Offseason Roster Thread

[burlingtonbandit]

so you don't think Osuna can be a starter?

 

Could he? Sure. But I think its more likely than not he doesn't turn into a successful starter. Already had TJS and his mechanics aren't the best.

[saskjayfan]

Could he? Sure. But I think its more likely than not he doesn't turn into a successful starter. Already had TJS and his mechanics aren't the best.

 

so you don't like that inverted W.....what do you think about his fastball command and his secondary pitches...looks like 3 pretty good pitches to me for a 20 year old

[THANOS]

so you don't like that inverted W.....what do you think about his fastball command and his secondary pitches...looks like 3 pretty good pitches to me for a 20 year old

 

His mechanics can always be worked on. Not 100% sure but I believe he could generate the same type of command and velocity with a safer delivery. I would imagine Shapiro will have people check that out.

[saskjayfan]

His mechanics can always be worked on. Not 100% sure but I believe he could generate the same type of command and velocity with a safer delivery. I would imagine Shapiro will have people check that out.

 

it's not exactly something that's easy to check out. Pitchers with supposed amazing mechanics get injured, those with terrible mechanics sometimes never get injured. Sale has an even more pronounced inverted W than Osuna and he's done okay..lol. I'll take the 20 year old with great command and life to his pitches....we're not talking about signing a late 20s pitcher to a 100+ million dollar contract who has poor mechanics...we're talking the first 6 cheap years. I like Osuna's chances to be a quality productive starter until he is a free agent in 2021.

[burlingtonbandit]

it's not exactly something that's easy to check out. Pitchers with supposed amazing mechanics get injured, those with terrible mechanics sometimes never get injured. Sale has an even more pronounced inverted W than Osuna and he's done okay..lol. I'll take the 20 year old with great command and life to his pitches....we're not talking about signing a late 20s pitcher to a 100+ million dollar contract who has poor mechanics...we're talking the first 6 cheap years. I like Osuna's chances to be a quality productive starter until he is a free agent in 2021.

 

Thing is Osuna has already had TJS so the risk is much higher than Sale. Very few players are effective after 2 TJS. I like Osuna's 3 pitches but the thing I worry about is the HR ball. He gave up a lot of HRs in the minors and is an extreme flyball pitcher. With him throwing less hard as a starter the HRs will likely increase as well.

[THANOS]

Thing is Osuna has already had TJS so the risk is much higher than Sale. Very few players are effective after 2 TJS. I like Osuna's 3 pitches but the thing I worry about is the HR ball. He gave up a lot of HRs in the minors and is an extreme flyball pitcher. With him throwing less hard as a starter the HRs will likely increase as well.

 

It's all in location. He was giving up a lot of HRs because his fastballs were at the top of the zone, centre cut. If he located them down in the zone, and only went up occasionally to alter the batters viewpoint for a strikeout, that HR rate would likely decline. He has the command to locate his pitchers, so that's all that would be needed. Osuna ranged between 96-99, predominatly, in the BP so I could see him live in the 94-96 region as a starter (same with Sanchez). That's more than good enough to minmize contact on the fastball as long he locates appropriately.

[burlingtonbandit]

It's all in location. He was giving up a lot of HRs because his fastballs were at the top of the zone, centre cut. If he located them down in the zone, and only went up occasionally to alter the batters viewpoint for a strikeout, that HR rate would likely decline. He has the command to locate his pitchers, so that's all that would be needed. Osuna ranged between 96-99, predominatly, in the BP so I could see him live in the 94-96 region as a starter (same with Sanchez). That's more than good enough to minmize contact on the fastball as long he locates appropriately.

 

He still pitched up in the zone quite frequently as a reliever. Thats part of the reason he gets so much swing and miss. And to be honest with today's power hitters having uppercut swings, pitching down in the zone if you have a straight fastball doesn't mean less HRs.

 

His avg FB velo was 95.6 so it probably is in the 93-94 range as a starter.

[THANOS]

He still pitched up in the zone quite frequently as a reliever. Thats part of the reason he gets so much swing and miss. And to be honest with today's power hitters having uppercut swings, pitching down in the zone if you have a straight fastball doesn't mean less HRs.

 

His avg FB velo was 95.6 so it probably is in the 93-94 range as a starter.

 

I don't remember every single HR he surrendered this year but the ones I do remember were all up in the zone straight down the middle. It's fine to pitch up in the zone for a strikeout but it should be out of the zone where batters can't get on top of it, and not touching the top of the box. A low fastball on the corners would certainly mean less HRs in general, as long as they avoid hot zones.

 

I know he would probably average 93-94 as a starter but I'm sure he could still dial it up to 96/97 when need be throughout a start. All in all, I think he'll actually be much more effective as a starter with less of a reliance on the fastball.

[RealAccountant]

I don't remember every single HR he surrendered this year but the ones I do remember were all up in the zone straight down the middle. It's fine to pitch up in the zone for a strikeout but it should be out of the zone where batters can't get on top of it, and not touching the top of the box. A low fastball on the corners would certainly mean less HRs in general, as long as they avoid hot zones.

 

I know he would probably average 93-94 as a starter but I'm sure he could still dial it up to 96/97 when need be throughout a start. All in all, I think he'll actually be much more effective as a starter with less of a reliance on the fastball.

 

I don't think changing speeds is as easy as you think

[Cyborg]

Relevant: http://www.fangraphs.com/community/vertical-command-or-lack-thereof/

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Wow so we won't trade bat(s) for pitching as I suggested in my Seattle trade, but you guys wanna trade ousana Shanchez and more minor league players for another bat we really don't need! Wtf

[RealAccountant]

It was around this time last year that we signed Russell Martin

[Governator]

it's not exactly something that's easy to check out. Pitchers with supposed amazing mechanics get injured, those with terrible mechanics sometimes never get injured. Sale has an even more pronounced inverted W than Osuna and he's done okay..lol. I'll take the 20 year old with great command and life to his pitches....we're not talking about signing a late 20s pitcher to a 100+ million dollar contract who has poor mechanics...we're talking the first 6 cheap years. I like Osuna's chances to be a quality productive starter until he is a free agent in 2021.

 

Would have been 2022 if the Jays didn't have him on the team to start the season. It's one thing if he was starting for us, but to burn a year for a month's worth of work for a reliever while sending Delabar down was pretty stupid.

[saskjayfan]

Would have been 2022 if the Jays didn't have him on the team to start the season. It's one thing if he was starting for us, but to burn a year for a month's worth of work for a reliever while sending Delabar down was pretty stupid.

 

we should fire whoever made that decision

[Boxcar]

You promised to stop posting

[o2cui2i]

Actually, I think you only need to keep a guy down like ~12 days to get that extra year. Because there are 183 days in the season but a full year of service time is 172 days, and anything less than 6.000 years of service time = no free agency.

 

So they traded 1 year of Osuna 6 years from now for about 12 days of service in 2015 (so about five appearances).

 

Now they could easily get it back this year if they want to try him as a starter. Just option him down for a few weeks to slowly build up stamina after spring training.

 

Probably a moot point though since he'll inevitably need TJS and after that they'll option him once his rehab is up to save some service time.

 

he's already had TJS right?

[King]

yes

[BTS]

The Toronto Star: "Mike Pelfrey could be attractive to the Jays... It’s not inconceivable to think Pelfrey could be to the Jays in 2016 what Marco Estrada was this year."

 

http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2015/11/17/five-starters-blue-jays-could-target-in-free-agency.html

 

STFU North

[RealAccountant]

Wouldn't it be better to just use a pitching machine if we are going to rely on babip anyways

[KingKat]

So what's the deal with Samardzija anyways? Is there a credible explanation for his struggles in 2015 and a good reason to expect positive regression?

[King]

#PelfMania

[Grant77]

It's happening and you know it.

 

#PelfMania

 

Mike Pelfrey is a viable option for our open rotation slot, but I think I'd rather hand the spot to Sanchez, who sported a similar 4.39 xFIP (and 3.12 ERA) in his last 8 starts after some rough command to open the season. I believe that sample represents his true talent as a starter, with room for a bit of upside due to his age. I'd rather use that extra money to pay a premium for a good pitcher on a short term deal like Iwakuma.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=11490&position=P&type=&gds=2015-04-27&gde=2015-06-05&season=

[Boxcar]

#PelfMania

 

I want to punch you in the face so badly.

[Brownie19]

Mike Pelfrey is a viable option for our open rotation slot, but I think I'd rather hand the spot to Sanchez, who sported a similar 4.39 xFIP (and 3.12 ERA) in his last 8 starts after some rough command to open the season. I believe that sample represents his true talent as a starter, with room for a bit of upside due to his age. I'd rather use that extra money to pay a premium for a good pitcher on a short term deal like Iwakuma.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=11490&position=P&type=&gds=2015-04-27&gde=2015-06-05&season=

 

Said everyone with a pulse...

[Grant77]

The start date of that sample was chosen for its effect on the response variate. That's a bad way to analyze stuff. Obviously a more attractive option is to bring in a better pitcher like Iwakuma.

 

He walked 11 batters in the second and third games of that sample, so clearly not. Without being sidetracked and returning to my point, I think that if we have a spot for Pelfrey then we really don't lose anything by going with Sanchez instead. We don't know what he is as a starter, but we do know that he is capable of delivering similar results in the major leagues because he's done it. When Martin made a clear change and started to put the glove in the middle of the plate and let the action move it to the corners (roughly his last 4 starts), the results were even more encouraging.

[Laika]

I like how even in a cherry picked string of starts, Sanchez' FIP is still 4.67 and his ratios are still (barf) BB/9 and (blech) K/9.

 

There's just absolutely, fully, completely, resolutely, objectively, certainly no way to look at Aaron Sanchez and see anything approach even a slightly below average MLB starting pitcher. You can still hope that it happens, but you'd be hoping for a major skill change.

 

He was a s*** starter in the minors and an even shittier starter in the majors.

 

His string of big league starts is some of the worst starting pitching Blue Jays fans have seen in the last decade. I struggle to think of many guys who would have made ~10 starts and been as terrible. Drabek would be up there, probably even worse than Sanchez. Aaron Laffey probably. Dana Eveland. Those are his peers..... Jo-Jo Reyes was probably better on paper.

[admin]

I like how even in a cherry picked string of starts, Sanchez' FIP is still 4.67 and his ratios are still (barf) BB/9 and (blech) K/9.

 

There's just absolutely, fully, completely, resolutely, objectively, certainly no way to look at Aaron Sanchez and see anything approach even a slightly below average MLB starting pitcher. You can still hope that it happens, but you'd be hoping for a major skill change.

 

He was a s*** starter in the minors and an even shittier starter in the majors.

 

His string of big league starts is some of the worst starting pitching Blue Jays fans have seen in the last decade. I struggle to think of many guys who would have made ~10 starts and been as terrible. Drabek would be up there, probably even worse than Sanchez. Aaron Laffey probably. Dana Eveland. Those are his peers..... Jo-Jo Reyes was probably better on paper.

 

I don't think you become a top 50 prospect in baseball by being a s*** starter in the minors. He obviously had problems with walks, but the potential is definitely there.

[burlingtonbandit]

Sounds like LaCava doesn't want Sanchez in the rotation either. Same with Osuna.

[Laika]

I don't think you become a top 50 prospect in baseball by being a s*** starter in the minors.

 

Well he was and he was. So...

[admin]

Well he was and he was. So...

 

I don't recall a single person here saying "Wow Sanchez is f***ing garbage." Actually this forum ranked him as our number one prospect in 2013.