General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Bobthe4th]

Did he get a promotion or something? Losing a productive front office guy to a gong show like PIT would be worrying if it's just a lateral move.

 

[L54]

Having employees within your organization who are sought after and given promotions within the industry is a net positive.

[Grant77]

How ex-GM J.P. Ricciardi showed Blue Jays can be free-agent force

 

Shi Davidi | @shidavidi

December 6, 2019, 9:30 AM

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TORONTO – This sort of feels like a moment for the Toronto Blue Jays, and not in a good way.

 

The pitching market looks to be zipping past them with the winter meetings opening Monday in San Diego, and Chase Anderson is the only pitcher sure to be in their starting rotation come opening day 2020. There’s plenty to do beyond the rotation, too, from addressing the outfield and fixing the bullpen to hiring a new amateur scouting director, perhaps the most crucial task ahead of a potentially franchise-altering draft in which they hold the No. 5 overall pick.

 

 

And as names continue to come off the board – cancel those Michael Pineda jersey orders, stat – the crucible of public pressure around the club intensifies, with meaningful moves needed to avert the devolvement into a full-blown crisis of confidence.

 

 

Now, there’s still enough off-season and opportunity on the market remaining that it’s way, way too premature to fairly post-mortem the off-season. The Blue Jays may yet leverage their months of prep work into legitimate and needed progress for the overall program.

 

Still, given the optimism and opportunity afforded by the ample financial flexibility they carried into the winter, this is a dangerous spot to be in, vulnerable to the type of default spends to fill gaping roster holes that so often lead to bad, payroll-hampering contracts.

 

That’s why there’s a markedly different feel right now than there was 14 years ago, the last time the Blue Jays entered a winter with a similar combination of financial flexibility and naked ambition. That off-season, then-GM J.P. Ricciardi signed free agents A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan and convinced Troy Glaus to waive his no-trade clause, facilitating a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, to boldly upgrade an 80-82 club.

 

Then, as now, the Blue Jays faced the usual list of challenges in luring players to Canada – the

unknown of being in a foreign country and the lack of appeal in joining a team playing AL East catch-up chief among them – but once they identified whom they wanted to target, they fought through the array of excuses.

 

“Most free agents want three things,” says Ricciardi, now a senior advisor to San Francisco Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. “They want the most money they can make; they want to be as close to their home as they can be; and they want to be on a winning club. Sometimes, you just can’t get as close to their home as they want, so you’ve got to try and create the other two things. Once Rogers (Communications Inc., the team owner) gave us the money to work with in Toronto, we weren’t going to let that fall apart and sit there and say, ‘Oh my God, we didn’t get these guys.’ So we just 100 per cent put on the full-court press.”

 

 

That meant, in part, accepting that “we were going to have be a little more on the years with the contracts in the realm of trying to be creative, and we were going to have to overspend,” Ricciardi adds.

 

Knowing that was going to be the cost of doing business in free agency, the Blue Jays decided to target the players they most wanted, reasoning that if they were going to overspend, better to do it on the guys they believed in most.

 

“We weren’t going to take the talent and go, we hope this guy is going to be good,” he explains. “We thought that we evaluated them the right way, so we had no problem with an extra year and we had no problem with the money.”

 

Even with that, the Blue Jays had to “work 24-7” to get their signatures on a deal. Ricciardi marvelled at how “not only players but families looked at Canada like it was going to Europe to play,” and he and his wife Diane regularly preached the city’s merits. “We still love Toronto, and we kept trying to explain to people, listen we’re Americans, and we can’t tell you enough about how nice it is up here, how you’ll really enjoy playing here and all the city has to offer, especially compared to some of the other places. I mean, it’s not even close. Toronto is an international, fun city.”

 

That was part of the pitch, which started with calls to the representatives for Burnett and Ryan the minute free agency opened. Ricciardi and others flew in to meet the players. The club arranged visits for them and prepared promotional videos. Roy Halladay served as their guide.

 

 

“We pulled out every possible stop we could, we recruited them like they were college players for a big-time program,” says Ricciardi. “They saw the passion we had for trying to build a winner in Toronto. I was very honest. I told them these are the challenges we have – we’re facing the Yankees and the Red Sox and they’re not going away, their payroll is not going away. But you have a chance to be on a team that can take the title from those guys. My whole heart and soul was in it and we tried to let those guys see that everybody in the organization was pulling on the rope in the same way and was 100 per cent invested in the Blue Jays being successful.”

 

Ryan was the first to sign, agreeing to a $47-million, five-year deal at the end of November. A week or so later, Burnett followed, turning down the St. Louis Cardinals to accept a $55-million, five-year deal that included an opt out after the third season. Two weeks after that, the Blue Jays nailed down a deal that sent Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista to the Diamondbacks for Glaus and Sergio Santos, a trade that required the slugging third baseman’s approval.

 

“I can remember Christmas Eve at 6 o’clock, my wife screaming at me to get off the phone as I was trying to talk him into coming to Toronto,” says Ricciardi. “I remember his agent getting on the phone with me and saying, ‘I don’t know what the hell you told this guy, but he’s fired up to come to Toronto.’”

 

At the beginning of February 2006, the Blue Jays made another splash, adding catcher Bengie Molina on a $4.5-million, one-year deal. They finished 87-75 that year, good for second in the AL East, and while they didn’t reach the post-season during the competitive window that was opened, the players they acquired helped lead the charge.

 

Burnett was worth nearly seven wins during his three seasons with the Blue Jays before opting out. Ryan was a five-win player during the two seasons around his 2008 Tommy John surgery, before being bought out of the final year and a half of his contract. Glaus produced nearly eight wins in two seasons before he was flipped to the St. Louis Cardinals for Scott Rolen.

 

 

“Look, free agency, it’s not a place you want to be in,” says Ricciardi. “But if you want to be good, sometimes you have to bite the bullet, step up. I look at Ryan, he had two great years for us around Tommy John and then he just lost it. I look at Burnett, I would do those three years over again any day.

 

“Was it a gamble? Yeah it was a little bit of gamble, but we weren’t playing with traditional rules at the time in Toronto. We had to take some chances. We had to be willing to fail because we didn’t have an unlimited payroll. Everything we did – some of it was good, some of it was bad – we didn’t do it being afraid. We did it like, if we fail, we fail, but we’re going to go down swinging.”

 

Courage, conviction and determination helped the Blue Jays to a transformative winter 14 years ago. The business of baseball may have changed immensely since then, but doses of all three are needed amid the objective analysis and disciplined valuations that rule the day now, too.

[Terminator]

Jays pass in the Rule 5

[Laika]

Jays pass in the Rule 5

 

This is probably a good sign. Hopefully they fill out the 26 man roster with FA signings and trade acquisitions rather than crummy rule 5 players like Luciano. I think they need to replace:

 

- Borucki (1 option) with a SP

- Alford (no options, cut him) with a decent player who can play CF

- Tellez (1 option) with a better bat who can play 1B and maybe an OF corner

- Urena (no options, cut him) with a better bench MIF option

- 2 or 3 of SRF, Pannone, Gaviglio, Romano, Waguespack (all have options) with better relievers

 

Some of the above could be accomplished without directly replacing the player but by signing adequate veteran MiLB depth like Sogard last year.

[BTS]

This is probably a good sign. Hopefully they fill out the 26 man roster with FA signings and trade acquisitions rather than crummy rule 5 players like Luciano. I think they need to replace:

 

- Borucki (1 option) with a SP

- Alford (no options, cut him) with a decent player who can play CF

- Tellez (1 option) with a better bat who can play 1B and maybe an OF corner

- Urena (no options, cut him) with a better bench MIF option

- 2 or 3 of SRF, Pannone, Gaviglio, Romano, Waguespack (all have options) with better relievers

 

Some of the above could be accomplished without directly replacing the player but by signing adequate veteran MiLB depth like Sogard last year.

 

Urena's continued presence on this roster is annoying to me. He's not good, and serves no purpose now that he's out of options. Same for Breyvic Valera. I at least understand why they'd hold on Alford, because there are tools and upside there.

[Pendleton]

Urena's continued presence on this roster is annoying to me. He's not good, and serves no purpose now that he's out of options. Same for Breyvic Valera. I at least understand why they'd hold on Alford, because there are tools and upside there.

 

There were a handful of bats available in the rule V who would have been more interesting than Urena, so he better not end up on the 26 man.

[devo]

The Giants selected Dany Jimenez from us. They sure do love our fringe pitching prospects..

[Terminator]

This is probably a good sign. Hopefully they fill out the 26 man roster with FA signings and trade acquisitions rather than crummy rule 5 players like Luciano. I think they need to replace:

 

- Borucki (1 option) with a SP

- Alford (no options, cut him) with a decent player who can play CF

- Tellez (1 option) with a better bat who can play 1B and maybe an OF corner

- Urena (no options, cut him) with a better bench MIF option

- 2 or 3 of SRF, Pannone, Gaviglio, Romano, Waguespack (all have options) with better relievers

 

Some of the above could be accomplished without directly replacing the player but by signing adequate veteran MiLB depth like Sogard last year.

 

That's exactly what I was thinking.

[Brownie19]

The Giants selected Dany Jimenez from us. They sure do love our fringe pitching prospects..

 

They're still pissed we got Biagini from them and are doing everything they can to get their revenge.

[jaysguy44]

Jays pass in the Rule 5

 

Didn't they pick up Hobie Harris?

[Brownie19]

Didn't they pick up Hobie Harris?

 

In the minor league portion of it.

[Ex Player]

I didnt know where else to put this. If you have a problem with it, just ask a mod to remove

 

https://www.tmz.com/2019/12/13/josh-donaldson-mlb-atlanta-braves-mom-car-maserati-smoking/

 

Pretty cool. When I quit smoking I got nothing....LOL

[Carlos Danger]

This is probably a good sign. Hopefully they fill out the 26 man roster with FA signings and trade acquisitions rather than crummy rule 5 players like Luciano. I think they need to replace:

 

- Borucki (1 option) with a SP

- Alford (no options, cut him) with a decent player who can play CF

- Tellez (1 option) with a better bat who can play 1B and maybe an OF corner

- Urena (no options, cut him) with a better bench MIF option

- 2 or 3 of SRF, Pannone, Gaviglio, Romano, Waguespack (all have options) with better relievers

 

Some of the above could be accomplished without directly replacing the player but by signing adequate veteran MiLB depth like Sogard last year.

 

Where do you think you can get a SP that replaces ACEucki's 2018 that easily? And a lefty at that... A healthy ACEucki is a solid SP, I wouldn't just dump him for maybe a grass in greener... Why don't we give him a season injury free to see if he can replicate. He has a great makeup, seemed to be improving in velocity from 2018 in 2019 ST, then cam down with injuries. I would not give up on him, just like that...

[Laika]

Where do you think you can get a SP that replaces ACEucki's 2018 that easily? And a lefty at that... A healthy ACEucki is a solid SP, I wouldn't just dump him for maybe a grass in greener... Why don't we give him a season injury free to see if he can replicate. He has a great makeup, seemed to be improving in velocity from 2018 in 2019 ST, then cam down with injuries. I would not give up on him, just like that...

 

He'd be their 6th SP. He has an option. He'd probably start ~25 MLB games if he's healthy. Do you know how baseball works?

[Carlos Danger]

He'd be their 6th SP. He has an option. He'd probably start ~25 MLB games if he's healthy. Do you know how baseball works?

 

Please inform me of who our 5 SPs are who are healthy and put up better numbers than ACEucki, 2018 season?

[Laika]

Please inform me of who our 5 SPs are who are healthy and put up better numbers than ACEucki, 2018 season?

 

It was 97 innings with a horrendous K/BB. He also missed basically all of 2019 so even if he is good the kid could use some time in AAA to get back in form. Relax, Carlos.

[Jimcanuck]

Assuming no further acquisitions.

 

Current SP depth chart:

 

Roark

Anderson

Thornton

Shoemaker

Kay/Borucki/Waguespack/Zeuch

 

Slot Pearson in there somewhere by mid-July. At that point, the rotation is 1 good arm from sufficient for a contender.

[Sorrow]

He's also had three elbow injuries in his career, I honestly don't think that Borucki is going to be a SP again, might have an okay 'pen career.

[Laika]

Assuming no further acquisitions.

 

Current SP depth chart:

 

Roark

Anderson

Thornton

Shoemaker

Kay/Borucki/Waguespack/Zeuch

 

Slot Pearson in there somewhere by mid-July. At that point, the rotation is 1 good arm from sufficient for a contender.

 

That's possible but quite optimistic. There's a decent chance that some of these guys suck in 2020. I could see Roark, Anderson, and Thornton all getting murdered. Shoemaker could barely pitch.

[Carlos Danger]

That's possible but quite optimistic. There's a decent chance that some of these guys suck in 2020. I could see Roark, Anderson, and Thornton all getting murdered. Shoemaker could barely pitch.

 

This we agree on.

[BTS]

Assuming no further acquisitions.

 

Current SP depth chart:

 

Roark

Anderson

Thornton

Shoemaker

Kay/Borucki/Waguespack/Zeuch

 

Slot Pearson in there somewhere by mid-July. At that point, the rotation is 1 good arm from sufficient for a contender.

 

Meh. I don't really see it. It's still one of the very worst rotations in baseball, projected at 6.6 fWAR, ahead of only Baltimore. The only starter they have that Steamer projects for an ERA under 5 is... SRF? Adding Ryu might take their projection to a bit over 10 fWAR, but it's still bottom-10.

 

If you're a contender looking at a WS, I see:

 

- three guys who you'd be content to slot in as your 5th starter (Roark, Anderson, Thornton)

- a guy that you'd like to see in your rotation, but that you're not counting on as a top-5 guy (Shoemaker)

- a bunch optionable arms with back end ceilings and AAA floors that you have as depth in AAA (Kay, Borucki, Waguespack, Zeuch, SRF etc...)

- Pearson, who's the only guy in at AAA or higher with front of rotation upside, and should be up as soon as he carves up a couple of AAA lineups

[saskjayfan]

He's also had three elbow injuries in his career, I honestly don't think that Borucki is going to be a SP again, might have an okay 'pen career.

 

Borucki had a tough year, but in the end he had minor surgery to remove a bone spur and is expected to fully ready for spring. He increased his innings every year from 2016 to 2018 from 135 to 175. He had good command in the minors and showed quite well as a rookie. He had a pretty good spring in 2019 with an eyebrow raising uptick in velocity. Injuries robbed him of the regular season.

 

We will see how he shows in the spring. Maybe that velocity isn't there. Regardless, I think it's a tad pre-mature to be giving up on Borucki as a starter. It's going to be interesting to see what happens at the end of spring if a couple of these young starters have good springs.

[Key22]

After reading MLBtraderumours and the discussion Ryu's next contract - the Jays are apparently in on him but up against the Dodgers and Twins, Cardinals. They make the case that the market is higher than predicted and their initial $54m/3 won't get it done. He was second in CY Young Voting and first in E.RA and doesn't walk people and gets tons of groundballs.

 

Apparently the Jays have offered more money to Porcello and he went with a team that has a better chance to win. Ryu may be the same - at a certain point you get rich enough and what you want is world series ring.

 

I know they say money talks but for a team like the Jays I can't see the guy coming here if the money is close. I think the floor of his deal would be $60m/3 and that might be what a contender gives him.

 

With what was given to pitchers so far - I Could see the Jays having to pony up $88m/4 or $100m/5.

 

Are we comfortable with that? Indeed, this still may be low - I mean the agents for Ryu could very well make the case their client is a better pitcher than Wheeler. So they could argue the AAV should be higher at $25 million per so $100m/4. Yes Wheeler is higher upside etc but Ryu has the statistical results and stats talk.

 

The contract would run until he turns 37 - plenty of pitchers are still good at 37 - but will Ryu be good?

[Jimcanuck]

After reading MLBtraderumours and the discussion Ryu's next contract - the Jays are apparently in on him but up against the Dodgers and Twins, Cardinals. They make the case that the market is higher than predicted and their initial $54m/3 won't get it done. He was second in CY Young Voting and first in E.RA and doesn't walk people and gets tons of groundballs.

 

Apparently the Jays have offered more money to Porcello and he went with a team that has a better chance to win. Ryu may be the same - at a certain point you get rich enough and what you want is world series ring.

 

I know they say money talks but for a team like the Jays I can't see the guy coming here if the money is close. I think the floor of his deal would be $60m/3 and that might be what a contender gives him.

 

With what was given to pitchers so far - I Could see the Jays having to pony up $88m/4 or $100m/5.

 

Are we comfortable with that? Indeed, this still may be low - I mean the agents for Ryu could very well make the case their client is a better pitcher than Wheeler. So they could argue the AAV should be higher at $25 million per so $100m/4. Yes Wheeler is higher upside etc but Ryu has the statistical results and stats talk.

 

The contract would run until he turns 37 - plenty of pitchers are still good at 37 - but will Ryu be good?

 

Shatkins will never give Ryu $88/4 or $100/5. $100/4? You crazy?

 

Ryu has a considerably higher risk of falling apart than Tulo when he was acquired.

[Laika]

Shatkins will never give Ryu $88/4 or $100/5. $100/4? You crazy?

 

Ryu has a considerably higher risk of falling apart than Tulo when he was acquired.

 

It seems like that's what it will take though. Nearly every top FA is getting one more year and/or a higher AAV than predicted. People thought Ryu might get 3 years with an AAV of 16M or 17M - it might take four years and closer to 20M. Five years would be batshit. A $25M AAV is batshit. But 4/$80 might be what he gets. Or we might see something approaching the Arrieta contract - high AAV on a 3 year pact.

[Laika]

If getting Ryu entails an $80M+ investment then I would more than happy with Toronto turning their focus to Keuchel.

 

Keuchel has not been getting a lot of focus in Blue Jays land because the need is a top of the rotation starter and Dallas Keuchel ostensibly seems to be trending towards a mid-rotation option, or worse. He is almost 32, averaged about 88mph on the fastball last year, and he had a 4.72 FIP.

 

Based on the negatives MLBTR said in their Ryu article today that their initial prediction of a 3/$39M contract for Keuchel still seems reasonable. That's a stone's throw from tacking one extra year onto the Tanner Roark contract.

 

But I think there is some under the radar value with Keuchel. He has averaged 89.1mph in his career so his 88.4mph mean in 2019 was not far off his normal - he just was not able to reach back for the 90mph+ as often. The late start and abnormal spring might have had something to do with it.

 

Keuchel's K and BB numbers in 2019 were generally in line with his career marks. He still had an ERA under 4 and on his bWAR was a healthy 2.1 in his 112.2 IP. His DRA on BP was a decent 4.25, good for 1.9 WARP in his abbreviated season. So if he had have pitched a full season with his rate stats he would have approached or surpassed 3 wins by any measure other than fWAR.

 

He's a year younger than Ryu. He offers the promise and potential of stability that Ryu lacks. Yeah, there is less upside - Ryu is coming off a 5 WAR season and that upside is palpable for him and very likely not part of Keuchel's package anymore.

 

Remember that Toronto's main goal is rotation stabilization, it's not exactly to add a playoff Ace. Even if Keuchel is a #3/4 for the rest of his career, if he could reliably be that for the duration of his contract then he'd be a great signing, and in 2019 he could be the veteran leader the pitching staff needs. Toronto traded for Mark Beuhrle before his age 34 season and I think we can all agree Buehrle's 3 years with the organization were excellent.

 

If we think about a 3 or 4 year contract for Keuchel it's not hard to envision him being the grizzled veteran lefty that stabilizes the 2021 or 2022 rotation as this young core finally blossoms into a playoff team. The new Bark Meuhrle.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Another option to Ryu is David Price. I'll bet we could get both Price and Jackie Bradley Jr (fills that hole - for one year at least) and it wouldn't sting much.

 

If we ate the full salary, we could maybe get prospects back. Give up Zoiks and Teoscar.

[Laika]

Another option to Ryu is David Price. I'll bet we could get both Price and Jackie Bradley Jr (fills that hole - for one year at least) and it wouldn't sting much.

 

If we ate the full salary, we could maybe get prospects back. Give up Zoiks and Teoscar.

 

That's a terrible route. Price is owed like 3/$96 and is over 34 years old. JBJ is a free agent after 2020 IIRC. Does not make any sense whatsoever and would nothing but be a desperation move.

 

I don't see any reasonable way that the trade balances out and makes sense vs. just signing Ryu or Keuchel

[SaskJaysFan_2]

That's a terrible route. Price is owed like 3/$96 and is over 34 years old. JBJ is a free agent after 2020 IIRC. Does not make any sense whatsoever and would nothing but be a desperation move.

 

I don't see any reasonable way that the trade balances out and makes sense vs. just signing Ryu or Keuchel

 

We will not be able to just sign either pitcher. No one wants to come here.

 

Price will be at ~ 2 WAR for a while yet. We need that. We have lots of money. The prospects coming back would take the sting out of the salary.

 

JBJ could be extended, or traded for more prospects. And to trade Wag and Teoscar, or some combination, would clear out a lot of the log jam.

 

What is a terrible route is just having faith that we can sign someone like Ryu. #thoughtsandprayers