Cardinals to Sign Dexter Fowler

[intentional wok]

Cubs fan and big Dex fan here. I was really hoping DF was heading to Toronto, as I can no longer root for him in STL. As for why he signed with the cardinals, I know he prefers to play CF, and he rejected the Orioles deal last season due to wanting an opt-out clause. Maybe STL included that clause.

 

It sounds like the Cards gave him some overwhelming cash, but I wonder if the positional thing was a factor too. He definitely wouldn't have gotten to play CF with Pillar here. I always figured that guys would lay off trying to label themselves as a premium position player once the big payday comes in but who knows. Welcome aboard.

 

Fowler signed in STL because they gave him 90 million reasons.

Jays are likely to never sign a big time FA under the Shatkins regime because they aren't willing to overpay for anyone. But that's what you have to do in free agency to land a big fish, overpay. Not saying this is a bad thing as lot of these free agent deals don't work out, but it's just a reality given this managements mindset. So the Jays are likely to circle around the free agent recycling and sale bins.

 

I disagree. I think they'll do anything if it makes sense. They offered 20M/yr to a 34-yo Edwin. I don't think they're unwilling to pay it up or even overpay. It just needs to make sense. Right now, a lot of cash is tied up in two guys who may be on irreparable decline (Tulo, Martin) so they're not in that great a position to start throwing bills around.

[Adipost]

Thanks! True, money talks. But if the guy has a choice with all other things being equal, I could see him opting for his preferred position.

[Krylian]

It sounds like the Cards gave him some overwhelming cash, but I wonder if the positional thing was a factor too. He definitely wouldn't have gotten to play CF with Pillar here. I always figured that guys would lay off trying to label themselves as a premium position player once the big payday comes in but who knows. Welcome aboard.

 

 

 

I disagree. I think they'll do anything if it makes sense. They offered 20M/yr to a 34-yo Edwin. I don't think they're unwilling to pay it up or even overpay. It just needs to make sense. Right now, a lot of cash is tied up in two guys who may be on irreparable decline (Tulo, Martin) so they're not in that great a position to start throwing bills around.

 

This regime/ownership group will never believe that overpaying will make sense...ever.

 

Meh. Really...I'm kinda over it. I've been hoping for a long time that they'll be more aggressive in the FA market rather than just having to trade for everyone. I've stopped hoping. Why not spend some cash AND keep your prospects?

[SweetSmellingChacin]

It sounds like the Cards gave him some overwhelming cash, but I wonder if the positional thing was a factor too. He definitely wouldn't have gotten to play CF with Pillar here. I always figured that guys would lay off trying to label themselves as a premium position player once the big payday comes in but who knows. Welcome aboard.

 

 

 

I disagree. I think they'll do anything if it makes sense. They offered 20M/yr to a 34-yo Edwin. I don't think they're unwilling to pay it up or even overpay. It just needs to make sense. Right now, a lot of cash is tied up in two guys who may be on irreparable decline (Tulo, Martin) so they're not in that great a position to start throwing bills around.

 

Is paying 20 million for EE overpaying though? That's about what he's worth given his past performance and his predicted performance in the future.

[saskjayfan]

It sounds like the Cards gave him some overwhelming cash, but I wonder if the positional thing was a factor too. He definitely wouldn't have gotten to play CF with Pillar here. I always figured that guys would lay off trying to label themselves as a premium position player once the big payday comes in but who knows. Welcome aboard.

 

 

 

I disagree. I think they'll do anything if it makes sense. They offered 20M/yr to a 34-yo Edwin. I don't think they're unwilling to pay it up or even overpay. It just needs to make sense. Right now, a lot of cash is tied up in two guys who may be on irreparable decline (Tulo, Martin) so they're not in that great a position to start throwing bills around.

 

some people talk about Tulo and Martin as if their decline rate will have them in a wheel chair by the end of their contract. Martin played through injury last year that most wouldn't have. They both had historically bad first 6 weeks of the season. I'd bet both have better offensive numbers than they did last year.

[Brownie19]

Is paying 20 million for EE overpaying though? That's about what he's worth given his past performance and his predicted performance in the future.

 

Considering it appears nobody else has offered him more....yes.

[saskjayfan]

Is paying 20 million for EE overpaying though? That's about what he's worth given his past performance and his predicted performance in the future.

 

20 mil is pretty fair value...they overpaid on Smoak and their ego won't allow them to admit a mistake.

[SweetSmellingChacin]

Considering it appears nobody else has offered him more....yes.

 

In the end, he's going to get his money from someone imo.

[Brownie19]

20 mil is pretty fair value...they overpaid on Smoak and their ego won't allow them to admit a mistake.

 

Johnny Assumptions - take a break would ya?

[Bobthe4th]

Longer they wait, the less value they'll get. I'd see what LA would give up...

 

Pederson, Puig, Urias and DeLeon would probably be in the ballpark...although LAA may prefer prospects over MLB ready guys in Pederson and Puig

 

3 years of Trout still gets you as much as anyone in baseball could get, he's that good.

 

Agree that if they wait any longer after the end of 2017 season that they could live to regret it though.

[SweetSmellingChacin]

Trout is worth the money. Whoever gives Harper 400+ million will regret it imo.

[Brownie19]

3 years of Trout still gets you as much as anyone in baseball could get, he's that good.

 

Agree that if they wait any longer after the end of 2017 season that they could live to regret it though.

 

Why would LA delay any longer? I guess he puts people in the seats, but surely they release that overspending on FA's, combined with some of the worst drafting in recent memory isn't going to surround Trout with enough talent to win.

[intentional wok]

This regime/ownership group will never believe that overpaying will make sense...ever.

 

Meh. Really...I'm kinda over it. I've been hoping for a long time that they'll be more aggressive in the FA market rather than just having to trade for everyone. I've stopped hoping. Why not spend some cash AND keep your prospects?

 

some people talk about Tulo and Martin as if their decline rate will have them in a wheel chair by the end of their contract. Martin played through injury last year that most wouldn't have. They both had historically bad first 6 weeks of the season. I'd bet both have better offensive numbers than they did last year.

 

My point is that I don't think there's anything to suggest they wouldn't do a bit of an overpay if it made sense in the context of where their other funds are tied up. I'm not trying to argue that Tulo and Martin are broken either. I'm just saying that if this FO is going to overpay, they probably prefer to do it on their own terms rather than triple down on 20M+ annual contracts when a couple of problematic guys on the squad already get that.

 

Plus, they offered 80M to Edwin, which no one else has done. And they did it almost immediately too, which suggests they had a pretty solid grasp of things. Some other FO may come out and just throw the moon at Edwin, but to me Shatkins already did their due diligence and showed they're willing to do what it takes. That Edwin rejected it is not on them.

[Bobthe4th]

Why would LA delay any longer? I guess he puts people in the seats, but surely they release that overspending on FA's, combined with some of the worst drafting in recent memory isn't going to surround Trout with enough talent to win.

 

They are on record as saying they don't want to trade him at all.

 

However, after another season of missing playoffs, and his price significantly increasing (even though he's worth it) not only will the pressure to trade be too large to ignore, Trout himself will surely start to be unhappy that he's wasting his career.

[RealAccountant]

20 mil is pretty fair value...they overpaid on Smoak and their ego won't allow them to admit a mistake.

 

Smoak and Pillar are best buds

[saskjayfan]

In the end, he's going to get his money from someone imo.

 

probably from St. Louis

[puphood]

What I am annoyed by is that the offers they seem to put forth (and we seem to hear about them all) are low enough that they know they will not be accepted (or at least they should realize they won't). Fowler seemed to be a guy they really wanted who fit the bill for what they are looking for and they offer him 4 years $60 million, but not enough to get the job done. If they had ponied up to the $18 million per year that was his asking price they possibly could have sealed the deal earlier before the Cards were in the picture. With EE they knew he wouldn't accept 4yrs $80 million w/o testing the market. His market is down and you could probably get him for that or less now, but I honestly don't think the intent was to ever have him back. We will make up for his production with 3 Steve Pearce's instead.

 

they offered EE last winter/spring 2 years and unknown $ which is to your point that they knew he would not have have taken it. I think they could of signed EE well below the 4/80 last winter and that is what they should be critized for.....I hope EE gets a good contract and comes back to burn this FO

[saskjayfan]

Smoak and Pillar are best buds

 

I think they were sharing the bud with the front office when Smoak got his contract

[saskjayfan]

Johnny Assumptions - take a break would ya?

 

It's more of a general assumption. No GM signs a guy and a month later admits it was a mistake. It's human nature, you do everything in your power to make that work.

[HERPDERP]

Smoak and Pillar are best buds

 

they probably swap wives

[Jonn]

they probably swap wives

 

Nah

[BlueJayWay]

There seems to be some sort of elephant in the room among the media regarding Bautista and the FO that they don't see eye to eye or something. Davidi is one of the most connected people and he said the odds were basically zero today on the radio.

Yeah he said that during the roundtable with Blair, Wilner et al. I wish he had gone more into it. I can see Edwin not being back, since he just doesn't fit into the roster anymore. The Jays could use outfielders though and Bautista can still do that, plus he'd be much cheaper than Edwin. In theory he should be an option for the Jays but Davidi says 'zero chance'. He must know something specific.

[RealAccountant]

they probably swap wives

 

I don't see it from Pillars perspective

[glory]

they probably swap wives

 

Getting an unearned contract and banging Pillar's wife? Smoak loving life.

[HERPDERP]

[Jonn]

5 years 82.5M wow with a full no trade

[burlingtonbandit]

MLB seems to be going the way of the NHL a few years back with basically any decent FA getting a full NTC. In today's climate those are probably worth more than 10% of the contract if not more. You lose all flexibility if the team has a down year and you want to move that player.

[Laika]

Contract basically = his fair value.

 

Losing the draft pick means St Louis essentially pays $92-95M in value. That's the push they had to make to get him.

[glory]

Five years and a NTC? Wow.

[Brownie19]

I don't see it from Pillars perspective

 

For the average folk - it doesn't matter as much about appearance. It's about test driving a new car. BMW, Mazda? doesn't matter.

 

 

Something tells me MLB players don't get the same thrill.