Sign Josh Reddick and DO NOT trade for Jay Bruce (NJH #4)

[Laika]

This will be the fourth of many offseason threads where I'll take a stance and advocate for the Blue Jays to make (or not make) a specific move.

I may not actually think Toronto should make every move, but I'll lay out the case for it in order to generate discussion.

 

Toronto should sign Josh Reddick

Toronto should NOT trade for Jay Bruce

 

Jay Bruce f***ing blows.

 

He is clearly no longer the player that he was from 2010 to 2013. Back then he was a consistent 30 HR hitter who could be counted on for offensive production that was 20% above the average hitter to go along with competent to above average RF defensive. He was an All-Star, a Silver Slugger, and an MVP vote-getter.

 

Bruce has been a replacement level player for three years now. He was exceptionally bad in his last two full seasons for the Reds (79 and 92 wRC+; -0.7 fWAR in total). In 2016 his bat bounced back a little bit (111 wRC+) but the 29 year old had his worst baserunning and defensive year ever and he didn't even reach the 1 WAR mark. He'll be 30 next season so it is sensible to worry that his baserunning and defense true talent have both declined, putting Jay Bruce into the DH discussion.

 

If the trade rumours contain any thread of truth then Toronto has had serious interest in this guy for a year now. I'm still struggling to see the appeal. Do they think they can fix him for some specific reason that is impossible to pick up on paper? We can only hope that the rumours are BS.

 

He's under contract for $13M next year. If Toronto wants a s***** platoon outfielder, they can get one better than Bruce for much cheaper. Matt Joyce? Colby Rasmus has more upside at this point than Bruce and he might take like $8M. Heck, if they have $13M I'd prefer a veteran statue starter in LF such as Beltran or Holliday, both of whom might sign for something around 1/$13.

 

But if Toronto wants to make a wise free agency investment in a viable corner outfield starter for the next few years, there is one on the market.

 

Josh Reddick is a linear upgrade on Jay Bruce in nearly every way.

 

Reddick projects to be an above average hitter and has been for the last three seasons. Reddick makes a surprising amount of contact for a guy who seems to have a reputation as a slugging platoon player - his K rate was under 13% in the last two seasons. Speaking of power, while Reddick's raw HR totals and his career ISO show plus power but nothing extreme, playing his entire career in cavernous pitchers' parks probably masks some pop. For an anecdote, check how much Donaldson's ISO increased when he went from Oakland to Toronto (hint: a lot).

 

Reddick can run the bases. He has been worth nearly 2 full WAR in his career based on positive baserunning alone. He can also catch the ball; his career UZR/150 is +11.1 and you'll remember the Gold Glove he won a few years ago. While his defensive skills may have slipped a bit recently and his numbers have been merely average the last two years, they are still a country mile better than Jay Bruce's.

 

Reddick's biggest wart is that he apparently can't hit lefties at all. His wRC+ against them in his career is a mere 78. Toronto could and probably should deploy him in a platoon with Melvin Upton.

 

All things together, Reddick is a skill package that the projection machine accessible through Fangraphs believes would put up 2.1 WAR next year in 122 games.

 

MLBTR predicts that Reddick will get 3/$36. That's essentially the same AAV as Bruce, and the term is comfortable for a contract that will cover Reddick's age 30-32 seasons. If you factor in a bit of decline and assume he would provide the Jays with 5.5 WAR in three years then he would be worth more than $36 million.

 

However, I think Reddick has some untapped upside as he enters his baseball mid-life. In the best year of his career in 2012 Reddick hit 32 bombs while whiffing 22.4% of the time. He had a .237 ISO against LHP that year. In every year since then he has struck out less often but hit for notably less power. In the recent two seasons he has been platooned more frequently. Josh Reddick doesn't strike me as the type of player that I want striking out just 11% of the time. He should be flexing more often and trying to send balls into orbit. Is it possible that Reddick could benefit from a Toronto organization that clearly is not afraid of the strikeout? Maybe O.Co Coliseum got in his head a bit. Maybe struggles against lefties got in his head too. Maybe Reddick focused too much on making contact these last few years and not enough on doing damage. Maybe the Rogers Centre would provide the shot of confidence that Reddick needs to return to a double-plus power hitter, and maybe as he turns 30 he'll be learned enough to couple that with the solid AVG/OBP + plate discipline skills he demonstrated in the last two years. This is pure conjecture based on the Fangraphs dashboard statistics but the narrative is attractive.

 

But, Toronto doesn't need him to "break out" in order to get value from a 3/$36 deal. In a weak free agent crop, Reddick's act of tanking his own value in Los Angeles presents the opportunity for Toronto to land an average or better corner outfielder for a relatively attractive free agent price. The team needs corner outfielders. Sign Josh Reddick! And for the love of God and all that is holy, don't trade for Jay f***ing Bruce.

[Candy Maldonado]

[Ray]

Honestly, I'm sure Bruce is a last resort in case someone outbids us for Reddick. A lot of teams are after Reddick, so it's not terrible to have a fallback.

 

I really want Reddick though. He fits us like a glove.

[Ehjays]

Sign Josh Reddick! And for the love of God and all that is holy, don't trade for Jay f***ing Bruce.

 

 

LOL

 

I agree and I think the Jays are only looking at options with no QO attached

 

So Reddick would be nice.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Say " No, Hell No" to both and stop the Insanity now! Please

 

Either move and I demand Atkins to take a Pee Test !!! Lol

 

 

Ps also well played NJH, well played! Clap Clap Clap ... Clap !!!

[Mittens87]

Say " No, Hell No" to both and stop the Insanity now! Please

 

Either move and I demand Atkins to take a Pee Test !!! Lol

 

Who do you think they should sign?

[Jonn]

Reddick is the right move.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Not Him! Lol

 

Oh Mittens Mittens Mittens!!! Lol

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Reddick is the right move.[/quote

 

Nope,over Bruce I would agree! Over what's available, not so much.

[Mittens87]

Okay not reddick or Bruce but who are a couple options that are better? Who is available that is so much better of a fit?

[Grant77]

When I look at Reddick I see a player in decline. I'm really not interested in committing significant long term dollars to a player like him.

 

His defense has been a negative for two consecutive years now. To expect that to recover in his 30's is rather optimistic in my view. I watched him with the Dodgers a lot during Vin Scully's farewell tour and he was very lumbering out there. Maybe that means nothing, but the eye test supports the stats so I buy the decline.

 

He's been a positive baserunner in the past, but he was merely neutral in 2016, and again that is a skill that I don't expect to recover in his 30's. I'm not interested in paying for past performance.

 

I don't know what to make of the bat. You make some interesting points and maybe there is some more power in there. On a gamble like that though, I'd rather bet on a short term player like Bruce than sign Reddick for 3 years and cross our fingers.

 

Angel Pagan his just as well as Reddick last year and is still a plus defender and baserunner. I'm not saying he'd be better, but the financial commitment would appear to be much lower.

 

The same could be said for Matt Joyce, who actually hits righties quite a bit better than Reddick ever has. The defense is a little questionable, but again the financial commitment looks much more palatable.

 

TLDR: Reddick is past his prime and is declining across the board. I'd prefer a short term option.

[jays4life19]

Reddick is the right move.

 

Only if it's 3 years/36 million. I guess i could live with 3/40 too.

[intentional wok]

I think the rumours about Bruce interest are pretty true unfortunately. If not for a failed physical somewhere last offseason we'd have been watching Bruce in LF and Saunders would have been in Anaheim.

[Frenchsoup]

I like Bruce better then Reddick.. I love Jay B's contract..wouldn't pay Reddick what it sounds like he will get.

[BlueRocky]

They're probably just kicking tires.

Nothing to see here

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Okay not reddick or Bruce but who are a couple options that are better? Who is available that is so much better of a fit?

 

Fowler and Desmond for certain if they didn't cost a pick.

 

Angel Pagen, Carlos Gomez, Steve Pearce, Sean Rodriguez all should come in cheaper and might require less years. Plus Pearce and Gomez give you great roster flexibility, none listed require a platoon and make Upton a asset for a trade for something... Ie pen help.

 

And if you have to trade for Bruce just resign Saunders or play Pompey!

 

If you have to trade look to colaorado and trade up

[Mittens87]

Fowler and Desmond did get QO. They will be more than 12 million. pearce, donno about him in everyday OF, Gomez isn't really a great bat. Donno how Pagan would do, he is getting old also. None of those guys is really much better of an option. Fowler probably wants 4/65 or something, maybe more or less.... Probably same deal with Desmond, someone will over pay for him

[Dr. Dinger]

Hell yes to Josh Reddick if it only costs the same as the Happ contract. I'm not panicking about Bruce though, I have a feeling that Shatkins would only take him on an Upton-like deal. I wouldn't mind him for an extremely cheap price. If you DH him a lot and platoon him appropriately, I think he could be a contributor.

[Abomination]

Hell yes to Josh Reddick if it only costs the same as the Happ contract. I'm not panicking about Bruce though, I have a feeling that Shatkins would only take him on an Upton-like deal. I wouldn't mind him for an extremely cheap price. If you DH him a lot and platoon him appropriately, I think he could be a contributor.

 

They wouldn't have picked up Bruce's option if they were going to do an Upton like deal.

[Dr. Dinger]

They wouldn't have picked up Bruce's option if they were going to do an Upton like deal.

 

I could see the Mets eating $3-5 million depending on the prospect they get. I don't mind Bruce at somewhere around $9M, you're basically betting on him to be a 1 WAR player. He could easily have a good year and double or triple that value, and I don't think we're talking about a Top 5 Jays prospect going their way in return.

[Laika]

They wouldn't have picked up Bruce's option if they were going to do an Upton like deal.

 

I dunno. Maybe they don't really like him that much but they picked up the option just to have that safety net. Similar to Toronto extending Smoak.

 

If they re-sign Cespedes then you might see them trade Bruce, maybe even some of the $ to facilitate. Cespedes-Granderson-Conforto-Lagares is probably a better outfield configuration than one involving Bruce.

[Angrioter]

3 years ago

Please Alex, trade for Saunders

[TwistedLogic]

Fowler and Desmond for certain if they didn't cost a pick.

 

Angel Pagen, Carlos Gomez, Steve Pearce, Sean Rodriguez all should come in cheaper and might require less years. Plus Pearce and Gomez give you great roster flexibility, none listed require a platoon and make Upton a asset for a trade for something... Ie pen help.

 

And if you have to trade for Bruce just resign Saunders or play Pompey!

 

If you have to trade look to colaorado and trade up

 

When did BBBB go from shitposting to putting together coherent sentences?

[Abomination]

When did BBBB go from shitposting to putting together coherent sentences?

 

[Jonn]

Only if it's 3 years/36 million. I guess i could live with 3/40 too.

 

That's what he's projected to get. Extremely manageable. I really only see the Orioles overpaying him. Hopefully he will choose here.

[King]

When did BBBB go from shitposting to putting together coherent sentences?

 

I always believed in him.

[Stangstag]

3 years ago

Please Alex, trade for Saunders

 

Yeah, that was before he tore his knee up tripping on a sprinkler head.

[THANOS]

I could see the Mets eating $3-5 million depending on the prospect they get. I don't mind Bruce at somewhere around $9M, you're basically betting on him to be a 1 WAR player. He could easily have a good year and double or triple that value, and I don't think we're talking about a Top 5 Jays prospect going their way in return.

 

I wouldn't give up anything more than, say, Dwight Smith Jr, for Bruce. More over, I wouldn't even shell out a top 15 prospect.

[TBJ12]

I don't like Bruce or Reddick, but I'd rather take my chances with Bruce on a one year deal if the cost was near nothing.

[King]

 

Retweet away fellas. Good thread again from NJH. I think he's trying to make a late push for Best Poster after slacking for the earlier part of the year.