Trade for Andrew McCutchen (NJH #7)

[Laika]

This is the seventh of many offseason threads where I'll take a stance and advocate for the Blue Jays to make a specific move.

I may not actually think Toronto should make every move, but I'll lay out the case for it in order to generate discussion.

 

Toronto Should Trade for Andrew McCutchen

 

For the most part, this is a suggestion that writes itself. Nonetheless, I will try to be interesting here.

 

Andrew McCutchen was bloody awful last year. He played through injuries and limped to a 106 wRC+, his already fringy CF defense fell off a cliff, and he ended up accruing just 0.7 fWAR. That put him as the 96th best outfielder in MLB in 2016... he was as valuable as Ezequiel Carrera and worth 0.5 wins LESS than Melvin Upton!

 

McCutchen also pocketed $13M while sucking. He is owed $14M next year and his contract includes a 2018 team option for $14.5M.

 

Of course, Cutch was one of the most well-rounded and valuable players in baseball up until his disastrous age 29 season. He was the rightful MVP in 2013 and deservedly finished 3rd, 3rd, and 5th in MVP voting in surrounding seasons.

 

McCutchen's Steamer projection for 2017 of 3.3 fWAR is not necessarily very informative. That figure simply splits the difference between his terrible 2016 and his previous talent level. After a season where Cutch struck out at a higher rate than ever and ran the bases like Yonder Alonso, the fear that he has suddenly lost his athleticism and entered into a Griffey-esque precipitous drop is hard to escape. Scientifically, we should expect Cutch to regress to the mean. Unscientifically, I'm worried about the dude.

 

But his talent, history, and the narrative of an injury plagued 2016 still make him an obvious rebound candidate on paper. If he bounces back to even 40% of his previous demonstrated talent then he'll probably be worth his contract and then some. At his Steamer Projection he's worth a lot more than his contract. For any team with a normal amount of money, in a nutshell, Cutch would be an obvious commodity to hold on to. But the Pirates aren't a normal team. Historically, the pitiful Pirates have operated with a payroll in the bottom ~5 in the entire league. For 2017, ignoring arbitration players, Cutch represents 25% of the team's total committed payroll.

 

If Pittsburgh believes that McCutchen has gone over the hill - not an unreasonable position to take about a 30 year old in the modern game - then moving his money could make a lot of sense. The Pirates can do a lot of s*** with $14M. The team also might have a capable outfield even with Cutch out of the picture. Marte is very good, Polanco is a solid regular with immense promise, and top prospect Austin Meadows has all the talent in the world and is essentially major league ready. Young hitter Josh Bell has also dabbled in the OF a little bit.

 

Holding onto Cutch isn't really a risk that the Pirates need to take, especially when his track record and contract will allow him to fetch a premium trade package. Rumours are flying right now that Pittsburgh is aggressively shopping the star player. Washington is said to be "in the lead" with Pittsburgh seeking elite prospect Victor Robles - a top 10 overall prospect in baseball - and then some. Joe Ross and Reynaldo Lopez, two very talented and controllable arms who have seen MLB time, are also in the mix.

 

What could Toronto put together that would look like Robles+? Well we need to start with the team's top prospects. Prospect pundits don't indicate that Toronto has anybody comparable to Victor Robles, but they do have four guys who probably slot into a top 100 list - Vlad Jr., Alford, Sean Reid-Foley, and Richard Urena. To compete with Washington's assets Toronto would likely need to offer 2 or 3 of those names. Alford, SRF, and Urena all make a bit of sense for Pittsburgh. Alford replaces some of the outfield depth that Cutch would leave in his wake, every team appreciates high upside arms like SRF, and as a shortstop Urena would satisfy a bit of an organizational thin spot for the Pirates. Let's also assume that Pitt would ask for Dalton Pompey, a controllable outfielder with an appreciable skill-set who could help secure their outfield depth immediately.

 

So it's Alford + SRF + Urena + Pompey (or something like that).

 

If Cutch is worth 6-7 wins in the next two years, his surplus value would be something in the ballpark of $20M - $30M.

 

How much are those prospects worth? Hitters in the #75-100 range are worth about $20M; pitchers in that range are worth about $15M. So we're at $55M without evaluating Pompey.

 

But Toronto is at the peak end of the win curve, and McCutchen's immediate impact is worth more than his napkin value. Marginal wins around the 90 win level are worth considerably more than the general free agent market based $/WAR would indicate.

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dUvDAtaIzO0/S9KMrSjUSxI/AAAAAAAAAD0/IwQfjXEON7Q/s400/graph1b.jpg

 

Does Toronto's position on the win curve inflate McCutchen's expected value to the point that the hypothetical trade is fair? I really can't say for sure. I think it would be pretty close, but you can kind of crunch those numbers any way you want.

 

Regardless, Toronto has payroll space, needs an outfielder, and is in a position where a short-term high upside risk like Cutch makes all the sense in the world. Alford, SRF, Urena, and Pompey probably aren't helping the team win very many games in 2017. When that bundle of youngsters are ready to contribute Toronto's core won't look very much like it does today. Donaldson is probably here for only two more years, so Cutch lines up perfectly to the Josh Donaldson Era of Toronto baseball.

 

If McCutchen comes to Toronto and rebounds most of the way to what he used to be, that's a World Series winning move. Flags fly forever.

[Dr. Dinger]

FINALLY. Thanks.

[guylaroche5]

I'm all for getting Cutch but I don't think Shatkins will pillage the farm for him, that seems like an AA move. The new regime seems a lot more conservative to me.

[G-Snarls]

YES

 

cf (cutch filler)

[xposbrad]

If this team had tons of prospects I would be for it, but not for 2 years of a possibility he returns to big numbers. Doesn't make sense at all. You can just sign fowler, and he'd only cost a draft pick. This team has very few premium prospects, so trading them is not a smart move.

[Laika]

I'm all for getting Cutch but I don't think Shatkins will pillage the farm for him, that seems like an AA move. The new regime seems a lot more conservative to me.

 

Yeah if AA was still at the helm Cutch probably would already be a Blue Jay

[Pendleton]

Another great read! I would like to see your analysis on the remaining LH relief options and who would be the best fit for the Jays.

[BTS]

Seems like Pittsburgh and Washington are closing in on a deal, and people are suggesting packages like Giolito/Robles + Lopez. If that's where the bidding is, we don't have the pieces.

[Dr. Dinger]

Yeah if AA was still at the helm Cutch probably would already be a Blue Jay

 

AA went through a prospect hoarding phase before the Marlins trade. I think most GMs are smart enough to realize when they should buy and when they should hold. Let's not be so quick to pigeonhole Shatkins into a particular paradigm.

[Dr. Dinger]

Seems like Pittsburgh and Washington are closing in on a deal, and people are suggesting packages like Giolito/Robles + Lopez. If that's where the bidding is, we don't have the pieces.

 

That would be a great haul for Pittsburgh. We can't beat that, so hopefully it's not true.

[Dr Negative]

If this team had tons of prospects I would be for it, but not for 2 years of a possibility he returns to big numbers. Doesn't make sense at all. You can just sign fowler, and he'd only cost a draft pick. This team has very few premium prospects, so trading them is not a smart move.

 

I don't really see why the number of good prospects a team has in the system should have any bearing on whether it is a good idea to trade them.

[Laika]

AA went through a prospect hoarding phase before the Marlins trade. I think most GMs are smart enough to realize when they should buy and when they should hold. Let's not be so quick to pigeonhole Shatkins into a particular paradigm.

 

Absolutely. We did just see the front office descendants of Shatkins trade Clint Frazier++ for Andrew Miller, after all.

[Laika]

Another great read! I would like to see your analysis on the remaining LH relief options and who would be the best fit for the Jays.

 

Boone Logan was suggested in a past thread. If I have time I will probably turn that suggestion into a LH relief options (trade and free agency) survey.

[Dr. Dinger]

I don't really see why the number of good prospects a team has in the system should have any bearing on whether it is a good idea to trade them.

 

We have two years left of Donaldson, that is by far the most important factor here. We need to try to win while we still have an MVP caliber player anchoring our team. If that doesn't pan out, then we can rebuild.

[Dr. Dinger]

Absolutely. We did just see the front office descendants of Shatkins trade Clint Frazier++ for Andrew Miller, after all.

 

We also have a very different payroll than Cleveland. The smaller your payroll, the more you have to hold onto prospects.

[Abomination]

We have two years left of Donaldson, that is by far the most important factor here. We need to try to win while we still have an MVP caliber player anchoring our team. If that doesn't pan out, then we can rebuild.

 

I'd be in favor of trading Donaldson now if we could get a return to help us this year. Something involving the Dodgers for Pederson and Urias for example (they wouldn't do it mind you, although apparently they are in on McCutchen), then sign Turner.

[Dr Negative]

I'd be in favor of trading Donaldson now if we could get a return to help us this year. Something involving the Dodgers for Pederson and Urias for example (they wouldn't do it mind you, although apparently they are in on McCutchen), then sign Turner.

 

Seems like one of those ideas that is great in theory but horrible in practice. Better to keep Donaldson and trade him next year if we are out of due to a crippling sequence of injuries in the starting rotation.

[Laika]

http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/11577896-74/mccutchen-pirates-traded

 

timely article ^

[burlingtonbandit]

For the cost it would take, I'll pass. Rather sign a FA like Fowler and/or Bautista and save the prospects. I can't see this FO parting with the significant prospects it would take to land him.

[Frenchsoup]

For the cost it would take, I'll pass. Rather sign a FA like Fowler and/or Bautista and save the prospects. I can't see this FO parting with the significant prospects it would take to land him.

 

Fowler is pricy as hell. Probably at the height of his stock. He's a nice fit, but 65mil+? Yikes. But yeah I'll take Joey Freaking Bats in LF over Fowler all day everyday. Especially with his poor communication in the CF that took out one of the Cubs better bats.

[Key22]

It does also depend on how Shatkins views these prospects since they're not Shatkins chosen prospects. Teams value people differently. I believe it was LA's GM who noted when dealing with a club about trading a vet that he said something along the lines that Tampa asked for the "right prospects" and not the "name prospects [ie the ones on top prospect lists] - and the deal didn't get done as a result.

 

I am sure they talk to every club on every player that could help them.

 

Maybe you look at Adam Eaton - younger controllable and good too. So the team no doubt weighs things like - hey if we're going to trade 3-4 of our top prospects do we want a guy who is financially cheaper for 5-6 years or a guy who costs more money for 2?

 

Or you look at older free agents like Fowler who if you have to go 5 years for a speed game guy at 33-35 - this is not so appealing. Is he a Tony Fernandez kind of bat at 37 and still able to make an all star team with his .427OBP. Or will he drop off in a big way.

 

I did like the article on the platoon advantages - rather than playing those guys who are streaky you can play the hot hand - so having a Pearce and another like player or a Fowler who is fairly consistent all year. Guys who don't strikeout - that can be useful when making an out. With an excellent rotation - and a bunch of above average bats - add some relief and it should be a contending club. If I were going to trade a lot of prospects I'd probably want at least 4 years of control coming back. Like a Josh Donaldson (and look what we gave up for that).

[G-Snarls]

Reports keep surfacing that Nationals and Pirates are discussing deals that would involve Victor Robles and a top pitching prospect going to Pittsburgh in exchange for McCutchen

[intentional wok]

Reports keep surfacing that Nationals and Pirates are discussing deals that would involve Victor Robles and a top pitching prospect going to Pittsburgh in exchange for McCutchen

 

Marte will move to CF and Meadows will take up left. I believe the consensus is that he's ready for the show?

 

Then, if this deal lands, Robles will be the heir to CF when they flip Marte. Never ending elite Pirates OF.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Reports keep surfacing that Nationals and Pirates are discussing deals that would involve Victor Robles and a top pitching prospect going to Pittsburgh in exchange for McCutchen

 

I for one hope they can pull it off !

[snow19]

While there's no doubt Andy Mc is a solid baseball athlete I would rather see Jays holding onto its prospects. I would rather see Jays going Ben Revere instead of Andy Mc and keep all the Jays prospects

 

It makes me feel sad everytime Thor puts together a quality outing while our oldfart gives up a HR in the 1st inning

 

Outfield

 

Pimpey - Pillar - Revere

 

Backup OFers - Sierra, Upton

 

DH Morales / Upton

 

PR - Upton

 

Sometimes, the best trade is "No trade at all"

 

Imagine, if Jays did not make Thor trade and David Price trade this team would have

 

Thor - Happ - Sanchez - Estrada - Norris as the starting rotation...!

 

And just because there is a big name FA does not mean or it is automatically a good idea for any team to sign him

 

I'm sure Red Sox organization wishes it did not have Panda on its roster.

Edited December 4, 2016 by snow19

[Brownie19]

I'm all for bringing Ruben Sierra too! Switch hitter with pop

[snow19]

I meant Careers but if Ruben Sierra is willing to come out of retirement sure Jays should let him have second stint with Jays

[LGBJ29]

While there's no doubt Andy Mc is a solid baseball athlete I would rather see Jays holding onto its prospects. I would rather see Jays going Ben Revere instead of Andy Mc and keep all the Jays prospects

 

It makes me feel sad everytime Thor puts together a quality outing while our oldfart gives up a HR in the 1st inning

 

Outfield

 

Pimpey - Pillar - Revere

 

Backup OFers - Sierra, Upton

 

DH Morales / Upton

 

PR - Upton

 

Sometimes, the best trade is "No trade at all"

 

Imagine, if Jays did not make Thor trade and David Price trade this team would have

 

Thor - Happ - Sanchez - Estrada - Norris as the starting rotation...!

 

And just because there is a big name FA does not mean or it is automatically a good idea for any team to sign him

 

I'm sure Red Sox organization wishes it did not have Panda on its roster.

 

you're trying too hard

[Nafro]

I don't think we have what the Nationals have to offer. I hope we trade for him though. I think that's a game changer for next season. Best suggestion so far NJH.

[bzapple]

I was lurking recently and saw that you had a thread about trading for Yasiel Puig. I only just glanced at the thread but I remember thinking "nice one NJH, I agree". I like that a little better than going after Cutch. I agree with the posters saying that this would be an AA move, and I think reminiscent of the Reyes and Tulo trades. Former stars who lost a bit of value and could return to form but actually maybe they won't because they're old. As cliche and arbitrary as it may seem, it's hard not to be worried about McCutchen having his worst season just as he passes the big 3-O. Combine that with the three-year decline in K% and baserunning numbers, and his stardom days could be over. That's not to say he couldn't be the 3-4 WAR player he's projected as for some years to come, but right now Pittsburgh will be marketing him as an MVP calibre player who just had one down year. His trade value has dropped but not significantly. If we're going to gamble, I'd rather it be on a younger player.