Sanchez Projection March 2016

[Jimcanuck]

Let's put this debate to rest.......... until his next appearance

[Grant77]

I believe he is a viable MLB starter, disregarding the extraneous number labels. He's already at least this good with some potential:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=412&position=P

[Grant77]

Also, what's with the bottom 2 options? He's been an elite reliever over 60 innings, period. Maybe that changes, but he can't be a bust, it's already in the books.

[Boxcar]

Should have been the option to pick "this poll is stupid and pointless" because it is. Really, it's a pea brained competition for a bunch of idiots to take a random guess at something they have no way of determining for certain so that later people who "got it right" can say "hur hur u pict da rong 1 u dum!!!1!"

 

So I hope that Sanchez becomes a #2 so that the Jays get better and you can receive the validation you obviously so sorely crave.

[Key22]

Big Big arm - Ace arm.

 

It all comes down to whether he and his trainers and coaches can get his command and control in check. If he does that there is no reason he can't be a top 20 MLB pitcher. But that's easier said than done. The league is littered with big arms that went nowhere. Still he has wipe out stuff and his fastball is excellent in terms of speed and movement. There's a lot to like. Not sure why people get on him. He's still young - still has lots of room to improve. The guy is 22 and held his own as a starter and more than that as a reliever. People expect these guys to walk in being perfect. Even Mr. Greinke looked pretty awful at 21-22. More awful than Mr. Sanchez. You can go down long lists of guys who wound up being quite good but stunk before the age of 24. And sure Minor leagues he walked people - well those are minor league umpires who maybe can't see 98mph with big movement the same way MLB umpires can see them (perhaps). maybe the minor league catchers suck at pitch framing. Maybe the mounds are crap - I mean Saunders stepped on a sprinkler sitting in the outfield WTF!!!!! Maybe Sanchez nibbles corners because the guys behind him field like the Maple Leafs play hockey. So you try and get the strike-out. In Toronto you kind of just have to keep them in the park and someone will hoover it up.

 

If Sanchez managed to be a top of the rotation starter this year - that's a game changer (if everyone stays healthy). And if we get lucky and Floyd rebounds to be his above average self then we have a nice underrated little rotation. I have not seen the games as I live overseas but from the numbers it looks like Sanchez, Stroman, Dickey, Happ, and Floyd have all pitched reasonably well so far in spring. It's only spring but they're not getting hammered.

[King]

Big Big arm - Ace arm.

 

It all comes down to whether he and his trainers and coaches can get his command and control in check. If he does that there is no reason he can't be a top 20 MLB pitcher. But that's easier said than done. The league is littered with big arms that went nowhere. Still he has wipe out stuff and his fastball is excellent in terms of speed and movement. There's a lot to like. Not sure why people get on him. He's still young - still has lots of room to improve. The guy is 22 and held his own as a starter and more than that as a reliever. People expect these guys to walk in being perfect. Even Mr. Greinke looked pretty awful at 21-22. More awful than Mr. Sanchez. You can go down long lists of guys who wound up being quite good but stunk before the age of 24. And sure Minor leagues he walked people - well those are minor league umpires who maybe can't see 98mph with big movement the same way MLB umpires can see them (perhaps). maybe the minor league catchers suck at pitch framing. Maybe the mounds are crap - I mean Saunders stepped on a sprinkler sitting in the outfield WTF!!!!! Maybe Sanchez nibbles corners because the guys behind him field like the Maple Leafs play hockey. So you try and get the strike-out. In Toronto you kind of just have to keep them in the park and someone will hoover it up.

 

If Sanchez managed to be a top of the rotation starter this year - that's a game changer (if everyone stays healthy). And if we get lucky and Floyd rebounds to be his above average self then we have a nice underrated little rotation. I have not seen the games as I live overseas but from the numbers it looks like Sanchez, Stroman, Dickey, Happ, and Floyd have all pitched reasonably well so far in spring. It's only spring but they're not getting hammered.

 

http://i.imgur.com/ORETsvC.gif

[Spanky99]

S'up... King's cool.

[Jimcanuck]

Should have been the option to pick "this poll is stupid and pointless" because it is. Really, it's a pea brained competition for a bunch of idiots to take a random guess at something they have no way of determining for certain so that later people who "got it right" can say "hur hur u pict da rong 1 u dum!!!1!"

 

So I hope that Sanchez becomes a #2 so that the Jays get better and you can receive the validation you obviously so sorely crave.

 

you are such a negative nancy, reflective of your emotional intelligence. posters make projections on here all the time, yourself included.

[gruber92]

s'up... King's cool.

 

lol..

[Boxcar]

you are such a negative nancy, reflective of your emotional intelligence. posters make projections on here all the time, yourself included.

 

Oh? What are your "projections" based on? Call it what it is, a blind guess.

[Jimcanuck]

Oh? What are your "projections" based on? Call it what it is, a blind guess.

 

40 years of watching baseball

[TheHurl]

We are supposed to project his March 2016 role? Worst poll ever!

[Olerud363]

Let's put this debate to rest.......... until his next appearance

 

I am not sure how this wlll put the debate to rest. You will get a probability histogram of potential outcomes. Perhaps this will lead to polite exchanges

 

JimCanuck - He will be an ace

 

The hive - Mr. Canuck, your recent poll indicated that Mr. Sanchez only has a 12% chance of becoming an ace, at least according to the people. The efficient market theory states that our collective wisdom will converge on the true probability distribution of potential outcomes. The only caveat would be if you have access to deep learning models that the general public does not. - Thank you for your continued contributions.

[The Cats Ass]

We all know he's gonna be an ace!

[Nafro]

He's the clear front runner for the 2016 Spring Training Cy Young Award.

[Angrioter]

http://s.quickmeme.com/img/cc/cc95db9273bc7b2b28d3d51397a28eaf9e186936194113395d86da9ba0445331.jpg

[BTS]

He's the clear front runner for the 2016 Spring Training Cy Young Award.

 

The Buck Coats trophy.

[BTS]

The most probable outcome is probably somewhere in the range of middle reliever and good SP4.

[Sammy225]

The Buck Coats trophy.

 

Might even win the Gabe Gross MVP tropthy

[Nafro]

The most probable outcome is probably somewhere in the range of middle reliever and good SP4.

 

I would agree with this. I hope he exceeds my expectations. We will know ten years from now for sure. As long as he's a Jay, I will cheer for him to succeed.

[Dick_Pole]

The most probable outcome is probably somewhere in the range of middle reliever and good SP4.

 

This is the most probable outcome for any random pitcher remotely considered MLB material. I'm guessing that's the point BTS was trying to make.

[Dick_Pole]

I think a good break even point on Sanchez is Jesse Litsch. One good year as a starter and a few mediocre relief years before eating himself out of the league. If he can do better than that he's beaten his mediocre expectations. At least with Sanchez it'll take a few years of putting on 25 pounds a year before he'll be too obese to pitch.

[Boxcar]

I think a good break even point on Sanchez is Jesse Litsch. One good year as a starter and a few mediocre relief years before eating himself out of the league. If he can do better than that he's beaten his mediocre expectations. At least with Sanchez it'll take a few years of putting on 25 pounds a year before he'll be too obese to pitch.

 

Harsh on Litsch. What happened to him was beyond his control and a moderate tragedy.

 

I feel bad for the way daddy Litsch was treated on the old board.

[BillBucknorslegs]

I voted SP4/SP5 as I think this is his ceiling potential. I would be thrilled if he proved me wrong.

[Brownie19]

Big Big arm - Ace arm.

 

 

I question why people keep saying he has a "big arm"...what do they mean by that? At this point, all this "big arm" can do is throw a hard sinker with movement. It's a good pitch, but I'm not even convinced it's a great pitch as it doesn't miss a lot of bats (6.5% SwStr%) and these days - everyone throws "hard".

 

Like Sanchez, Jake McGee and Sean Doolittle both throw primarily fastballs. Neither seem to have (by eye) as much movement as Sanchez's sinker, yet McGee's gets over 10% SwStr% and Doolittle is at 13.5% SwStr%. Those are elite fastballs.

 

Sanchez has likely been trying to develop secondary pitches since he was 16 and has yet to find anything he can throw at a league average level....is that what a "big arm" is to people? For me - a "big arm" is someone with elite pitches who's still developing his control/command.

 

Another thought is - why isn't Sanchez's fastball elite? Is it the poor command? Sanchez really reminds me of Brandon League.

Edited March 14, 2016 by Brownie19

[BTS]

I question why people keep saying he has a "big arm"...what do they mean by that? At this point, all this "big arm" can do is throw a hard a hard sinker with movement. It's a good pitch, but I'm not even convinced it's a great pitch as it doesn't miss a lot of bats (6.5% SwStr%) and these days - everyone throws "hard".

 

Like Sanchez, Jake McGee and Sean Doolittle both throw primarily fastballs. Neither seem to have (by eye) as much movement as Sanchez's sinker, yet McGee's gets over 10% SwStr% and Doolittle is at 13.5% SwStr%. Those are elite fastballs.

 

Sanchez has likely been trying to develop secondary pitches since he was 16 and has yet to find anything he can throw at even an average level....is that what a "big arm" is to people? For me - a "big arm" is someone with elite pitches who's still developing his control/command.

 

Another thought is - why isn't Sanchez's fastball elite? Is it the poor command? Sanchez really reminds me of Brandon League.

 

Brandon League is a very good comp. I'm surprised it hasn't been thrown around more.

[Boxcar]

Brandon League is a very good comp. I'm surprised it hasn't been thrown around more.

 

I remember hearing that comp before and agreed. I remember watching League and being blown away with his stuff but never understood why he struggled to get swings and misses.

[John_Havok]

I question why people keep saying he has a "big arm"...what do they mean by that? At this point, all this "big arm" can do is throw a hard a hard sinker with movement. It's a good pitch, but I'm not even convinced it's a great pitch as it doesn't miss a lot of bats (6.5% SwStr%) and these days - everyone throws "hard".

 

Like Sanchez, Jake McGee and Sean Doolittle both throw primarily fastballs. Neither seem to have (by eye) as much movement as Sanchez's sinker, yet McGee's gets over 10% SwStr% and Doolittle is at 13.5% SwStr%. Those are elite fastballs.

 

Sanchez has likely been trying to develop secondary pitches since he was 16 and has yet to find anything he can throw at even an average level....is that what a "big arm" is to people? For me - a "big arm" is someone with elite pitches who's still developing his control/command.

 

Another thought is - why isn't Sanchez's fastball elite? Is it the poor command? Sanchez really reminds me of Brandon League.

 

People equate "big arm" with velocity.

 

As for why his fastball isn't elite, yeah...poor command is pretty much it plus the fact that he has nothing hard that breaks to his glove side (apparantly he's working on a cutter which could partially help to solve that)

 

Basically, batters know if it's hard, it's moving arm side and they can lay off quite easily on pitches that he might get swings on if it wasn't so predictable.

[BTS]

I remember hearing that comp before and agreed. I remember watching League and being blown away with his stuff but never understood why he struggled to get swings and misses.

 

IIRC their situations were basically identical: young guy with big GB-inducing fastball and tons of movement that couldn't find useful secondary pitches and didn't strike people out. We all debated his future as a starter, but he didn't end up improving at all and flamed out pretty quickly.

[Laika]

I question why people keep saying he has a "big arm"...what do they mean by that? At this point, all this "big arm" can do is throw a hard a hard sinker with movement. It's a good pitch, but I'm not even convinced it's a great pitch as it doesn't miss a lot of bats (6.5% SwStr%) and these days - everyone throws "hard".

 

Like Sanchez, Jake McGee and Sean Doolittle both throw primarily fastballs. Neither seem to have (by eye) as much movement as Sanchez's sinker, yet McGee's gets over 10% SwStr% and Doolittle is at 13.5% SwStr%. Those are elite fastballs.

 

Sanchez has likely been trying to develop secondary pitches since he was 16 and has yet to find anything he can throw at even an average level....is that what a "big arm" is to people? For me - a "big arm" is someone with elite pitches who's still developing his control/command.

 

Another thought is - why isn't Sanchez's fastball elite? Is it the poor command? Sanchez really reminds me of Brandon League.

 

It's unfair to just look at swstr%. The sinker is a weak contact / groundball pitch, generally. The guys who get lots of fastball whiffs tend to throw four seamers up in the zone, and it's the optical rise in conjunction with the velocity that generates whiffs. For whatever mechanical reason, Sanchez doesn't seem to be physically able to throw a straight four seam fastball.

 

But his fastball is a "big pitch". He can possibly survive in the MLB as a well above average reliever with just the one pitch. It generates lots of weak contact and groundballs even with nothing else in the arsenal.

 

If you look at the weighted (per pitch) outcome based value of all MLB pitches from 2014-2015 (minimum 100 innings per person), Sanchez' fastball is 13th on the list. It's up there with elite relievers like Betances, Kimbrel, Jansen. Close to Chapman, who is 7th. Effectively tied with Kershaw and Arrieta. (side note - Stroman is 9th).

 

Sanchez has a double plus fastball. It is a pretty elite pitch. So it is a "big arm". The issue with him is basically everything else.