Around Baseball 2019

[Orgfiller]

Chance Adams DFA'd by the Yanks. He was a really interesting sleeper arm a couple of years ago but it hasn't worked in MLB or in AAA the last two years. Kind of reminds me of SRF. Pretty sure he has an option. Has never really been given the chance to just be a reliever other than the 20 innings in the MLB in 2019. I'd take him in the pen over some of the current dudes with options.

 

His stuff is really gross, maybe he's been injured or something, but a fastball that averaged less than 92 mph as a RHP out of the bullpen is super gross and I don't think he's known for having elite secondaries either. It's a hard pass unless you can convince me there's more under the hood than there appears on the surface.

[Laika]

His stuff is really gross, maybe he's been injured or something, but a fastball that averaged less than 92 mph as a RHP out of the bullpen is super gross and I don't think he's known for having elite secondaries either. It's a hard pass unless you can convince me there's more under the hood than there appears on the surface.

 

Elite (or nearly elite) spin on the 4 seamer and slider.

 

I think his velo backed up a bit recently and he needs to understand himself differently, as a spin-doctor relief pitcher.

 

Things are different, however, for Adams this upcoming season. He’ll get to work with new Yankees’ pitching coach Matt Blake who is directly responsible for the success of current Indians arms Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, and Jefry Rodriguez.

 

The 33-year-old Blake is regarded as a coach that’s heavily reliant on analytics and a progressive believer in biometrics. The Yankees are hoping that Blake’s analytical and technological approach can help the Yankees’ pitching staff, including Adams.

 

Someone that Blake has previously worked with that has a similar profile to Adams is Aaron Civale, who I previously mentioned benefited greatly from his work with Blake. Civale made his major-league debut with the Indians in 2019, posting a stellar 2.34 ERA, along with a 3.40 FIP, 4.61 xFIP, and a 4.74 SIERA.

 

Both Adams and Civale are low-velocity, high-spin-rate right-handers. Adams has 32nd-percentile fastball velocity, 87th-percentile fastball spin, and 94th-percentile breaking ball spin. Civale has 18th-percentile fastball velocity, 85th-percentile fastball spin, and 96th-percentile breaking ball spin.

[Laika]

Hyun-Jin Ryu is very arguably the top starter remaining on the free-agent market, though his injury history is a clear red flag despite the southpaw’s dominant showing over the past couple of seasons. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported earlier this week that Ryu was “expected” to top four years and $80MM on his next contract, but on this morning’s appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show (video link), Rosenthal indicated that multiple teams have since told him they were immediately skeptical of that price point: “I heard from a couple of clubs yesterday that said ’That’s not going to happen — not with that medical history.'”

 

Certainly, that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a four-year pact for Ryu, but the pushback serves to underscore what makes Ryu such a polarizing free agent. The 32-year-old (33 in March) has a 2.21 ERA over his past 265 innings and a 2.71 ERA in 391 2/3 innings dating back to 2017. On a per-inning basis, he’s among the market’s elite options, but Ryu’s age and injury history likely have some teams steering clear of him on any type of notable multi-year arrangement. It only takes one team to push to four years, but to this point, his realistic price tag is hard to pin down.

 

More on Ryu and the rest of the pitching market…

 

Ryu’s agent Scott Boras, who also represents lefty Dallas Keuchel, chatted with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand about the two free-agent southpaws and (unsurprisingly) offered optimism that a deal could come together in the near future. “Clubs are identifying their needs, and we’re certainly narrowing the corridor of finality,” Boras said with characteristic idiosyncrasy. “It could happen soon.” Meanwhile, Bruce Levine of 670AM The Score/CBS Chicago writes that the White Sox are interested in both Boras lefties, also implying that the team might find it preferable to add a free-agent of that ilk rather than for a one-year rental (e.g. Robbie Ray). The ChiSox are still hopeful of reeling in a rotation upgrade but are wary of surrendering notable young talent for a one-year upgrade.

[BTS]

"narrowing the corridor of finality" sounds like a song written by a Scandinavian metal band

[Deadpool]

Hyun-Jin Ryu is very arguably the top starter remaining on the free-agent market, though his injury history is a clear red flag despite the southpaw’s dominant showing over the past couple of seasons. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported earlier this week that Ryu was “expected” to top four years and $80MM on his next contract, but on this morning’s appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show (video link), Rosenthal indicated that multiple teams have since told him they were immediately skeptical of that price point: “I heard from a couple of clubs yesterday that said ’That’s not going to happen — not with that medical history.'”

 

Certainly, that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a four-year pact for Ryu, but the pushback serves to underscore what makes Ryu such a polarizing free agent. The 32-year-old (33 in March) has a 2.21 ERA over his past 265 innings and a 2.71 ERA in 391 2/3 innings dating back to 2017. On a per-inning basis, he’s among the market’s elite options, but Ryu’s age and injury history likely have some teams steering clear of him on any type of notable multi-year arrangement. It only takes one team to push to four years, but to this point, his realistic price tag is hard to pin down.

 

More on Ryu and the rest of the pitching market…

 

Ryu’s agent Scott Boras, who also represents lefty Dallas Keuchel, chatted with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand about the two free-agent southpaws and (unsurprisingly) offered optimism that a deal could come together in the near future. “Clubs are identifying their needs, and we’re certainly narrowing the corridor of finality,” Boras said with characteristic idiosyncrasy. “It could happen soon.” Meanwhile, Bruce Levine of 670AM The Score/CBS Chicago writes that the White Sox are interested in both Boras lefties, also implying that the team might find it preferable to add a free-agent of that ilk rather than for a one-year rental (e.g. Robbie Ray). The ChiSox are still hopeful of reeling in a rotation upgrade but are wary of surrendering notable young talent for a one-year upgrade.

 

I don't think he's necessarily worth 4/$80, but I think that's what it might take to get him to Toronto, and I'd be okay with that. Substantially more in dollar value, or even 1 more year and I'm probably out.

[glory]

[z3r0s]

 

The Brewers are collecting quite a few former Jays and Jays targets.

Must be the Canadian influence.

[Laika]

"There’s certainly some evidence to suggest that the Brewers could hit gold with this signing. Smoak’s .323 wOBA lagged the .366 xwOBA he registered with Statcast, suggesting there could be some positive regression in the batted-ball department."

Hmmm I have heard that one before!

[BTS]

1 year 5M for Smoak. I wonder if he wanted to win, or if it was more the team that wanted to go in a different direction.

[Laika]

1 year 5M for Smoak. I wonder if he wanted to win, or if it was more the team that wanted to go in a different direction.

 

I think both, probably.

 

I doubt Toronto even made an official offer but even if they did it would have been a one year offer and I could see him taking the $5M in Milwaukee anyway.

 

The team really f***ing needs another 1B option though. I can't stomach Rowdy Tellez being handed the assignment with only, I dunno, Brandon Drury behind him? f*** me.

[bzapple]

Who's even the longest tenured Jay now? Urena?

[BTS]

I think both, probably.

 

I doubt Toronto even made an official offer but even if they did it would have been a one year offer and I could see him taking the $5M in Milwaukee anyway.

 

The team really f***ing needs another 1B option though. I can't stomach Rowdy Tellez being handed the assignment with only, I dunno, Brandon Drury behind him? f*** me.

 

1 year 4M guarantee with a 1M buyout on a 5.5M team option. Seems like the team probably would have been cool with those terms given the dearth of guys left on the FA market at 1B.

 

Market is starting to get pretty thin. Thames is probably the best of the bunch. Then its crusty near-replacement vets like Moreland and Cron. Maybe a flier on Greg Bird?

[Laika]

Who's even the longest tenured Jay now? Urena?

 

On the roster I think it's Teoscar lmao.

 

As far the longest tenured organizational 40-man player I think it's Anthony Alford lmao even more.

[Laika]

1 year 4M guarantee with a 1M buyout on a 5.5M team option. Seems like the team probably would have been cool with those terms given the dearth of guys left on the FA market at 1B.

 

Market is starting to get pretty thin. Thames is probably the best of the bunch. Then its crusty near-replacement vets like Moreland and Cron. Maybe a flier on Greg Bird?

 

I don't see much gap between Cron and Smoak.

 

Of course I would love to see Greg Bird in blue.

[glory]

1 year 4M guarantee with a 1M buyout on a 5.5M team option. Seems like the team probably would have been cool with those terms given the dearth of guys left on the FA market at 1B.

 

Market is starting to get pretty thin. Thames is probably the best of the bunch. Then its crusty near-replacement vets like Moreland and Cron. Maybe a flier on Greg Bird?

 

Travis Shaw.

 

Or trade for Dominic Smith.

[Pendleton]

1 year 4M guarantee with a 1M buyout on a 5.5M team option. Seems like the team probably would have been cool with those terms given the dearth of guys left on the FA market at 1B.

 

Market is starting to get pretty thin. Thames is probably the best of the bunch. Then its crusty near-replacement vets like Moreland and Cron. Maybe a flier on Greg Bird?

 

Someone like Thames vs righties, maybe Dietrich who was mashing pre injury last year and grades as a good defender at 1B. Also bring in Wilmer Flores to mash lefties.

[bzapple]

On the roster I think it's Teoscar lmao.

 

As far the longest tenured organizational 40-man player I think it's Anthony Alford lmao even more.

 

Amazing how much the roster has turned over in the last two seasons. I guess Tepera is still a free agent so there's a chance he's back, but he and Smoak were the last remaining members of the 2015 team.

[P2F]

I think both, probably.

 

I doubt Toronto even made an official offer but even if they did it would have been a one year offer and I could see him taking the $5M in Milwaukee anyway.

 

The team really f***ing needs another 1B option though. I can't stomach Rowdy Tellez being handed the assignment with only, I dunno, Brandon Drury behind him? f*** me.

 

Atkins said earlier in the offseason that Teoscar was working out at 1B. If the idea truly is to move him there, that might be why the team hasn't exactly jumped on any of the current FA options. And if Teoscar can play the position even passably, I think I'd prefer him over any of the other internal options.

[P2F]

Official deets on the Smoak contract:

 

[G-Snarls]

Gerrit Cole showing the sign he brought to watch the Yankees play in 2001:

 

Edited December 19, 2019 by G-Snarls

[BTS]

Indians listening on Clevinger. Get it done, Shatkins.

[L54]

Would have to imagine a Clevinger deal starts with Groshans. Not overly interested in that, by the time he’s ready Vlad will be on his way to 1B.

[jays4life19]

Would have to imagine a Clevinger deal starts with Groshans. Not overly interested in that, by the time he’s ready Vlad will be on his way to 1B.

 

Yeah they would deffo ask for Pearson or Groshans and a couple other top guys.

 

Would probably take something like Groshans, SWR, Orelvis Martinez. Pass for me too.

[BTS]

Would have to imagine a Clevinger deal starts with Groshans. Not overly interested in that, by the time he’s ready Vlad will be on his way to 1B.

 

I'd pretty easily move Groshans+ for Clevinger. It's 3 years of a legit ace, and then I think you try hard to lock in those arb salaries in exchange for a longer-term extension.

[G-Snarls]

I'd pretty easily move Groshans+ for Clevinger. It's 3 years of a legit ace, and then I think you try hard to lock in those arb salaries in exchange for a longer-term extension.

 

Hurry up before the Dodgers trade for Clevinger and Lindor in a double franchise-shattering move

[G-Snarls]

Clevinger only expcted to get ~ $4.5M as an arb-1 this year. Still so cheap...

 

Lindor is getting expensive though

[BTS]

He sits 95-96, and has 4 average or better pitches that he throws at least 10% of the time. The only starters to generate more swinging strikes last year were Verlander, Cole, deGrom, Scherzer, and Castillo. I think you could convincingly make the argument that the only starter who was clearly better on a per-inning basis last year was Gerrit Cole. I get that he was hurt and missed 10 starts, but it was a back strain and not arm or shoulder related. If you're going to unload good prospects, buying an ace for the top of the rotation is probably how you want to spend them.

[z3r0s]

If you can get Clev without trading Pearson, that is how we can build a rotation to support the kids. Especially if that's a Grohans who is far from a sure thing atm.

Then just spend some cash and bring in Ryu and/or Keuchel

[Laika]

If you think they are good for 4 WAR and 3 WAR respectively, Clevinger + Ryu is probably a 5 win upgrade for the 2020 Blue Jays. That would make them what, a .500 team?

[BTS]

If you think they are good for 4 WAR and 3 WAR respectively, Clevinger + Ryu is probably a 5 win upgrade for the 2020 Blue Jays. That would make them what, a .500 team?

 

Yeah, it's like an 81-82 win team that costs like 110M with no real long term commitments but Ryu and a still loaded farm. Could make other additions to push it to 84-85 wins.