Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Olerud363]

Just keep lefty hitter stats from New Hampshire in the "nice to see but ..." category. Super short porch in RF inflates a lot

 

Do you know what the park factor is for lefties in New Hampshire? You can't just discount every single left handed hitter no matter what.

 

Roden has only played 16 games in New Hampshire hitting .300 with 3 homers. He's played 20 games on the road in the Eastern league hitting .360 with 3 homers. He hit better on the road than in Vancouver in the North West league. This year he is hitting about .325 .440 .480 between the two leagues. He's stolen 20+ bases. He's walked more than he has struck out. He's played about 50 games in right and 50 games in left but none in center.

 

Nothing about his numbers is a product of his 16 games in New Hampshire.

 

He has the best minor league on base percentage of any Blue Jays prospect ever. You don't believe me? Than tell me who has the best minor league on base percentage of any Blue Jays prospect ever? Fred McGriff, Carlos Delgado, Vladimir Guerrero Jr?

[BlueBaller]

Palmegiani 2 for 3 (2 doubles) 3 rbi.

 

Good start to AAA.

[max silver]

Really makes you wonder what else he has to do.

 

Mastering AAA would be a good start. Given the extreme offensive environment of AAA this year Orelvis has all of a 111 WRC+ at the moment. I don't want him called up before he has a legitimate chance to succeed in MLB.

[John_Havok]

Do you know what the park factor is for lefties in New Hampshire? You can't just discount every single left handed hitter no matter what.

 

Roden has only played 16 games in New Hampshire hitting .300 with 3 homers. He's played 20 games on the road in the Eastern league hitting .360 with 3 homers. He hit better on the road than in Vancouver in the North West league. This year he is hitting about .325 .440 .480 between the two leagues. He's stolen 20+ bases. He's walked more than he has struck out. He's played about 50 games in right and 50 games in left but none in center.

 

Nothing about his numbers is a product of his 16 games in New Hampshire.

 

He has the best minor league on base percentage of any Blue Jays prospect ever. You don't believe me? Than tell me who has the best minor league on base percentage of any Blue Jays prospect ever? Fred McGriff, Carlos Delgado, Vladimir Guerrero Jr?

 

He could be in line to be Olerud-ish. I'm just saying he shouldn't be expected to be the next David Ortiz

 

I also never said to discount EVERYTHING, because of the park, just the HRs.

[Jonn]

Mastering AAA would be a good start. Given the extreme offensive environment of AAA this year Orelvis has all of a 111 WRC+ at the moment. I don't want him called up before he has a legitimate chance to succeed in MLB.

 

I mean if you would rather continue watching Espinal and Biggio get at-bats by all means.

[max silver]

I mean if you would rather continue watching Espinal and Biggio get at-bats by all means.

 

I simply don't think it would be good for Orelvis or the team to start his service clock early if he's not ready to succeed against major league pitching. The guy has nearly a 27% strikeout rate in AAA with a very small strike zone in play for half of the games.

[BlueBaller]

Can't we leave Orelvis alone to bake in the oven a lil while?

[John_Havok]

I mean if you would rather continue watching Espinal and Biggio get at-bats by all means.

 

I get the idea, but just like moving him up to AAA from AA, it would be nice to see that K rate com down a bit. 164 PAs at AAA too so there’s likely still some boxes to check off

[THANOS]

I get the idea, but just like moving him up to AAA from AA, it would be nice to see that K rate com down a bit. 164 PAs at AAA too so there’s likely still some boxes to check off

 

I agree that K rate needs to be no higher than low 20s for me to be comfortable bumping him up.

[Orgfiller]

I agree that K rate needs to be no higher than low 20s for me to be comfortable bumping him up.

 

Honestly I'm not even blinking at a sub 27% K rate in his first taste of AAA at 21. Especially when the power has stayed intact (his ISO is actually higher at AAA lol) and the walk rate is good. Would I call him up right now? No, there's no need and there's definitely stuff to work on. But it's not like I would be majorly concerned with contact issues at the MLB level right now aside from any other rookie of ours, moreso making sure that he continues having a good approach so when he's ready sometime next season he can hit the ground running.

[THANOS]

Honestly I'm not even blinking at a sub 27% K rate in his first taste of AAA at 21. Especially when the power has stayed intact (his ISO is actually higher at AAA lol) and the walk rate is good. Would I call him up right now? No, there's no need and there's definitely stuff to work on. But it's not like I would be majorly concerned with contact issues at the MLB level right now aside from any other rookie of ours, moreso making sure that he continues having a good approach so when he's ready sometime next season he can hit the ground running.

 

Yes, he's very young in AAA, which is another reason to not rush anything.

 

Leave him there to begin 2024 and see if the splits improve while maintaining/increasing the ISO.

 

You need to account for regression in a promotion to the big leagues, because it's the largest jump.

 

Without fact checking this, I would assume K rate jumps by somewhere between 5-15% from AAA to MLB. With Orelvis' holes, a 27% likely means 40% in the bigs which is like what Belt was sporting earlier this season. It's not really ideal.

[metafour]

Adam Macko cooked again tonight:

 

5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K

 

Really encouraging emergence late in the season.

[BlueBaller]

Nice to see macko rebounding and fixing up those numbers.

 

Palmegiani first AAA dinger tonight.

[John_Havok]

Adam Macko cooked again tonight:

 

5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K

 

Really encouraging emergence late in the season.

 

That makes 4 of his last 7 starts with 0 ER allowed, 2 of them with 1 ER allowed and 1 blowup where he let in 7

[Laika]

The farm system / talent acquisition and development system is suddenly firing on all cylinders and overflowing with helpful MLB players.

 

These five guys are under 28, under control forever (Cabrera just 2 more years) and making a huge combined impact.

 

Schneider, 24 years old, 78 PA, 1.7 fWAR (rookie)

Clement, 27 years old, 38 PA, 0.5 fWAR (1 year of service time)

Horwitz, 25 years old, 23 PA, 0.2 fWAR (rookie)

Francis, 27 years old, 32 IP, 0.2 fWAR (rookie)

Cabrera, 26 years old, 18.1 IP, 0.5 fWAR (2024 = arb2)

[Brownie19]

Is $35 for a certified Orelvis signed baseball a good deal for a Jays fans / ball signature collector?

[Brownie19]

Jackson Holiday has been moved up to AAA and both Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford were moved up to AA (after having almost identical results in A ball - 192 wRC+ and 5 hrs each)

[Spanky99]

Jackson Holiday has been moved up to AAA and both Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford were moved up to AA (after having almost identical results in A ball - 192 wRC+ and 5 hrs each)

 

And Crews and Langford play against Solometo for free on MILB tonight at 6.

[Terminator]

The farm system / talent acquisition and development system is suddenly firing on all cylinders and overflowing with helpful MLB players.

 

These five guys are under 28, under control forever (Cabrera just 2 more years) and making a huge combined impact.

 

Schneider, 24 years old, 78 PA, 1.7 fWAR (rookie)

Clement, 27 years old, 38 PA, 0.5 fWAR (1 year of service time)

Horwitz, 25 years old, 23 PA, 0.2 fWAR (rookie)

Francis, 27 years old, 32 IP, 0.2 fWAR (rookie)

Cabrera, 26 years old, 18.1 IP, 0.5 fWAR (2024 = arb2)

 

The prospect outlets were giving us almost zero credit for those guys in the system rankings. Which is understandable, none of them really deserved to be highly ranked. But our team ranking would surely have gotten a huge boost if Schneider was being credited as a 3 WAR player, Clement being a good backup, etc.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Are guys like Schneider, Clement and Horwitz for real, or are they just riding a hot hand and will plummet back to reality once MLB pitchers figure out and exploit their weaknesses?

 

Look at Espinal for example.

[max silver]

Are guys like Schneider, Clement and Horwitz for real, or are they just riding a hot hand and will plummet back to reality once MLB pitchers figure out and exploit their weaknesses?

 

Look at Espinal for example.

 

I think Schneider is likely a legitimate above average bat. His primary weakness is already well known and he faces a majority of pitches up in the zone but he's continued to have a lot of success despite this. His pitch selection is already so good that he's ahead of the game compared to guys who chase out of the zone a ton.

[Spanky99]

Are guys like Schneider, Clement and Horwitz for real, or are they just riding a hot hand and will plummet back to reality once MLB pitchers figure out and exploit their weaknesses?

 

Look at Espinal for example.

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Laika]

The prospect outlets were giving us almost zero credit for those guys in the system rankings. Which is understandable, none of them really deserved to be highly ranked. But our team ranking would surely have gotten a huge boost if Schneider was being credited as a 3 WAR player, Clement being a good backup, etc.

 

Yeah if you look at projections right now...

 

Schneider is about 0.2 WAR per 55 PA, call it a 2 WAR player. That's a 50 FV. Backend top 100 prospect, basically.

[Laika]

Are guys like Schneider, Clement and Horwitz for real, or are they just riding a hot hand and will plummet back to reality once MLB pitchers figure out and exploit their weaknesses?

 

Look at Espinal for example.

 

They all have warts and could suck immediately. But Clement has a long track record of making contact and Horwitz and Schneider both have extensive MiLB records of overall production.

 

Schneider's swing definitely has holes in it so him finding a consistent level of production will take some adjustments.

Horwitz still probably does not have enough raw power to be more than a bench player. Offensively, he is the more traditional prospect so he may have the best chance of being a long term MLB quality bat of some competency out of the three.

Clement has only hit for any power this year... in 300 AAA PA. Remains to be seen if his swing changes this year are permanent.

[Terminator]

Are guys like Schneider, Clement and Horwitz for real, or are they just riding a hot hand and will plummet back to reality once MLB pitchers figure out and exploit their weaknesses?

 

Look at Espinal for example.

 

Schneider is legit.

 

He does have some warts but he makes it work because of the things that he does well. For example, his whiff rate is UGLY but his chase rate is ELITE. He has mediocre exit velos and an extremely high launch angle. That only works if you pull dat ball and he pulls it with the best of them.

 

He obviously won't be this good moving forward. But the projections are catching on and both Zips and Steamer have him hitting wRC+ of 110 or better moving forward. Early returns on his defense seem positive as well. Seems like he can be a 2-3 WAR player moving forward? And who knows, maybe even a little bit better?

[Terminator]

Clement seems pretty solid. Light hitting guy who can field. He may not be a great SS, but if he can do it even somewhat below average to go along with 90 wRC+ he's a useful UT infielder for a playoff team. To be a 2 WAR guy he either needs the defense to be better than I think or he needs to hit for more power, both of which are possible.

 

Horwitz has barely played so he's even harder to get a read on. He'll need his recent AAA power spike to hold moving forward to be anything more than a bench player. But if the power is there, he could be a strong side platoon player who Ross trades for a setup man in a couple of years.

[Spanky99]

So the MILB Thread is a joke now, or dramatics?

[BlueBaller]

Van Eyk sighting in AA

[WryNGinger]

Adam Macko another solid game in Van yesterday. Since mid July he has looked mostly really good. I mentioned a while back he was on the radio saying that he had stated to figure some things out with regards to staying even keel.

[Spanky99]

Adam Macko cooked again tonight:

 

5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K

 

Really encouraging emergence late in the season.

 

Adam Macko another solid game in Van yesterday. Since mid July he has looked mostly really good. I mentioned a while back he was on the radio saying that he had stated to figure some things out with regards to staying even keel.

 

Yeah, mon. Imma burn one...