General 2018 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Spanky99]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=guerri000tay

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/guerrieri-rekindle-promising-career-blue-jays/

 

I am way late to the party on this Taylor Guerrieri signing but does anyone think that this guy has a chance to make our bullpen out of spring?

Be our top SP option in Buffalo??

 

Your answers are right there in the article, absolutely.

[Key22]

Here is an interesting quote from Atkins

 

"Ross Atkins told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi at a Pitch Talks event in Toronto on Thursday. “We do have that number. We have come up with a clear walkaway that we would be willing to commit to him to extend for him to remain a Blue Jay probably for the rest of his career.” http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/atkins-blue-jays-valued-donaldson-ahead-extension-talks/

 

The rest of his career comment implies that the Jays would be willing to go long on JD taking him to around the age of 38-39. A 6-8 year offer and presumably in the $27million+ per year ballpark. I don't know if it's the smart thing but I do know that JD's don't grow on trees.

 

Is Atkins blowing smoke - they have very little in salary commitments after 2019.

[Krylian]

Here is an interesting quote from Atkins

 

"Ross Atkins told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi at a Pitch Talks event in Toronto on Thursday. “We do have that number. We have come up with a clear walkaway that we would be willing to commit to him to extend for him to remain a Blue Jay probably for the rest of his career.” http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/atkins-blue-jays-valued-donaldson-ahead-extension-talks/

 

The rest of his career comment implies that the Jays would be willing to go long on JD taking him to around the age of 38-39. A 6-8 year offer and presumably in the $27million+ per year ballpark. I don't know if it's the smart thing but I do know that JD's don't grow on trees.

 

Is Atkins blowing smoke - they have very little in salary commitments after 2019.

 

Yes and no.

 

He's not blowing smoke because I'm sure that the Jays do have a term and dollar figure that they'd like to sign JD for. He is blowing smoke because I'm sure it's not anywhere near what JD likely would get on the open market.

[Brownie19]

Yes and no.

 

He's not blowing smoke because I'm sure that the Jays do have a term and dollar figure that they'd like to sign JD for. He is blowing smoke because I'm sure it's not anywhere near what JD likely would get on the open market.

 

You're fooling yourself if you think you have ANY idea what the open market value for JD will be.

[jaysfan2014]

You're fooling yourself if you think you have ANY idea what the open market value for JD will be.

 

While he will get paid well (likely $25-30M/year), the years might be lower than Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.. likely 3-5 years instead of 7-8, especially watching the current free agent market, where teams are trying to avoid handing ridiculous deals close to a decade long.. especially watching several multi-years deals become albatrosses.

[devo]

Here is an interesting quote from Atkins

 

"Ross Atkins told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi at a Pitch Talks event in Toronto on Thursday. “We do have that number. We have come up with a clear walkaway that we would be willing to commit to him to extend for him to remain a Blue Jay probably for the rest of his career.” http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/atkins-blue-jays-valued-donaldson-ahead-extension-talks/

 

The rest of his career comment implies that the Jays would be willing to go long on JD taking him to around the age of 38-39. A 6-8 year offer and presumably in the $27million+ per year ballpark. I don't know if it's the smart thing but I do know that JD's don't grow on trees.

 

Is Atkins blowing smoke - they have very little in salary commitments after 2019.

 

I interpret this as they are willing to commit to a longer term deal but only if JD is willing to accept a lower AAV. Something like 5-6 years with a total commitment of $105-125 million. Seems to me that JD is looking for a lot more money than this and will test the open market next year.

[Krylian]

You're fooling yourself if you think you have ANY idea what the open market value for JD will be.

 

And you're fooling yourself if you think there's any way JD stays without taking a hometown discount.

[Terminator]

JD has got to be looking at the way FA is going right now and wondering if he wouldn't be better off signing an extension, even if it has a big hometown discount. Something like 5 for 125. Todd Frazier has been a 2.5 to 5 WAR player for the past 6 seasons and he got a piddly 2 year deal.

[Abomination]

JD has got to be looking at the way FA is going right now and wondering if he wouldn't be better off signing an extension, even if it has a big hometown discount. Something like 5 for 125. Todd Frazier has been a 2.5 to 5 WAR player for the past 6 seasons and he got a piddly 2 year deal.

 

He's also going to be in a stacked FA pool next year (and probably won't be plan A for the bigger teams looking to spend), and who knows if labor tensions keep rising if there could be a strike that produces a result less favorable to aging stars. Getting a deal done this offseason may be in his best interests.

[Terminator]

He's also going to be in a stacked FA pool next year (and probably won't be plan A for the bigger teams looking to spend), and who knows if labor tensions keep rising if there could be a strike that produces a result less favorable to aging stars. Getting a deal done this offseason may be in his best interests.

 

I think the Jays might approach his side during ST, at least that's the vibe I'm getting. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

[Krylian]

JD has got to be looking at the way FA is going right now and wondering if he wouldn't be better off signing an extension, even if it has a big hometown discount. Something like 5 for 125. Todd Frazier has been a 2.5 to 5 WAR player for the past 6 seasons and he got a piddly 2 year deal.

 

It's possible. Although this has been a s*** FA offseason (quality wise). I have every faith that GMs will blow their wads again next offseason.

[Brownie19]

And you're fooling yourself if you think there's any way JD stays without taking a hometown discount.

 

What are you basing this on? The only case we can draw from so far with the Shatkins regime is EE - and this FO offered EE more than Cleveland gave him.

[Spanky99]

I think the Jays might approach his side during ST, at least that's the vibe I'm getting. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

 

They already have...

 

[Krylian]

What are you basing this on? The only case we can draw from so far with the Shatkins regime is EE - and this FO offered EE more than Cleveland gave him.

 

JD wants to get paid. Here's saying exactly what you expect... 'I'd love to stay here long term', but when the chips are down, he's gonna go to a big market with deep pockets. And I'm not saying the Jays should get into a bidding war with anyone. I'm just saying he's gonna look for a big payday and that isn't going to be here. We'll see in less than a year if I'm right or wrong.

 

... Assuming he isn't dealt n July when the Jays are out of it.

[Brownie19]

JD wants to get paid. Here's saying exactly what you expect... 'I'd love to stay here long term', but when the chips are down, he's gonna go to a big market with deep pockets. And I'm not saying the Jays should get into a bidding war with anyone. I'm just saying he's gonna look for a big payday and that isn't going to be here. We'll see in less than a year if I'm right or wrong.

 

... Assuming he isn't dealt n July when the Jays are out of it.

 

You very well could be right - but that wouldn't justify you're baseless assumptions.

[saskjayfan]

You very well could be right - but that wouldn't justify you're baseless assumptions.

 

The market has changed. JD is going to be 33 in his first year of free agency. The market has changed and teams aren't paying older players. I don't think he's going to get the insane offers. Teams just aren't paying older players anymore.

[AdamGreenwood]

With Machado, Harper and Kershaw becoming free agents next year, and with the dismal state of the market this year, players would be wise to re-sign with their current teams for reasonable amounts rather than test the free market. Maybe something like 5/125 could land JD?

[Jonn]

JD wants to get paid. Here's saying exactly what you expect... 'I'd love to stay here long term', but when the chips are down, he's gonna go to a big market with deep pockets. And I'm not saying the Jays should get into a bidding war with anyone. I'm just saying he's gonna look for a big payday and that isn't going to be here. We'll see in less than a year if I'm right or wrong.

 

... Assuming he isn't dealt n July when the Jays are out of it.

 

If the last 2 off-seasons taught us anything its that there won't be teams lining up to give a 33-year old a 5 year 150M contract that he is likely to command. Josh Donaldson is a great player but age is not on his side. If hes been offered a significant offer by the Blue Jays he should be probably sign that. Free agent class is so star studded. I don't think the losers of Manny Machado/Bryce Harper is going to turn around a try to sign Donaldson to a monster contract.

[AledmysDiaz]

Shapiro and Atkins are respectful

 

They would not give Donaldson's agent a number that was extreme lowballing. I would imagine that number is in the 5/100 plus options range or 5/115.

 

Atkins said that such a contract would ensure Donaldson retires a Bluejays and I don't think the AAV would be less than what he is making now.

 

5/115 with Options is where the Jays sit ( pure guess )

[TheHurl]

You are all f***ed in the head. JD Martinez has received a 5 year $125M offer and he isn't even a top 60 player over the past 3 years. How bad of a season would Donaldson have to have to be considering accepting something in that range? He's projected to have another 6 win season this year. Who was the last free agent who was projected for a 5 win season? David Price and he got paid...last hitter? Heyward might have been close but I figure it was around 4.5. I assume it's Cano in 2013, who was 31 and has put up 16.4 WAR in the 4 seasons since (and is projected over 3 in his age 36 season.

[Terminator]

You are all f***ed in the head. JD Martinez has received a 5 year $125M offer and he isn't even a top 60 player over the past 3 years. How bad of a season would Donaldson have to have to be considering accepting something in that range? He's projected to have another 6 win season this year. Who was the last free agent who was projected for a 5 win season? David Price and he got paid...last hitter? Heyward might have been close but I figure it was around 4.5. I assume it's Cano in 2013, who was 31 and has put up 16.4 WAR in the 4 seasons since (and is projected over 3 in his age 36 season.

 

Well JD Martinez is 30, Donaldson will be 33. The 5 for 125 number I threw out is a pipe dream which involves some realistic thinking on what the front office might offer combined with some really optimistic thinking on what Donaldson would accept. Justin Turner was an older 3B who signed for about half of what he was worth, if Donaldson truly wants to stay in TO it's not completely f***ed in the head thinking. Maybe 6 for 180?

[Spanky99]

Well JD Martinez is 30, Donaldson will be 33. The 5 for 125 number I threw out is a pipe dream which involves some realistic thinking on what the front office might offer combined with some really optimistic thinking on what Donaldson would accept. Justin Turner was an older 3B who signed for about half of what he was worth, if Donaldson truly wants to stay in TO it's not completely f***ed in the head thinking. Maybe 6 for 180?

 

That number is more realistic.

[Jimcanuck]

Well JD Martinez is 30, Donaldson will be 33. The 5 for 125 number I threw out is a pipe dream which involves some realistic thinking on what the front office might offer combined with some really optimistic thinking on what Donaldson would accept. Justin Turner was an older 3B who signed for about half of what he was worth, if Donaldson truly wants to stay in TO it's not completely f***ed in the head thinking. Maybe 6 for 180?

 

30 AAV yes but the 6th year, I can't see Shatkins buying age 39 JD

[Bobthe4th]

6/180 could look very bad in as little as 2 years. IMO JD needs to have an injury free year to try to get anywhere near a six year commitment from us when for at least the near future we're not going to be one of the main contenders.

 

If last year was the beginning of his body starting to break down injury wise (separate from any natural skills age based regression) we might be committing to a player who regularly misses half a season.

[Bobthe4th]

Of course he could be fully fit this year, put up 8 WAR and be worth a monster contract. As a professional sportsman he'll be backing himself to do that, so he probably won't sign an early extension now.

 

If we were closer to the peak of our cycle of competitiveness I'd be less concerned with a 6 year commitment, as you have to overpay to secure elite talent in free agency.

[Spanky99]

6/180 could look very bad in as little as 2 years. IMO JD needs to have an injury free year to try to get anywhere near a six year commitment from us when for at least the near future we're not going to be one of the main contenders.

 

If last year was the beginning of his body starting to break down injury wise (separate from any natural skills age based regression) we might be committing to a player who regularly misses half a season.

 

C'mon, man. You actually believe that? NVM...

[Bobthe4th]

C'mon, man. You actually believe that?

 

Obviously that's a worse case scenario (see my subsequent post!). But yeah I don't think we should be giving $30m a year for 6 years to a player who will be 33 when the extension kicks in, when his most recent (age 31) season was marred by injuries.

 

IMO it's too big a risk considering we're at least 1 or 2 years away from competing.

[Spanky99]

Obviously that's a worse case scenario (see my subsequent post!). But yeah I don't think we should be giving $30m a year for 6 years to a player who will be 33 when the extension kicks in, when his most recent (age 31) season was marred by injuries.

 

IMO it's too big a risk considering we're at least 1 or 2 ears away from competing.

 

This is all conjecture, it doesn't really matter, all things being equal. I saw your follow up... hence the never mind, edit. He's getting 30 AAV, just a matter of how long is the term.

[saskjayfan]

30 AAV yes but the 6th year, I can't see Shatkins buying age 39 JD

 

They wouldn't have to because age 38 would be the 6th year. I think 5 140 is a fair offer. 30 for 3 years, 2 years at 25 with a team option on the 6th at 20 1 mil buyout.

Edited February 7, 2018 by saskjayfan

[Jimcanuck]

They wouldn't have to because age 38 would be the 6th year. I think 5 140 is a fair offer. 30 for 3 years, 25 for 2 years at 25 with a team option on the 6th at 20 1 mil buyout.

 

No he is already signed for 2018. 2019 would be the 1st year of an extension.

 

edit - nvm, used my fingers to count this time, you are right