Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Olerud363]

this organization...

 

Top 10 according to MLB

 

Tiedemann - 12 innings 5.68 ERA

Orelvis - Suspended 80 games for Steroid use

Nimmala - Can't stick in Dunnedin, hitting .180. sort of back in Dunnedin but sitting most of the time trying to fix his swing.

Barriera - Fat and out for 2 years or something. No idea don't even bother to check.

Leo Jiminez - Having a nice season and could be 4 years of good Santiago Espinal at some point

Barger - Some nice physical skills and trying to make them work in the MLB.

Roden - Kind of hitting .255 now instead of .320 but working on the power

Emanuel Bonilla - LOL .230 massive k-rate, in junior Varsity morning league.. don't care if he is 18.

Macko - decent I hear

Rojas - Know nothing about him and can't be bothered to check. Maybe he is good? Let me know.

 

Bonus - Jace Bohrofen, who we had some hopes for is hitting .218 in a league he is suppose to mash in... lol. I mean Ryan Nodo made it, but Ryan Nodo hit like Barry Bonds in A+.

[Jonn]

Leo Jiminez can actually play SS and Defend. Don't like the Espinal comparison.

[Olerud363]

Leo Jiminez can actually play SS and Defend. Don't like the Espinal comparison.

 

 

The comparison isn't to Espinal overall, it's to Espinal at his best. Espinal was suppose to be a good player, decent defense, average on base, and was like that for maybe 8 months in 2021 and early 2022.

 

Sometimes this happens. Guy's peak at 27 at Espinal was probably already peaked when he got here, and started to decline after a year or so. Jiminez will get there earlier, and probably is a bit better, so he might be able to provide 4 years of the performance that Espinal did between 2021 and first half 2022.

[Olerud363]

Nimmila did what he was suppose to do in the jr. varsity morning league and is back in Dunnedin hitting a bit better.

 

Nimmila walked more in like 7 games than Bonilla has in 33.

 

Nimmila has a pulse and we look to see if he can get to Vancouver in the next year (Jays probably shouldn't send him to Vancouver right away next year, unless he really destroys Dunnedin the rest of the way).

 

Bonilla on the other hand is awful. Will he ever get to Dunnedin? Will Tucker Toman ever get out of Dunnedin?

[Olerud363]

Nimmila did what he was suppose to do in the jr. varsity morning league and is back in Dunnedin hitting a bit better.

 

Nimmila walked more in like 7 games than Bonilla has in 33.

 

Nimmila has a pulse and we look to see if he can get to Vancouver in the next year (Jays probably shouldn't send him to Vancouver right away next year, unless he really destroys Dunnedin the rest of the way).

 

Bonilla on the other hand is awful. Will he ever get to Dunnedin? Will Tucker Toman ever get out of Dunnedin?

 

Nimmala (not Nimmila) hit .230 .460 .500 or something in the Junior Varsity morning league and got back to Dunnedin. Bonilla is hitting .220 .290 .330 or something in JR Varsity morning league.

 

I think Nimmala has some nice raw power. There is a video of him hitting homers like a grown man. The fan beyond the outfield fence takes a small step in (because in that league they mostly just go over the fence by a few feet), then has to turn around and watch it hit the back fence. Nice stuff.

 

https://www.milb.com/video/arjun-nimmala-s-solo-homer?t=playerid-805796

[MikeM3]

Nimmala (not Nimmila) hit .230 .460 .500 or something in the Junior Varsity morning league and got back to Dunnedin. Bonilla is hitting .220 .290 .330 or something in JR Varsity morning league.

 

I think Nimmala has some nice raw power. There is a video of him hitting homers like a grown man. The fan beyond the outfield fence takes a small step in (because in that league they mostly just go over the fence by a few feet), then has to turn around and watch it hit the back fence. Nice stuff.

 

https://www.milb.com/video/arjun-nimmala-s-solo-homer?t=playerid-805796

 

Ninmala is a bet on rotational bat speed

[James Key]

I think our development coaches have to go. We don’t have any hitting success stories at all. They have hand ample opportunities and we have really nothing to show for it. Is it scouting or the dev teams fault?

 

Why can’t we spend on the coaching? Schneider is a crystallized example of the orgs philosophy. Get coaching on the cheap and hope they fit In and become good soldiers.

 

We never seem to hire guys with actual MLB experience via playing or coaching. It’s frustrating. And hearing about Bonilla, Nimalla, Toman, Doughty etc makes me wonder about the orgs philosophy even more.

[gruber92]

I think our development coaches have to go. We don’t have any hitting success stories at all. They have hand ample opportunities and we have really nothing to show for it. Is it scouting or the dev teams fault?

 

Why can’t we spend on the coaching? Schneider is a crystallized example of the orgs philosophy. Get coaching on the cheap and hope they fit In and become good soldiers.

 

We never seem to hire guys with actual MLB experience via playing or coaching. It’s frustrating. And hearing about Bonilla, Nimalla, Toman, Doughty etc makes me wonder about the orgs philosophy even more.

 

If you're still wondering about team management at this stage, then you must have been living on a different planet or something.

[James Key]

I don’t follow the team everyday. I come here a lot and some other sites for minor league updates.

 

I think our scouting staff if anything needs a shake up. Farrell jr isn’t touting any real success stories. Nothing looks good for this org coming from his direction.

[OtisNixonFan]

I don’t follow the team everyday. I come here a lot and some other sites for minor league updates.

 

I think our scouting staff if anything needs a shake up. Farrell jr isn’t touting any real success stories. Nothing looks good for this org coming from his direction.

 

Macko looks good. Outside of that.. Horwitz, Roden and sweet f*** all.

[Spanky__99]

Orelvis dropped from 51 down to 74 in the BA mid season ranks. For obvious reasons.

 

Ricky T dropped from 22 to 76, for obvious reasons. Welp... I'm not too worried yet.

 

ETA; Oh yeah, Wood is the new #1 overall.

Edited July 4, 2024 by Spanky99

[Laika]

Orelvis dropped from 51 down to 74 in the BA mid season ranks. For obvious reasons.

 

Ricky T dropped from 22 to 76, for obvious reasons. Welp... I'm not too worried yet.

 

ETA; Oh yeah, Wood is the new #1 overall.

 

wtf do you mean you are "not too worried"

 

the only thing the Jays can develop seems to be 25 year old platoon bats

[Krylian]

wtf do you mean you are "not too worried"

 

the only thing the Jays can develop seems to be 25 year old platoon bats

 

Spanky's not worried...for obvious reasons.

[Laika]

Orelvis dropped from 51 down to 74 in the BA mid season ranks. For obvious reasons.

 

Ricky T dropped from 22 to 76, for obvious reasons. Welp... I'm not too worried yet.

 

ETA; Oh yeah, Wood is the new #1 overall.

 

WTF DO YOU MEAN YOU ARE "not too worried"???!!!!

 

- expensive team

- every good player is either running out of team control (Vlad, Bo, Jansen, Kikuchi, Garcia, Romano) or just looks worse now (Gausman, Springer, Berrios, Varsho, Kirk, Manoah, Romano)

- horrible farm system

- no track record of developing anything other than 25 year old platoon hitters who play 2B/LF/1B

- everybody on the MLB team is declining early

- MLB team is evidently horrible at game prep and strategy

- front office clearly has their priorities all wrong when it comes to roster construction, drafting and development, coaching structure

- front office is not progressive at all from what we can see

- front office is scared to fire people

- corporate ownership who will be slow and heartless when it comes to the big and important decisions

- this GM whiffed completely on his last attempt at a quick rebuild or trading for MLB ready players (Drury, McKinney, Fisher, Waguespack, Kay, etc.)

 

 

The only way to "not be too worried" right now is to just embrace death or be completely nihilistic

[Spanky__99]

WTF DO YOU MEAN YOU ARE "not too worried"???!!!!

 

- expensive team

- every good player is either running out of team control (Vlad, Bo, Jansen, Kikuchi, Garcia, Romano) or just looks worse now (Gausman, Springer, Berrios, Varsho, Kirk, Manoah, Romano)

- horrible farm system

- no track record of developing anything other than 25 year old platoon hitters who play 2B/LF/1B

- everybody on the MLB team is declining early

- MLB team is evidently horrible at game prep and strategy

- front office clearly has their priorities all wrong when it comes to roster construction, drafting and development, coaching structure

- front office is not progressive at all from what we can see

- front office is scared to fire people

- corporate ownership who will be slow and heartless when it comes to the big and important decisions

- this GM whiffed completely on his last attempt at a quick rebuild or trading for MLB ready players (Drury, McKinney, Fisher, Waguespack, Kay, etc.)

 

 

The only way to "not be too worried" right now is to just embrace death or be completely nihilistic

 

Should I have bolded the *Welp... I'm not too worried yet* part along with the tongue in cheek emoji, dummy?

[L54]

The one thing I’m not worried about is having to take time off work to travel and catch a Jays playoff run

[Jimcanuck]

Should I have bolded the *Welp... I'm not too worried yet* part along with the tongue in cheek emoji, dummy?

 

It was quite subtle, Spank

[Spanky__99]

It was quite subtle, Spank

 

Oops...

[Laika]

Nimmala

 

hits in every game since getting promoted, .348/.444/.696 during that mini streak

 

with 11.1% BB and 14.8% K rates

 

5 XBH vs 4 strikeouts

[Krylian]

Nimmala

 

hits in every game since getting promoted, .348/.444/.696 during that mini streak

 

with 11.1% BB and 14.8% K rates

 

5 XBH vs 4 strikeouts

 

He's ready.

[Spanky__99]

Nimmala

 

hits in every game since getting promoted, .348/.444/.696 during that mini streak

 

with 11.1% BB and 14.8% K rates

 

5 XBH vs 4 strikeouts

 

Olerud has claimed him a bust, bro.

[Olerud363]

Olerud has claimed him a bust, bro.

 

I'm sure in a couple of posts I claimed he was done, but mostly I agreed with the guy who posted he might be Paul De Jong. Vlad and Bo were 6 months younger and older respectively than Nimalla in 2017 and they already were in high A+ hitting very well.

 

So nice to see him playing better and he is showing great raw power (and I've posted about that). Still a long road ahead. Not sure I said he would never have a hot week, just that guys with his k-rate don't have the greatest track record. Let's see what happens when he gets to high A, which still might be a year away.

 

Bonilla on the other hand....

 

Anyway give LTBF the poster of the year award now that Vlad is back as a top 3 hitter and Nimalla is on track to be Aaron Judge at short stop (but don't too long or they might go into slumps again).

[Krylian]

Olerud has claimed him a bust, bro.

 

I thought that was Bonilla.

[Spanky__99]

Beltre is going to be 20 in a month and is repeating low A. Nice to see the exit-V but Nimmala is hitting .167 with a terrible k rate.

 

This is just not what real prospects do as teenagers in low A.

 

Nimmala could turn it around but needs to do it soon, as it just seems like a first round pick shouldn't be having these kind of problems at low a.

 

Even guys that struggled a bit as teenagers but made it (Shawn Green, Alex Rios come to mind) were the .250 with no power but low k rate type. These guys that hit .200 and k 40% of the the time go no where.

 

Take a look at Vlad/Bo/Travis Snider as teenagers... and none of them even were able to hit mlb pitching at age 25 (half kidding).

 

D.J. Davis, Toman, those types go no where. Hope to see Nimmalla turn it around, but no way to suger coat it right now.

 

When Don Mattingly was 18 he struck out 6 times in 50 games. Nimmala strikes out 12 times as much. This tells us something already.

 

I totally concede that he can turn it around, but I've yet to see a list of 18 year olds who hit .200 and struck out 40% in low A as a teenager but became good big leaguers anyway.

 

SO far the list is no one has succeeded after such a start, so Nimmala will be the first after the other 1000 failed.

 

One of the hopes for this year was that Bonilla and Nimmala would become really good prospects and do what Vlad/Bo/Orelvis/Kirk did when teenagers... and come quick.

 

No doubt they have years to still become something. But the baseball gods took away two shots at some joy. The hope for a Paul Dejong in 2030 isn't joy, just a routine thing that every team has.

 

The Toronto Blue Jays - the most joyless, soulless, hopeless thing out there....

 

The amount of endorphins the Baltimore Orioles franchise provide their fans compared the the Blue Jays is like 1 million to 0. Was just in Baltimore and no one could stop talking about the pure joy their team brings the community...

 

Toronto - maybe we'll get Paul Dejong in many, many years!

 

It's a tough league for sure. Impact talent would still dominate it at 18 or 19. Major league players would hold their own.

 

Someone brought up Paul Dejong the other day, which wouldn't be a bad outcome in some ways. However Paul Dejong is a 'short peak' guy.

 

If Nimalla is Paul Degong it will take him forever to get here and he'll have a decent 2031, then hit his decline just when he hits arb.

 

The long peak guys f***ing destroy these leagues, do two levels a year, and you get them from age 22 through 30. Long peak guys. that's what you need.

 

Long peak guy. Good enough to get to MLB early. Good enough to stay late. Video game stats in the A ball.

 

Short peak guy. Takes a while to get to MLB not good enough to play much after 30. Holds his own in the A ball.

 

Not a guy. Hit's .200 with lots of strike outs in the A ball. May look good here and there especially if repeating a level, but gets stuck in double a.

 

There are exceptions to the rule

 

https://www.milb.com/player/enmanuel-bonilla-806962

 

Emanuel Bonilla hitting .243 .286 .414 with a 2 to 23 bb/k in a super low league he should be dominating. This is like the guys that play at 9:00 am before the real low level A league team plays.

 

He sucks. Nimilla and Bonilla have both had horrible seasons and yes they are young, but the odds are against them now.

 

I'm sort of double posting but the other guy mentioned in his thread we have no international players with fire, like Julio-Rod or Sota except for Vlad.

 

Does anyone have any concept of what those 3 did at 18 ? Really good players reach A+ at 18 hitting .345 with awesome k/bb. Players that are destined to make the majors hold their own at these leagues.

 

You know what Bonilla and Nimalla's future is? Go to New Hampshire watch the Beltre and De'Jesus guy. Nimmilla and Bonilla will be lucky if they get that far.

 

Give us an example of guys who hit like Nimmala and Bonilla at 18 with simillar k/bb and became stars? Or even made it to the majors.

 

I am sure you can find some because nothing is black and white, but you are a statistically illiterate moron.

 

If you think that extreme performances in the first 200 at bats of a guys career mean nothing then... well nothing I can do....

 

Your history is out there for everyone to see. For 3 years you kept telling us Vlad was close. He's close. He's almost there. He's close.

 

Out of the at least 100 times you told us Vlad was close, exactly 0 times did he return to hitting as his minor league numbers suggested he could.

 

You were completely wrong, but since data doesn't matter to you there is nothing I can do.

 

'Vlad's close'!

 

Vlad hit's .290 with a .400 slugging percentage

 

LTBF - told you he was gonna come back, hitting .290 again. Told you he was close.

 

OK. So f*** you. Nimalla is awesome. Bonilla is awesome.

 

They are hitting .200 combined with a terrible k rate. Neither can stick in low A Dunnedin (Bonilla can't even get there).

 

But LTBF has looked at their swings... stats don't matter.

 

I am sure new posters are tired of seeing fights between old time posters, which there are a lot of lately, and I guess I am making the problem worse.

 

However just some context. After 2021, starting around May of 2022 LTBF claimed literally at least 100 times that Vlad was on the verge of returning to his 2021 form.

 

It just became a joke "He's close", "He's almost there", "He's close".

 

I am sure to cover his ass LTBF will claim he just meant Vlad was going to return to hitting .275 or something. Really? Does anybody think that LTFB meant Vlad was going to return to his 2022-2024 form? Which he was already at. As Vlad marched through 2022 to now, hitting OK the whole time, LTBF constantly told us Vlad was 'close'. 'Close'. CLose to what? Close to returning to being 2021 Vlad. So close.

 

He's close. He's close. Just missed that one. Real close. Bo sucks. Bo just grounded into a double play. Bo sucks. Vlad's close. Tango is wrong. Tango is wrong. Tango is here? On this board? He is wrong. Bo would have 70 errors if it wasn't for Vlad.

 

OK. Just to be precise, LTBF did not say the last one. Everything else he said, and he was wrong on.

 

Vlad was never close to returning to his 2021 form and never will. Nimalla and Bonilla have a much longer road ahead as it should be obvious they aren't storming through the minors in 3 years. That ship has sailed.

 

Reality. Sucks.

 

So who are the players that struggled at 18, struggled to the point they couldn't even stick in low A and became impact talent? I can't remember a single player in Blue Jays history who did this.

 

Arguably Shawn Green and Alex Rios are two, but even they hit like .270 with good k rates at 18, they just didn't show power (yet). Derek Jeter at first glance.

 

However that is only a product of the funny way age is measured. When Jeter was 3 months older than Nimalla, in his second season, the year he turned 19, he was doing fine in low A. Jeter was 18 years 9 months, Nimalla 18 years 6 months.

 

Of course across the entire history of baseball you can find a few players who turned it around. I mean it's only been 2 months, Nimalla could finish strong, who knows.

 

Just that if you look at history, even the history of this franchise, D.J. Davis, Kevin Ahrens, Miguel Negron, the like 15-20 overall draft picks, and compare them to Travis Snider, Brett Lawrie, Bo Bichette, you could already see the differences after 2 months in A-ball.

 

I remember when Jays traded Brett Wallace for Anthony Gose there was huge debate on the old board. And the Gose haters were right because they intuitively knew just glancing at his stats, that even though he was just a teenager, the shape of his numbers showed that he couldn't hit and wouldn't.

 

Davis Schneider in rookie ball had a 36-36 bb/k, Bonilla is 2-27

Danny Jansen 18 in rookie ball had a 21-10 bb/k in rookie ball Bonilla is 2-27

 

Danny Jansen 18 in rookie ball struck out 10 times in 36 games, Nimmala 43 times in 29 games

 

Your bringing up players who were the opposite of Bonilla and Nimalla

 

Batting average in 40 games is not reliable. k/bb is the worrisome thing and starts to get reliable pretty quick.

 

And this is also why Bonilla, Nimilla, and Toman are in trouble. They have horrible k/bb at age appropriate leagues and players like that often never get past their age appropriate league (like Toman... 8 months in Dunnedin, probably will never leave except to go work at Costco)

 

this organization...

 

Top 10 according to MLB

 

Tiedemann - 12 innings 5.68 ERA

Orelvis - Suspended 80 games for Steroid use

Nimmala - Can't stick in Dunnedin, hitting .180. sort of back in Dunnedin but sitting most of the time trying to fix his swing.

Barriera - Fat and out for 2 years or something. No idea don't even bother to check.

Leo Jiminez - Having a nice season and could be 4 years of good Santiago Espinal at some point

Barger - Some nice physical skills and trying to make them work in the MLB.

Roden - Kind of hitting .255 now instead of .320 but working on the power

Emanuel Bonilla - LOL .230 massive k-rate, in junior Varsity morning league.. don't care if he is 18.

Macko - decent I hear

Rojas - Know nothing about him and can't be bothered to check. Maybe he is good? Let me know.

 

Bonus - Jace Bohrofen, who we had some hopes for is hitting .218 in a league he is suppose to mash in... lol. I mean Ryan Nodo made it, but Ryan Nodo hit like Barry Bonds in A+.

 

I thought that was Bonilla.

 

Both at ad nauseam and they are teenagers, its absurd.

[glory]

Nimmala up to a 106 wRC+ in A ball now. Holding his own at 18 after a brutal start. Still very much a boom or bust prospect, but the season certainly looks a little better now. A front office change, if/when it happens, would come at a great time for him and others in low A. Don't corrupt anyone with even a modicum of upside by telling them to level their swing to hit more grounders in order to reduce swing and miss. Let that mindset drift off with Atkins, Donnie, and the rest of the think tank currently in charge.

[Olerud363]

I thought that was Bonilla.

 

Both of them. They are young and we don't have much data on them, but my point was the high k rates and struggle to stay (or even reach in Bonilla's case) Dunnedin were already meaningful data (even with low sample size).

 

Since I started posting about this we have another 6 weeks or so of data. Nimalla was a much different player in Rookie ball than Bonilla (way higher walk rate) and is back in Dunnedin hitting better. Bonilla is hitting pretty bad. Down to .194.

 

They are teenagers, but it's like we don't already have data on hundreds of teenage players and their outcomes. Just look at the current team. Vlad, Bo, Jansen, Kirk, Schneider all played as teenagers and all had decent k/bb. The guys with bad k/bb didn't make it.

 

Fans know this intuitively How many fans already started hating Anthony Gose or Alex De Jesus because of high k rate even while they were hitting OK as teenagers?

 

Always exceptions. And like I said with another 6 weeks of data Nimalla is atleast is headed in the right direction.

[Daniel Labude]

Nimmala up to a 106 wRC+ in A ball now. Holding his own at 18 after a brutal start. Still very much a boom or bust prospect, but the season certainly looks a little better now. A front office change, if/when it happens, would come at a great time for him and others in low A. Don't corrupt anyone with even a modicum of upside by telling them to level their swing to hit more grounders in order to reduce swing and miss. Let that mindset drift off with Atkins, Donnie, and the rest of the think tank currently in charge.

 

This, but do you think they will really let them all go lol

[Terminator]

Who the hell is this Gabriel Cancel guy in Buffalo?

 

Looks like he was playing Indy ball until the Jays signed him in late June. He's got 6 homers and a 1.474 OPS in 39 ABs.

 

https://www.milb.com/player/gabriel-cancel-663708

[Laika]

Who the hell is this Gabriel Cancel guy in Buffalo?

 

Looks like he was playing Indy ball until the Jays signed him in late June. He's got 6 homers and a 1.474 OPS in 39 ABs.

 

https://www.milb.com/player/gabriel-cancel-663708

 

lmao wtf

 

apparently he is also an actual defender too. like, infielder. shortstop?

 

https://www.wvgazettemail.com/sports/charleston_dirty_birds/atlantic-league-baseball-shortstop-cancel-doing-it-all-for-dirty-birds/article_75820d48-e40a-5664-9bbd-bdf3a0923bf5.html

[Terminator]

In the Atlantic League he was third in homers, third in steals and 5th in walks. Been playing mostly 3B and SS in Buffalo.

 

I have no idea how good the Atlantic League is. Looks like a ton of MLB flameouts. Frank Schwindel, for example, has had big league success in the past and projects for a wRC+ of 92 in the big leagues this year, is also tearing up the Atlantic League. But he's a no glove 1B.

 

So maybe Cancel could be a bench guy or something. Regardless, he's definitely worth a look in AAA.