Charlie Montoyo Egregious Mistake Tracking Thread

[TheHurl]

It was Sanchez’s final pitch. Sam Gaviglio struck out three in three innings of scoreless relief before Daniel Hudson closed the book.

 

Sanchez was in a mood to talk about the Blue Jays offence. Sogard’s sacrifice bunt was the Blue Jays’ sixth this season. They had five all of last season.

 

“To me, that’s baseball,” Sanchez said after the Blue Jays moved to within a game of .500 in front of 22,254 at Rogers Centre. “You’re finally seeing baseball played the way it’s always been played. Launch angle … everybody trying to hit home runs … you saw guys bunting runners in and bunting runners over. Hitting and running. We’re creating havoc; it’s fun to do some things you haven’t seen done here in the past.”

 

Said Montoyo: “I told them from the beginning this is the type of team we will be.”

 

It's surprising to see in this era but we've heard all about how tough it is to get the players to buy in to things like launch angle and spin rate. I do believe that sacrificing once every game will cost you approximately 10-20 runs a year (this is by memory someone much smarter than me could probably do the math). It might be a situation where you give up some runs to win over the team and get 100% buy in by playing it the way they were taught.

[Spanky99]

It's surprising to see in this era but we've heard all about how tough it is to get the players to buy in to things like launch angle and spin rate. I do believe that sacrificing once every game will cost you approximately 10-20 runs a year (this is by memory someone much smarter than me could probably do the math). It might be a situation where you give up some runs to win over the team and get 100% buy in by playing it the way they were taught.

 

Waaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh........

[Terminator]

It's surprising to see in this era but we've heard all about how tough it is to get the players to buy in to things like launch angle and spin rate. I do believe that sacrificing once every game will cost you approximately 10-20 runs a year (this is by memory someone much smarter than me could probably do the math). It might be a situation where you give up some runs to win over the team and get 100% buy in by playing it the way they were taught.

 

10 to 20 runs is a shitload lol. Thats the equivalent of something like an elite reliever. I'm surprised to see you on board with this!

[Boxcar]

Yeah, let's listen to the guy with a 1:1 k:BB about how to play baseball

[TheHurl]

10 to 20 runs is a shitload lol. Thats the equivalent of something like an elite reliever. I'm surprised to see you on board with this!

 

not on board with it. Just trying to make sense of it. The 10 to 20 runs would also be a sacrifice every game.

 

I looked it up. It's 15 to 20 runs per 100 sacrifices.

[Grant77]

How certain are we that the team is using something as simple as a run expectancy matrix? Lots of things affect a decision like a bunt such as the pitcher, the hitter, the runner, the field, the score.

 

If all of those factors are right then maybe it is the correct decision sometimes. I don't think that we are intentionally throwing away wins out of misguided sense of loyalty to old school baseball.

[Abomination]

How certain are we that the team is using something as simple as a run expectancy matrix? Lots of things affect a decision like a bunt such as the pitcher, the hitter, the runner, the field, the score.

 

If all of those factors are right then maybe it is the correct decision sometimes. I don't think that we are intentionally throwing away wins out of misguided sense of loyalty to old school baseball.

 

We're seeing the team change fielding positions tailored specifically to each batter, for each pitcher, and each count. There's no way they're doing that and then running bunt decisions, etc off the tops of their heads imo. If they're doing it, they're almost certainly handling it the same way - and the data is likely telling them that bunting in those situations is to their advantage.

[Terminator]

You guys really have to read between the lines to come up with these explanations. What inclination has Montoyo given that he's using advanced stats to manage the team, maybe other than shifts which I'm sure an assistant is calling out anyway? Even Yost does that.

 

When asked about bunting he talks in "small ball" platitudes. Maybe Atkins is the smartest guy in the room and has cracked the code and found that bunting works and that's why Montoyo does it even with runners in scoring position. But I think the other more plausible explanation is that our manager is an idiot.

[jmomcc]

I can think of some scenarios where I think it would make sense to sacrifice bunt... but that’s just my intuition.

 

For example, with a 4 run lead in say the 6th, I would put more utility in getting one more run than maximizing my chance to get many more runs. That’s because to me the bunt increases the chance of one but decreases the chance of 2/3/4. That’s my instinct. Is there a way to figure out if that is a good idea?

[Deadpool]

not on board with it. Just trying to make sense of it. The 10 to 20 runs would also be a sacrifice every game.

 

I looked it up. It's 15 to 20 runs per 100 sacrifices.

 

At this rate, that's 30-40 runs a game...

[Deadpool]

I can think of some scenarios where I think it would make sense to sacrifice bunt... but that’s just my intuition.

 

For example, with a 4 run lead in say the 6th, I would put more utility in getting one more run than maximizing my chance to get many more runs. That’s because to me the bunt increases the chance of one but decreases the chance of 2/3/4. That’s my instinct. Is there a way to figure out if that is a good idea?

 

Yes, run expectancy matrices https://www.danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/

[jmomcc]

Yes, run expectancy matrices https://www.danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/

 

Expected runs are the average amount of runs scored in that situation?

[L54]

Yeah, let's listen to the guy with a 1:1 k:BB about how to play baseball

 

As opposed to you or what? Lol

 

Let’s listen to the guy with a 67 mph heater who can’t get the ball out of the infield off a tee about baseball then too.

[Deadpool]

Expected runs are the average amount of runs scored in that situation?

 

Yes, based on real world data, not hypotheticals.

[jmomcc]

Yes, based on real world data, not hypotheticals.

 

That wasn’t quite the question I was asking though.

 

I was wondering if there were situations where scoring one run is more likely if you bunt but scoring 3 or more runs is way less likely.

 

I don’t think run expectancy really tells you that.

 

I guess the most pure example would be, if it’s the bottom of the ninth and you need one run to win. Would your win expectancy rise if you bunted the guy to third even if your expected runs fell?

[John_Havok]

That wasn’t quite the question I was asking though.

 

I was wondering if there were situations where scoring one run is more likely if you bunt but scoring 3 or more runs is way less likely.

 

I don’t think run expectancy really tells you that.

 

I guess the most pure example would be, if it’s the bottom of the ninth and you need one run to win. Would your win expectancy rise if you bunted the guy to third even if your expected runs fell?

 

So the question you're really asking is....

 

Overall the run expectnacy goes down, but that's an average of all runs that have scored in that scenario. Some of those scenarios would be multiple runs scored, some would be 0, some would be 1.

 

You're asking if teams score 1 run more often than scoring 0 runs or multiple runs?

[jmomcc]

So the question you're really asking is....

 

Overall the run expectnacy goes down, but that's an average of all runs that have scored in that scenario. Some of those scenarios would be multiple runs scored, some would be 0, some would be 1.

 

You're asking if teams score 1 run more often than scoring 0 runs or multiple runs?

 

Yes, I think so.

 

Or, If there is a situation where the possibility of scoring 1 increases, the possibility of scoring multiple decreases and the possibility of scoring none stays the same or roughly the same?

 

Or even something like the possibility of scoring 3 or more really decreases a lot with bunting but not 1/2.

[BTS]

That wasn’t quite the question I was asking though.

 

I was wondering if there were situations where scoring one run is more likely if you bunt but scoring 3 or more runs is way less likely.

 

I don’t think run expectancy really tells you that.

 

I guess the most pure example would be, if it’s the bottom of the ninth and you need one run to win. Would your win expectancy rise if you bunted the guy to third even if your expected runs fell?

 

Bunting a runner from 2nd to 3rd with none out increases the probability of scoring at least 1 run while decreasing overall run expectancy. So it's a viable strategy if you're tied in the bottom of the 9th.

[jmomcc]

Bunting a runner from 2nd to 3rd with none out increases the probability of scoring at least 1 run while decreasing overall run expectancy. So it's a viable strategy if you're tied in the bottom of the 9th.

 

‘At least one run’ was exactly what I was trying to say but failing spectacularly lol.

 

My extension to that would be there must be other times when win expectancy is increased by increasing the possibility of scoring at least one over maximizing run expectancy.

 

It would be interesting to know what they are.

[L54]

‘At least one run’ was exactly what I was trying to say but failing spectacularly lol.

 

My extension to that would be there must be other times when win expectancy is increased by increasing the possibility of scoring at least one over maximizing run expectancy.

 

It would be interesting to know what they are.

 

Absolutely there is. I have no idea what the numbers are either but there are definitely scenarios where this applies.

 

When you have the lead you tend to use better relievers

 

You tend to hit off of worse relievers

 

I’m sure there are a dozen other reasons why increasing probability of scoring one run outweighs maximizing run expectancy

 

All the Rays fan boys should be cheering watching Montoyo manage the way he is, it’s the Rays way

[TheHurl]

Absolutely there is. I have no idea what the numbers are either but there are definitely scenarios where this applies.

 

When you have the lead you tend to use better relievers

 

You tend to hit off of worse relievers

 

I’m sure there are a dozen other reasons why increasing probability of scoring one run outweighs maximizing run expectancy

 

All the Rays fan boys should be cheering watching Montoyo manage the way he is, it’s the Rays way

 

I think expectations are the key. There is a lot of talk about the Rays way without really regularily watching Rays games. I remember the shock when people watched Maddon regualarily during the Cubs playoff run. The decisions seemed so bad to many...those of that watched the Rays on a regular basis were like "Yep that is Maddon" We don't get it sometimes but it seems to work. The sacrificing will get frustrating but for years i have said that a managers in game decisions don't matter so if he is going to throw away a few expected runs i just don't care

[saskjayfan]

Bunting a runner from 2nd to 3rd with none out increases the probability of scoring at least 1 run while decreasing overall run expectancy. So it's a viable strategy if you're tied in the bottom of the 9th.

 

so is the probability increased only if the bunt is successfully completed, or are you saying calling for a bunt with none out and a runner at 2nd will increase the expectancy of getting one run vs letting the batter hit away. Even when you call for a sacrifice, a player will not always execute and will record and not at advance the runner say 15 percent of the time or whatever it is, or even worse bunt it back to the pitcher and have the runner thrown out at third.

 

I don't really care that much and certainly don't care enough to look it up, but you guys seem like fat kids in a smartie factory when discussing this topic, so I thought I would further your fun.

[Deadpool]

I think we can just go ahead and call "pinch running for Vladdy Jr. in a tie game with one out in the 9th" to the list, all in favour?

[Rusty_Savage]

I think we can just go ahead and call "pinch running for Vladdy Jr. in a tie game with one out in the 9th" to the list, all in favour?

 

Aye.

 

That was f***ing dumb

[jmomcc]

Yea, no argument on that.

[Terminator]

I think we can just go ahead and call "pinch running for Vladdy Jr. in a tie game with one out in the 9th" to the list, all in favour?

 

Yep. I've seen situations where he doesnt even run for Tellez in the 9th. Is Hanson even faster than Vlad Jr.? I bet it's closer than we think. I think Maile has a higher recorded sprint speed than Hanson this year.

[G-Snarls]

Same opinion here

 

Prob don't need to pinch run for Vlad

 

He looks ugly running but I think his speed is average

 

And goddamn if you don't score you sure miss him in the lineup later on

[Spanky99]

I think we can just go ahead and call "pinch running for Vladdy Jr. in a tie game with one out in the 9th" to the list, all in favour?

 

He did this Friday night after the double, and bunted... like WTF? I was fuming.

[G-Snarls]

He did this Friday night after the double, and bunted... like WTF? I was fuming.

 

Seriously though

 

Jays are fortunately winning these games despite Montoyo

[glory]

The only thing I can think of is the team doesn't want Vlad to run the bases in that moment because of concerns about getting hurt in a rundown or from having to run from 1st to potentially 3rd or home.

 

Otherwise I am at a loss for why Vlad was taken out today.