What is needed next year so that the Jays keep winning?

[agrushcow]

I'm OK with average arm strength and elite range.

 

I don't disagree. Maybe I thought Heyward was a little more plus defensively than he actually is in center.

[Flashman]

Tulowitzki has a full no-trade clause.

 

tbf, Brunt did address this, saying something like 'Tulo probably didn't envisage Toronto as one of his goals', implying that he'd likely be open to a trade to most teams.

 

It'll be a fun off-season anyway. Hopefully AA positions the Jays to be perennial contenders for the next few years. I do think a huge part of that would be inking EE to an extension, mind.

[Corporal Valdal]

Wei Yin Chen what would he command as a FA? and whats a point form scouting report on him

[EMK19]

Wei Yin Chen what would he command as a FA? and whats a point form scouting report on him

 

Decent fastball, average secondary stuff, doesn't get all that many swings and misses/strikeouts, a flyball pitcher and somewhat vulnerable to homers.

[Grant77]

Wei Yin Chen what would he command as a FA? and whats a point form scouting report on him

 

I think someone will give him 3 years, maybe 3/36 total.

 

He lives and dies with fastball command and relies heavily on the pitch. He's got a pretty good slider that he likes to backdoor to lefties, but really struggles against righties because his changeup doesn't have enough separation and his curveball isn't very good. Right handed hitters can sit on the fastball and he's not overpowering enough to get away with any mistakes.

 

I personally don't think he's much of an upgrade over a guy like Hutchison and I think he would really struggle with any loss of velocity.

[BTS]

Wei Yin Chen what would he command as a FA? and whats a point form scouting report on him

 

I'm thinking like 4/50.

[Grant77]

I'm thinking like 4/50.

 

Count me out in that case.

[BTS]

Count me out in that case.

 

Yeah, I probably wouldn't go there. I do think he has a case though with the recent Nolasco/Santana/Jimenez signings. When JAson Vargas gets 4/32, Chen can get a fair bit more IMO.

[Grant77]

Yeah, I probably wouldn't go there. I do think he has a case though with the recent Nolasco/Santana/Jimenez signings. When JAson Vargas gets 4/32, Chen can get a fair bit more IMO.

 

You're probably right, someone will get desperate. I'm always low on my FA predictions, but the correct predictions sound so stupid to me until they actually happen.

[candymartinez]

I haven't read most of this thread. Probably been mentioned before...

 

Obviously starting pitching is priority number one. Lots of freed up money but, will they want to sign here? Lots of teams want starting pitching. I'm worried they end up with only a couple of number 4 types. Try out Osuna, Sanchez, Hendriks, why not? Might have to.

 

I'd rather ditch Dickey and his partner Thole taking up a roster spot but they might just have to keep him.

[Corporal Valdal]

Wei Yin Chen 3 years $36,000,000

Mat Latos 1 year $7,500,000 2017 option $8,000,000

[nmrch]

A 90 win team in a weak division just swept a 97 win team in one of the best divisions in MLB history. The playoffs are a crapshoot, this talk about "put the Jays over the top" is nonsensical. A good team can usually control whether they make the playoffs or not, what happens once they get there is a crapshoot. Edited October 22, 2015 by nmrch

[Grant77]

Wei Yin Chen 3 years $36,000,000

Mat Latos 1 year $7,500,000 2017 option $8,000,000

 

I would go after both Scott Kazmir and Brett Anderson before I'd offer a bunch of money to Chen. I'd also look into Zimmermann and Samardzija if the price is reasonable, but I suspect that it won't be.

 

Stroman

Anderson

Dickey

Hutchison

Latos

Osuna/Sanchez

 

That's a pretty solid rotation with good variety and depth if you ask me. Maybe you add a Bud Norris or Rich Hill as insurance, but I'd be pretty happy with one solid SP and a cheaper one year guy like Latos.

[Laika]

I don't think I could stomach Latos. Isn't Kennedy a FA? He's interesting.

 

Need to sign two SP no matter what they do.

[Grant77]

A 90 win team in a weak division just swept a 97 win team in one of the best divisions in MLB history. The playoffs are a crapshoot, this talk about "put the Jays over the top" is nonsensical. A good team usually control whether they make the playoffs or not, what happens once they get there is a crapshoot.

 

The Mets were far better than the Cubs before this series started in my opinion.

 

Also, that division was only 22 games over .500, which isn't historical by any stretch of the imagination. Heck, the AL East in 2013 was better than that at 28 games over. It wasn't even far behind this year at 14 over.

[Stangstag]

I want nothing to do with Latos. Chen and Anderson would be good targets. Zimmermann would be awesome.

[Krylian]

A 90 win team in a weak division just swept a 97 win team in one of the best divisions in MLB history. The playoffs are a crapshoot, this talk about "put the Jays over the top" is nonsensical. A good team usually control whether they make the playoffs or not, what happens once they get there is a crapshoot.

 

Of course it's a crapshoot. But you can still structure a team that can win in multiple ways.

 

As it stands, our offence is dangerous. The team can take walks, has a couple of guys with speed, and can hit for a shitload of power.

 

Pitching is were all the action will be this off-season.....or it should be....

 

The starting rotation....Solid, but will likely look completely different in 2016.

 

 

Price is likely gone.

Buehrle is gone

Estrada is more than likely gone.

Dickey's option will probably be picked up...and I'm fine with that as long as he's your #4-5.

Hutch will be back.

Stro will likely be the ace.

 

That rotation will need to be rebuilt...and I sure hope they sign someone that's a legit #1. I don't want Stro...and then a major drop off where you have Dickey, Hutch, and 2 other marginally solid guys.

 

The bullpen.

Spending major money on the pen is never a good idea...but no one can deny how useful an elite pen can be with a bunch of power arms. Cecil needs help from the left side.

 

Lowe and Hawkins are FA's

 

Are Sanchez and Osuna starters or relievers? I think most people would want to see them in the rotation as that's where the value really is....but how weak is that pen then.......and conversely...how comfortable are you with Osuna and Sanchez in the rotation if your other starters are Stro, Dickey, and Hutchison. Sorry...but that doesn't scream World Series contender to me. I'd love to be proven wrong.

 

The arm situation is up in the air for next year.

[nmrch]

The Mets were far better than the Cubs before this series started in my opinion.

 

Also, that division was only 22 games over .500, which isn't historical by any stretch of the imagination. Heck, the AL East in 2013 was better than that at 28 games over. It wasn't even far behind this year at 14 over.

 

With all due respect to your opinion it is wrong, the Cubs were considered favorites by the bookies.

 

And when i said historic i was referring to the fact that the third place team in that division won 97 games. I don't care enough to look it up but i doubt a division has been that good at the top many times before.

Edited October 22, 2015 by nmrch

[nmrch]

Of course it's a crapshoot. But you can still structure a team that can win in multiple ways.

 

 

I honestly don't believe that you can. Good teams win baseball games, how you do it really doesn't matter. There has been no evidence to suggest that a particular style is more effective at winning in the post season. For example i've seen a lot of people say that KC's hitting style is suited for the post season but there's nothing to back that up. Even a 105 win team will go down to a 90 win team about ~30% of the time. Its kind of what makes baseball a beautiful game, the randomness of it makes for great drama.

[Grant77]

Of course it's a crapshoot. But you can still structure a team that can win in multiple ways.

 

As it stands, our offence is dangerous. The team can take walks, has a couple of guys with speed, and can hit for a shitload of power.

 

Pitching is were all the action will be this off-season.....or it should be....

 

The starting rotation....Solid, but will likely look completely different in 2016.

 

 

Price is likely gone.

Buehrle is gone

Estrada is more than likely gone.

Dickey's option will probably be picked up...and I'm fine with that as long as he's your #4-5.

Hutch will be back.

Stro will likely be the ace.

 

That rotation will need to be rebuilt...and I sure hope they sign someone that's a legit #1. I don't want Stro...and then a major drop off where you have Dickey, Hutch, and 2 other marginally solid guys.

 

The bullpen.

Spending major money on the pen is never a good idea...but no one can deny how useful an elite pen can be with a bunch of power arms. Cecil needs help from the left side.

 

Lowe and Hawkins are FA's

 

Are Sanchez and Osuna starters or relievers? I think most people would want to see them in the rotation as that's where the value really is....but how weak is that pen then.......and conversely...how comfortable are you with Osuna and Sanchez in the rotation if your other starters are Stro, Dickey, and Hutchison. Sorry...but that doesn't scream World Series contender to me. I'd love to be proven wrong.

 

The arm situation is up in the air for next year.

 

The bullpen will be fine. We need to do what is best for Sanchez and Osuna. Add a couple of arms and it looks fine

 

Brett Cecil

Mark Lowe (2/10)

Liam Hendriks

David Hernandez (1/3)

Aaron Loup

Oliver Perez (1/4)

Bo Schultz

[Grant77]

With all due respect your opinion it is wrong, the Cubs were considered favorites by the bookies.

 

And when i said historic i was referring to the fact that the third place team in that division won 97 games. I don't care enough to look it up but i doubt a division has been that good at the top many times before.

 

Hahaha, thanks for the laugh. My opinion was absolutely right, the facts are right in front of you. Pitching dominates in the postseason and the Mets have it in spades.

 

The Cubs had a relatively average strength of schedule, so I'm not sure what you're trying to prove. A division of extremes is no more difficult to play in than a balanced division.

[nmrch]

Hahaha, thanks for the laugh. My opinion was absolutely right, the facts are right in front of you. Pitching dominates in the postseason and the Mets have it in spades.

 

The Cubs had a relatively average strength of schedule, so I'm not sure what you're trying to prove. A division of extremes is no more difficult to play in than a balanced division.

 

The fact that the Mets won(even in a sweep) doesn't make them a better team, if you believe otherwise you don't know what you're talking about.

 

And "pitching dominates in the postseason" is more nonsense btw, yes the post season allows you to get more starts from your aces but that's not what happened here. And also the Cubs trio of Arrieta, Lester and Hendricks is almost as good as Degrom, Harvey and Syndergaard. Why did the Cubs not benefit from this "pitching dominates in the post season" effect. Arrieta after all had one of the best non Kershaw seasons in recent years. Here are the xFIP's, 2.61, 3.06,3.25 vs 2.92, 3.24,2.91. You wouldn't know which set of starters belonged to which team without looking them up.

 

This is basically what bad punditry is built on, a lot of generalizations based on no evidence and post hoc fallacies left and right.

[OBPlover]

The fact that the Mets won(even in a sweep) doesn't make them a better team, if you believe otherwise you don't know what you're talking about.

 

And "pitching dominates in the postseason" is more nonsense btw, yes the post season allows you to get more starts from your aces but that's not what happened here. And also the Cubs trio of Arrieta, Lester and Hendricks is almost as good as Degrom, Harvey and Syndergaard. Why did the Cubs not benefit from this "pitching dominates in the post season" effect. Arrieta after all had one of the best non Kershaw seasons in recent years. Here are the xFIP's, 2.61, 3.06,3.25 vs 2.92, 3.24,2.91. You wouldn't know which set of starters belonged to which team without looking them up.

 

This is basically what bad punditry is built on, a lot of generalizations based on no evidence and post hoc fallacies left and right.

 

 

Not quite true. Good pitching *does* beat good hitting. It's one of the few old-fashioned baseball cliches that is actually true.

 

Or perhaps a better saying is good pitching and defense will beat good hitting.

 

This kind of thing was actually studied, way back. Someone dug up the research of all time greatest hitters vs the great pitchers of their day. They found that the Babe Ruths and Mickey Mantles absolutely destroyed any average or below average pitchers. But against Hall of Fame pitchers? nothing. They were very close in batting average (old fashioned study, used batting average) with any the pitchers overall batting avg against (which was always feeble). Good pitching really does shut down good hitting.

 

Of course, in a short series anything can happen. A bad pitcher can have an off day just like at any point in time during the regular season. Early in the season for example, Kershaw went through a rough patch. But your odds are against you if you can't put 3 above average starters in the playoffs.

[Orgfiller]

Hahaha, thanks for the laugh. My opinion was absolutely right, the facts are right in front of you. Pitching dominates in the postseason and the Mets have it in spades.

 

The Cubs had a relatively average strength of schedule, so I'm not sure what you're trying to prove. A division of extremes is no more difficult to play in than a balanced division.

 

Have you looked at the NL East? The Phillies are the worst team in baseball, the Braves suck, the Marlins had rough starts from 2/3 of their promising outfield, and the third member was gone for significant time due to injury (and aside from Jose Fernandez and a few other notable players, their team just isn't that good); the Nationals, the only other good team on paper, underperformed a lot except from outstanding contributions from Harper and Scherzer.

 

The Dodgers are another team that feature two aces plus very strong depth at every position. What happened to them? You would think Kershaw and Greinke pitching 4/5 games would be a lock, considering that during the regular season the Dodgers' offense was much better. That's just the way the playoffs go.

[Candide]

I don't think I could stomach Latos. Isn't Kennedy a FA? He's interesting.

 

Need to sign two SP no matter what they do.

 

yeah - i'm Latos intolerant too. would prefer to re-sign Estrada as the #4 guy to replace Buehrle assuming that the contract is reasonable (i.e. 36 million over 3 years tops). Then look at someone like Shark or Zimmerman to replace Price as the #2.

[Grant77]

The fact that the Mets won(even in a sweep) doesn't make them a better team, if you believe otherwise you don't know what you're talking about.

 

And "pitching dominates in the postseason" is more nonsense btw, yes the post season allows you to get more starts from your aces but that's not what happened here. And also the Cubs trio of Arrieta, Lester and Hendricks is almost as good as Degrom, Harvey and Syndergaard. Why did the Cubs not benefit from this "pitching dominates in the post season" effect. Arrieta after all had one of the best non Kershaw seasons in recent years. Here are the xFIP's, 2.61, 3.06,3.25 vs 2.92, 3.24,2.91. You wouldn't know which set of starters belonged to which team without looking them up.

 

This is basically what bad punditry is built on, a lot of generalizations based on no evidence and post hoc fallacies left and right.

 

Yes, a 4 game sweep does make them a better team. That's especially true when you consider the fact that the Mets were the better team after the deadline aquisitions.

 

It's also true that runs scored decrease around 25% in the playoffs, mostly do to the increased use of high level pitching. It's very convenient that you leave out the 4th starters, but if you believe that junkballers like Hendricks and Hammel can compare to the talent of Syndergaard and Matz then you're a fool.

 

I'm using facts to back up my argument, not a bunch of s*** about small ball and playoff experience. Get your head out of the sand.

[Spanky99]

If Osuna moves to a starter...what's his max innings? Is he even a post season starter if he has limits? personally I'd just keep getting the win and half out of him as closer.

 

Get out, he's not a fatty anymore. You can like him again, meat.

[Spanky99]

They'll definitely keep them for 2016 regardless and then if they're out of the hunt at the trade deadline they will deal them for a good return.

 

Either of them would accept a trade to a playoff team going into their FA season.

 

I think we'll lose them both to Free Agency anyway. And we probably should for what they'd want we'd be better off going after a really good pitcher(s) that is younger.

 

Even without them in 2017, we still have a good offensive core with Tulo, JD, Martin and to a lesser extent Revere, Travis.

 

We need to add some serious SP and RP before 2016 and can make another run with EE and JBau. There is a good core there for 2017+ and plenty of time to add pieces before then. I'm not worried about losing EE and JBau for their 35-40 age seasons.

 

Big key is to add Pitching this off season. We need Rogers to open up their wallets. Hopefully they can see the value now.

 

What if they still don't waive their rights, we'll get a decent pick from one of them at least. Plus, we won't be out of it, cause I said so.

 

P.S. I'd extend EE.

[Spanky99]

need to acquire a good LH bat or two. too many RH bats is a real problem.

 

Not if they hit RHP'ing well. Yer dumn.

[Spanky99]

Sign Gordon and Heyward.

Trade Pillar + Osuna + Sanchez + whatever else needed for Carrasco.

 

Heyward CF

Donaldson 3B

Bautista RF

Edwin 1B

Gordon LF

Tulo SS

Cola/Smoak 1B

Martin C

Travis 2B

 

Saunders 4 OF / Pompey

Goins IF

Smoak/Cola 1B/PH

Thole C

 

Carrasco

Stroman

Dickey

Hutch

Hendriks/some guy

 

Cecil

who cares

some guy we traded Revere for

Loup

who cares

who cares

who cares

 

I'd be down with that.