Should we extend Dickey?

[Krylian]

That's why Shapiro is here. He's the saviour. He'll find the right replacement to bring in.

 

I'm just not a knuckleball fan...which is odd cause I remember when the Jays brought Tom Candiotti in as a deadline deal and I thought he was very effective. I have absolutely no faith in Dickey...and I hate feeling that every game he starts will result in a loss.

 

Illogical or not...that's how I feel with him.

[Grant77]

Happ was a good signing for a very reasonable contract. Estrada signed for a very reasonable deal.

 

There are good pitchers to be had every off-season that don't require a bank breaking.

 

Even the biggest Jays fan would admit that we have been lucky with Happ and Estrada. Even the most reasonable contracts signed by the beat executives can backfire and most of them do.

[Krylian]

Even the biggest Jays fan would admit that we have been lucky with Happ and Estrada. Even the most reasonable contracts signed by the beat executives can backfire and most of them do.

 

We have been lucky. But that's the point. You're gonna have to be lucky whether you bring Dickey back or not. I think we'll be lucky to get another "good" season out of Dickey.

[Grant77]

We have been lucky. But that's the point. You're gonna have to be lucky whether you bring Dickey back or not. I think we'll be lucky to get another "good" season out of Dickey.

 

Why do you say that? He's in the midst of his seventh consecutive good (and remarkably healthy) season. Sure age is a factor, but I think you're overstating the concern on a 1-2 year deal.

[L54]

Bring back the Dickster. Those 200 innings are valuable, and likely to come at a discounted price.

[Terminator]

Hear me out. I know we all hate watching him pitch, I know he's boring as f*** in interviews, I know we resent him because we traded Syndergaard to get him, and I know we all hate having Josh Thole on the roster.

 

But over the last calendar year, here are Dickey's numbers:

 

216 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.43 K/BB, 9.4% SwStr

 

Granted, the FIP and xFIP paint a less flattering picture (4.41/4.55), but the same is true of Estrada and we all love him regardless. Objectively, Dickey's been an adequate, mid-rotation innings eater. It might actually make sense to extend Dickey for one year (plus an option, perhaps) for something in the vicinity of $8-10M, and given his situation, I think he'd probably be open to it. When you consider how sparse the free agent market for SP is this coming off-season, I think there's an argument to be made to bring him back for another year.

 

Yep, I've been calling for it all year.

 

And I don't really care what his FIP or xFIP is. He's consistently beaten those numbers the past 7 years. His RA-9 WAR is 10.1 in the three and a half seasons he's been here and when this year is over he should be somewhere between 11 and 12. He's not showing any signs of slowing down really. There is also the "Dickey Factor" which Breaking Blue wrote about.

 

The guy is a very productive player but he also isn't really seen as one so he's prime to return surplus value on an extension.

 

I was hoping for an 8-10 mil extension but I'd be willing to go higher than that or to even give him an extra year.

[Terminator]

What you suggest makes perfect baseball sense.

 

But,

 

I watch baseball for fun. I watch more Jays games than any other team. I hate watching Dickey, and I hate watching Thole. I hope he finishes his career in San Diego and is never seen on my TV again.

 

What exactly makes him so horrible to watch compared to another #5 SP, say someone like Hutchison? I'll agree with you that he hams and eggs it out there but if he's effective he'd be more enjoyable to watch than your normal shitbag #5 wouldn't he?

 

Thole I completely agree with but catching depth in this league is pathetic. Without really looking my guess is that most backups around the league are trash. Having one in Thole who can contribute something doesn't make him good at all, but he's probably equally as bad as a lot of others backstops. I'd definitely look for a better backup next year though for sure. Dickey has used plenty of catchers in his career, we can find one who can catch the knuckleball IMO.

Edited July 13, 2016 by Terminator

[ProfessionalAtBat]

If Thole was better, yes

[intentional wok]

What exactly makes him so horrible to watch compared to another #5 SP, say someone like Hutchison? I'll agree with you that he hams and eggs it out there but if he's effective he'd be more enjoyable to watch than your normal shitbag #5 wouldn't he?

 

Thole I completely agree with but catching depth in this league is pathetic. Without really looking my guess is that most backups around the league are trash. Having one in Thole who can contribute something doesn't make him good at all, but he's probably equally as bad as a lot of others backstops. I'd definitely look for a better backup next year though for sure. Dickey has used plenty of catchers in his career, we can find one who can catch the knuckleball IMO.

 

I've always tried to argue that some knuckleball education could have widened the scope of backup catchers available. I don't see why Thole is such a special talent that he, and only he, can catch this thing. But there's an argument to be made that as volatile as the KB already is, it's still probably better to have a steady, proven guy catch it. Dickey still provides both quality and endurance, so if it costs the roster spot of the backup C to ensure there's a competent and trusted battery mate in the clubhouse... I guess it's fine.

[glory]

Good god, no.

 

He's a perfectly average pitcher who can throw 200 innings, and that's fine, but no. Just no.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Hell f***ing No.... Go on take the 12.8 million and Run!!!

 

Run Run Runaway !!!

 

Thank you Dickey for your service!!!

 

Bye bye Peabody take f***ing Sherman with ya!!! Lol

[BigCecil]

We hate on Thole and him taking up a roster spot. And I get that. But 800k for neg .3 WAR vs Navarro neg .1 WAR for $4mm. I wonder if we make too much of our Thole disdain sometimes. I guess it's because he is tied to RA and all he can do is supposedly catch a KB well. And no, thanks RA but time to move on.

[Zaun of the Dead]

I'd rather sign ricky f***ing romero

[KingKat]

We hate on Thole and him taking up a roster spot. And I get that. But 800k for neg .3 WAR vs Navarro neg .1 WAR for $4mm. I wonder if we make too much of our Thole disdain sometimes. I guess it's because he is tied to RA and all he can do is supposedly catch a KB well. And no, thanks RA but time to move on.

 

Backup catchers generally suck and I can't really see ones who don't lining up for the Dickey gig.

[Governator]

I just know at some point in the future Russell Martin will hit the DL and we will be stuck with Josh Thole for weeks catching Estrada, Sanchez, Stroman... we're catering to our 40yr old #3/#4 because he goes on hot streaks in the summer that just wash out his bad starts from April/May.. making him average. I'd like to end that.

[Dr. Dinger]

I just know at some point in the future Russell Martin will hit the DL and we will be stuck with Josh Thole for weeks catching Estrada, Sanchez, Stroman... we're catering to our 40yr old #3/#4 because he goes on hot streaks in the summer that just wash out his bad starts from April/May.. making him average. I'd like to end that.

 

The same is true of any team. Who do the Giants have if Posey goes down? Who do the Brewers have if they trade Lucroy? Who do the Royals have if Perez gets hurts? Every team is an injury away from playing a bag of s*** full-time. Most teams don't even have an adequate first-string catcher: Only 10 catchers in baseball currently have enough PA to qualify for a batting title.

[Governator]

The same is true of any team. Who do the Giants have if Posey goes down? Who do the Brewers have if they trade Lucroy? Who do the Royals have if Perez gets hurts? Every team is an injury away from playing a bag of s*** full-time. Most teams don't even have an adequate first-string catcher: Only 10 catchers in baseball currently have enough PA to qualify for a batting title.

 

 

Except Thole probably wouldn't be on any MLB roster if it weren't for Dickey... Martin isn't a young buck, he's been playing through some injuries here and there thus far and it's inevitable that it will happen during his contract. Why use the league's worst hitter as his back up?

[Dr. Dinger]

Except Thole probably wouldn't be on any MLB roster if it weren't for Dickey... Martin isn't a young buck, he's been playing through some injuries here and there thus far and it's inevitable that it will happen during his contract. Why use the league's worst hitter as his back up?

 

I hate that lazy-eyed plug as much as anybody, but backup catchers across baseball are equally gross and useless.

[BTS]

The same is true of any team. Who do the Giants have if Posey goes down? Who do the Brewers have if they trade Lucroy? Who do the Royals have if Perez gets hurts? Every team is an injury away from playing a bag of s*** full-time. Most teams don't even have an adequate first-string catcher: Only 10 catchers in baseball currently have enough PA to qualify for a batting title.

 

I dunno, I think you could probably make the argument that Thole is one of the very worst second catchers in the league. Of the teams you list. I'd much rather have Trevor Brown or Martin Maldonado catch 5 days a week than Josh Thole.

[Governator]

I hate that lazy-eyed plug as much as anybody, but backup catchers across baseball are equally gross and useless.

 

Navarro was a positive asset for us last year, they aren't all Thole's level???? Martin is aging, there's a good chance he'll have DL stints in the future and having flexibility outside of him would be ideal. I'd have a different opinion if Dickey wasn't a 1.4 war pitcher...

[Dr. Dinger]

they aren't all Thole's level????

 

Spanky? Is that you?

[nmrch]

Navarro was a positive asset for us last year, they aren't all Thole's level???? Martin is aging, there's a good chance he'll have DL stints in the future and having flexibility outside of him would be ideal. I'd have a different opinion if Dickey wasn't a 1.4 war pitcher...

 

back up catchers are by definition not supposed to be good, it would be a sub optimal distribution of resources if that was the case. This isn't meant for you strictly but the amount of whining about Thole around here is ridiculous, backup catchers don't and are not supposed to move the needle much one way or the other. There are 14 catchers this season so far with negative war who have as many PA's as Thole. Passable catchers who cost nothing are not easy to come buy. Then the question becomes if you want to spend money and resources on these guys.

[BTS]

back up catchers are by definition not supposed to be good, it would be a sub optimal distribution of resources if that was the case. This isn't meant for you strictly but the amount of whining about Thole around here is ridiculous, backup catchers don't and are not supposed to move the needle much one way or the other. There are 14 catchers this season so far with negative war who have as many PA's as Thole. Passable catchers who cost nothing are not easy to come buy. Then the question becomes if you want to spend money and resources on these guys.

 

I kind of think that the second C spot is an easy area to add wins. There always seems to be a Phegley/Ross/Flowers type looking for a home on a cheap 1-2 year deal. Jose Molina is a perfect example of a guy who contributed wins here in a backup role for almost no investment. I'd love to add a strong backup that you can realistically expect to provide value in a backup role, and who could competently play long stretches above replacement level if your starter goes down. With even top catchers topping out a ~130 games a year, having a good catching tandem is great roster management IMO.

[KingKat]

back up catchers are by definition not supposed to be good, it would be improper distribution of resources if that was the case. This isn't meant for you strictly but the amount of whining about Thole is ridiculous, backup catchers don't and are not supposed to move the needle much one way or the other.

 

The gap between Thole and a likely replacement is probably a lot smaller than whatever the theoretical value catching the knuckleball effectively represents. This seems to be the conclusion that the current front office has come to and it's not a very hard one to come to the same conclusion as a fan if you really consider the kind of value a backup catcher brings to the table. I agree that it shouldn't be considered impossible to train a new guy to take over the roll but it's probably not even worth it in 90% of cases.

[Grant77]

Lots of good discussion going on, but I haven't seen the main issue refuted in a convincing manner. Dickey is a consistent 2+ rWAR pitcher (33rd in the league since 2013) and we could use that type of pitcher. It was also calculated that the Dickey effect is worth over 1 WAR.

 

I get why people don't like him and Thole, but it seems like their teammates do and I just want to see the team win above all.

[Terminator]

I dunno, I think you could probably make the argument that Thole is one of the very worst second catchers in the league. Of the teams you list. I'd much rather have Trevor Brown or Martin Maldonado catch 5 days a week than Josh Thole.

 

Pretty sure M Maldanado is a top pitch framer.

[Dr. Dinger]

Lots of good discussion going on, but I haven't seen the main issue refuted in a convincing manner. Dickey is a consistent 2+ rWAR pitcher (33rd in the league since 2013) and we could use that type of pitcher. It was also calculated that the Dickey effect is worth over 1 WAR.

 

I get why people don't like him and Thole, but it seems like their teammates do and I just want to see the team win above all.

 

I was expecting a lot more irrational negativity here, but it seems like objectivity has mostly won the day.

[Terminator]

I kind of think that the second C spot is an easy area to add wins. There always seems to be a Phegley/Ross/Flowers type looking for a home on a cheap 1-2 year deal. Jose Molina is a perfect example of a guy who contributed wins here in a backup role for almost no investment. I'd love to add a strong backup that you can realistically expect to provide value in a backup role, and who could competently play long stretches above replacement level if your starter goes down. With even top catchers topping out a ~140 games a year, having a good catching tandem is great roster management IMO.

 

Yeah the backup C is guaranteed to get a chunk of playing time. Having a good one would be nice, I won't question that.

[Terminator]

I was expecting a lot more irrational negativity here, but it seems like objectivity has mostly won the day.

 

Yeah when Dickey is s***ing the bed in April this conversation is ugly. When he's in midseason form it's mostly yes with some "qualified no's".

[BTS]

Lots of good discussion going on, but I haven't seen the main issue refuted in a convincing manner. Dickey is a consistent 2+ rWAR pitcher (33rd in the league since 2013) and we could use that type of pitcher. It was also calculated that the Dickey effect is worth over 1 WAR.

 

I get why people don't like him and Thole, but it seems like their teammates do and I just want to see the team win above all.

 

I think you can pretty much just disregard both the Dickey effect and Josh Thole when discussing Dickey's value. The opportunity cost of committing to a sub-replacement level backup catcher is probably close to a win if you feel the FO can identify and acquire a 0.5-1 run backup C.

 

The point remains though that Dickey is a durable league average SP and the only valid reason for not wanting him back on a 1/8-10 deal is "I hate watching him".