The Cardinals want Josh

[jaysblue]

Assuming you mean 4/100 plus his next year of Arb. Even then you're going to have to give him more per year to appease the union.

 

I would do 5/150M which includes his next year of Arb.

[John_Havok]

I really hesitate to resign Donaldson when the goal to try and setup the team for a constand run of contention in the future, and you've got 2 potential blue chippers coming along within 2 seasons, and adding potentially 2 more to that as a trade return from a Donaldson move just makes all kinds of sense. Multiple young guys who come up together as stars and basically take over the team, ala the Cubs.

 

His value is at it's peak, is only going to go down unless he's the next Beltre, and if he's signed he will represent 1 of 3 mid 30s players with monster deals on the team, which is exactly what doomed every other team like that in recent memory before they fell off the rails and ended up having to go through multi-year bottom dwelling suckage, with the exception of Boston and NY who had the foresight to get out before the crash, but they also have financial freedoms the Jays don't have (rightly or wrongly, thats just how it is).

 

Thing is... I also get the argument to retain him... he's a frigging beast when he's on the field and the fact that he's there helps Rogers sell the team to all the casuals, which is who they need to convince to watch them on TV and buy tickets.

 

It's a delicate balancing act that Shatkins has to navigate this upcoming offseason.

[glory]

They are going to have to pay JD enough for him not to want to test free agency. It will have to be an overpay. I don't know what an overpay would look like, depends how much Josh thinks he can get, and he seems like the type who wants to get as much as he can (rightfully so). I don't see them agreeing to a number before the 2018 season.

[jaysblue]

They are going to have to pay JD enough for him not to want to test free agency. It will have to be an overpay. I don't know what an overpay would look like, depends how much Josh thinks he can get, and he seems like the type who wants to get as much as he can (rightfully so). I don't see them agreeing to a number before the 2018 season.

 

I'm sure you could get him at 30M per season, though it just depends on how many years he thinks he could get on free agency. That likely is the deciding factor.

[Abomination]

They are going to have to pay JD enough for him not to want to test free agency. It will have to be an overpay. I don't know what an overpay would look like, depends how much Josh thinks he can get, and he seems like the type who wants to get as much as he can (rightfully so). I don't see them agreeing to a number before the 2018 season.

 

Maybe not, but if he wasn't looking for a longer deal now, his timing to go to the front office to talk about it doesn't make much sense.

[Slade]

4 years/$120M would likely get it done. Probably would have to go with a higher AAV on a shorter term deal.

 

I would do that with an option for a 5th year.

[jaysblue]

I really hesitate to resign Donaldson when the goal to try and setup the team for a constand run of contention in the future, and you've got 2 potential blue chippers coming along within 2 seasons, and adding potentially 2 more to that as a trade return from a Donaldson move just makes all kinds of sense. Multiple young guys who come up together as stars and basically take over the team, ala the Cubs.

 

His value is at it's peak, is only going to go down unless he's the next Beltre, and if he's signed he will represent 1 of 3 mid 30s players with monster deals on the team, which is exactly what doomed every other team like that in recent memory before they fell off the rails and ended up having to go through multi-year bottom dwelling suckage, with the exception of Boston and NY who had the foresight to get out before the crash, but they also have financial freedoms the Jays don't have (rightly or wrongly, thats just how it is).

 

Thing is... I also get the argument to retain him... he's a frigging beast when he's on the field and the fact that he's there helps Rogers sell the team to all the casuals, which is who they need to convince to watch them on TV and buy tickets.

 

It's a delicate balancing act that Shatkins has to navigate this upcoming offseason.

 

Yeah tough debate on what to do with JD. You hope he can follow the career path of what Beltre has done, then he's worth every penny of that contract. If injuries and aging becomes an issue, then he might follow the career path of Scott Rolen.

[jaysblue]

I would do that with an option for a 5th year.

 

Probably would have to do the 5/$150M with a club option for a 6th to get a deal done before free agency.

[glory]

Maybe not, but if he wasn't looking for a longer deal now, his timing to go to the front office to talk about it doesn't make much sense.

 

I didn't see the interview, but wasn't he asked about trade rumors or his future with the team? Saying he wants to stay and that he went to management to express that makes him look good and takes the pressure off him as far as having to answer that question every week during the winter.

 

I think we will hear this talk all winter but it will lead no where and JD will start at 3B in 2018 with no extension.

[JonMc]

Probably would have to do the 5/$150M with a club option for a 6th to get a deal done before free agency.

Really? Unless he's really just playing the market and Toronto doesn't really mean that much...that would be a step too far and it wouldn't take that imo.

[george09]

Shatkins won't be trading JD unless Reyes is in the deal. No Reyes no Donaldson, probably Reyes+

[JoeCarter]

Some unrealistic expectations of what 1 yr of JD will bring.

 

This. And why it made a ton of good sense to trade him at this year's deadline. We could have netted a King's ransom making him available to a contender for 2 playoff pushes rather than just 1.

 

My read on today's story about him approaching the front office whispering sweet nothings about his desire to stay with the Jays: he / his agent understand full well that teams are only getting smarter about evaluating the risks associated with signing players in their 30s to long-term deals. Beltre is a freak, and the outlier of all outliers. Recent history is awash with nothing but cautionary tales: Miggy, Victor Martinez, Pujols, Ellsbury, Chris Davis, Shields (and Price contract sure to look very gross very fast). Backing up the truck for anyone over 30 for 4+ years is just dumb, and when it goes South, it just buries you. JD sees the writing on the wall, and I think it's shrewd to play the Mr. Nice Guy card now: I'm sure he likes Toronto just fine and wouldn't say those things if he weren't comfortable finishing his career here...but I think he also realizes that going to FA may be leaving $20M - $40M on the table. A 31-year old nice hometown boy might just wrangle himself $160M/5...whereas the market in the 2018 offseason for a 3rd baseman who'll be 33 come Opening Day 2019 may not be all that robust, especially if he suffers any kind of dropoff or injury in 2018. What's his projected haul if he goes the FA route: $20M arbitration in 2018 and...what, $120M/4 at the upper end? There's no scenario where he doesn't put an extra $20M+ in his pocket by extending with the Jays now.

[Abomination]

This. And why it made a ton of good sense to trade him at this year's deadline. We could have netted a King's ransom making him available to a contender for 2 playoff pushes rather than just 1.

 

My read on today's story about him approaching the front office whispering sweet nothings about his desire to stay with the Jays: he / his agent understand full well that teams are only getting smarter about evaluating the risks associated with signing players in their 30s to long-term deals. Beltre is a freak, and the outlier of all outliers. Recent history is awash with nothing but cautionary tales: Miggy, Victor Martinez, Pujols, Ellsbury, Chris Davis, Shields (and Price contract sure to look very gross very fast). Backing up the truck for anyone over 30 for 4+ years is just dumb, and when it goes South, it just buries you. JD sees the writing on the wall, and I think it's shrewd to play the Mr. Nice Guy card now: I'm sure he likes Toronto just fine and wouldn't say those things if he weren't comfortable finishing his career here...but I think he also realizes that going to FA may be leaving $20M - $40M on the table. A 31-year old nice hometown boy might just wrangle himself $160M/5...whereas the market in the 2018 offseason for a 3rd baseman who'll be 33 come Opening Day 2019 may not be all that robust, especially if he suffers any kind of dropoff or injury in 2018. What's his projected haul if he goes the FA route: $20M arbitration in 2018 and...what, $120M/4 at the upper end? There's no scenario where he doesn't put an extra $20M+ in his pocket by extending with the Jays now.

 

Aside from protecting himself against injury, the biggest advantage for Donaldson in signing early is not having to fight with other elite guys in that stupidly good FA class next year.

[Laika]

There's no scenario where he doesn't put an extra $20M+ in his pocket by extending with the Jays now.

 

No scenario?

 

So you think Toronto's FO is stupid enough to pay a $20M tariff to keep him?

[gruber92]

A max four year extension starting next year should be the most management should offer. The offer could be sprinkled a bit to 4/128 and see what happens.

[Spanky99]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/donaldson-wants-blue-jays-long-time/

[Governator]

Put down the koolaid guys, Josh will be shooting for a Cabrera contract...

[Krylian]

I would do 5/150M which includes his next year of Arb.

 

I remember there were actually people who were OK with giving that to Bautista when he asked for it before 2016. I'm not saying that Jose and Josh are the same player or the situation is the same, but rather that once you're in your 30's things can go off the rails pretty damn fast. That's a huge contract for someone who's not getting younger. I'd move him if a team was willing to ante up.

[polar bear]

I remember there were actually people who were OK with giving that to Bautista when he asked for it before 2016. I'm not saying that Jose and Josh are the same player or the situation is the same, but rather that once you're in your 30's things can go off the rails pretty damn fast. That's a huge contract for someone who's not getting younger. I'd move him if a team was willing to ante up.

 

As much as we all love Josh,the best thing for the club would be for to cash in while he is a hot commodity,

and let's not forget about his recurring injuries.

[Captain Adama]

As much as we all love Josh,the best thing for the club would be for to cash in while he is a hot commodity,

and let's not forget about his recurring injuries.

 

Recurring injuries? You mean that this year is the first time he actually missed significant playing time due to injuries?

[Spanky99]

As much as we all love Josh,the best thing for the club would be for to cash in while he is a hot commodity,

and let's not forget about his recurring injuries.

 

Recurring injuries, what this season?

[burlingtonbandit]

Recurring injuries? You mean that this year is the first time he actually missed significant playing time due to injuries?

 

To be fair he had a pretty significant hip injury last year. He's played through a few injuries the last couple years which probably is likely going to take its toll in the later years.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

I wonder if a St. Louis, if this rumour is true, could be given a 48-hour window with JD to negotiate a contract extension before a trade. Like the Jays did with the Mets and Dickey. So if this sort of thing is possible, the Jays and St. Louis would need to agree on all the other pieces (and this would certainly up the quality of players the Jays get back) and the Jays FO would have to understand that this might burn their bridges with JD.

[Captain Adama]

To be fair he had a pretty significant hip injury last year. He's played through a few injuries the last couple years which probably is likely going to take its toll in the later years.

 

Many players play through injuries during the year, Trout, Ortiz and Choo are big ones that I can remember. Furthermore, the only time IIRC that Donaldson played thru an injury was the end of last year. Which also was unrelated to the injury he had this year. So I dunno, his track record injury risk is pretty good.

[John_Havok]

Many players play through injuries during the year, Trout, Ortiz and Choose are big ones that I can remember. Furthermore, the only time IIRC that Donaldson played thru an injury was the end of last year. Which also was unrelated to the injury he had this year. So I dunno, his track record injury risk is pretty good.

 

True, but the injury risk goes up with age whether you're healthy while younger or not. That's true for everyone let alone athletes

[JoeCarter]

Put down the koolaid guys, Josh will be shooting for a Cabrera contract...

 

So will Ryan Goins. Doesn't mean he'll get it.

[Governator]

So will Ryan Goins. Doesn't mean he'll get it.

 

A former MVP looking at past former MVP contracts who signed at a similar age...or we can just throw Ryan Goins name in to this thread for no reason.

[P2F]

So will Ryan Goins. Doesn't mean he'll get it.

 

Edited October 3, 2017 by P2F

[Abomination]

 

Damn you, now I gotta scrub my YouTube history.

[Spanky99]

 

f*** off... this made me laugh so hard, and i don't know why.