Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[keggy]

I do wonder if Vlad lost his ability to pound the high pitch because he is focused on increasing his launch angle?

 

That is absolutely a possibility.

[wamco]

Lantigua is back

[gruber92]

Lantigua is back

 

Lantigua is going to surprise a lot of people.

[Jimcanuck]

Lantigua is going to surprise a lot of people.

 

How do you know this

[Olerud363]

How do you know this

 

He was fourth in the international league in on base percentage. Horwitz was first. Lantigua was also 4th in doubles.

 

Not sure what it all means. One thing I was thinking is that the offensive numbers were bat-s*** crazy in the IL this year, so don't take them seriously.

 

But...

 

Howritz and Lantiqua were still league leaders. Not like they came 18th in on base or something. Still have to treat them as league leaders, however meaningful that is.

[gruber92]

How do you know this

 

I said Ryan Goins would stick, right?

[Spanky__99]

Baseball America's Top 10 Blue Jays Edition. Some big jumps...

 

Headshot of Ricky Tiedemann

 

1. Ricky Tiedemann

LHP

 

Ht: 6'4" | Wt: 220 | B-T: L-L

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk:65/Very High.

 

Track Record: Teams likely regret passing on Tiedemann out of Lakewood (Calif.) High in the five-round 2020 draft. In pro ball, the lefthander has quickly developed one of the highest ceilings among pitching prospects. Tiedemann showed progress at Golden West (Calif.) JC in 2021, prompting the Blue Jays to draft him in the third round and sign him for a below-slot $644,800. He debuted with Low-A Dunedin in 2022, showing a jump in velocity and stuff across his arsenal. On the back of his elite stuff and strong performance, he climbed to Double-A that August. Tiedemann entered 2023 spring training with an opportunity to pitch his way to Toronto. He instead was shut down with left shoulder soreness and got a late start to his season. After four dominant but truncated Double-A starts, Tiedemann returned to the injured list with a left biceps sprain on May 5. He did not return to Double-A New Hampshire until Aug. 11. He made seven appearances there and one for Triple-A Buffalo before finishing with four starts in the Arizona Fall League, where he was league pitcher of the year. More critically, Tiedemann exceeded 70 pitches and five innings three times in the AFL, something he had not done since July 1, 2022.

 

Scouting Report: Tiedemann is a tall, strong-bodied lefthander with the build prototypical of workhorse starters. Despite his physical appearance, his health and durability have been major question marks. When healthy, Tiedemann has an outlier combination of velocity, movement and deception, delivering the ball from a low three-quarters slot. His fastball sits 94-97 mph and touches 98 mph. He generates below-average ride but heavy armside run that plays up due to his low slot and ability to hide the ball. While Tiedemann’s best pitch historically has been his changeup, that pitch backed up in 2023 as concerns about the difference in release height and arm slot compared with his fastball became a larger issue. His changeup features heavy tumble and fade as he kills lift and generates a heavy dose of armside run. His slider became his primary secondary in 2023. It’s a low-80s pitch with sweep and ride. Tiedemann shows an uncanny ability to manipulate his slider and land it in the zone. The pitch generated whiffs at a rate of 39% in-zone in 2023 as well as a 49% rate of called-plus-swinging strikes. As the Blue Jays continue to refine Tiedemann’s arsenal it should continue to improve, giving him three plus or better pitches, including one secondary pitch to neutralize hitters of either handedness. Tiedemann’s command can come and go, but it’s reasonable to think a large chunk of the season was impacted by injury.

 

The Future: No one questions that Tiedemann has the tools and attributes to develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter. It’s only a matter of whether his body will cooperate. A strong season at Triple-A in 2024 will land him in Toronto.

 

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 55.

 

Headshot of Orelvis Martinez

2. Orelvis Martinez

SS

 

Ht: 5'11" | Wt: 200 | B-T: R-R

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk:55/High.

 

Track Record: Martinez signed out of the Dominican Republic for $3.51 million in 2018. He skipped the Dominican Summer League and made his pro debut in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2019, hitting .275/.352/.549 in 40 games as a 17-year-old. Martinez moved quickly following the pandemic-lost 2020 season, seeing both levels of Class A in 2021 and spending all of 2022 at Double-A New Hampshire. After an uneven showing as a 20-year-old at Double-A, Martinez returned to the level in 2023. After a slow start, he hit .268/.390/.557 from May 1 through the end of the first half. He was promoted to Triple-A Buffalo on July 18 and spent the winter with Licey of the Dominican League.

 

Scouting Report: Martinez entered 2023 trending toward a power-over-everything hitter with major questions around his bat-to-ball skills and swing decisions. Instead, he showed a more refined and patient approach without sacrificing his aggressiveness. Martinez showed a willingness to make pitchers work and in turn saw better pitches in the zone. He made the most of those opportunities as his simple, powerful swing easily backspins his best contact to his pull side. Martinez has always had strong hands and the ability to get to plus power in games. His improvements in approach and contact have allowed him to project to get to his power against more advanced pitchers. Martinez is a fringe-average runner who will turn in an average run time on occasion. He’s not rangy afield but shows the ability to play multiple infield positions. He has focused on shortstop and third base in pro ball, but his best long-term position is likely second base, where he has enough range and his plus arm would be an asset.

 

The Future: Martinez is a bat-first second baseman with the ability to hit 30-plus home runs at peak.

 

Scouting Grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Fielding: 45 | Arm: 60.

 

Headshot of Arjun Nimmala

3. Arjun Nimmala

SS

 

Ht: 6'1" | Wt: 170 | B-T: R-R

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk:55/Extreme.

 

Track Record: Nimmala became the highest drafted first-generation Indian player when the Blue Jays selected him with the 20th overall pick in 2023. They signed him for $3 million, or about 80% of slot value for the pick. As a youth, Nimmala played primarily cricket before converting to the baseball diamond. During his senior season at Strawberry Crest High outside Tampa, Nimmala was selected Gatorade Player of the Year for the state of Florida and won the Wade Boggs Award as the best player in Hillsborough County. Nimmala made his pro debut in August in the Florida Complex League, playing in nine games and walking 14 times with eight strikeouts.

 

Scouting Report: Nimmala is a young, projectable infielder with plenty of tools to still develop. He has an average build that projects to add strength in the coming years. He shows at least average bat-to-ball skills with a simple righthanded swing that has a steeper path optimized for power. After often expanding the zone at a high rate as an amateur, Nimmala showed a more refined approach in his brief pro debut. He has natural loft in his swing that allows him to make his best contact in the air consistently. Nimmala possesses plus bat speed and his body should continue to get stronger in the coming years. He’s an average runner, but his quick footwork allows him to cover ground at shortstop, where his hands and actions are above-average. His above-average arm strength should be the final ingredient that allows him to stick at shortstop.

 

The Future: Nimmala has plenty of tools and showed more refinement at the plate in his brief pro time. He projects as a power-hitting shortstop with above-average defensive ability who, if he develops, could hold down the position in Toronto for an extended spell.

 

Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 55.

 

Headshot of Brandon Barriera

4. Brandon Barriera

LHP

 

Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 180 | B-T: L-L

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk:55/Extreme.

 

Track Record: Barriera went 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA in eight starts as a senior for American Heritage High in South Florida before deciding to sit out the remainder of the 2022 season to prepare for the draft. The Blue Jays selected him with the 23rd pick and signed him for just under $3.6 million. He made his pro debut in May 2023 after dealing with a shoulder issue in spring training. Barriera made four starts before heading to the injured list with an elbow sprain. He didn’t return until mid July, then made three starts before biceps soreness returned him to the IL.

 

Scouting Report: Since his time as an amateur, Barriera has added mass at the expense of his athleticism. He returned looking noticeably larger than his listed 180 pounds. The added strength didn’t translate to conditioning, and Barriera dealt with a trio of injuries. His fastball sits 92-94 mph with heavy cut, and he showed the ability to command his fastball at an average level to set up his slider. His slider is a plus bordering on double-plus sweeper that sits 82-84 mph with nearly a foot of horizontal break on average. He generated a high rates of swings-and-misses against the pitch and flashed the ability to dominate with the pitch in the zone. He showed a mid-to-high-80s changeup with parachuting drop. He threw his changeup just 14 times across all of his appearances. He also flashed a curveball with two-plane break in the upper 70s but it was thrown only a few times this season. His command of his slider and fastball are average, and that pair of pitches accounts for a majority of his usage.

 

The Future: Barriera is a risky prospect with a wide range of outcomes. He will need to improve his conditioning, add velocity and develop a third pitch to stay in the rotation. Otherwise he has the signature pitch to make it as a high-leverage reliever.

 

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 65 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50

 

Headshot of Addison Barger

5. Addison Barger

SS

 

Ht: 6'0" | Wt: 210 | B-T: L-R

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk:50/High.

 

Track Record: Drafted in 2018, Barger spent most of 2019 on the restricted list before emerging with added power from the 2020 pandemic shutdown. He had a strong season in 2021 with Low-A Dunedin before breaking out in 2022 by hitting .308/.378/.555 across three levels and reaching Triple-A. Barger returned to Buffalo in 2023 and struggled initially before an April 28 trip to the injured list with elbow pain. After an examination found no structural damage, Barger returned to Buffalo on June 21 and hit .254/.358/.424 over the final 68 games. He showed improved plate discipline upon his return via rates of 19% strikeouts and nearly 14% walks.

 

Scouting Report: After showing a more aggressive approach and more in-game power in 2021 and 2022, Barger showed more patience in 2023 and a toned-down launch angle. This in turn produced a more consistent bat path, and he showed improvements in contact, in-zone contact and swing decisions. Barger traded some fly balls for line drives and ground balls, but he closed some of the holes in his swing. While he hit for less power in 2023, his underlying exit velocity data improved across the board, with his average exit velocity jumping more than 3 mph and his 90th percentile EV increasing by 2 mph to 106 mph. Barger is a fringe-average runner and not a threat to steal bases. In the field, he is unlikely to stick at shortstop full time, and he saw time in right field and at third base and second base in 2023. He has a plus arm that could work at a variety of positions, but it’s a matter of cleaning up some of his actions and footwork.

 

The Future: Barger is a versatile lefthanded hitter who has improved his hit tool while learning to play right field. He is a super-utility type with above-average hitting ability.

 

Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 45 | Fielding: 45 | Arm: 60.

 

Headshot of Kendry Rojas

6. Kendry Rojas

LHP

 

Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 190 | B-T: L-L

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk:55/Extreme.

 

Track Record: Rojas signed for $215,000 out of Cuba in October 2020 and debuted the following summer in the Florida Complex League. He began 2022 at Low-A Dunedin making eight appearances before a lat injury put him on the injured list for a large chunk of the season. Rojas returned to Dunedin in 2023 and made 15 starts as part of 20 total appearances. He pitched 84 innings in total. Rojas ranked among the Florida State League leaders in several categories as he finished the season with a 3.75 ERA, a 23.4% strikeout rate and a 9.4% walk rate as a 20-year-old.

 

Scouting Report: Rojas has a whippy arm action with good arm speed and delivers the ball from a low three-quarters slot. He mixes a trio of pitches in his four-seam fastball, slider and changeup. Rojas’ fastball sits 92-93 mph and touches 94-95 at peak with above-average ride and cut. He commands the pitch at a fringe-average level, with intermittent bouts of wildness. Rojas’ primary secondary pitch is a mid-80s slider with some cut that he shows advanced feel to throw. It generated whiffs in and out of the zone in 2023. His changeup is a mid-to-high-80s pitch without heavy tumble or fade. Still, it was an effective chase pitch in 2023 and drove whiffs out of the zone. Rojas can frequently get out of sync mechanically, spinning off his plant foot at release. As he refines his mechanics, he should find greater consistency with his strike-throwing. Rojas has a projectable arsenal of pitches with command that should improve with time.

 

The Future: Rojas is a projectable lefthander who projects as a No. 4 starter. He is ready for an assignment to High-A Vancouver in 2024.

 

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50.

 

Headshot of Leo Jimenez

7. Leo Jimenez

SS

 

Ht: 5'10" | Wt: 215 | B-T: R-R

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk:45/High.

 

Track Record: Jimenez was considered one of the top players to come out of Panama in the last decade when he signed for $825,000 in 2017. He endured two injury-shortened seasons in 2021 and 2022, missing time with shoulder and hand injuries. Jimenez began 2023 with Double-A New Hampshire, making 76 starts for the Fisher Cats primarily at shortstop and hitting .287/.372/.436 with a 15.9% strikeout rate. He earned a promotion to Triple-A Buffalo in late August.

 

Scouting Report: Jimenez does not wow with loud tools or flashy play, but he’s an instinctual, disciplined ballplayer. He employs a simple swing with a direct path and average bat speed. He shows an ability to adjust his hands and make a high rate of contact. Jimenez rarely swings and misses in the strike zone and shows advanced swing decisions. He’s patient but not passive, regularly attacking strikes. Jimenez shows sneaky power, but it’s mostly in the form of line drives. He began to show the ability to pull the ball in the air without forcing it, hinting at untapped power. His underlying exit velocity data is above-average for his age, with a 88.5 mph average and a 90th percentile EV of 104.2. He’s a fringe-average runner capable of clocking an average run time on a hustle play down the line. He’s not a basestealing threat but has a quick first step and good infield instincts. He shows an average arm at shortstop, but his quick release and good internal clock allow him to make a majority of plays. Jimenez may end up at second base due to the limitations of his arm.

 

The Future: Jimenez is a solid all-around player who will likely break-in as a utilityman but should develop into a second-division regular over time.

 

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 45 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 50.

 

Headshot of Davis Schneider

8. Davis Schneider

2B

 

Ht: 5'9" | Wt: 190 | B-T: R-R

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk:40/Medium.

 

Track Record: Signed in the 28th round for $50,000 in 2017, Schneider has been one of the best underdog stories in recent memory. The Blue Jays left him exposed to the Rule 5 draft after the 2021 and 2022 seasons despite above-average offensive performances in consecutive seasons. He began 2023 at Triple-A Buffalo, where he hit .275/.416/.553 with 21 home runs in 87 games. He earned a callup to Toronto on Aug. 4 and hit a home run off James Paxton in his first major league at-bat. Schneider hit .276/.404/.603 with eight home runs in 35 games. He made Toronto’s postseason roster but did not appear in a game.

 

Scouting Report: Undersized and somewhat positionless, Schneider is a bat-first player with an advanced plate approach. His bat-to-ball skills are fringy due to a longer swing with a steeper bat path. His advanced approach at the plate and ability to discern balls from strikes limits his exposure to pitches outside the zone. Schneider struggles with offspeed pitches and curveballs but does damage against fastballs and different slider types. He has above-average power potential despite just average exit velocities due to his excellent launch angles that allow him to get the most out of his power. He showed the ability to get to his power consistently in his brief MLB debut. Schneider is a fringe-average runner who isn’t much of a threat to steal a base. In the field, Schneider is a well below-average defender at second base with a below-average arm. He saw some time in left field, but Schneider’s best long-term position is DH.

 

The Future: Schneider is an above-average hitter with a three-true-outcomes profile. He can carve out a role as a bat-driven second-division regular.

 

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 45 | Fielding: 30 | Arm: 40.

 

Headshot of Alan Roden

9. Alan Roden

OF

 

Ht: 5'11" | Wt: 215 | B-T: L-R

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk:45 Risk: High.

 

Track Record: Roden maintained freshman eligibility into his third season at Creighton after redshirting in 2019 and seeing just three games of action during the shortened 2020 season. He spurned draft interest following his 2021 freshman campaign in order to complete his physics degree. The Blue Jays drafted Roden in the third round in 2022 and signed him for an under-slot $497,500. Assigned to High-A Vancouver in 2023, he hit his way to Double-A New Hampshire on July 19 and batted .310/.421/.460 in 46 games at the higher level.

 

Scouting Report: Roden has always shown elite bat-to-ball skills and approach. He has a stockier build with broad shoulders but is a better athlete than he appears. Roden has an unusual setup and swing, as he sets up with his hands high above his head in a similar fashion to Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel. This is an alteration from Roden’s setup during college, when his bat rested on his shoulder in a deep crouch. Roden is now more upright and his front leg drift has been replaced by a more traditional leg kick. Despite the unusual setup and mechanics, Roden is able to control his barrel with high accuracy, rarely swinging and missing. He shows fringe-average game power, but it’s not a matter of hard contact. It’s a lack of lift in his bat path. Most of Roden’s hardest-hit balls in play are line drives. He’s an average runner underway, which allows him to play an average to perhaps a touch better defense in the corner outfield. Roden has an above-average arm that plays well in the corners.

 

The Future: Roden has a hit tool-driven profile with limited power upside due to his unusual swing and setup. He can be a solid second-division regular with the ability to play an outfield corner and provide high batting averages and on-base ability.

 

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 55.

 

Headshot of Connor Cooke

10. Connor Cooke

RHP

 

Ht: 6'1" | Wt: 203 | B-T: R-R

 

Age: null

 

BA Grade/Risk:45/High.

 

Track Record: After coming out of the bullpen for two seasons at Louisiana-Lafayette, Cooke made the jump to the rotation in his third season. He went 7-3 with a 2.03 ERA with 90 strikeouts and 37 walks in 79.2 innings as a starter in 2021, prompting the Blue Jays to draft him in the 10th round and sign him for $141,900. After breaking camp with Low-A Dunedin in 2022, Cooke worked as a multi-innings piggyback starter. He was promoted to High-A Vancouver on Aug. 2 and has been exclusively a reliever since. He broke camp with Vancouver in 2023 and made nine appearances before he was promoted to Double-A New Hampshire. He spent a majority of his season at Double-A before earning a late-August promotion to Buffalo.

 

Scouting Report: One of the best athletes in the Blue Jays organization, Cooke saw a giant leap in stuff in 2023. He mixes three pitches, all of which can flash above-average. He has a unique ability to ride a fastball, spin a breaking ball and turn over a changeup. Cooke’s fastball sits 95-96 mph and touches 97-98 at peak, with ride, run and a difficult angle for hitters to get on plane. He spins his sweeper slider at 2,800-3,000 rpm with nearly a foot and a half of sweep on average. His slider sits 83-85 mph. He shows average command of his fastball and slider and fringe-average command of his changeup. His offspeed is infrequently used but shows heavy tumble and fade when he lands it. Overall, Cooke shows high-leverage stuff and intensity.

 

The Future: Cooke is a high-powered reliever who has refined his arsenal with a potential high-leverage relief future. His 40.6% strikeout rate ranked third among minor league relievers with at least 30 appearances in 2023 and he is in line to make his major league debut in 2024.

 

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Looking forward to some Cooke in 2024.

[Spanky__99]

I said Ryan Goins would stick, right?

 

[Terminator]

Baseball America's Top 10 Blue Jays Edition. Some big jumps...

 

There's a ton of interesting s*** in there.

 

So if Orelvis and Barger aren't really 3B anymore that would explain why the Jays are interested in bringing back Chapman or signing Candelario.

 

Makes me wonder why they didn't beat out the ham sandwich the Mariners got in return for Suarez. But perhaps the M's weren't interested in getting fleeced by Atkins again.

[Laika]

There's a ton of interesting s*** in there.

 

So if Orelvis and Barger aren't really 3B anymore that would explain why the Jays are interested in bringing back Chapman or signing Candelario.

 

Makes me wonder why they didn't beat out the ham sandwich the Mariners got in return for Suarez. But perhaps the M's weren't interested in getting fleeced by Atkins again.

 

I would assume bad internal projections on Suarez, they don't think he's even worth his $

[Terminator]

I would assume bad internal projections on Suarez, they don't think he's even worth his $

 

Yeah that makes sense. He's put up 7.5 WAR the past two years but Steamer projects him for 1.6 this coming year.

 

I suppose this past year he was propped up by uncharacteristically great defense which he's unlikely to repeat.

[Spanky__99]

I would assume bad internal projections on Suarez, they don't think he's even worth his $

 

That should be it.

 

I'd rather pay from the pile than give up anything for him. Hah!

[glory]

Suarez would have been a solid stop gap, but if they are saving bullets for a chance at a bigger target (Ohtani, Soto, whoever) then he's too flawed to tie up payroll room on this early in the winter.

[Spanky__99]

Suarez would have been a solid stop gap, but if they are saving bullets for a chance at a bigger target (Ohtani, Soto, whoever) then he's too flawed to tie up payroll room on this early in the winter.

 

Absolutely.

[Spanky__99]

Roden's getting big hype from where I look, nice.

[max silver]

Thanks a bunch for sharing the top 10 list Spanky. Has BA released updated farm system rankings yet?

[Spanky__99]

Thanks a bunch for sharing the top 10 list Spanky. Has BA released updated farm system rankings yet?

 

A lot of top 10 spects, yes... not near finished though. Just ask me and I'll post other teams if they're done...

 

They do the top 100 next and then the top 30's.

 

Systems last.

[max silver]

Roden's getting big hype from where I look, nice.

 

Yeah the dude has absolutely raked at every step along the way. All 6 of his AA home runs came in a 29 game sample as well so there's hope that there is a bit of juice in the bat. 3 out of 6 of his home runs came on the road as well so it's not as though he received a huge boost from the lefty hitter friendly home ballpark in New Hampshire.

Edited November 30, 2023 by max silver

[wamco]

Just another day of someone jerking off to Lantigua’s potential.

 

From down on the farm

 

When evaluating the hitters, I focused primarily on players who had above average sweet spot percentages, meaning they were hitting the ball at favorable launch angles, but had below average power. This is a demographic I am really interested in, because increasing exit velocity through bat speed training has been very successful, and as I found in my piece on who could improve the most with bat speed training, hitters who consistently hit the ball in the sweet spot zone for launch angle see exponential gains in their damage on contact once their exit velocity increases."

 

The #1 FA on their list:

 

"Admittedly, I didn’t know who Rafael Lantigua was before working on this exercise, but after digging into his batted ball data, I am intrigued. You don’t have to look at the more granular data to be impressed however; this past year he hit .305/.425/.469 with a 17.0% walk rate versus an 18.3% strikeout rate. The Statcast data makes the profile more interesting though. From an approach standpoint, he was in the 90th percentile of Chase Rate Over Expected (CROE), with a 7.3% rate. He didn’t whiff much, swinging through just 23.4% of the pitches he swung at, and wasn’t overly aggressive, swinging at only 42.7% of the pitches he faced. He is hitting the ball at favorable launch angles, with a sweet spot percentage of 38.3%, but he is lacking in raw power, with just a 100.3 MPH 90th percentile exit velocity. This is absolutely a player that, if he can add a few ticks of exit velocity through a bat speed training program, will take off."

[Ehjays]

[Frenchsoup]

Looking forward to some Cooke in 2024.

 

Yeah this guy looks really awesome. Him and /Tidemann should start at AAA next year and just work on fastball command, while developing there change and secondaries. Work on different arm angles, grips, cuffing. But overall just pound the strike zone and make the hitters hit u and never walk a guy. Unless its Barry Bonds.

[Frenchsoup]

I'd lock down Tiedemann and Cooke to Hella cheap contracts right now

[The Cats Ass]

 

Is Rafael Lantigua Rule-5 eligible? I know that he was set to be, but the Jays originally didn't renew his minor league contract. He was then a FA. Jays then brought him back on a minor-league contract with invitation to spring training. Does this release and then signing make him ineligible for the rule-5 draft?

[burlingtonbandit]

I'd lock down Tiedemann and Cooke to Hella cheap contracts right now

 

Waste of time signing any reliever this early.

[wamco]

I’d think mlb wouldn’t allow

That loophole would they?

 

Although this is a league that plays

With a ghost man on 2nd

So who the hell knows

[John_Havok]

Is Rafael Lantigua Rule-5 eligible? I know that he was set to be, but the Jays originally didn't renew his minor league contract. He was then a FA. Jays then brought him back on a minor-league contract with invitation to spring training. Does this release and then signing make him ineligible for the rule-5 draft?

 

No, if he falls within the guidelines of the normal rule 5 eligibility, he’s still eligible.

[Spanky__99]

BA's first Mock for '24...

 

1. Guardians — JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia

 

Arguably the best pure hitter in the 2024 class, Wetherholt led all Division I batters in 2023 with a .449 average. He also added significantly to both his speed and power numbers, going from 15 stolen bases to 35 and from five home runs to 16. Wetherholt is shorter of stature at 5-foot-10, but he is strong and filled out with heavy hands that create plenty of force in the box when paired with his innate barrel sense and above-average pure bat speed. He was one of just eight hitters in 2023 with at least 15 home runs and a strikeout rate less than 10%—of that group he was the only Power 5 conference player. Wetherholt was the most impressive hitter with Team USA this summer and he projects to be a fine defender at second base.

 

2. Reds — Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest

 

Kurtz currently ranks as the No. 1 player in the 2024 class thanks to his combination of bat-to-ball skills, offensive approach and raw power. He’s a career .345/.499/.708 hitter with Wake Forest who was the best hitter on a team that included 2023 first rounder Brock Wilken in 2023. Kurtz looks to yet again be a middle-of-the-order force for a loaded Demon Deacons offense in 2024. Among all hitters with 20 or more home runs in 2023, Kurtz’s .527 on-base percentage was second behind only Fairfield’s Charlie Pagliarini. He has a corner-only profile, but is an above-average defender at first base and might be athletic enough for some teams to think about trying him in a corner outfield spot.

 

3. Rockies — Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State

 

Bazzana has a lengthy track record of high-level hitting production, which includes a .340/.463/.549 career slash line with Oregon State, standout performance in the West Coast League before he started his college career as an 18-year-old, and also a .375/.456/.581 slash line with Falmouth in the Cape Cod League this summer. He ranked as the top prospect in the league and was also named MVP, which are distinctions he now shares alongside 2023 Cubs first rounder Matt Shaw. Bazzana has less power than Shaw, but he’s an all fields hitter with impressive contact skills and strike zone discipline. He’s also a standout athlete who could provide above-average defense at second base. There were just 10 Division I players in 2023 who homered at least 10 times and stole at least 30 bags, and of that group only Bazzana and Wetherholt played in Power 5 conferences.

 

4. A’s — Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida

 

Caglianone is simply a freak. He led all Division I hitters with 33 home runs during the 2023 season and possesses some of the best raw power you’ll see. His 113.3 mph 90th percentile exit velocity mark was good for third among all Division I hitters according to data we have at Baseball America. On top of that, the 6-foot-6 lefthander has a fastball that averaged 95 mph and has been up to 99. Caglianone does have flaws that will need to be addressed next spring. He chases out of the zone and swings and misses too frequently—among hitters with at least 20 home runs, his 5.3% walk rate was the worst—and his command is below-average on the mound, but for teams that want to shoot for high-end upside, this is your guy.

 

5. White Sox — Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern

 

A few weeks ago, we discussed whether or not Sirota was the most slept on name in the 2024 draft class. He’s the top mid-major prospect in the class and has an extremely well-rounded toolset and polished game, and is coming off a strong spring season with Northeastern as well as a solid eight-game look in the Cape Cod League. He was one of just three players to clear the following offensive thresholds during the 2023 season: an average of .340 or better; an on-base percentage of .450 or better; a slugging percentage of .650 or better; 15 or more home runs; 15 or more stolen bases; and a walk rate of 15% or better. Astros first rounder Brice Matthews (Nebraska) and Giants fifth rounder Quinn McDaniel (Maine) were the other two.

 

6. Royals — Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina

 

Honeycutt made an early case as the favorite for the top player in the 2024 draft class with a sensational freshman season in Chapel Hill. He homered 25 times, stole 29 bags and put on a defensive clinic in center field of Boshamer Stadium. He remains near the top of the class thanks to his standout toolset, but he has dealt with injuries and has yet to hit over .300 in a single season. Honeycutt did cut his strikeout rate from 29.7% to 20.4% in 2023, which was a significant question mark entering the year. Opinions will vary significantly on Honeycutt’s hit tool, so he’ll need to improve his swing, his approach and produce a high batting average to ease skeptics next spring.

 

7. Cardinals — Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest

 

The top-ranked pitcher in the 2024 class, Burns has powerful pure stuff including a fastball that averaged 96 mph and has been up to 102, as well as a hard, upper-80s slider that is a clear second plus offering. What separates Burns a bit from some of the other power-armed college pitchers currently in the first round is the fact that he’s thrown 152.1 innings with a 7.5% walk rate. That walk rate will provide some optimism that Burns can profile as a starter, even though he spent time during the 2023 season as a piggyback reliever with Chase Dollander.

 

8. Angels — Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest

 

King was one of the most consistently praised, up-arrow prospects in the college class throughout the summer and fall, thanks to his combination of athleticism, quick-twitch actions, speed, pure hitting ability and defensive versatility. He’s passed every offensive test with flying colors so far in his college career. He is a .399/.454/.676 career hitter with Division II Wingate (N.C.) and also hit well in the Cape Cod League and with Team USA. King will be tested in the ACC for the first time in 2024 after transferring to Wake Forest.

 

9. Pirates — Braden Montgomery, OF/RHP, Texas A&M

 

Montgomery has big raw power and arm strength that makes him a classic right field profile, and he took a sizable step forward with his approach from 2022 to 2023. His walk rate jumped around 10 points from 6.6% to 16.5% year-over-year and with that his on-base percentage climbed 100 points from .361 to .461. He’s a switch-hitter with above-average raw power from both sides of the plate and has homered 35 times in two seasons. After moving from Stanford to Texas A&M, Montgomery will look to continue his offensive development, and he might also be more of a factor on the mound, where he has a big fastball that’s been up to 98 mph.

 

10. Nationals — Tommy White, 3B, Louisiana State

 

White pairs huge raw power with solid bat-to-ball skills and an aggressive approach that makes him one of the most fearsome sluggers in college baseball. He likes to swing, and he likes to swing with intent to do damage, and that approach led to a .360/.425/.754 slash line with 27 home runs as a middle-of-the-order hitter in one of the best offenses in the country a year ago. While White’s offensive production stacks up with almost anyone in the country, scouts will nitpick his swing decisions and defensive ability at the hot corner next spring. There’s a real risk he moves to first base in pro ball, and if that’s the case more pressure will be placed on his standout offensive skill set.

 

11. Tigers — PJ Morlando, OF/1B, Summerville (S.C.) HS

 

Morlando was one of the most consistent offensive performers in the 2024 prep class throughout the summer and fall. He was the one reliable offensive presence on USA Baseball’s 18U National team, and his combination of advanced hitting ability, contact skill and accessible raw power makes him one of the safest overall profiles in the prep class. He is on the older side for the class and will be 19.2 on draft day, and there’s risk that he winds up as a first baseman only—though he is a skilled defender at the position—but there’s lots of conviction with him on the two most important tools: hitting and power.

 

12. Red Sox — Konnor Griffin, OF/SS/RHP, Jackson Prep, Flowood, Miss.

 

Griffin possesses some of the loudest pure upside in the 2024 class. He’s a tooled up athlete with an elite, 6-foot-4, 210-pound frame with tons of strength projection remaining and he is a double-plus runner who also has plus raw power and arm strength. He has shown an ability to play both shortstop and center field with solid actions at both positions, and his underclass track record of hitting and overall bat-to-ball skills are encouraging as well. On top of his upside as a hitter, Griffin has real potential on the mound and there are some scouts who prefer him as a pitching prospect although most of the industry leans towards his upside as a hitter.

 

13. Giants — Caleb Bonemer, SS, Okemos (Mich.) HS

 

Bonemer was the biggest riser in the class throughout the summer and fall. He’s a physical high school shortstop with a 6-foot, 195-pound frame and a strong power/speed combination. He projects to be an above-average runner in the future and has turned in double-plus run times. Bonemer consistently barreled the baseball and showed loud exit velocities all summer. He also has the tools to be a good defender on the left side of the infield, with solid hands, a strong arm and a nice ability to make plays on the run.

 

14. Cubs — Charlie Condon, OF, Georgia

 

Condon’s .800 slugging percentage was good for seventh among all Division I hitters and was the best mark among freshmen in the country in 2023. Baseball America’s 2023 freshman of the year, Condon is now a draft-eligible sophomore and provides huge raw power that stacks up with the top sluggers in the country. While Condon’s long levers create some swing-and-miss concerns, he did show solid plate skills with a 17.7% strikeout rate and 13% walk rate. His strikeout rate was the second-lowest among all players with 25 or more homers, behind only Maryland’s Nick Lorusso.

 

15. Mariners — Josh Hartle, LHP, Wake Forest

 

It’s likely Hartle or Grand Canyon righthander Daniel Avitia for the title of “best strike thrower in the college class.” And Hartle has the advantage of throwing from the left side. A highly-touted prep prospect, Hartle works with an easy and fluid delivery and fills up the zone with ease, with a 6.4% career walk rate after two seasons. Hartle’s strikeout rate jumping from 16.6% in 2022 to 33.4% in 2023 was an encouraging development. While his low-90s fastball and low-90s slider might not invoke the same fear that other pitchers’ arsenals can, he does provide the safest big league starter profile in the class. Among pitchers with a sub-10% walk rate, Hartle was fourth in the country with 140 strikeouts in 2023—behind Paul Skenes (209), Quinn Mathews (158) and teammate Rhett Lowder (143).

 

16. Marlins — Jacob Cozart, C, North Carolina State

 

Cozart was inexplicably left off the final roster with Team USA this summer after showing hitting ability, power and defensive prowess behind the plate. He’s the top-ranked catcher in a solid class for the position, and while he is a bit bigger than a typical catcher, he moves well behind the plate. Cozart has a plus arm and can throw from awkward angles with quickness and accuracy and he also pairs solid contact skills and power from the left side of the plate. It’s a well-rounded profile at a coveted demographic.

 

17. Brewers — Cade Arrambide, C, Tomball (Texas) HS

 

Arrambide has loud tools and loud performance from the 2023 showcase circuit. He was perhaps the most impressive prospect at the Area Code Games when he showed off plus raw power in batting practice and homered to both his pull side and the opposite field. He also boasts a 70-grade throwing arm and high-level defensive actions behind the plate. Teams will have to overcome their fear of the high school catching demographic to select him with a first-round pick, but his tools and upside are enough to warrant the risk.

 

18. Rays — Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa

 

It would be difficult to find a pitcher with a more lethal two-pitch combination than Brecht’s power fastball and slider. The 6-foot-4 righthander averaged 97.7 mph last spring, which was one of the five hardest fastballs in the country (alongside Eriq Swan, Paul Skenes, George Klassen and Sam Knowlton) and he also threw one of the 10 hardest sliders. Both pitches have 70-grade potential, but he will need to dramatically improve his strike throwing to realize his upside. Brecht has walked 19.4% of batters in two seasons with Iowa, though part of his college career was spent splitting time between baseball and football—something that is no longer the case.

 

19. Mets* — Cam Caminiti, LHP/OF, Saguaro HS, Scottsdale, Ariz.

 

Originally a member of the 2025 class, Caminiti reclassified and is now one of the younger preps in the 2024 class and will still be 17 years old on draft day. He’s also one of the most exciting lefthanded pitchers. Caminiti has a loose and easy delivery with a great pitcher’s frame and overpowers hitters with a fastball that’s regularly in the mid 90s. He has three promising secondaries that need further refinement, and has raw power as a hitter, though his pro future lies on the mound.

 

20. Blue Jays — Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke

 

Santucci pitched just 29.1 innings during the 2023 season before injury ended his year, but he should be ready for a full 2024 season and has flashed a solid three-pitch mix from an easy, starter-esque delivery. He sits in the 92-94 mph range and has touched 96. Both his slider and changeup look like potential above-average offerings. With just 70.1 total innings under his belt, Santucci simply needs to turn in a complete season in a starting role.

 

21. Twins — Griff O’Ferrall, SS, Virginia

 

The starting shortstop for two seasons for Virginia, O’Ferrall also claimed that role for Team USA last summer and provides a steady, reliable and well-rounded game despite no loud or carrying individual tools. O’Ferrall is a career .355/.430/.435 hitter with the Cavaliers, and he’s added 33 stolen bases, a 10.9% strikeout rate and an 11.4% walk rate. He grinds out at-bats, swings at the right pitches and has solid contact skills, though his arm strength might be a bit light for a shortstop in pro ball.

 

22. Orioles — Noah Franco, OF/LHP, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla.

 

Franco has a low-90s fastball and decent feel for a solid slider on the mound, but his powerful lefthanded swing likely has more scouts eyeing him as a hitter at the next level. Franco takes big hacks and looks to do damage with a swing that can get overly long, but he drives the ball to all fields with authority and is also a deft defender at first base, with a chance for a corner outfield position as well.

 

23. Dodgers — Caleb Lomavita, C, California

 

A well-rounded catcher, Lomavita has proved his offensive ability with California and in the Cape Cod League this summer. He went from seven home runs to 16 year-over-year in the conference formerly known as the Pac-12, and he also slashed .329/.374/.494 with three home runs in 22 games with Cotuit in the Cape. He has above-average arm strength behind the plate and the tools to be a solid defender, but he’s also an above-average runner who will steal bases and could potentially move to the outfield if necessary.

 

24. Braves — Carter Johnson, SS, Oxford (Ala.) HS

 

Johnson is one of the more impressive pure hitters in the prep class, with a loose and easy lefthanded swing and an impressive ability to maneuver his barrel to all regions of the strike zone. While he doesn’t have the loudest toolset, he is a fine defender and should stick in the infield with a similar profile to sweet-swinging hitters like Colt Emerson or Kevin McGonigle from the 2023 class.

 

25. Padres * — Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas

 

Smith has a Tommy John surgery on his resume from high school, but he also has big-time stuff from the left side and took a step forward with his strikeouts during the 2023 season. Smith posted a 3.64 ERA—nearly a run better than his 2022 season—in 11 starts and 71.2 innings, and he improved his strikeout rate from 25.8% to 35.2% while using a mid-90s fastball that has been up to 98 and snapping off a plus slider in the mid 80s.

 

26. Yankees* — Bryce Rainer, SS/RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS, Los Angeles

 

Rainer has pro upside as a lefthanded-hitting shortstop with above-average power potential and big arm strength as well as solid defensive actions that should keep him on the left side of the infield. But he also has exciting upside as a loose-armed righthanded pitcher who can touch 96 and break off a lethal curveball with shocking ease and balance for a player who has primarily focused on hitting throughout his prep career.

 

27. Phillies — Thatcher Hurd, RHP, Louisiana State

 

Hurd had massive collegiate expectations after being one of the most highly-ranked players to make it to campus from the 2021 draft class. He lived up to the hype with UCLA in 2022, when he posted a 1.06 ERA over 34 innings. He took a bit of a step backward in 2023 after transferring to Louisiana State where he struggled with command for most of the first half of the season. Hurd finished strong and still has loud pure stuff with a mid-90s heater and great feel to spin a pair of breaking balls, so with a bounceback season could easily find himself in the first round.

 

28. Astros — Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State

 

Smith has a powerful, 6-foot-3, 221-pound frame and big raw power and arm strength to go with it. Below-average contact ability hindered him during his 2023 freshman season with Florida State, where he hit .258/.326/.517 with 12 home runs. Smith showed an improved approach with much better contact skills with Hyannis in the Cape Cod League. He slashed .347/.406/.575 and hit six home runs and 12 doubles in 44 games and ranked as the No. 2 prospect in the league. If he can replicate those improvements next spring against ACC pitching he could solidify himself in the first round or move even further up the board.

 

29. D-backs — Drew Beam, RHP, Tennessee

 

Beam has a deep pitch mix, a great pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-4, 208 pounds and has established a rock solid track record in a starting role in two seasons with Tennessee. He has posted a 3.20 ERA in 32 starts and 160.1 innings, with a 22.6% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate. Beam sits in the mid 90s and flashes an above-average curveball and changeup.

 

30. Rangers — Matt Ager, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

 

The best pitcher in the class on the West Coast, Ager moved from the bullpen to the rotation last spring to great effect. He posted a 3.12 ERA over 15 starts and 92.1 innings, and among qualified pitchers his 3.50 FIP was the fifth-best in the country thanks to an extremely solid 30.3% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate. He has appealing starter traits and pitches off a low-90s fastball and low-80s slider.

 

*The Mets, Yankees and Padres each exceeded the second threshold of the luxury tax that triggers a 10-spot penalty for their first overall picks. If any of the teams had secured a lottery pick, their second overall pick would have been dropped 10 spots. With none of the three doing so, each of their picks in the first round falls ten spots.

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/toronto-blue-jays-top-31-prospects/

 

 

 

Fangraphs top 31 Blue Jays prospects

[Laika]

Fangraphs kind of likes the system, judging from the grades and the blurb at the bottom.

 

System Overview

 

In last season’s System Overview, we noted the way this system skewed toward high-variance guys, and that largely remains true. The Jays have taken seven-figure shots on multiple high schoolers in each of the last several drafts, and Tiedemann was a junior college pick. All but a few of the prospects with “grades of impact” in the 40+ FV tier and above are volatile, high-variance players.

 

This system is stocked with meaningful redundancy, with plan As and plan Bs. There are pockets of players who are comparable in many ways layered throughout the org, perhaps as a way of mitigating the risk associated with those high-variance guys. You can see the trends in low-release height guys (Tiedemann, Barriera, Macko, Cooke and Juenger) and pervasive slider-first approaches to pitching (most effectively Brock and Cooke) in this system. Meanwhile, the bones of the position player group include bat-to-ball specialists with little power (Jimenez and Kasevich, among others) and power hitters with iffy defensive homes (Orelvis, Doughty, De Jesus, and Palmegiani).

 

Including the many players who recently graduated from rookie status (the likes of Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes, and Otto Lopez), the Blue Jays should be able to stock their bench and reserve role group from within for the foreseeable future. Free agent departures, especially Matt Chapman’s, open up playing time at second and third base. We think Santiago Espinal, Jimenez, Barger and Martinez are more talented than both the OBP-driven Schenider/Cavan Biggio combo currently projected in the RosterResource starting lineup, and the contact/speed duo of Lopez and Ernie Clement. Schneider has already done enough in the big leagues to call him an unfortunate omission from last year’s list, but it looked like the book on him was out late in the season. There are so many possible permutations of this 2B/3B combo on the 40-man that the Jays should be able to backfill a lot of Chapman’s production from within.

 

^ that sounds like a blurb for a farm that would rank middle of the pack.

 

Nice to get some industry confirmation of what a (very) few of us noticed during 2023 - that the system is trending up and is deceptively good, or at least deep.