Would calling Vladdy up be a bad idea?

[King]

Vlad is certainly good enough to get called up now. But he's projected to be a 108 wRC+ bat. How much does that actually improve the team? And then whatever improvement that is, is it worth losing a year in his prime? If he's the ~7 WAR player we all think he is, that extra year is worth a shitload, north of $50 million.

 

There's a reason the Cubs dicked around with Bryant, the Braves with Acuna, etc.

 

108 wRC+ is one of the best steamer projections ever for a 19 year old.

[Bobthe4th]

If he gets called up in September, the team has to leave him down most of the way through May next year to push his free agency back a year. That will create a massive issue if he mashes in September, and then through spring next year. I don't see any reason at all to leave him down until September, and then call him up then. If they're f***ing around with service time, he stays down all year and comes up April 20th, 2019, or whatever the date is.

 

Well the reason would be for development, not service time. I.e. he gets the rest of the minor league season, then when that's over gets September as a trial to see if he can play 3B and hit in the majors. Then if he does succeed, you're more confident about potentially losing Donaldson and handing 3B to Vlad for 2019.

[TheHurl]

Sorry I should have posted the whole article I got that quote from. it's Doug's Future Jays article. There are lots of quotes from Adkins and Cherington in it.

 

https://futurebluejays.com/2018/05/05/when-is-it-time-to-promote-a-prospect/

[saskjayfan]

Call him up for what? To give the team a fighting chance at a 2nd WC? They'd have that same chance without him. Just dump Morales and it will be fine.

 

But 2019? He should be the starting 3b.

 

is vladdy really going to be able to field 3b at the MLB on a regular basis? Transition him to first. He's a first baseman.

[Terminator]

108 wRC+ is one of the best steamer projections ever for a 19 year old.

 

I'm sure it is, he's quite the player.

[P2F]

I'm sure it is, he's quite the player.

 

Steamer doesn't know how to properly project prospects with no MLB experience.

[Terminator]

Well the reason would be for development, not service time. I.e. he gets the rest of the minor league season, then when that's over gets September as a trial to see if he can play 3B and hit in the majors. Then if he does succeed, you're more confident about potentially losing Donaldson and handing 3B to Vlad for 2019.

 

I don't necessarily buy the development aspect of it though it is an excuse to keep him down if we want, albeit a pretty transparent excuse. I'm sure his defense isn't that great right now but he can play some 3B and DH some. It's purely a service time thing for me.

[Bobthe4th]

I don't necessarily buy the development aspect of it though it is an excuse to keep him down if we want, albeit a pretty transparent excuse. I'm sure his defense isn't that great right now but he can play some 3B and DH some. It's purely a service time thing for me.

 

I don't believe that. I believe they aren't sold on him as a 3B and want to give him a chance to get better in the minors.

 

I mean if it is purely service time, Ross Atkins was lying in the interview Hurl posted.

[Terminator]

I don't believe that. I believe they aren't sold on him as a 3B and want to give him a chance to get better in the minors.

 

I mean if it is purely service time, Ross Atkins was lying in the interview Hurl posted.

 

I'm sure his defense needs to develop, there is zero doubt. But it can happen at the big league level. And teams lie about service time all the time. Every time a top prospect is delayed they use the development excuse. No team will ever admit the truth about that. And when I say it's a service time thing for me, I'm talking about what I would do. I would probably keep him down to get the extra year.

[Bobthe4th]

I'm sure his defense needs to develop, there is zero doubt. But it can happen at the big league level. And teams lie about service time all the time. Every time a top prospect is delayed they use the development excuse. No team will ever admit the truth about that.

 

Yeah, and they have to consider everything. Bottom line is if service time didn't exist as a thing, I still don't think he'd be on the big league team right now. But equally, if it wasn't a factor, we'd have more chance seeing him at some point this year.

[Carlos Danger]

Is Vlad tall enough to be a 1b??

[Pendleton]

Is Vlad tall enough to be a 1b??

 

He's listed at 6'1 and there have been guys that size and shorter who have fielded 1B just fine.

[Carlos Danger]

He's listed at 6'1 and there have been guys that size and shorter who have fielded 1B just fine.

 

Ok, didnt realize he was that tall. He looks shorter on TV. Yea, 6’1 should work if he can extend..

[Pendleton]

Ok, didnt realize he was that tall. He looks shorter on TV. Yea, 6’1 should work if he can extend..

 

I would have guessed an even 6'0 before I looked, but now looking at pictures of him next to his dad who was listed at 6'3, I wouldn't say he's more than a couple inches shorter, so 6'1 checks out.

[glory]

If he's still crushing AA at the end of the month, I don't understand the hesitation. The bat might be ready to produce big time at the MLB level. 4 months of everyday PT with 2-3 starts a week at 3B won't be worse for his development than spending the time in a league he's too good for, and it comes with the added benefit of possibly adding wins to the MLB club.

 

If he gets called up this season, he hits free agency before the 2025 season, at age 26. Are they really going to wait until mid-April 2019? If they do that, he hits free agency before 2026, at at 27. They're going let him annihilate the upper minors for over a year, just to get control of his age 26 season instead of his age-19 season, when he might actually make the difference between playoffs or no playoffs in his age-19 season? I'm sorry, but that's a mickey mouse way to run a team - especially given that this team doesn't have to operate that way. If he's Miguel Cabrera, are they going to let him walk via free agency in his mid 20s?

 

The Yankees actually had a need at 2B and still kept Torres down intentionally so they could get an extra year out of him. The Jays don’t have a 3B hole as long as JD is here, and they clearly intend on playing Morales’ fat declining ass everyday because of the money he is owed so it makes no sense to call Vlad up now. We can win the 2nd WC without him, and the 2nd in itself is not much of an accomplishment. I’d rather have the extra year of Vlad when the team might actually be good enough to really contend.

[Boxcar]

I agree with guys like Bob and Gruber. No point in bringing up Vlad, who is crushing the minors, where he'd not only instantly improve the offense in a year where we can contend, but also give JD lots of days at DH to keep him fresh. I think it's better to just leave him to destroy the minors all season long, call him up in September, and then deal with tons of controversy and negative press by openly manipulating his service time before ultimately bringing him up for good after Donaldson and Happ are already gone.

 

I mean, why try to compete this season? Something something service time amirite?

[glory]

I agree with guys like Bob and Gruber. No point in bringing up Vlad, who is crushing the minors, where he'd not only instantly improve the offense in a year where we can contend, but also give JD lots of days at DH to keep him fresh. I think it's better to just leave him to destroy the minors all season long, call him up in September, and then deal with tons of controversy and negative press by openly manipulating his service time before ultimately bringing him up for good after Donaldson and Happ are already gone.

 

I mean, why try to compete this season? Something something service time amirite?

 

How much value is lost if Vlad became a FA after 2024 instead 2025? Or, how much value is gained if he's the DH in 2018 when they could stick a guy like Pearce or Grandy there? Is 19 year old Vlad that much better than those two, and if so, is he so much better that's it's worth losing a year of service time?

 

If the Jays signed him to a ten year contract tomorrow, then call his ass up tomorrow. But if the freakin Yankees are holding their talent back to manipulate service time, then I'd rather not be the "good org" and call him up early. The system is broken and unfair to players, but use it to your advantage.

 

If the Jays were a legit threat to the Yankees or Red Sox right now, then I'd agree with you. BUt the 2nd WC? Damn, release Morales and we could win that s***, without Vlady.

[Boxcar]

How much value is lost if Vlad became a FA after 2024 instead 2025? Or, how much value is gained if he's the DH in 2018 when they could stick a guy like Pearce or Grandy there? Is 19 year old Vlad that much better than those two, and if so, is he so much better that's it's worth losing a year of service time?

 

If the Jays signed him to a ten year contract tomorrow, then call his ass up tomorrow. But if the freakin Yankees are holding their talent back to manipulate service time, then I'd rather not be the "good org" and call him up early. The system is broken and unfair to players, but use it to your advantage.

 

If the Jays were a legit threat to the Yankees or Red Sox right now, then I'd agree with you. BUt the 2nd WC? Damn, release Morales and we could win that s***, without Vlady.

 

We could win it without Donaldson too, but we have a much better chance with him than without him. Btw, we are going to be playing for the second wild card for quite awhile. Maybe we should just leave Vlad down there until he's 25.

[glory]

We could win it without Donaldson too, but we have a much better chance with him than without him. Btw, we are going to be playing for the second wild card for quite awhile. Maybe we should just leave Vlad down there until he's 25.

 

No way we have a shot without Donaldson. He pretty much has to be the 2015-17 version for the rest of this season for the Jays to have a chance. How many wins does 19 year old Vlad add? If I was sure he'd add 3-4 wins, then sure, bring him up. He's a phenom, so he could come in and immediately wreck s***, but not too many 19 year olds have done that. Chances are he'll be developing in the bigs, and while a developing 19 year old Vlad is likely way better than Morales, is it worth the lost value later? That's the main question.

 

We will be competing for the 2nd WC for many years, but hopefully with a much younger team with a lot more upside. No issues with starting Vlad at 3B in 2019 when JD is gone. But now? Seems like a PR move more than a move that makes baseball sense.

 

When great GM's like Cashman, Epstein, etc, are manipulating the system to gain more service, what makes the Jays situation any different?

[Boxcar]

No way we have a shot without Donaldson. He pretty much has to be the 2015-17 version for the rest of this season for the Jays to have a chance. How many wins does 19 year old Vlad add? If I was sure he'd add 3-4 wins, then sure, bring him up. He's a phenom, so he could come in and immediately wreck s***, but not too many 19 year olds have done that. Chances are he'll be developing in the bigs, and while a developing 19 year old Vlad is likely way better than Morales, is it worth the lost value later? That's the main question.

 

We will be competing for the 2nd WC for many years, but hopefully with a much younger team with a lot more upside. No issues with starting Vlad at 3B in 2019 when JD is gone. But now? Seems like a PR move more than a move that makes baseball sense.

 

When great GM's like Cashman, Epstein, etc, are manipulating the system to gain more service, what makes the Jays situation any different?

 

If the Epstein example was about Bryant, that doesn't really apply because he brought him up in a year when the Cubs weren't supposed to contend at around this time. The Jays calling up Vlad now would mirror the Bryant situation fairly well.

 

Cashman just brought up young Gleyber Torres. Last year, Judge broke camp with the team, so he didn't manipulate his service time at all.

 

AA called up Acuna, even while scuffling, and look at the Braves now.

[glory]

If the Epstein example was about Bryant, that doesn't really apply because he brought him up in a year when the Cubs weren't supposed to contend at around this time. The Jays calling up Vlad now would mirror the Bryant situation fairly well.

 

Cashman just brought up young Gleyber Torres. Last year, Judge broke camp with the team, so he didn't manipulate his service time at all.

 

AA called up Acuna, even while scuffling, and look at the Braves now.

 

Judge got a cup of coffee in the bigs in 2016 after the Yankees traded Beltran and right field was open. Since Beltran wouldn't be there in 2017, RF was Judge's. Sanchez was called up around the same time and split between C and DH for the rest of '16, and then the Yanks traded McCann to open up the full time catching spot in 2017. In both cases, the Yankees were in the exact same spot as the Jays are now; a WC contender with no chance at contending for the division in 2016. So they waited until they essentially gave up and then called them up.

 

If Vladdy is killing AA/AAA and the Jays are out of it in August/September, then I can see the logic in bringing him up there since he'd be starting 3B in 2019 in that scenario and he could use some reps in the bigs before a full time gig the following year. But now? Way too soon. Maybe waiting until May 2019 to call him up is too long (even though it would benefit the team), but calling him up now seems like a waste. There are more bodies than they know what to do with already, and a MVP candidate playing the position you want Vlad to play everyday.

[jaysguy44]

I think the goal this season should be to:

 

Trade guys like Happ, Oh, Pearce, Granderson etc. Bring in as many potential guys that you can that are going to help Vlads bluejays

 

See if there is a way to transition Donaldson long term

 

Find out what you have in guys like Alford Jansen Guirrel SRF Borucki

 

So why start Vlads clock. Bring him up next June when Bichette is ready too.

 

Trade Donaldson as well, get back a couple of legit prospects to build around with Vlad and Bo

[WryNGinger]

His hit tool isn't going away...he needs to improve his D on 3rd via more game action...the Jays are not likely to contend this year. Leave him in AA for a while then move him to AAA to finish the season. If the Jays are out after rosters expand bring him up (unless they extend Donaldson) to get some major league 3rd experience. (I really doubt Donaldson is extended...more likely traded tbh) ALL of this is out the window if they are contending of course..

[Boxcar]

I don't understand the people in this thread at all. The gist of what I'm getting is "don't bring up Vlad to improve the team now, when the team is pretty competitive and there's a black hole at DH because we can get an extra year when we may or may not be competitive in 6 years."

 

I really can't wrap my head around it.

[Bobthe4th]

His hit tool isn't going away...he needs to improve his D on 3rd via more game action...the Jays are not likely to contend this year. Leave him in AA for a while then move him to AAA to finish the season. If the Jays are out after rosters expand bring him up (unless they extend Donaldson) to get some major league 3rd experience. (I really doubt Donaldson is extended...more likely traded tbh) ALL of this is out the window if they are contending of course..

 

Yeah it's the typical short term thinking of a casual to call him up now to play DH, ignoring the longer term implications of which position he'll play in the majors.

[BTS]

I don't understand the people in this thread at all. The gist of what I'm getting is "don't bring up Vlad to improve the team now, when the team is pretty competitive and there's a black hole at DH because we can get an extra year when we may or may not be competitive in 6 years."

 

I really can't wrap my head around it.

 

Also, spending a few months playing 3B a couple days a week instead of 5 days a week will be catastrophic for his long term development.

[Boxcar]

Also, spending a few months playing 3B a couple days a week instead of 5 days a week will be catastrophic for his long term development.

 

Or the logic of waiting until we are out of it to start his service clock, and then let him become a super 2.

 

I mean, yeah, f*** it, I don't want to watch playoff baseball this year. BTS, we really need to get out of our short term casual fan mindset. Vlad might literally explode if we aren't 100% sure of his position on the field going forward.

[G-Snarls]

Also, spending a few months playing 3B a couple days a week instead of 5 days a week will be catastrophic for his long term development.

 

Yeah, if you're going to do that you might as well just move him to 1B now and be done with it

[glory]

I don't understand the people in this thread at all. The gist of what I'm getting is "don't bring up Vlad to improve the team now, when the team is pretty competitive and there's a black hole at DH because we can get an extra year when we may or may not be competitive in 6 years."

 

I really can't wrap my head around it.

 

Brian Cashman, one of the smartest GM's in the game, did the EXACT opposite of what you are suggesting the Jays do when he was in a similar position (a WC at best team with ~82-85 win projection). He had a hole at 2B this season, a year which they plan on winning a WS, and still waited a month to call up Torres. ANd he's the GM of the f'n Yankees, who should have no issues paying their talent, while we are the Blue Jays, a team owned by a corporate entity who could decide to slash payroll in a heartbeat if they wanted to.

 

I have no problem following Cashman's lead, and I hope Shapiro doesn't value a 2nd WC berth (one extra game on the road against Severino or Sale) to be worth messing up potentially millions upon millions $ of value down the road.

[Spanky99]

Yeah, if you're going to do that you might as well just move him to 1B now and be done with it

 

He's being facetious, mate.