General 2016 Blue Jays discussion thread

[G-Snarls]

IIRC I think the rule was changed after TB tried to buy their way into Cooperstown through Boggs. Could have been Clemens with the Yankees as well. I dunno, the late 90's/early 2000's was such an immoral time for the MLB

 

LOL

 

Yes because the Yankees are so short of hall of famers...

 

Tampa has no one I presume?

[fatcowxlive]

I'd take a 3rd WS ring over individual awards times infinity(that's what my kid says). The individual stuff means little to me after the black hole from 94-2014 where all we had to get behind were some individual honours. 2015 reminded me of what it's all about and i'm hungry for that kind of excitement again this year.

 

Clemens did back to back Cy Young's, he's barely mentioned. Individual awards are no where near as valuable to a city as championships.

I agree sorry I mean in terms of team achievements, other than the 2 WS this would be up there if he wins back to back

Fatcow, you should celebrate greatness for the sake of it and for what it means to you, not in response to what some sportswriters thing about it.

 

The team achieving its goal obviously means much more than a bunch of sportswriters agreeing on how the term "valuable" should be applied.

 

Of course I agree with you, but it feels that much better when the people who are usually critical of us are forced to agree, it's like a personal victory type of thing

[fatcowxlive]

Alomar spent only 5 years here. Assuming the Jays let Donaldson run out his contract he'll have 4 here, a couple of years in Oakland and presumably several more years somewhere else that won't be as good as his run here. If he was to be inducted into the HOF with, say, 70 WAR and 30-35 of it was achieved with the Jays, isn't that enough to slot his entry as a Jay?

 

Yes and a ring would cement that.

[BTS]

LOL

 

Yes because the Yankees are so short of hall of famers...

 

Tampa has no one I presume?

 

Evan Longoria will be their first.

[KingKat]

It's supposedly a result of Wade Boggs trying to sell his cap rights to the Rays.

 

Jays are certainly the odds-on favourites here.

 

I thought it was because of Winfield accepting compensation for going in as a Padre.

[Stangstag]

Guys, I really don't think Donaldson will be in HoF talks. He started his career way too late. Donaldson has as good a chance of being in the HoF as Bautista.

[G-Snarls]

Guys, I really don't think Donaldson will be in HoF talks. He started his career way too late. Donaldson has as good a chance of being in the HoF as Bautista.

 

I'd say they're better than that

 

Donaldson broke out with a 7.6 WAR season at age 27 and has kept up that pace for 4 straight years including this one. He's 30 now.

 

Bautista broke out AT age 30 and has had off years (2012 and probably this one) and he's 35 so you're right he has no real shot

 

I'd give Donaldson a legitimate shot but yes, it's easier to acculate HOF credentials if you start off really young like Trout, Harper, Griffey et al

Edited July 6, 2016 by G-Snarls

[Terminator]

Guys, I really don't think Donaldson will be in HoF talks. He started his career way too late. Donaldson has as good a chance of being in the HoF as Bautista.

 

He's making up for that lost time by being one of the Top 5 players in baseball for 4 years in a row now and is as strong as ever. In other words he may or may not have the longevity that most HoFers have but he'll probably be able to match most of their peaks. If the Jays win the division he may repeat as MVP. He should be able to produce around this rate through this season and his age 31 and 32 seasons.

 

At that point he'll probably have around 45-47 WAR. He definitely has a shot to get to 60+. I think it's doable for him to get to the HoF.

 

Another interesting question is does he sign an extension here? I believe we have him through his age 32 season. We will see if Shatkins is going to want to spend 250-300 million on a 33 year old player.

[G-Snarls]

Out of curiosity I looked up the shoo-in HOF guys who are later in careers - Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols both broke out by age 21/22 as well.

 

So yeah, anyone who waits until 27 to break out has an uphill climb that's for sure

[G-Snarls]

Controversy generator

 

FWIW, if Donaldson keeps it up this year and posts a WAR > 7.5, he will already have 3 seasons in which he has posted WAR all better than Miggy's single best year ever

 

Defense is a thing and most voters will hopefully know it nowadays and when these guys are eligible

[Brownie19]

Out of curiosity I looked up the shoo-in HOF guys who are later in careers - Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols both broke out by age 21/22 as well.

 

So yeah, anyone who waits until 27 to break out has an uphill climb that's for sure

 

Debatable how old Pujols really is. Based on current results - he looks like he's going on 45.

[Terminator]

Out of curiosity I looked up the shoo-in HOF guys who are later in careers - Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols both broke out by age 21/22 as well.

 

So yeah, anyone who waits until 27 to break out has an uphill climb that's for sure

 

Yeah the risk is you follow a Pujols aging curve and your production steeply declines at age 32-33. In Donaldson's case he'd only have about 5 years (as opposed to 10) to build his credentials before having to rely on just building up his counting stats like Pujols is currently doing.

 

A guy who didn't really get started until he was 27 but I think will get in is Ortiz. He may or may not be worthy due to him being a DH during the steroid era but he wasn't really a great player until age 27 but then had 13 really good seasons. His personality and his team also play a factor in him getting in so he's not a perfect comparison to Donaldson at all but he did get a late start.

[Brownie19]

Out of curiosity I looked up the shoo-in HOF guys who are later in careers - Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols both broke out by age 21/22 as well.

 

So yeah, anyone who waits until 27 to break out has an uphill climb that's for sure

 

Miggy falls into the Frank Thomas / Manny category....some of the best hitters of all time (not best players of all time). Pujols could play great defense and run the bases back in his prime.

 

 

Speaking of which - is Manny a HOFer? or does he fall into the suspected roid user - blackballed category?

[BTS]

He's making up for that lost time by being one of the Top 5 players in baseball for 4 years in a row now and is as strong as ever. In other words he may or may not have the longevity that most HoFers have but he'll probably be able to match most of their peaks. If the Jays win the division he may repeat as MVP. He should be able to produce around this rate through this season and his age 31 and 32 seasons.

 

At that point he'll probably have around 45-47 WAR. He definitely has a shot to get to 60+. I think it's doable for him to get to the HoF.

 

Another interesting question is does he sign an extension here? I believe we have him through his age 32 season. We will see if Shatkins is going to want to spend 250-300 million on a 33 year old player.

 

I wonder if he'd be willing to tear up next year's deal for an extension. Something like 8/250 is a lot more palatable if it's his 31-38 seasons than if it's 33-40.

[KingKat]

Third base is under represented in the HOF. Assuming he keeps this up, Donaldson should make the Hall in part to correct that but that doesn't mean he will though you have to figure that generally speaking, over time, 3B will get a fairer shake as voters gain a better appreciation for the position on the defensive spectrum.

[Terminator]

Miggy falls into the Frank Thomas / Manny category....some of the best hitters of all time (not best players of all time). Pujols could play great defense and run the bases back in his prime.

 

 

Speaking of which - is Manny a HOFer? or does he fall into the suspected roid user - blackballed category?

 

Good question. The steroid s*** is so subjective but I don't think Manny gets in.

 

Ortiz had a positive test but my guess is he gets in still.

[Stangstag]

Good question. The steroid s*** is so subjective but I don't think Manny gets in.

 

Ortiz had a positive test but my guess is he gets in still.

 

If Ortiz gets into the HoF, then anyone who voted for him and not Bonds should kill themselves.

[Terminator]

I wonder if he'd be willing to tear up next year's deal for an extension. Something like 8/250 is a lot more palatable if it's his 31-38 seasons than if it's 33-40.

 

Yeah for sure. If he's still kicking ass at an elite level from 31-34 which is entirely possible the Jays could get some decent surplus value in those year to offset the latter years which may not be an entire loss from age 35-38.

 

But there is a very good chance that 39 and 40 will be lost years and it'd be tough to eat a massive deal like that.

[Terminator]

If Ortiz gets into the HoF, then anyone who voted for him and not Bonds should kill themselves.

 

I agree but it's just a hunch that I have.

 

Ortiz is so well liked and he played in Boston where he won 3 WS and broke the curse. I just think he has all these outside factors that propel his fringe candidacy in despite the positive test.

[Brownie19]

Third base is under represented in the HOF. Assuming he keeps this up, Donaldson should make the Hall in part to correct that but that doesn't mean he will though you have to figure that generally speaking, over time, 3B will get a fairer shake as voters gain a better appreciation for the position on the defensive spectrum.

 

Chipper and Beltre will help balance it out a bit soon. Longoria eventually.

[KingKat]

Chipper and Beltre will help balance it out a bit soon. Longoria eventually.

 

Rolen has a solid case but he won't get in. Heck, I'm not even sure if he's still on the ballot.

 

http://www.redreporter.com/2014/9/26/6845013/scott-rolen-hall-of-fame

[intentional wok]

JD is at 5.1 WAR already, according to Fangraphs. wat

[Terminator]

Rolen has a solid case but he won't get in. Heck, I'm not even sure if he's still on the ballot.

 

http://www.redreporter.com/2014/9/26/6845013/scott-rolen-hall-of-fame

 

Yeah I agree he does have a solid case but I also think he won't get in. He isn't eligible yet though as he played as recently as 2012.

[KingKat]

What? It hasn't been five years yet. He is a Hall of Famer and will be inducted.

 

O.K. I knew I should have done some research into it but I was being very lazy.

[Jimcanuck]

Going by WAR/game if my mental math is correct:

 

Donaldson

Bautista

Devo (the original)

McGriff

Barfield

[Boxcar]

Yeah the risk is you follow a Pujols aging curve and your production steeply declines at age 32-33. In Donaldson's case he'd only have about 5 years (as opposed to 10) to build his credentials before having to rely on just building up his counting stats like Pujols is currently doing.

 

A guy who didn't really get started until he was 27 but I think will get in is Ortiz. He may or may not be worthy due to him being a DH during the steroid era but he wasn't really a great player until age 27 but then had 13 really good seasons. His personality and his team also play a factor in him getting in so he's not a perfect comparison to Donaldson at all but he did get a late start.

 

If Martinez doesn't get in, there's absolutely no way Ortiz should.

[Terminator]

If Martinez doesn't get in, there's absolutely no way Ortiz should.

 

I agree but Ortiz has the rings, played in a top market, the grandiose personality, more eye-popping counting stats (i.e. will have about 540 homers to Edgar's 309), may have less of a logjam to get through, etc.

[glory]

Jays now have the second highest run differential in the AL (behind Cleveland) @ +62.

 

The team Shapiro left and the team Shapiro is on.

 

Sportsnet comments section in shambles.

[Terminator]

The team Shapiro left and the team Shapiro is on.

 

Sportsnet comments section in shambles.

 

I'm really glad we have Shapiro. He knows what he's doing.

[West Texas Forever]

Bunch of bangers.

http://i.imgur.com/EkcR0jF.jpg