Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[metafour]

Josh Kasevich just hit a 409 foot HR.

 

.336/.390/.414 heading into today's AAA game.

 

Roden hit his 9th AAA HR yesterday:

 

.320/.407/.515 (141 wRC+).

[Orgfiller]

Alan Roden is clearly LF Spencer Horwitz. Hopefully it’s semi passable “below average” defense rather than butcher who should DH. Not the worst outcome if he becomes like this version of Horwitz though.

[max silver]

Alan Roden is clearly LF Spencer Horwitz. Hopefully it’s semi passable “below average” defense rather than butcher who should DH. Not the worst outcome if he becomes like this version of Horwitz though.

 

I've seen reports that suggest Roden is an average or even better than average defender in a corner outfield spot so I it's possible that Horwitz isn't a good comparison in the field.

[Brownie19]

Josh Kasevich just hit a 409 foot HR.

 

.336/.390/.414 heading into today's AAA game.

 

Roden hit his 9th AAA HR yesterday:

 

.320/.407/.515 (141 wRC+).

 

Is Kasevich still really good with the glove? Like a legit SS?

[John_Havok]

Is Kasevich still really good with the glove? Like a legit SS?

 

Reports on his defense are generally positive.

[Laika]

You guys DON'T EVEN UNDERSTAND how many 1-2 WAR players Ross Atkins is going to produce in the next few years

[Olerud363]

Could you stop (or scale back) with this kinda crap man? It deters from the interesting things you say.

 

The comment I made about Nimmala was interesting and literally true.

 

If he develops the same way as many major league players, including Lindor and Betts, he will literally be a .190 hitter with 70+ homers...

 

Implicit in my comment is that... no. That won't happen likely, as there hasn't been many .190 hitters with extreme power in mlb history. So what will happen? We don't really know because there isn't hardly any players like this. People can find a couple, maybe Gunnar Henderson,

 

Interesting thing is a Gunnar Henderson season at 23, isn't too different than a Francisco Lindor season at 23 or 24... though at 20 and 21 they looked very different.

 

Also interesting is the general trends in the game. And implicit in my comment is that what we are seeing from Nimmala has to be judged in context of pitching trends, we assume velocity and strike-outs are trending higher at all levels so A-ball stats are probably different than they were 10 years ago.

 

Also interesting is that if trends continue a .190 hitter with awesome power, walks, and great defense could be a 6 WAR player or something.

 

Davis Schneider is like a 1 WAR player hitting .200 with average baserunning and defense, and average power.

 

We assume my comment is silly because we assume that MLB will have to intervene somehow if the .240 mlb average get's much worse. Also an interesting discussion.

[Jimcanuck]

The comment I made about Nimmala was interesting and literally true.

 

If he develops the same way as many major league players, including Lindor and Betts, he will literally be a .190 hitter with 70+ homers...

 

Implicit in my comment is that... no. That won't happen likely, as there hasn't been many .190 hitters with extreme power in mlb history. So what will happen? We don't really know because there isn't hardly any players like this. People can find a couple, maybe Gunnar Henderson,

 

Interesting thing is a Gunnar Henderson season at 23, isn't too different than a Francisco Lindor season at 23 or 24... though at 20 and 21 they looked very different.

 

Also interesting is the general trends in the game. And implicit in my comment is that what we are seeing from Nimmala has to be judged in context of pitching trends, we assume velocity and strike-outs are trending higher at all levels so A-ball stats are probably different than they were 10 years ago.

 

Also interesting is that if trends continue a .190 hitter with awesome power, walks, and great defense could be a 6 WAR player or something.

 

Davis Schneider is like a 1 WAR player hitting .200 with average baserunning and defense, and average power.

 

We assume my comment is silly because we assume that MLB will have to intervene somehow if the .240 mlb average get's much worse. Also an interesting discussion.

 

In other words, TBD

[Laika]

There is even a precedent

 

Imagine if Gallo was a good shortstop

[Laika]

Nimmala's line isn't even that weird anymore though.

 

He could have linear development and end up with almost exactly the same line as an MLB player in a few years

 

You know who the bull case comps actually are? And this is fun as f***... Oneil Cruz and Elly De La Cruz.

 

NIMMALA - 18 years old - A ball - 8.3% BB 31.3% K, .245 ISO, .232./.313/.476 (121 wRC+)

 

ONEIL - 18 years old - A ball - 7.5% BB 29.3% K, .102 ISO, .240/.293/.342 (79 wRC+)

19 years old - A ball repeated - 7.7% BB, 22.6% K, .201 IAO, .286/.343/.488 (134 wRC+)

 

ELLY - 19 years old - A ball - 4.8% BB, 31% BB, .208 ISO, .269/.305/.477 (106 wRC+)

(lost his age 18 year to Covid)

 

ELLY and ONEIL in the MLB = 30%+ K rate dudes with .200 ISOs. 119 and 113 wRC+ this year from them.

 

 

Even if you think he only has a 10 or 20% shot of making it, really all he needs to do is keep everything the same as he climbs the ladder. 30% K rates can work in MLB if you have power and secondary skills.

[Olerud363]

There is even a precedent

 

Imagine if Gallo was a good shortstop

 

Gallo had 4.4 WAR in 2021, as a .199 hitting good outfielder with 38 homeruns in a league that hit .245

 

The league now hits .240. If that trend continues the league will hit .235 in 3 years. .230 in 6 when Nimmala is entering his prime.

 

So could Nimmala hit .190 but have a great season. Yes.

 

( as an aside Joey Gallo had more power at 18 than Nimmala and better overall stats. He already was hitting 60 homers per 162 games and he matured at more like 40 per 162, anecdotally the guys who hit 5 homers in 100 games with 90 ks can grow their power, but the guys who hit 20 homers in 100 games with 150 ks have to tone it back.. generalization and maybe not true).

[Olerud363]

The league now hits .240. If that trend continues the league will hit .235 in 3 years. .230 in 6 when Nimmala is entering his prime.

 

 

If nothing changes the league will hit .230 in 2030. I don't think this will happen. One or both of two things will change.

 

1. Commissioner intervenes with new rules

2. Turns out John Kasevitch can hit .275 in this environment, which is really good in a league that hits .235, and more Kasevitch's start getting playing time. Like some 'no-power-bro' team hit's .260 .330 .390 and score 720 runs, which is enough these days and the trends start reversing a bit.

[Barrelsandbombs]

[Spanky99]

[AMS528]

One prospect for the Jays there (Yesavage), and he's 94th and we just drafted him, so we barely missed having no prospects on this list. Tied with the Yankees and Astros for least, but the Yankees have the 14th ranked prospect. Houston was in the same boat practically with their only prospect on the list ranked 89th.

 

Who's been our highest prospect on any of these lists (BA etc.)? Fangraphs Board has Jake Bloss at 84th.

[Brownie19]

Little update...positive stuff.

 

Blue Jays LHP prospect, Kendry Rojas threw three scoreless innings in the Arizona Fall League on Wednesday, striking out two and allowing two hits.

 

Rojas missed the first few months of the year with a shoulder injury but returned to High-A in early July and posted a 2.59 ERA with 69 strikeouts and 14 walks in 62 2/3 innings. The 21-year-old is now up to the mid-90s on his fastball while also featuring a plus changeup, gyro slider, and cutter. He is an intriguing arm in the Blue Jays system and will likely start the 2025 season in Double-A.

[Laika]

Jays have 7.5% odds of getting the first overall pick

 

22.45 percent -- Rockies (.377)

22.45 -- Marlins (.383)

17.96 -- Angels (.389)

10.20 -- Nationals (.438)

7.48 -- Blue Jays (.457)

5.31 -- Pirates (.469)

3.67 -- Reds (.475)

2.45 -- Rangers (.481)

1.90 -- Giants (.494)

1.50 -- Rays (.494)

1.22 -- Red Sox (.500)

1.09 -- Twins (.506)

0.82 -- Cardinals (.512)

0.68 -- Cubs (.512)

0.53 -- Mariners (.525)

0.27 -- D-backs (.549)

0.0 -- White Sox (.253 – ineligible for lottery pick)

0.0 -- A’s (.426 – ineligible for lottery pick)

[L54]

I will be satisfied with not losing position

[G-Snarls]

Jays have 7.5% odds of getting the first overall pick

 

22.45 percent -- Rockies (.377)

22.45 -- Marlins (.383)

17.96 -- Angels (.389)

10.20 -- Nationals (.438)

7.48 -- Blue Jays (.457)

5.31 -- Pirates (.469)

3.67 -- Reds (.475)

2.45 -- Rangers (.481)

1.90 -- Giants (.494)

1.50 -- Rays (.494)

1.22 -- Red Sox (.500)

1.09 -- Twins (.506)

0.82 -- Cardinals (.512)

0.68 -- Cubs (.512)

0.53 -- Mariners (.525)

0.27 -- D-backs (.549)

0.0 -- White Sox (.253 – ineligible for lottery pick)

0.0 -- A’s (.426 – ineligible for lottery pick)

 

And a 25.2% chance of getting a top 3 pick

 

Here's a deeper breakdown:

 

]

[G-Snarls]

It helps that the White Sox and A's get bumped!

[Spanky99]

Anyone know how Orelvis is doing with Licey, I can't find s***, just that he's the #2 player to watch in LIDOM?

[John_Havok]

Anyone know how Orelvis is doing with Licey, I can't find s***, just that he's the #2 player to watch in LIDOM?

 

Hit a bomb the other day, that's all I know

 

Also, no updates on whether his wife is pregnant yet.

[Spanky99]

Hit a bomb the other day, that's all I know

 

Also, no updates on whether his wife is pregnant yet.

 

lol... Clomiphene it is.

[max silver]

Anyone know how Orelvis is doing with Licey, I can't find s***, just that he's the #2 player to watch in LIDOM?

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=martin001ore

[Spanky99]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=martin001ore

 

Thanks, of course a dinger. lol

[jerb]

[Jimcanuck]

BA has the Jays 6th overall in minor league hitting, based on an analysis of statcast data

[L54]

BA has the Jays 6th overall in minor league hitting, based on an analysis of statcast data

 

The tides are turning. Make Toronto Offensive Again

[Spanky99]

BA has the Jays 6th overall in minor league hitting, based on an analysis of statcast data

 

Yeah,read that too, it's not as bleak as people suggest.

[Laika]

BA has the Jays 6th overall in minor league hitting, based on an analysis of statcast data

 

What analysis exactly?