dirt.

[TheHurl]

he raises a good question tho

 

why does vald keep pounding the ball on the ground

 

t i m i n g!

[FrozenRopes]

t i m i n g!

 

Better pitching and timing. He will adapt, you can see he is already starting to. I'd like to see him work to the right side of the field, let the ball get a little deeper. Christian Yelich stylings.

[Olerud363]

Better pitching and timing. He will adapt, you can see he is already starting to. I'd like to see him work to the right side of the field, let the ball get a little deeper. Christian Yelich stylings.

 

After last night his ground ball percentage is finally under 60. 59. His hard hit percentage remains high (42). K % is dropping.

 

His overall numbers have now reached Travis Snider 2009 levels. Not quite at a Delgado 1994 level, but way above the Delgado 1995 level he was at.

 

Given consistent playing time (unlike those two who were sent back to the minors) he will have the opportunity to keep striving for excellence.

 

I think even if his ground ball level remained this high (which it probably won't) he could still be effective. Jayson Heyward, who is the poster boy, for a young heralded prospect, with dynamite minor league numbers, who forgot how to hit (his minor league numbers at a young age are as good as anyones) has a fairly low hard hit percentage. So if anyone is wonrried he could become Jayson Heyward (which I was until I looked closer at the numbers) keep in mind he'd have to reduce his hard hit percentage by 15 points to accomplish that.

 

An assortment of fearsome grounders, low line drives, and the occasional high line drive, all hit at 110+ mph would be more effective than what Heyward does.

[Olerud363]

Interesting to follow Vlad's batted ball stats. We want him to end up at apr. 20-40-40 for the two important ratios. LD, GB, FB, and Soft, Medium, Hard. He's about there for SMH. Still grounder heavy

 

Overall Vladdy is about at a Bautista 2018 level in terms of both real production and batted ball...

 

It sucks to have bad luck when you are old or young. If young everybody freaks and you might get sent back and lose 25-50 homers off your career total (like Delgado did).

 

If old you might get retired or no one wants you and the same you lose 25-50 homers.

 

If in the middle no problem. Everybody just let's you play and the luck evens out.

 

Bautista > Pujols

Bautista absolutely fine still. Hitting as good as ever especially in 2018. (he was admittedly off in 2017, but batted ball and walk rate was great in 2018).

 

Poor Bautista. Part of me wishes someone had signed him to an expensive mulit year contract, so he'd get a chance to just keep going like Pujols, just on account someone owes him 50-100 million still. He deserves it more than Pujols.

[Olerud363]

Batted ball stats and rate stats both normalizing. K-rate dropping. Fly ball rate now down to 50% and hard hit still at 43%.

 

He has reached the OPS level of about Delgado, Snider, and Olerud's rookie seasons. Still a bit to go to catch the elite Blue Jays rookies such as McGriff or Hinske... however at this point another good game will get him there.

[Ex Player]

Vladdy will be fine. I'd rather he start a little slow and catch on over time, as opposed to start off hot and fizzle out

[gruber92]

Interesting to follow Vlad's batted ball stats. We want him to end up at apr. 20-40-40 for the two important ratios. LD, GB, FB, and Soft, Medium, Hard. He's about there for SMH. Still grounder heavy

 

Overall Vladdy is about at a Bautista 2018 level in terms of both real production and batted ball...

 

It sucks to have bad luck when you are old or young. If young everybody freaks and you might get sent back and lose 25-50 homers off your career total (like Delgado did).

 

If old you might get retired or no one wants you and the same you lose 25-50 homers.

 

If in the middle no problem. Everybody just let's you play and the luck evens out.

 

Bautista > Pujols

Bautista absolutely fine still. Hitting as good as ever especially in 2018. (he was admittedly off in 2017, but batted ball and walk rate was great in 2018).

 

Poor Bautista. Part of me wishes someone had signed him to an expensive mulit year contract, so he'd get a chance to just keep going like Pujols, just on account someone owes him 50-100 million still. He deserves it more than Pujols.

 

Lol, why?

[Olerud363]

Lol, why?

 

If you are referring to the Bautista part, looking at the batted ball data I feel like he wasn't actually done... it looks like he had some bad luck and deserved to keep going, at least as much as Pujols does.

[Muck Bartinez]

The more I watch him and get used to seeing him move around, the less I worry about his weight, at least in the short term. The first few times I saw him I couldn't get over his size, but now when I see him it doesn't seem like he's strikingly large. To me he doesn't look at all like Prince Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Tony Gwynn etc., and almost more like a football player in the lower half. He thicc but it turns me on a bit.

[Olerud363]

The more I watch him and get used to seeing him move around, the less I worry about his weight, at least in the short term. The first few times I saw him I couldn't get over his size, but now when I see him it doesn't seem like he's strikingly large. To me he doesn't look at all like Prince Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Tony Gwynn etc., and almost more like a football player in the lower half. He thicc but it turns me on a bit.

 

Agreed. When you compare him to Panda the other series, Panda had a huge gut... Vladimir was just huge. Though he has 12 more years to catch up to Panda...

 

I'm no scout, but I've impressed by his range and arm. It seems to me that the only thing preventing him from being OK at third is conditioning and work... If he can maintain his weight at 235-240, work on fundamentals, with his arm and natural hand eye coordination he should be able to handle the position. Panda himself had some great defensive years in his younger days, so no reason Vlad can't do it.

[keggy]

The more I watch him and get used to seeing him move around, the less I worry about his weight, at least in the short term. The first few times I saw him I couldn't get over his size, but now when I see him it doesn't seem like he's strikingly large. To me he doesn't look at all like Prince Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Tony Gwynn etc., and almost more like a football player in the lower half. He thicc but it turns me on a bit.

 

Guerrero's weight is absolutely a problem for a 20 year old kid with a history of injuries. Young Tony Gwynn was lean, stole 50 bases, and stayed in the outfield for his entire career. Fielder and Vaughn were fatter than Vlad, but they were first basemen with no defensive value and were finished as elite players by age 30.

 

Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones were huge third basemen who stayed at the position, but they were built like tanks and quick enough to cover shortstop. Guerrero is one undisciplined winter away from looking like Pablo Sandoval or Kendrys Morales.

 

I think we can agree that Vlad is a generational asset that could be worth $100 million in surplus value over the life of his controllable years. If upper management hasn't hired a nutritionist to count every single calorie that goes into his body 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, they need to pick up the phone and do so today.

[Spanky99]

Guerrero's weight is absolutely a problem for a 20 year old kid with a history of injuries. Young Tony Gwynn was lean, stole 50 bases, and stayed in the outfield for his entire career. Fielder and Vaughn were fatter than Vlad, but they were first basemen with no defensive value and were finished as elite players by age 30.

 

Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones were huge third basemen who stayed at the position, but they were built like tanks and quick enough to cover shortstop. Guerrero is one undisciplined winter away from looking like Pablo Sandoval or Kendrys Morales.

 

I think we can agree that Vlad is a generational asset that could be worth $100 million in surplus value over the life of his controllable years. If upper management hasn't hired a nutritionist to count every single calorie that goes into his body 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, they need to pick up the phone and do so today.

 

To be fair it wasn't Fielder's weight that ended his career, it was a degenerative spine.

[Krylian]

To be fair it wasn't Fielder's weight that ended his career, it was a degenerative spine.

 

His spine wouldn't have degenerated so fast had he been in better shape

[Spanky99]

His spine wouldn't have degenerated so fast had he been in better shape

 

Tell that to David Wright. lol... Doc.

[TheHurl]

[bones10]

 

Where are the results

[Krylian]

Where are the results

 

All 11 were outs

[bones10]

All 11 were outs

 

I meant it more as, when are we going to see vladdy start turning these high hard hit numbers into more tangible results, obviously eventually but it's frustrating.

[Krylian]

I meant it more as, when are we going to see vladdy start turning these high hard hit numbers into more tangible results, obviously eventually but it's frustrating.

 

The luck will turn around. Hitting the ball that hard consistently can only mean good days ahead.

[Laika]

By wOBA - xwOBA differential, Toronto has 3 of the 15 unluckiest hitters in baseball:

 

Jansen #3

Smoak #5

Vladdy #15 (.371 xwOBA)

[Spanky99]

By wOBA - xwOBA differential, Toronto has 3 of the 15 unluckiest hitters in baseball:

 

Jansen #3

Smoak #5

Vladdy #15 (.371 xwOBA)

 

I knew Jansen had to be there, where's Miggy?

[TheOutsider]

By wOBA - xwOBA differential, Toronto has 3 of the 15 unluckiest hitters in baseball:

 

Jansen #3

Smoak #5

Vladdy #15 (.371 xwOBA)

 

Being easily shifted on and being a slowass runner will make xWOBA less accurate. This definitely applies to Smoak and Kendrys Morales, for example.

[Laika]

Being easily shifted on and being a slowass runner will make xWOBA less accurate. This definitely applies to Smoak and Kendrys Morales, for example.

 

I doubt Vlad is or will be easily shifted on. I mean he’s a right handed hitter who doesn’t seem to have pull tendencies

[Laika]

I knew Jansen had to be there, where's Miggy?

 

Not really getting unlucky

[BlueRocky]

I doubt Vlad is or will be easily shifted on. I mean he’s a right handed hitter who doesn’t seem to have pull tendencies

 

The Vlad shift is put everyone on the warning track, especially right down the middle straight through 2B and CF

[Olerud363]

The Vlad shift is put everyone on the warning track, especially right down the middle straight through 2B and CF

 

Looking at the data he is pulling the ball a lot on the ground, and hitting hard in the air to center.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=career-r-visuals-mlb

 

If true that would probably lead to him under performing hit batted ball velocities by quite a bit.

 

a) the grounders to the pull side may be true. It is for a lot of hitters.

the hard hit line drives and fly balls all to center may not be true. Not sure if there is a reason a player would hit all his fly balls to center. Seems that will even out with some pulled and some op-o and that will help.