Kenta Maeda

[DuckDuckGose]

I didn't realize you could judge a man's competency without leaving your house.

[KingKat]

I didn't realize you could judge a man's competency without leaving your house.

 

So when you run out of arguments, you're just going to throw the "what do you nerds know anyways" line of reasoning at people? By that logic, why are you even here discussing any of this with any of us? I'm sure you can find other ways to waste time.

[DuckDuckGose]

So when you run out of arguments, you're just going to throw the "what do you nerds know anyways" line of reasoning at people? By that logic, why are you even here discussing any of this with any of us? I'm sure you can find other ways to waste time.

 

What do you want me to do? You can make a list of all the high level baseball people that have nothing but praise for Beeston and his work. You can pretend that you know better than them but let's be real no one on here does. So I'll listen to the people with actual insight and give s*** replies to s*** posts.

[KingKat]

What do you want me to do? You can make a list of all the high level baseball people that have nothing but praise for Beeston and his work. You can pretend that you know better than them but let's be real no one on here does. So I'll listen to the people with actual insight and give s*** replies to s*** posts.

 

Wow you're really bitchy in addition to being very argumentative. If you think what we post is s***, I would encourage to you to get lost. You're pretty annoying to talk to anyways.

[DuckDuckGose]

Wow you're really bitchy in addition to being very argumentative. If you think what we post is s***, I would encourage to you to get lost. You're pretty annoying to talk to anyways.

 

If refusing to perpetuate ignorant group think makes me argumentative and bitchy then so be it.

 

Let's remember that I came here to discuss Maeda and all I've gotten back is that he's signing on the West Coast, Rogers wont spend the money and a tirade of dissent against the old management team and moves they made over 3 years ago.

 

Obviously that wasn't the kind of discussion I was hoping for when I posted.

[DuckDuckGose]

You haven't really answered the questions about why you think Maeda is a #2 type pitcher who carries little risk. The baseball community doesn't see him as that. People haven't responded that strongly about Maeda because they see him as similar to the other pitchers on the market and don't see this is a special opportunity for the team, as you do. Tell us why you believe your perspective of Maeda is the correct one and maybe you'll get a legitimate discussion.

 

Thanks for the reasoned response North.

 

I read a Badler article that pegged Maeda's floor as a #4/5 SP but stated that there could be some upside there. The thought was that if his stuff translates as well as Tanaka's he can be a #2. Obviously, I became a Youtube scout at that point and liked what I saw. Like other Japanese pitchers he throws multiple FB's (he can hit the mid-90's but he's a low 90's pitcher) and he pairs that with a slider, changeup and curveball all of which he can throw for strikes. Overall I liked his stuff but none of the secondaries are wipeout pitches which further enforces the belief that he wont be an ace like Tanaka or Darvish. I found a Fangraphs article trying to find a MLB comp for Maeda and they came up with an Aaron Nola comp mostly based on their FBs and Changeups. Another Fangraphs article places his talent level between Jordan Zimmerman and Rick Porcello coming up with a Gallardo comp (and the numbers were shared in an earlier post). Gallardo is a guy that I view as a #3 but IMO Maeda's numbers suggest he'll BB less batters and SO batters at around the same rate as Gallardo. Which put him in solid #2 territory (Gallardo would costa pick and I don't see Shapiro surrendering his first given where the farm is at). Maeda's numbers in Japan are behind Tanaka and Darvish but they are ahead of Dice-K and Iwakuma both of which had MLB success. Iwakuma is a solid #2 and that's where I'd peg Maeda right now.

[KingKat]

If refusing to perpetuate ignorant group think makes me argumentative and bitchy then so be it.

 

Let's remember that I came here to discuss Maeda and all I've gotten back is that he's signing on the West Coast, Rogers wont spend the money and a tirade of dissent against the old management team and moves they made over 3 years ago.

 

Obviously that wasn't the kind of discussion I was hoping for when I posted.

 

So what did you want exactly? People to expect Maeda to sign here because you said so. People to say Shapiro isn't all that great because look at how little he's done in the few weeks that he's even been here? It seems like everyone anyone tries to make a point, you just move the goal posts to a new point of contention so that you can keep the argument going. That's why we keep drifting off topic. And now you've progressed to complaining that all our posts are garbages after being willing to argue for pages and pages on those garbage posts. At this point, we need North to come in and remind us what your original point even was.

[DuckDuckGose]

I don't want to argue with anyone and I'm not moving the goal posts to a fictional argument. I thought Maeda was a good fit, saw zero conversation about him and thought others on here would enjoy the discussion.

[DuckDuckGose]

Rather talk about Shohei Otani.

 

Well if you want Otani then adding Maeda now wont hurt! Otani is a beauty though, would love to land the Japanese Babe Ruth.

[Boxcar]

Thanks for the reasoned response North.

 

I read a Badler article that pegged Maeda's floor as a #4/5 SP but stated that there could be some upside there. The thought was that if his stuff translates as well as Tanaka's he can be a #2. Obviously, I became a Youtube scout at that point and liked what I saw. Like other Japanese pitchers he throws multiple FB's (he can hit the mid-90's but he's a low 90's pitcher) and he pairs that with a slider, changeup and curveball all of which he can throw for strikes. Overall I liked his stuff but none of the secondaries are wipeout pitches which further enforces the belief that he wont be an ace like Tanaka or Darvish. I found a Fangraphs article trying to find a MLB comp for Maeda and they came up with an Aaron Nola comp mostly based on their FBs and Changeups. Another Fangraphs article places his talent level between Jordan Zimmerman and Rick Porcello coming up with a Gallardo comp (and the numbers were shared in an earlier post). Gallardo is a guy that I view as a #3 but IMO Maeda's numbers suggest he'll BB less batters and SO batters at around the same rate as Gallardo. Which put him in solid #2 territory (Gallardo would costa pick and I don't see Shapiro surrendering his first given where the farm is at). Maeda's numbers in Japan are behind Tanaka and Darvish but they are ahead of Dice-K and Iwakuma both of which had MLB success. Iwakuma is a solid #2 and that's where I'd peg Maeda right now.

 

This line of thinking doesn't really make sense. Japan is full of hacky slap hitters, and Gallardo is projected as a below average arm. From your description of him I'd honestly rather have JA Happ.

 

There's hype around Maeda because he's an unknown quantity. There's been nothing to indicate otherwise, and I'll pass on a guy from Japan who will probably strike out fewer than 6 per nine.

[DuckDuckGose]

This line of thinking doesn't really make sense. Japan is full of hacky slap hitters, and Gallardo is projected as a below average arm. From your description of him I'd honestly rather have JA Happ.

 

There's hype around Maeda because he's an unknown quantity. There's been nothing to indicate otherwise, and I'll pass on a guy from Japan who will probably strike out fewer than 6 per nine.

 

I like JA Happ a lot, one of the best FB's of any LHP in the MLB. I think he's going to have a career year and be a true #2 for the Jays. So maybe we just like different styles of pitchers. I like guys that can pitch off the FB, gives guys multiple looks and change speeds and that's how I see Maeda.

 

I do appreciate that he is somewhat unknown and that Japan has less talent than the MLB but I'm fairly confident in his ability to get the SO by switching speeds and staying ahead in the count. Kind of like Marco Estrada. You've made me look at Maeda a bit differently though and I've changed my stance a bit. I still think he's a great fit but I'm not convinced that he's a guy they should be spending $100M on. For Happ or Estrada money it would still make a lot of sense.

[xposbrad]

I like JA Happ a lot, one of the best FB's of any LHP in the MLB. I think he's going to have a career year and be a true #2 for the Jays. So maybe we just like different styles of pitchers. I like guys that can pitch off the FB, gives guys multiple looks and change speeds and that's how I see Maeda.

 

I do appreciate that he is somewhat unknown and that Japan has less talent than the MLB but I'm fairly confident in his ability to get the SO by switching speeds and staying ahead in the count. Kind of like Marco Estrada. You've made me look at Maeda a bit differently though and I've changed my stance a bit. I still think he's a great fit but I'm not convinced that he's a guy they should be spending $100M on. For Happ or Estrada money it would still make a lot of sense.

 

That often happens to 33 year olds in MLB.

[DuckDuckGose]

That often happens to 33 year olds in MLB.

 

Well he had a career year at the age of 32yo thanks to some mid-season adjustments that I believe should carry over.

[Spanky99]

Maeda is going to LA if they don't sign Kazmir. It's over.

[FrozenRopes]

Well he had a career year at the age of 32yo thanks to some mid-season adjustments that I believe should carry over.

 

Thanks to underachieving his entire career. Stop gap, sure. Career year, highly,highly unlikely.

[G-Snarls]

Latest On Kenta Maeda

 

By Zach Links | December 22, 2015 at 12:35pm CST

 

The deadline for an MLB team to sign Kenta Maeda is January 8th at 5pm ET/4pm CT, according to Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter). Meanwhile, MLBTR has learned that the Hiroshima Toyo Carp have set the release fee at $20MM, the maximum allowed by the agreement between MLB and NPB. Any team willing to meet that $20MM asking price will have the right to negotiate with Maeda over the next couple of weeks.

 

The question now is, which teams will be making a serious run at Maeda? We learned recently that the Red Sox will not submit a bid to negotiate with Maeda thanks to the mammoth deal given to David Price. At the Winter Meetings, Giants GM Bobby Evans told MLBTR that his club had internal conversations about Maeda, but they’re almost certainly out on him after adding Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto. The Padres will not be in the mix, despite sending a number of club officials to Japan in November. The Cardinals looked to be one possibility, but they’re probably not considering the Japanese star after inking Mike Leake to a five-year, $80MM deal.

 

The Dodgers would appear to be a solid fit for Maeda after losing Zack Greinke to free agency and tearing up their agreement with Hisashi Iwaukma. They have been expected to be among the teams in the hunt for the right-hander, but there hasn’t been any definitive word on that as of late.

 

Maeda, 28 in April, is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in Japan. He just wrapped up a season in which he pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 across 206 1/3 innings, marking his sixth consecutive season with an earned run average of 2.60 or better. His excellent 2015 season netted Maeda his second Sawamura Award — Japan’s equivalent to the Cy Young Award. With his relative youth, dominant track record and, of course, lack of draft pick compensation, Maeda immediately becomes one of the more intriguing arms on the free-agent market. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes forecasted a five-year, $60MM deal for Maeda this winter. When factoring in a release fee of $20MM, that amounts to an $80MM commitment overall.

[DuckDuckGose]

So with Mike Leake signing a 5yr $80M deal is Maeda more or less attractive?

[z3r0s]

if he still only gets 80/5 (posting fee included) WAY more attractive.

[DuckDuckGose]

if he still only gets 80/5 (posting fee included) WAY more attractive.

 

My thoughts as well. Very curious to see what Gallardo gets now. If Leake had 3/$60M on the table you'd think that Gallardo will get a similar offer.

[flafson]

Dodgers seem to want him, we don't stand a chance.

[DuckDuckGose]

Dodgers seem to want him, we don't stand a chance.

 

I don't get that logic though. If the Dodgers offer an $80M total value contract they'll have to pay another $40M in tax for a total investment of $120M. You'd think someone else will have more of a financial incentive to make the deal. They agreed to a 3yr $45M ($15M AAV) w/ Iwakuma. I don't think they'll spend more than that on Maeda.

[DuckDuckGose]

Ya, I was asking if it changes anyone's view now that he has signed. Contract projections don't mean anything. Signed contracts do.