Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[G-Snarls]

Nope. Hasn't had them for awhile actually.

 

That`s right, I forgot. It was issue spring 2016

[KingKat]

That`s right, I forgot. It was issue spring 2016

 

... and 2015 IIRC.

[Orgfiller]

2016 Pompey:

 

.270/.349/.353 (OPS .702) over 93 games in AAA

 

Not much XB/HR power for a corner OF

 

Even Pillar was a much better AAA hitter than that

 

Meh

 

In Pompey's defense, Pillar was a lot older.

[BTS]

In Pompey's defense, Pillar was a lot older.

 

Even so, Pompey has slugged 0.362 in 734 AAA plate appearances. He's probably going to hit like Kevin Pillar, maybe worse. Defense will have to be his carrying tool, and we've seen conflicting reports about how competent he is out there.

[Terminator]

Maybe Shatkins thinks Melvin Upton is better than we are giving him credit for? If he plays more like he did when he was with the Padres and puts up a 90 wRC+ (he was 109 and 99 in two different seasons with them) to go with good baserunning and defense he'd be a perfectly fine option as a full-time starter and #9 hitter. That'd get him north of 1.5 WAR which would be fine.

 

Perhaps the Jays think he can do that and are willing to risk 0 dollars on it instead of paying Brandon Moss 10 million or so for the same value.

[burlingtonbandit]

Maybe Shatkins thinks Melvin Upton is better than we are giving him credit for? If he plays more like he did when he was with the Padres and puts up a 90 wRC+ (he was 109 and 99 in two different seasons with them) to go with good baserunning and defense he'd be a perfectly fine option as a full-time starter and #9 hitter. That'd get him north of 1.5 WAR which would be fine.

 

Perhaps the Jays think he can do that and are willing to risk 0 dollars on it instead of paying Brandon Moss 10 million or so for the same value.

 

Even with the Padres he still sucked vs RHP.

[Terminator]

Even with the Padres he still sucked vs RHP.

 

In 2016 yes, in 2015 he was very solid. But given that Zeke is his platoon partner his splits may not matter because he can't hit at all. Upton is likely a better defensive player and baserunner on top of it.

[wk680]

Even with the Padres he still sucked vs RHP.

 

Yes but the other problem is being on the LHH side of a platoon, the player gets less than half the AB's. Some players may not thrive in that role, especially one who has been an everyday player throughout his career. Upton's ego is taking a big hit here, and the possibility that he doesn't have his head and heart in it seems pretty high.

[RealAccountant]

I have a feeling Upton will have a huge year because it's a contract Year. The Upton brothers really have good years prior to becoming free agents

[BTS]

In 2016 yes, in 2015 he was very solid. But given that Zeke is his platoon partner his splits may not matter because he can't hit at all. Upton is likely a better defensive player and baserunner on top of it.

 

Upton might be a better player than Carrera, even vs. RHP. He's a very good runner, and is going to provide excellent LF defense.

[Ray]

Steve Selsky DFA'd by the Reds. He's had a decent minor league career and slashed .314/.340/.471 with the Reds last season, albeit in a very limited capacity. Wouldn't mind pick him up instead of someone like Ceciliani for minor league depth.

[glory]

Upton does everything better than Carrera. If those two are the LF tandem, then start Upton and use Zeke as the 4th OF.

[King]

Even so, Pompey has slugged 0.362 in 734 AAA plate appearances. He's probably going to hit like Kevin Pillar, maybe worse. Defense will have to be his carrying tool, and we've seen conflicting reports about how competent he is out there.

 

I don't understand why his power is zapped in AAA. Going back to each level with a significant sample.

 

2011 - R - .146 ISO (184 PA)

2012 - didnt play really

2013 - A - .133 ISO (500+ PA)

2014 - A+ - .152 ISO (317 PA)

2014 - AA - .179 ISO (127 PA)

2015 - AA - .194 ISO (148 PA)

2014/15/16 - MLB - .163 ISO (148 PA)

 

He's been steady with .130-.170 ISO across his entire baseball career over ~1300 PA. Then you get to AAA, and his ISO is .080 spanning ~700 PA. I think his steamer projection of .260/.326/.379 (.119 ISO) is a reasonable projection.

[Spanky99]

I'm not sure if Gurriel will even be given OF reps this year. They'll probably start him in Dunedin as a shortstop, one would think.

 

If (and it's a big if) Gurriel excels in AAA as a shortstop, we could see him given some OF games at AAA and then called up as an OF this year where he could remain until Tulo either breaks down or is traded.

 

Similar to what the Nats did with Trea Turner.

 

I've read that he's starting in AA as a SS, that was from Longenhagen's chat IIRC.

[King]

I've read that he's starting in AA as a SS, that was from Longenhagen's chat IIRC.

 

That's what was said after he was signed. Could be in AA or AAA. It depends on how he does in minor league spring training. If he looks terrible they could keep him at Dunedin.

[Terminator]

Upton might be a better player than Carrera, even vs. RHP. He's a very good runner, and is going to provide excellent LF defense.

 

Yeah that's what I was getting at. Zeke sucks. To me he's a 5th OF in the National League.

 

I'm starting to talk myself in to Upton in LF full-time. Take the good defense and baserunning and hope the bat is 90 wRC+ or higher. Put Zeke on the bench as the 4th OF and Pompey in AAA. If Upton falters, call up Pompey.

 

Give Pearce some LF starts with Smoak at 1B too. Start Zeke as little as possible but he can be used to pinch run, pinch hit/bunt and as a defensive replacement for Bautista, that's not a bad role for him really.

[intentional wok]

I think it's easy to see the Upton trade being similar to the Smoak extension: ensuring an affordable warm body will at least be occupying a field spot should big moves not get made. In this case, Upton at least being a good defender (paid essentially nothing by the org) allowed the team to look at other improvements coming into this offseason. Obviously no one could have really predicted the cratered market, but that's really moot.

 

I think the rationale was fairly sound. Smoak ended up being more of a stumbling block, but I think Upton is still paying dividends because it still keeps the door open for improvements to be made through the season while he puts up okay numbers at no cost. If Upton is the hands-down worst regular on the team, I'm fine with that since he'll at worst probably just tread some water while the rest of the team's talent does its thing until the mid-season market starts up.

[george09]

Stoeten posted a pretty good article addressing our LF situation. He thinks its f***ing nuts that we might have a Zeke/Upton platoon. Here is the bit on the LF situtaion.

 

http://bluejaysnation.com/2017/1/19/ross-atkins-speaks-ostensibly-on-bautista-but-most-interestingly-on-edward-rogers-and-left-field

 

 

 

It is hard to reconcile this with the idea that the Blue Jays want to be good, because that mix is bad.

 

 

 

Upton cannot play against right-handed pitching. He has a 77 wRC+ and a .281 on-base against right-handers over the last two seasons (547 plate appearances), and in the years before that he was awful against everyone, right-handed or left-handed.

 

 

 

Carrera, despite being a left-handed batter, cannot play against right-handers either. He also has a 77 wRC+ over that span (394 PA), and though his .312 OBP is better than Upton's mark, it still's still on the unplayable side of the spectrum. (And before anybody crows about Carrera's solid 2016, please note that his marks in the split were 71 and .307, and despite our playoff memories, his second half produced a terrible .194/.243/.272 slash line. He is bad.)

 

 

 

 

Pearce could be the solution, but for two problems: his lack of durability and playing outfield on the Rogers Centre turf seems a bad mix, and he should be playing primarily at first base regardless because the alternative is playing Justin Smoak there. Smoak's wRC+ against right-handers -- the stronger of his two splits -- is 102 for the last two seasons. It was 99 last season. And overall in the second half of 2016 he produced just a 75 mark. He is also bad. Pearce, meanwhile, despite being a right-handed hitter, has a 113 wRC+ in the split over the last two years, and his mark in 2016 was 118. He should be the club's primary first baseman.

 

 

 

For now, though, this doesn't seem like it will be the case. That leaves a big door open for Pompey, which is certainly not a bad thing. It just would be better, I think, if Pompey was the contingency plan for something a whole lot better than throwing way too many at-bats to Smoak and Carrera.

 

 

 

Perhaps there's something about the defence that those two players bring that the Blue Jays love a whole lot more than the publicly available data would suggest -- and I don't doubt that that's at least a part of their infatuation with Smoak (though I'd bet a bigger part, at this point, is that they signed him to that f***ing extension). Atkins did say during the presser that "we've got to figure out a way to just win more games. As I said at the start of the offseason, there's multiple ways to do that. And there's the picturesque ways to do it, and there's the ways with big names and household names, and sometimes it's more run prevention, and sometimes it's more run scoring. So, we'll consider all of them."

 

Are Carrera and Smoak simply less picturesque options with abilities to help a ballclub win games that it's impossible for us to see? Uh... I'm pretty sure that's a mighty stretch. The truth is, they're bad, and this is a bad plan, and while it won't exactly kill them, it shouldn't be too difficult to get better.

 

"That all said, Atkins wouldn't rule additional moves, and he may simply be not tipping his hand here. If the club is playing hardball with agents or other teams, they're better off acting like they think they've got a reasonable solution in left field, rather than a first baseman and a bunch of pieces that don't really work.

[george09]

If our lineup looked like this we would be pretty good. Bruce does have a 127wRC+ against RHP too.

 

 

 

LF: Upton/Moss/Bruce/Pagan

RF: Bautista

CF: Pillar

1B: Pearce

2B: Travis

3B: Donaldson

SS: Tulo

DH: Morales

C: Martin

 

 

Bench: Carrera, Smoak, Ceciliani, Barney

[Spanky99]

If our lineup looked like this we would be pretty good. Bruce does have a 127wRC+ against RHP too.

 

 

 

LF: Upton/Moss/Bruce/Pagan

RF: Bautista

CF: Pillar

1B: Pearce

2B: Travis

3B: Donaldson

SS: Tulo

DH: Morales

C: Martin

 

 

Bench: Carrera, Smoak, Jiminez, Barney

 

Ftfy

[G-Snarls]

So...

 

For sure:

 

Bautista

Pillar

Upton

Pearce

Morales

Travis

Tulo

Donaldson

Martin

Backup catcher (yet to be signed)

Smoak (or a 1B aquired to replace him, or we get another OF and play Pearce predominantly at 1B)

 

Probably:

 

Barney (our best utility IF)

Carrera (our best backup OF)

 

7 man BP

5 man starting rotation

 

That's 25 guys

 

Odd man out is probably Goins - will they likely put him through waivers? He's out of options

 

Will be hard for Pompey to make the team since he has options and Carerra doesn't and Gibby likes Carerra a lot more

[G-Snarls]

That's an EXTREMELY veteran team with only one starting position player under the age of 28 and most of them in their 30's:

 

Upton 32

Bautista 36

Donaldson 31

Pearce 33

Morales 33

Martin 33

Tulo 32

[Brownie19]

I will predict we claim or trade for Severino Gonzalez who was just DFA'd by the Phillies.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14697&position=P

 

Did his fastball velocity really jump from 89.2 to 93.5 last year? wow. Holy extreme flyball pitcher too!

[Bobthe4th]

So...

 

For sure:

 

Bautista

Pillar

Upton

Pearce

Morales

Travis

Tulo

Donaldson

Martin

Backup catcher (yet to be signed)

Smoak (or a 1B aquired to replace him, or we get another OF and play Pearce predominantly at 1B)

 

Probably:

 

Barney (our best utility IF)

Carrera (our best backup OF)

 

7 man BP

5 man starting rotation

 

That's 25 guys

 

Odd man out is probably Goins - will they likely put him through waivers? He's out of options

 

Will be hard for Pompey to make the team since he has options and Carerra doesn't and Gibby likes Carerra a lot more

 

Goins will probably be claimed by a team that needs a cheap squad player to cover multiple positions and can be used as a late game defensive sub.

 

We don't need that, because we have Barney.

 

Ideally Goins passes through waivers and can be called up when Tulo gets injured. But if he doesn't, then shrug - if he isn't good enough to make the 25 man then it's not a big loss.

[L54]

That's an EXTREMELY veteran team with only one starting position player under the age of 28 and most of them in their 30's:

 

Upton 32

Bautista 36

Donaldson 31

Pearce 33

Morales 33

Martin 33

Tulo 32

 

Devon Travis?

[G-Snarls]

Devon Travis?

 

He's the one under 28 I was referring to

 

Pillar is 28, Travis 25

 

The rest are in their 30's

[z3r0s]

Doesn't look like a dynasty in the making, but I'm pretty comfortable with the lineup. Will need some luck (again) with health in the rotation. Depth is an issue, and we need to sign some BP help.

 

Not the ideal way to enter the season, but we're got as good a shot as most to compete.

[glory]

Edwin is 34, Fowler is 31, Cutch is 30, etc.

 

This team wasn't going to get younger, not with free agency or (realistic) trade targets.

 

Develop some prospects, and the age will go down naturally.

[burlingtonbandit]

Blue Jays actually have a pretty good group of position player prospects. Alford, Tellez, Pompey, Urena all should be knocking on the door the next couple of years.

[Dr. Dinger]

Anybody else wanna get Cruisin' Chris Carter for cheap? He's a big upgrade on Smoak and can platoon a bit with Upton. Pearce RF/1B, Bautista to LF, bing bang boom.