How much has one start changed your opinion on Aaron Sanchez?

[Olerud363]

Where have I ever said this? I'm only pointing out the statistical possibility.

 

Well it seems you are higher on Sanchez' than most... but maybe this whole thread is just a giant misunderstanding.

 

There are formal ways that you can approach these problems. Not that anyone is really doing that. People are just throwing around words like "ceiling", "ace", "likely" blah, blah, blah...

 

I think the main point I've heard lately is that even though the k-rate looks good he is not getting guys to swing and miss... which is not a good indicator,. We'll see how it all turns out.

[Angrioter]

9K /9 ? 3.15 BB/9... 60% GB seems good to me??!!

 

Poor command, low whiffs rate. So many called K

[Dr. Dinger]

4.26 xFIP as a starter

3.15 xFIP as a reliever

 

3.02 xFIP as a starter this year. Improvement is possible. To what extent this improvement is sustainable remains to be seen.

[Laika]

Regardless, we can all agree that the Blue Jays LIVE OR DIE with Aaron Sanchez.

[Tester]

Poor command, low whiffs rate. So many called K

 

Yeah, it's early

[Dr. Dinger]

Poor command, low whiffs rate. So many called K

 

Whiffs don't always correlate precisely with K rate, although they're the best predictor of future K rate. Not every pitcher throws every pitch intending a swing and miss, Sanchez is oriented towards grounders and mostly goes to his whiff pitches (curve, change) in 2-strike counts. If he stays around 8-9% whiffs, we can probably expect his K rate to land in the 7-7.5 per 9 range, which is probably what most of us expect anyway. That's just fine.

[Dr. Dinger]

Regardless, we can all agree that the Blue Jays LIVE OR DIE with Aaron Sanchez.

 

I don't agree with that at all, actually. I pretty much consider Sanchez house money at this point.

[Laika]

I don't agree with that at all, actually. I pretty much consider Sanchez house money at this point.

 

- samesies

- House Money is a great nickname for him

 

Stro Show and House Money

[Angrioter]

Whiffs don't always correlate precisely with K rate, although they're the best predictor of future K rate. Not every pitcher throws every pitch intending a swing and miss, Sanchez is oriented towards grounders and mostly goes to his whiff pitches (curve, change) in 2-strike counts. If he stays around 8-9% whiffs, we can probably expect his K rate to land in the 7-7.5 per 9 range, which is probably what most of us expect anyway. That's just fine.

 

2015 Whiffs top10

1. Clayton Kershaw 15.90%
   
2. Max Scherzer 15.30%
   
3. Chris Sale 14.60%
   
4. Francisco Liriano 14.30%
   
5. Carlos Carrasco 14.00%
   
6. Cole Hamels 13.30%
   
7. Corey Kluber 12.90%
   
8. Chris Archer 12.80%
   
9. Jacob deGrom 12.70%
   
10. Madison Bumgarner 12.5 %
    

 

 

2015 Whiffs bot 10

1. Mark Buehrle 5.20%
   
2. Mike Pelfrey 5.60%
   
3. Jon Niese 5.80%
   
4. Dan Haren 6.20%
   
5. Mike Leake 6.30%
   
6. Bartolo Colon 6.40%
   
7. Yovani Gallardo 6.50%
   
8. Brett Anderson 7.00%
   
9. Chris Tillman 7.10%
   
10. Aaron Harang 7.30%
    

[Cyborg]

Regardless, we can all agree that the Blue Jays LIVE OR DIE with Aaron Sanchez.

 

We live or die with Sanchez, Estrada, and Dickey having low ERAs.

[Laika]

We live or die with Sanchez, Estrada, and Dickey having low ERAs.

 

Who should we sacrifice to the BABIP dragon this year?

[Angrioter]

Who should we sacrifice to the BABIP dragon this year?

Jays sacrifices Travis

[Laika]

Jays sacrifices Travis

 

Congratulations, you just volunteered.

 

Ummm... can we borrow the ritual sacrifice dagger of your peoples?

[Angrioter]

Congratulations, you just volunteered.

 

Ummm... can we borrow the ritual sacrifice dagger of your peoples?

 

You should change provider.

http://assets.hightimes.com/dolphin-weed.gif

[Cyborg]

Who should we sacrifice to the BABIP dragon this year?

Well Hutch was sacrificed last year. Maybe we can sacrifice Goins.

[admin]

No he didn't

 

You're right, wasn't as good as I thought.

I think what I meant more so were his L/R splits, from when I remember following him. And his amazingly low hit rates.

Look at his 2012-2013 combined, including fallball, 200IP, 148 hits, that's pretty impressive.

Versus lefties in 2012, 46IP 15H 57K. The potential is/was obviously always there.

[Boxcar]

Who should we sacrifice to the BABIP dragon this year?

 

Grant

[Jimcanuck]

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.

 

you're wrong... all stats / correlations/ empirical formulas are based on a data distribution

[GD]

you're wrong... all stats / correlations/ empirical formulas are based on a data distribution

 

Stats fight between Bill James of pavement against water chemical boy? sign me up

[Angrioter]

Poor command, low whiffs rate. So many called K

 

We're seeing the main reason for what the Whiffs are important.

[THANOS]

We're seeing the main reason for what the Whiffs are important.

 

Definitely, but knowing Walker, Stro, Sanchez, and Martin, the wrong message will be received from this game.

[glory]

Definitely, but knowing Walker, Stro, Sanchez, and Martin, the wrong message will be received from this game.

 

"See what happens when you try to strike people out? More ground balls, Aaron." - Blue Jays pitching philosophy pre-Shapiro.

[Cyborg]

Stats fight between Bill James of pavement against water chemical boy? sign me up

 

I can do pavement too.

[nextyear]

Yesterdays game with Sanchez against A's changed my opinion of Sanchez; prior to that I was impressed by Sanchez. In the interview after the game he brought up the fact that double plays weren't made, however, in reality Sanchez needed double plays because he put so many hitters on base. Sanchez's sourpuss face is really starting to annoy me.

 

With Colabello being suspended, it makes me wonder how Sanchez was able to add 25 pounds of muscle to his body in 4 short months; it can be done naturally through hard work but usually not within 4 months.

[ProfessionalAtBat]

Yesterdays game with Sanchez against A's changed my opinion of Sanchez; prior to that I was impressed by Sanchez. In the interview after the game he brought up the fact that double plays weren't made, however, in reality Sanchez needed double plays because he put so many hitters on base. Sanchez's sourpuss face is really starting to annoy me.

 

With Colabello being suspended, it makes me wonder how Sanchez was able to add 25 pounds of muscle to his body in 4 short months; it can be done naturally through hard work but usually not within 4 months.

 

Adding 25 pounds in 4 months at his age is definitely possible. However adding 25 pounds of lean mass is impossible.

 

He never claimed of adding 25 pounds of pure muscle

[Maahfaace]

Yesterdays game with Sanchez against A's changed my opinion of Sanchez; prior to that I was impressed by Sanchez. In the interview after the game he brought up the fact that double plays weren't made, however, in reality Sanchez needed double plays because he put so many hitters on base. Sanchez's sourpuss face is really starting to annoy me.

 

You love him....you can't stop saying his name!

[BlueJayWay]

Getting worse as the facial hair grows.

[Sorrow]

Getting worse as the facial hair grows.

 

You mean you don't like Baron Sanchez?

 

To nextyear, he never claimed to have added 25lbs of muscle, just 25lbs. The reporters in Toronto claimed he added 25lbs of muscle.

[Maahfaace]

It is rather peculiar with how poorly he commanded his fastball in yesterday's start that he only walked one batter (HBP excluded). Just about every sinker was up in the zone, a recipe to fail with his pitch usage.

 

On the plus side his curve looked decent at times, and we saw a few change ups. (Hate saying this but tabler is right, he throws it to hard). The change looks like it needs alot of work still, he's erratic with it and really has a noticeable delivery change that batters will pick up on easily if he starts to use it more. He's still got a long way to go developing those secondary pitches, but the lack of any command of his fastball is somewhat alarming and reeks of Sanchez starts from last season.

[RealAccountant]

Yesterdays game with Sanchez against A's changed my opinion of Sanchez; prior to that I was impressed by Sanchez. In the interview after the game he brought up the fact that double plays weren't made, however, in reality Sanchez needed double plays because he put so many hitters on base. Sanchez's sourpuss face is really starting to annoy me.

 

With Colabello being suspended, it makes me wonder how Sanchez was able to add 25 pounds of muscle to his body in 4 short months; it can be done naturally through hard work but usually not within 4 months.

 

FFS they are all on PEDs, every single MLB player. Some of them are stupid enough to get caught.