Preparing for 2018

[Krylian]

Why do people bash players that want to test FA, its their right lol. Doesn't really matter what they ask for, a team is going to pay what they are willing to pay.

 

No one said he's not allowed to or shouldn't do that. Saying that he's the type of player/person that will. High profile. High performer. Extremely confident with large ego. That's not bashing.

[Krylian]

I think that's fair. I mean a lot of us sacrifice money in our everyday lives - even when that money would actually make a difference. The you'll have a hard time convincing me there's a significant difference between $150M and $180M. I mean that might reduce the # of family members you can payroll for the rest of their lives, but in the players world, it can't matter much....certainly nowhere near as much as it would for one of us to take a $10K cut to live closer to home or something.

 

I feel that to them it matters. Not in the actual money but in terms of what it represents...oh. You want to pay me 180? You must think a lot more of me than the 150 team does. I'll go to where I feel more wanted. 180 makes me feel that.

[Krylian]

He's basically Bautista 2.0. Right down to the chip on his shoulder from being given up on early in his career.

 

That's great fuel for making him great, like Bautista was...but ya, he'll want every penny.

[Spanky99]

He's basically Bautista 2.0. Right down to the chip on his shoulder from being given up on early in his career.

 

Oakland never gave up on him, it just took him later to get to the show because they took him off catcher, and to learn to play 3rd base.

[Ace]

I'd personally like us to sign buy low bounce back candidates and try to stay competitive. You don't need to tank in baseball to build for the future. Put resources into scouting and development to build the farm.

 

That being said, if we get offered a great haul of prospects for Donaldson (if he doesn't re-sign), Happ, or Smoak, I think we have to pull the trigger or at least strongly consider it.

[John_Havok]

I'd personally like us to sign buy low bounce back candidates and try to stay competitive. You don't need to tank in baseball to build for the future. Put resources into scouting and development to build the farm.

 

That being said, if we get offered a great haul of prospects for Donaldson (if he doesn't re-sign), Happ, or Smoak, I think we have to pull the trigger or at least strongly consider it.

 

Pretty sure he'll be a deadline trade next year from the way Shatkins talks about him. Very doubtful they trade him in the offseason unless some team backs up the prospect truck, which is in itself, very doubtful

[Key22]

The way the Jay's management speaks they seem to be thinking 2018 is possible for contention which means no Donaldson trade.

 

The worst thing this team can do is to let him walk for nothing. So if they think we're in contention for 2018 they should also think they will be in contention for 2019-20-21-22 etc.

 

So let's assume they will look to sign JD - are there any other contracts vs age comparisons that can be made? Some have noted that positional players don't do all that well compared to the likes of a Kershaw. Would a $150m/6 years be able to get it done - way too high for the Jays to stomach or too low for market value?

 

And then if you are going to make this kind of commitment it probably can't be done in isolation - you should probably then try to resign Justin Smoak to a 4-6 year $20million offer per year as well in order to keep a rather potent 3(Donaldson)-4(Smoak)-5(Morales) in the heart of the order.

 

But then if you do that - you probably have to go further - the Jays would likely have to find someone to lead off with Travis/Pearce/Martin in the number 2 hole while the others bat 6-7. Pillar bats 9th. Tulo (or Barney or FA like Cozart) 8th.

 

The money they were going to put to Bautista ($20m) could be used for Smoak/Donaldson. The money is there.

[Jimcanuck]

The way the Jay's management speaks they seem to be thinking 2018 is possible for contention which means no Donaldson trade.

 

The worst thing this team can do is to let him walk for nothing. So if they think we're in contention for 2018 they should also think they will be in contention for 2019-20-21-22 etc.

 

So let's assume they will look to sign JD - are there any other contracts vs age comparisons that can be made? Some have noted that positional players don't do all that well compared to the likes of a Kershaw. Would a $150m/6 years be able to get it done - way too high for the Jays to stomach or too low for market value?

 

And then if you are going to make this kind of commitment it probably can't be done in isolation - you should probably then try to resign Justin Smoak to a 4-6 year $20million offer per year as well in order to keep a rather potent 3(Donaldson)-4(Smoak)-5(Morales) in the heart of the order.

 

But then if you do that - you probably have to go further - the Jays would likely have to find someone to lead off with Travis/Pearce/Martin in the number 2 hole while the others bat 6-7. Pillar bats 9th. Tulo (or Barney or FA like Cozart) 8th.

 

The money they were going to put to Bautista ($20m) could be used for Smoak/Donaldson. The money is there.

 

Holy s***, 4-6 years @ $20M a year for Smoak? No way. He likely regresses in 2018 and beyond.

 

If you make these signings, what about Osuna, Stroman, Sanchez, who will soon be in line for big raises? You are quickly running out of cash to field a team without holes.

 

The Tulo and Martin albatrosses need to be jettisoned, and several cost controlled players are needed along with some high priced veterans to compete with the Dodgers, Cubs, Astros, Yankees of the world. And in a few years, the White Sox.

 

If Rogers can't stomach a scorched earth (quicker) rebuild, a slower rebuild will have to happen, and Jays need to be targetting the expiration of the Martin and Tulo contracts to be true contenders again.

[glory]

If they don't rebuild, and it looks like they won't, then just keep doing what they have been doing the last two years. Small/short free agent signings to plug some holes on the roster. If they are in the race next July then trade some meaningless prospects for immediate help (like they did in '16) or if they are out of it, then sell at the deadline again like they did this year.

 

Extending Donaldson for anything beyond 4 years would be foolish, and he's not going to settle for anything when all he has to do is wait a year and be on the open market. It's not going to happen. That's why trading him now is the best solution, but I guess backdooring into the WC next year is a possibility given how bad the AL is beyond the top 4 teams, so they'll try for that first.

[Maine Jays]

A Pearce for Profar might make sense for both sides. Texas has a couple of LH bats for DH/1B with Gallo and Guzman (if he's ready). Pearce would allow them to ease Guzman in slowly or sit Gallo if there's a tough lefty pitching. Given the made of glass MI we have, the more capable reserves we can acquire, the better.

[jaysblue]

A Pearce for Profar might make sense for both sides. Texas has a couple of LH bats for DH/1B with Gallo and Guzman (if he's ready). Pearce would allow them to ease Guzman in slowly or sit Gallo if there's a tough lefty pitching. Given the made of glass MI we have, the more capable reserves we can acquire, the better.

 

Not sure the Rangers would do that.

 

Profar though does make sense as a super utility guy who you could give 300-400 AB's to between 2B/SS/3B and OF. In case Travis & Tulo miss significant time again next season, I'd rather give Profar AB's over Goins or Barney. At least with Profar there is some unrealized potential. Might be the next Tim Beckham with a change of scenery.

[fatcowxlive]

A lot of this will hinge on Donaldson. I'd like to see them extend him but my guess is that they don't.

 

They offered the same contract Edwin signed with Cleveland early in the offseason with the intention of retaining him. They also negotiated and signed Bautista after he rejected his QO forgoing a possible draft pick. I think this FO will actually try to retain star players more than AA's regime

[Dick_Pole]

Meh. Lots of panicked people here again. Shapiro and Atkins are merely trying to keep up the appearance of contention in order to keep the Jays' brand momentum and attendance strong until the time when the team is a perennial contender instead of a marginal one.

 

I trust the FO to make the right decisions because that has been what they have done so far since taking over nearly two years ago. If they think the win in franchise value from holding onto Donaldson and having a shot at the wild card next year is worth more than the prospects in return by trading him, then I trust them that this is the right overall move.

 

People like Jimbo who have a burn it all down mindset can't comprehend that a team can remain competitive and build for the future at the same time if it has people who are smart enough to do the job. The reason why the Jays didn't make the playoffs for 20+ years wasn't because the team wasn't willing to go the Nationals route. It was because it had the clown show of Ash, Ricciardi, Godfrey and Beeston leading it to the abyss.

[Maahfaace]

The way the Jay's management speaks they seem to be thinking 2018 is possible for contention which means no Donaldson trade.

 

The worst thing this team can do is to let him walk for nothing. So if they think we're in contention for 2018 they should also think they will be in contention for 2019-20-21-22 etc.

 

So let's assume they will look to sign JD - are there any other contracts vs age comparisons that can be made? Some have noted that positional players don't do all that well compared to the likes of a Kershaw. Would a $150m/6 years be able to get it done - way too high for the Jays to stomach or too low for market value?

 

And then if you are going to make this kind of commitment it probably can't be done in isolation - you should probably then try to resign Justin Smoak to a 4-6 year $20million offer per year as well in order to keep a rather potent 3(Donaldson)-4(Smoak)-5(Morales) in the heart of the order.

 

But then if you do that - you probably have to go further - the Jays would likely have to find someone to lead off with Travis/Pearce/Martin in the number 2 hole while the others bat 6-7. Pillar bats 9th. Tulo (or Barney or FA like Cozart) 8th.

 

The money they were going to put to Bautista ($20m) could be used for Smoak/Donaldson. The money is there.

 

Lol at that Smoak deal. Smoak has a very friendly team option in 2019 somewhere around 5-6 million if I recall correctly. Jays won't even consider any kind of contract for him until after next season and it won't be anything near what you suggested.

[Brownie19]

Lol at that Smoak deal. Smoak has a very friendly team option in 2019 somewhere around 5-6 million if I recall correctly. Jays won't even consider any kind of contract for him until after next season and it won't be anything near what you suggested.

 

It's like your making fun of the handicapped kid who can't do long division man. Not cool.

[Jimcanuck]

People like Jimbo who have a burn it all down mindset can't comprehend that a team can remain competitive and build for the future at the same time if it has people who are smart enough to do the job.

 

I've never advocated for a firesale. Move JD, yes, and any other player over 30, if you can get a reasonable return in youth.

[G-Snarls]

Lol at that Smoak deal. Smoak has a very friendly team option in 2019 somewhere around 5-6 million if I recall correctly. Jays won't even consider any kind of contract for him until after next season and it won't be anything near what you suggested.

 

I just looked it up

 

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/justin-smoak-6967/

 

4.125M next year

 

The 2019 option can be anywhere from 6 to 8M depending on how many plate appearances he gets between now and then. The buyout is super cheap 250k

 

Obviously we're all loving that deal in hindsight LOL. No way you gamble on a further extension now. He could easily regress next year.

[Key22]

Yes I didn't see that we had an option on Smoak for 2019 - so obviously we don't need to look to extend him.

 

Jays seem to be looking to go for it in 2018 with the Estrada signing or as desperation to eat some innings.

 

With them spending money it does appear they will go for it. My only concern there is losing JD for nothing. He should be able to NET the jays at least 1 or 2 top 50 prospects in the game and another 1-2 in the 51-150 range. You wait to the deadline - you get middling players. Or you back the truck up and let the money bags fall at his feet. Stroman, Happ, Estrada, Sanchez does look pretty good when healthy.

 

Could the Jays afford to sign an Ace, maybe a Cozart at shortstop/2B and one upper tier OF? Assuming better health next year they could be in contention.

[Abomination]

Yes I didn't see that we had an option on Smoak for 2019 - so obviously we don't need to look to extend him.

 

Jays seem to be looking to go for it in 2018 with the Estrada signing or as desperation to eat some innings.

 

With them spending money it does appear they will go for it. My only concern there is losing JD for nothing. He should be able to NET the jays at least 1 or 2 top 50 prospects in the game and another 1-2 in the 51-150 range. You wait to the deadline - you get middling players. Or you back the truck up and let the money bags fall at his feet. Stroman, Happ, Estrada, Sanchez does look pretty good when healthy.

 

Could the Jays afford to sign an Ace, maybe a Cozart at shortstop/2B and one upper tier OF? Assuming better health next year they could be in contention.

 

Outside of Darvish (and maybe Otani), next year doesn't have a whole lot in the Ace department. There ARE a lot of back end guys that are interesting though. Aside from Cozart, there isn't much at the SS/2B area either (and you'd be buying high big time on Cozart, who will probably regress back down towards a league average bat).

 

Zobrist would be a guy I could see possibly being available, and would probably be a nice fit splitting time at 2B and LF. Joc Pederson is another guy who I could see possibly being available. The Dodgers will likely have Taylor, Puig, Bellinger out there next year, with Verdugo waiting in the wings.

[Kelly Gruber]

Outside of Darvish (and maybe Otani), next year doesn't have a whole lot in the Ace department. There ARE a lot of back end guys that are interesting though. Aside from Cozart, there isn't much at the SS/2B area either (and you'd be buying high big time on Cozart, who will probably regress back down towards a league average bat).

 

Zobrist would be a guy I could see possibly being available, and would probably be a nice fit splitting time at 2B and LF. Joc Pederson is another guy who I could see possibly being available. The Dodgers will likely have Taylor, Puig, Bellinger out there next year, with Verdugo waiting in the wings.

 

 

Although Otani is a high-risk signing, the risk is minimized slightly in the fact that the odds of him being a bust as both a pitcher and a hitter are lower than if he was only one or the other.

 

If I was GM I would put my resources towards the best combo of talent/value among the available starters. I think they have enough options in-house to fill the void(s) in the corner outfield spots. By default one of them will have a better year than Bautista did when you factor in defence and baserunning. Pearce gives some insurance if the group of Hernandez, Alford, Pompey, Smith, etc struggle at points in the year. Maybe there is a low cost signing to add to that group as well depending on budget.

[TheHurl]

Otani gets to pick his location. He's not coming to Toronto.

[AdamGreenwood]

Although Otani is a high-risk signing, the risk is minimized slightly in the fact that the odds of him being a bust as both a pitcher and a hitter are lower than if he was only one or the other.

 

If I was GM I would put my resources towards the best combo of talent/value among the available starters. I think they have enough options in-house to fill the void(s) in the corner outfield spots. By default one of them will have a better year than Bautista did when you factor in defence and baserunning. Pearce gives some insurance if the group of Hernandez, Alford, Pompey, Smith, etc struggle at points in the year. Maybe there is a low cost signing to add to that group as well depending on budget.

 

The Cardinals have an absurd amount of outfielders. I'm sure they'd trade some guys away cheap.

They've been showcasing Jose Martinez the last couple months, probably to trade him in the offseason.

 

He's been good for 1.7 WAR in roughly 270 AB. Could be a solid LF/1B for us, that we could acquire cheaply.

[Ray]

What's everyone thoughts on somehow filling in Carlos Santana in our lineup? I know he's primarily a 1B, but he's been getting reps in the OF this season and I think he could play alright in a corner outfield spot.

 

Switch hitter, high OBP guy. Very very dependable player who at worst will give you a 2-2.5 WAR season with the potential for a 3-4 WAR season like he's having now. Career OPS+ of 122 and OBP of .366. In fact, he's never been a below average hitter in his entire career. Shouldn't be terribly expensive in FA either, plus Shapiro/Atkins are extremely familiar with him from Cleveland.

[burlingtonbandit]

What's everyone thoughts on somehow filling in Carlos Santana in our lineup? I know he's primarily a 1B, but he's been getting reps in the OF this season and I think he could play alright in a corner outfield spot.

 

Switch hitter, high OBP guy. Very very dependable player who at worst will give you a 2-2.5 WAR season with the potential for a 3-4 WAR season like he's having now. Career OPS+ of 122 and OBP of .366. In fact, he's never been a below average hitter in his entire career. Shouldn't be terribly expensive in FA either, plus Shapiro/Atkins are extremely familiar with him from Cleveland.

 

I think you need better OF defence. He's not going to be cheap either.

[TheHurl]

What's everyone thoughts on somehow filling in Carlos Santana in our lineup? I know he's primarily a 1B, but he's been getting reps in the OF this season and I think he could play alright in a corner outfield spot.

 

Switch hitter, high OBP guy. Very very dependable player who at worst will give you a 2-2.5 WAR season with the potential for a 3-4 WAR season like he's having now. Career OPS+ of 122 and OBP of .366. In fact, he's never been a below average hitter in his entire career. Shouldn't be terribly expensive in FA either, plus Shapiro/Atkins are extremely familiar with him from Cleveland.

 

Lets get some players that offer flexibility first...then start dealing in guys that we would struggle to make fit (-2 DRS in his 51 innings in the OF)

[G-Snarls]

Otani gets to pick his location. He's not coming to Toronto.

 

Yes

 

It's very different than what Darvish had to deal with

[G-Snarls]

Shapiro on exactly this - preparing for 2018:

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/590/jeff-blair-show/mark-shapiro-2018-presents-similar-situation-2017/

[baubau]

Otani gets to pick his location. He's not coming to Toronto.

 

You shut your dirty whore mouth.

 

yeah he isn't coming :-(

[G-Snarls]

Shapiro:

 

"It's hard to imagine a scenario where we're a better team without Josh Donaldson"

 

"It's hard to imagine a scenario where Josh isn't a part of a a championship team here"

 

"It's an almost certainty that he will be back here next year"

[G-Snarls]

So yeah

 

They're not trading Donaldson and they will try to extend him