Jays sign Morales 3 years 33M

[G-Snarls]

Draft picks tip the value balance a lot

[Ray]

 

Potentially 3 first round draft picks next season. Got me foaming at the mouth here.

 

Sign Reddick and lets do this.

[Maico450]

That's $31 million spent in the offseason already just on the 1B/DH positions alone, and also not accounting for the outfielder(s) we need and bullpen we need to shore up. Fowler or Reddick aren't gonna come cheap either. I'm just saying, $20 million for signing Edwin doesn't seem like the most efficient use of funds here.

 

I would much rather we target someone like Holliday or Pearce to play 1B. Not as good individuals hitters as Edwin, but we don't need them to be if we have a better balanced team. Plus they'll come for less than half the cost of Edwin.

 

I don't totally disagree. However how do you replace Edwins bat for less than 20 mill a yr? You cant.

Nobody knows how much $$ is available this winter. I think there is a lot. I think the FO has been told to get the job done,

meaning improving the team over the last 2 seasons. so I see a bunch of improvements coming, that will cost some $$.

[Key22]

From the predicted contracts of MLB trade rumours - Morales was likely to get a 2 year $26milllion deal. So the third year is basically $7 million. Bottom line is that at an AAV of $11 million and a second player at around $12 million AAV is two players for the price of one Edwin and for less years (plus draft pick) - this package of three is likely better than one Edwin. And basically you do the same count for JB. So four players plus 2 draft picks. And this is a team that won on the back of its pitching staff anyway.

 

Morales may also see an uptick in his overall numbers as he did manage 30 homers playing at Kauffman. He hit 18 away and 12 at home - So I would expect him to be in the 35+ homer range and his OBP is decent enough. He hit 14 of his 30 homers in September and August. JA Happ? JB? Maybe taken him time to put it together - hahaha. Shatkins might be seeing something here.

[G-Snarls]

Potentially 3 first round draft picks next season. Got me foaming at the mouth here.

 

Sign Reddick and lets do this.

 

Yes

 

No QO on him either

[Ray]

I don't totally disagree. However how do you replace Edwins bat for less than 20 mill a yr? You cant.

Nobody knows how much $$ is available this winter. I think there is a lot. I think the FO has been told to get the job done,

meaning improving the team over the last 2 seasons. so I see a bunch of improvements coming, that will cost some $$.

 

I don't know if I see payroll increasing past $170 million. I think that's the ceiling here. Even that's not a given. Might be 160-165.

[Spanky99]

I like when people post quotes from buck and pat as their own

 

I liked when you stayed on the old forum.

[KingKat]

If they go cheap on the FA market, maybe we see some money going to extensions. Estrada would be a good candidate.

[Spanky99]

Look I know who he is but I don't want to keep playing whack-a-mole with new identity after new identity. "Gary" hasn't really done anything yet. I'm willing to give him some rope. If he keeps pushing the stupidity envelope, he knows what will happen.

 

Fair enough,

[Spanky99]

Draft picks tip the value balance a lot

 

No doubt.

[Spanky99]

From the predicted contracts of MLB trade rumours - Morales was likely to get a 2 year $26milllion deal. So the third year is basically $7 million. Bottom line is that at an AAV of $11 million and a second player at around $12 million AAV is two players for the price of one Edwin and for less years (plus draft pick) - this package of three is likely better than one Edwin. And basically you do the same count for JB. So four players plus 2 draft picks. And this is a team that won on the back of its pitching staff anyway.

 

Morales may also see an uptick in his overall numbers as he did manage 30 homers playing at Kauffman. He hit 18 away and 12 at home - So I would expect him to be in the 35+ homer range and his OBP is decent enough. He hit 14 of his 30 homers in September and August. JA Happ? JB? Maybe taken him time to put it together - hahaha. Shatkins might be seeing something here.

 

We see it, too.

[Spanky99]

I'm all systems go, on this FO!

[Maico450]

If they go cheap on the FA market, maybe we see some money going to extensions. Estrada would be a good candidate.

 

you don't think they are in a Win Now mode?

ownership knows they are close.......

[Spanky99]

you don't think they are in a Win Now mode?

ownership knows they are close.......

 

He's saying they see both as a viable result, don't see how you thought different.

 

Value > contracts/signings.

[Maico450]

He's saying they see both as a viable result, don't see how you thought different.

 

Value > contracts/signings.

 

Extensions are for tomorrow. yes very important.

[Mittens87]

I liked when you stayed on the old forum.

 

Was never on an old forum

[Pendleton]

If we come out of the off season with Gurriel, Morales, Reddick, Cecil/Logan and three first round picks, that would be pretty damn awesome.

[Spanky99]

Was never on an old forum

 

Okay Knee_Pads, I gotcha!

[agrushcow]

Steve Pearce, Jon Jay and Reddick would be ideal to round out this lineup. Honestly would be fine with just Pearce and Jay and rounding out the bullpen.

[Spanky99]

Steve Pearce, Jon Jay and Reddick would be ideal to round out this lineup. Honestly would be fine with just Pearce and Jay and rounding out the bullpen.

 

Meh... ex-nay on Jay, but the others would be gravy with a Cecil re-sign and Ziegler.

[RealAccountant]

Unless we make more impact moves this is a .500 team maybe even less if you look at the steamer projections. I don't even think they have us at 30 WAR right now

[Mikeleelop]

Unless we make more impact moves this is a .500 team maybe even less if you look at the steamer projections. I don't even think they have us at 30 WAR right now

 

It's Nov 11th dude

[Spanky99]

It's Nov 11th dude

 

No worries man, he's more worried about cricket.

[JuniorFelix]

I'm all systems go, on this FO!

I am as well i think.

 

That said, do you intentionally misplace commas?

[Spanky99]

I am as well i think.

 

That said, do you intentionally misplace commas?

 

No... I'm just drunk. Do you miss caps intentionally?

[JuniorFelix]

No... I'm just drunk. Do you miss caps intentionally?

 

Laziness and a bit of drunkenness reporting for duty.

 

edit: Wasn't trying to be a dink, sorry.

[Spanky99]

Laziness and a bit of drunkenness reporting for duty.

 

edit: Wasn't trying to be a dink, sorry.

 

Yeah... I figured as much, dumbass!

[Brownie19]

If we come out of the off season with Gurriel, Morales, Reddick, Cecil/Logan and three first round picks, that would be pretty damn awesome.

 

What are they saying for the upcoming draft? DEEEEP I hope

[Spanky99]

What are they saying for the upcoming draft? DEEEEP I hope

 

Very deep. We need Ace... he's missing though.

[wk680]

A few thoughts now that I've digested this a bit more:

 

- I think something that probably played a factor here is stability. Not year-to-year, but game -to-game. LF, RF, and 1B are all holes, and at least one is likely to be a platoon. Morales is a switch hitter with no platoon split. He's someone that Gibby is going to pencil in 3rd or 4th every day, regardless of who's on the mound. There's value in that in a lineup that might have a lot of moving parts.

 

- He can hit. A wRC+ between 110 and 136 in 6 of the last 7 years, with the only exception being in 2014 where he waited until midseason to sign and never got going. Projections are probably giving more weight than they should to his 2014. Also, as GD alluded to, he relies on the HR to do damage and Kaufman really wasn't a good park for his skill set. I'm willing to bet that internal projections have him closer to a 120 wRC+ next year than the 109 Steamer has for him.

 

- There has been research done on the 'skill' of being able to DH without seeing your numbers drop, as a lot of players don't like doing it, and perform worse in the role. I wonder if the team buys into this kind of thing and saw value in Morales as a guy who is absolutely fine swinging 4 times a game and sitting out the rest.

 

Overall, I don't love it, but I'm fine with it. I wish it were 2/22, but I think Morales will be a nice addition to the lineup in the short term. He's not Edwin, but he can hit.

 

I agree about him not having to prove he can perform as a DH. With a Holiday (or Beltran), you would just be taking it as an article of faith that the transition will go smoothly.

 

Also I did an average of his OPS+ for the past 5 seasons, weighted for the number of PAs in those 5 seasons, and I got a weighted average OPS+ of 113.

 

I noticed this statement from the Shi Davidi article:

 

"He also has a reputation as a strong and positive clubhouse presence."

 

And this from a guy who helped lead the Royals to 2016 WS. So that may add some intangible value.