Kenta Maeda

[DuckDuckGose]

I wanted to discuss why Maeda should be the prime target for the Jays in 2015. My apologies if it's already been discussed (I didn't see a thread) in the offseason thread or elsewhere.

 

Firstly, the posting process has changed and now there is a max posting fee of $20M. Maeda will have multiple teams in at the max but the Jays would get in to the bidding with zero risk ($20M is returned if he fails to sign with the team) and limited competition. Maeda projects to be a number two SP but will cost around the same as other #'s who have who have recently signed (J Zimm got 5yrs $110M and I think he's a good comparison) without requiring compensation and with less teams bidding.

 

Talking about adding a 28yo #2 SP for ~$100M-$120M total investment. Seems like a perfect fit for the Jays IMO.

[King]

Does anyone know when the last day to bid a posting fee is?

[skirbs11]

If we got him for 120 all in with his contract and posting fee I would jump all over it. We would have to move the likes of revere and dickey to afford him but if they were moved for some cheaper bull pen help I think it would be worth it. Would also explore possibly trading Smoak to maybe Milwaukee who is looking for a 1st basemen.

 

I would 100% prefer this route then overpaying in a trade to land carrasco, salazar or Ross.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think he's a good target. That said I think he gets more $ than the Jays are willing to pay.

[KingKat]

I really don't see what recruiting advantage the Jays might have here. They likely don't have deep enough pockets to offer Maeda more money than other teams making a bid and they don't really seem like an attractive destination for a Japanese free agent. Their brand isn't well know in Japan and other than Kawasaki who might be brought back as AAA filler, they won't have any potential Japanese teammates for him. I'm not opposed to making a bid but it seems pretty pointless.

[Sammy225]

Here is the thing and its a big thing.... There will be multiple teams bid 20M posting fee so he is going to get to choose who he negotiates with before even knowing what other teams will pay him. There have been reports i will try to find that he wants to be on the west coast Geography is not with Toronto in that case... It is nice to bid on him but he is going to have a choice to make and it sounds like San Fran is very interested in him

[Thomas Malthus]

In the words of a presumably legendary poster here: "It never hurts to ask"

[DuckDuckGose]

Does anyone know when the last day to bid a posting fee is?

 

I think you have a week from the official posting (so Friday the 18th) to match the posting fee ($20M in this case) and then a month from the posting date (so Jan 10th) to negotiate.

[Pendleton]

It's worth a try with this saturated pitching market, but I can't see us being one of his preferred destinations.

[Terminator]

I really don't see what recruiting advantage the Jays might have here. They likely don't have deep enough pockets to offer Maeda more money than other teams making a bid and they don't really seem like an attractive destination for a Japanese free agent. Their brand isn't well know in Japan and other than Kawasaki who might be brought back as AAA filler, they won't have any potential Japanese teammates for him. I'm not opposed to making a bid but it seems pretty pointless.

 

Yeah that's good analysis. We don't really offer him much meaning we'd have to offer him more money than anyone else and I don't see that happening.

[DuckDuckGose]

I really don't see what recruiting advantage the Jays might have here. They likely don't have deep enough pockets to offer Maeda more money than other teams making a bid and they don't really seem like an attractive destination for a Japanese free agent. Their brand isn't well know in Japan and other than Kawasaki who might be brought back as AAA filler, they won't have any potential Japanese teammates for him. I'm not opposed to making a bid but it seems pretty pointless.

 

Normally a #2 pitcher w/o compensation would have at least half the league interested in them. Maeda will have 5 or so teams in on him and a few of them will not be contenders like the Jays. IMO of the true contenders the Jays, Giants and Dodgers will be interested. Obviously West Coast has an advantage w/ Japanese players but a little extra money can close the gap. LAD is in the luxury tax so the Jays should have an advantage there. The Giants will have a hard time making the playoffs so the Jays should have an advantage there.

[DuckDuckGose]

Here is the thing and its a big thing.... There will be multiple teams bid 20M posting fee so he is going to get to choose who he negotiates with before even knowing what other teams will pay him. There have been reports i will try to find that he wants to be on the west coast Geography is not with Toronto in that case... It is nice to bid on him but he is going to have a choice to make and it sounds like San Fran is very interested in him

 

He has already said he's open to any city. He prefers the West Coast (way closer to Japan) but he's not limiting himself.

 

EDIT: I wanted to add that Tanaka also preferred teh West Coast and he ended up in NY.

[DuckDuckGose]

If we got him for 120 all in with his contract and posting fee I would jump all over it. We would have to move the likes of revere and dickey to afford him but if they were moved for some cheaper bull pen help I think it would be worth it. Would also explore possibly trading Smoak to maybe Milwaukee who is looking for a 1st basemen.

 

I would 100% prefer this route then overpaying in a trade to land carrasco, salazar or Ross.

 

Dickey + Revere would cover ~85%-95% of Maeda's contract. I'd rather keep Dickey so lets say they moved Revere + Smoak instead that's still ~55% of Maeda's AAV.

[burlingtonbandit]

Dickey + Revere would cover ~85%-95% of Maeda's contract. I'd rather keep Dickey so lets say they moved Revere + Smoak instead that's still ~55% of Maeda's AAV.

 

Well you have to think about how it affects 2017-2020 as well.

[KingKat]

I think Maeda will attract a lot of very serious bids. He's only a year older than Heyward. That's young for a free agent and pitchers are somewhat overvalued to begin with.

[Dr. Dinger]

He's going to go to LAD.

 

1) Closest to Japan.

2) Loads of money.

3) Good buddies with Kuma.

[DuckDuckGose]

Well you have to think about how it affects 2017-2020 as well.

 

I wouldn't worry about that, 28yo and in his prime. Should be well worth the $. If you mean resigning EE and Jose then I'd argue Maeda shouldn't have an impact. If he does they weren't signing with TO anyways.

[DuckDuckGose]

I think Maeda will attract a lot of very serious bids. He's only a year older than Heyward. That's young for a free agent and pitchers are somewhat overvalued to begin with.

 

Heyward only had three serious bidders in the end; Cubs, Nats and Cardinals. I think the Nationals and Cardinals could target him but I'm guessing the Cubs are happy with their rotation.

[DuckDuckGose]

He's going to go to LAD.

 

1) Closest to Japan.

2) Loads of money.

3) Good buddies with Kuma.

 

except the LAD are in the luxury tax, whatever they sign him for they'll end up paying 150% of that deal. I'd like to think that the Jays should be willing to spend more than the Dodgers considering they wont have to pay a luxury tax.

[xposbrad]

Have the Jays ever bid on anyone that was posted? I haven't read anywhere they did. I don't think this team will spend that kind of money, the Jays shy away from that route for some strange reason.

[KingKat]

I'd like to think that the Jays should be willing to spend more than the Dodgers considering they wont have to pay a luxury tax.

 

You'd like to think that but the Jays are in a tough situation. Everyone has more money and they have less. Atkins already said that all the extra revenue from last year is committed and a bit of extra too because the exchange rate gobbled it all up. AA picked an excellent time to leave. The economics are really bad.

[burlingtonbandit]

except the LAD are in the luxury tax, whatever they sign him for they'll end up paying 150% of that deal. I'd like to think that the Jays should be willing to spend more than the Dodgers considering they wont have to pay a luxury tax.

 

Well the Dodgers were willing to give Grienke 30 Million/year so I don't think its going to stop them..

[G-Snarls]

He's going to go to LAD.

 

1) Closest to Japan.

2) Loads of money.

3) Good buddies with Kuma.

 

4) They lost Greinke

[Dr. Dinger]

except the LAD are in the luxury tax, whatever they sign him for they'll end up paying 150% of that deal. I'd like to think that the Jays should be willing to spend more than the Dodgers considering they wont have to pay a luxury tax.

 

Maeda is probably going to get close to $100M, over and above his posting fee. It's hard to see Shapiro being willing to shell out that much on an unknown commodity when a solid mid-rotation starter like Wei-Yin Chen can be had for half of that. I would love to see us sign Maeda and have him become the next Darvish, I just don't see it happening.

[G-Snarls]

Are the posting fees for Japanese players now capped?

 

Is it 20M?

[Dr. Dinger]

Have the Jays ever bid on anyone that was posted? I haven't read anywhere they did. I don't think this team will spend that kind of money, the Jays shy away from that route for some strange reason.

 

We bid on Chapman and Darvish. Good thing we missed out though, those guys ended up being terrible.

[HERPDERP]

It is 20m. If you are an MLB team that isn't even going to bother submitting the posting fee then you are dumb. There is no risk at all.

[G-Snarls]

It is 20m. If you are an MLB team that isn't even going to bother submitting the posting fee then you are dumb. There is no risk at all.

 

They made it 20M because of the Darvish craziness?

[Jonn]

He's going to go to LAD.

 

1) Closest to Japan.

2) Loads of money.

3) Good buddies with Kuma.

 

Are they actually friends or is this just an assumption? I mean Kuma is 7 years older and they didn't even play on the same team Japan. Hard to imagine them being great buddies.

[KingKat]

It is 20m. If you are an MLB team that isn't even going to bother submitting the posting fee then you are dumb. There is no risk at all.

 

If you're at your budget or all you have to spend is roughtly the amount of the posting fee itself than there's no point in posting a bid. Why waste your time when you could be spending your time pursuing more realistic options?