Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Brownie19]

This happened with Russ Adams and Aaron Hill. Adams came first, was a terrible short stop, but Hill was moved to second to accommodate him. By the time they decided to move Adams, it was to late to move Hill, and they went with John McDonald at short.

 

Despite his reputation McDonald was below replacement for the most part https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=395&position=SS

 

Maybe in this day and age with shifts and creative defensive alignments (Russel Martin playing everywhere), they don't have to be married to certain guys at certain positions. Perhaps it doesn't even matter as much which guys you define at what position, you can simply put your best defender at the most important place in the shift. Maybe all these infielders coming up, are just infielders. If Smith is the best infielder, he just plays as deep as he can, at the spot where the data says he's needed most (ie short stop, short right field, up the middle, where-ever)

 

Johnny Mac posted 1.0 WAR in 2007 when his wRC+ was 59. That's pretty f***ing impressive.

[metafour]

This happened with Russ Adams and Aaron Hill. Adams came first, was a terrible short stop, but Hill was moved to second to accommodate him. By the time they decided to move Adams, it was to late to move Hill, and they went with John McDonald at short.

 

Despite his reputation McDonald was below replacement for the most part https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=395&position=SS

 

Maybe in this day and age with shifts and creative defensive alignments (Russel Martin playing everywhere), they don't have to be married to certain guys at certain positions. Perhaps it doesn't even matter as much which guys you define at what position, you can simply put your best defender at the most important place in the shift. Maybe all these infielders coming up, are just infielders. If Smith is the best infielder, he just plays as deep as he can, at the spot where the data says he's needed most (ie short stop, short right field, up the middle, where-ever)

 

Ahhh yes, peak-era JPR drafting: pass on Tulowitzki because we already had Adams and Hill, neither of which was a SS anyway LOL.

[Olerud363]

Johnny Mac posted 1.0 WAR in 2007 when his wRC+ was 59. That's pretty f***ing impressive.

 

Yeah, but for 2006-2008 he was slightly negative overall.

[Spanky__99]

KLAW Chat... Jays content...

 

Brett : Could Kevin Smith develop enough to push Bichette to another position? What is his ceiling?

 

Keith Law: No, he’s not a long-term SS at all.

 

Mike: How much draft day risk is there for a strategy like Toronto’s, where they pass on Liberatore, to take Groshans and then Koffenstein. What if someone took Kloshenstein instead?

 

Keith Law: Given what they paid Kloffenstein (third time’s the charm), he wasn’t likely to be selected. I think the advisor put word out he wasn’t signing for anything less than that, so teams passed.

 

Jo-Nathan: Has Bo Bichette improved enough defensively to stick at SS long term?

 

Keith Law: Nope.

 

Jesse B: Kevin Smith came out of nowhere. Is he legit? Possibly the BlueJays SS of the future?

 

Keith Law: Not a SS. And he was a college guy in low-A until June – you can throw out what he did for Lansing.

 

On Soto...

 

Tom: Steamer has Juan Soto as the 13th best hitter in the majors RoS by wOBA, sandwiched between Judge and Donaldson. Is that extremely optimistic or do you think Soto is already capable of that? Does he even keeping playing everyday with Eaton? I, personally, don’t see how he couldn’t.

 

Keith Law: Projection systems can only use the data that are available, and Soto has under 400 pro PA above rookie ball, total. I doubt any system would be reliable working off such a tiny sample of data on a player.

[Brownie19]

I mean - f*** Keith Law, but I thought everyone's said Kevin Smith is a stud defensively. When he says Kevin Smith isn't a long-term SS "at all" is that because he doesn't think he'll hit enough to be a regular?

[Laika]

He clearly means he’s not a SS positionally.

 

That’s very divergent from everything else, which basically says Smith is a fringe PLUS shortstop and should stick easily

[Laika]

Keith Law’s opinions on any one prospect should be ignored because his job is literally impossible.

 

He is supposed to assess and evaluate every prospect for every team PLUS new draftees and amateurs.

Teams employ dozens of people to do that properly.

 

What he actually does is apply his a priori assumptions to the profiles that he gleans from other sources, working in his own very limited viewings when possible. It’s worthless.

[Jimcanuck]

how many times has KLaw been wrong. Conclusion - Kevin Smith is a stud SS

[Angrioter]

how many times has KLaw been wrong. Conclusion - Kevin Smith is a stud SS

 

KLaw

Rowdy Tellez suck - Check

Marcus Stroman suck - Check

Aaron Sanchez suck - Check

[Orgfiller]

KLaw

Rowdy Tellez suck - Check

Marcus Stroman suck - Check

Aaron Sanchez suck - Check

 

Marcus Stroman most certainly does not suck.

[Krylian]

Not even sure why everyone gets so bent out of shape over Keith Law. Who cares. The only thing that matters is how Kevin Smith and our other prospects actually perform. KLaw had no impact on that.

[Spanky__99]

Not even sure why everyone gets so bent out of shape over Keith Law. Who cares. The only thing that matters is how Kevin Smith and our other prospects actually perform. KLaw had no impact on that.

 

No doubt, but it's fun reading his and others views.

[King]

KLaw

Rowdy Tellez suck - Check

Marcus Stroman suck - Check

Aaron Sanchez suck - Check

 

He has wins and losses but that happens when you take the hard line stance and refuse to change your opinion. He was most definitely wrong about Luis Severino

[glory]

Law never hedges. So if he dislikes a prospect, that prospect sucks and has no chance of being anything. Of course, being the self righteous douche that he is, he can't acknowledge that players can make adjustments, get stronger, etc, etc, etc. So his 'losses' look really bad, as they should.

 

I'd rather appreciate Law's douchiness from afar, meaning I don't want to read his stuff. I honestly don't know why people value his opinion on prospects at all.

[baubau]

SRF with 7.1IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 7K.

 

While I find this difficult, it certainly isn't impossible to fap to.

[glory]

SRF with 7.1IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 7K.

 

While I find this difficult, it certainly isn't impossible to fap to.

 

SRF, Borucki, and Pannone (when he gets back). Finally starting to see some pitching prospects in AAA. I don't miss the Mat Latos, Roberto Hernandez, etc, AAA rotations.

[Laika]

SRF, Borucki, and Pannone (when he gets back). Finally starting to see some pitching prospects in AAA. I don't miss the Mat Latos, Roberto Hernandez, etc, AAA rotations.

 

It also helps a lot that one of this year’s scrubs, Sammy G, is doing decent stuff. Refreshing

 

SRF’s rations this year are pretty sick; he’s getting exciting

[SpeedyGose]

SRF with 7.1IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 7K.

 

While I find this difficult, it certainly isn't impossible to fap to.

 

Tweets I'm seeing out there say he was still hitting 96 in the 7th. EZ fap material

[Angrioter]

Pimp Foley is good

[Krylian]

Can we please have Gruber on the podcast, his meltdowns would be so fun to listen to.

 

The real Gruber I assume?

[BlueRocky]

Ryan Noda’s on fire, another HR today, 8th in his last 14 games.

 

[Spanky__99]

Dylan Cease, not ranked. lol

 

I was just looking for their ranking on THE BOARD new prospect listings, they have him ranked 287th...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018prospect&type=1&pos=all&team=all&page=3_100

 

Our P2F's aggregate ranking has him 92nd, this all before any updates, that's absurd.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AYHdbnvRKdiWSf40UwfPj37Stm7mZKCorcZCZZzNhSY/edit#gid=2092974424

 

My God... reading FG comments gave my eyes cancer.

Edited June 18, 2018 by Spanky99

[Olerud363]

Rowdy Tellez and Jake Bauers have the exact same season stats. Their career stats are close too. However their career projections are far apart...

 

Tellez - Fat guy, Crazy girlfriend.

 

Peak Projection - September callup in the next couple of years, hits 2 homeruns. Hit's 25 more homeruns in the minors as a 28 year old. No more callups though, too fat.

 

Likely Projection - Hits 11 homeruns in Buffalo. Rotates among i90 IL teams. Someday hits 11 more for Syracuse.

 

Floor - Cut from Buffalo soon for not running out pop-ups. Stealth ban from organized baseball and never seen again.

 

Bauer -

 

Peak Projection - Line drive hitter, great defense, sneaks into lower half of top 10 in average, could develop 20 homer power. Think peak Lyle Overbay.

 

Likely projection - Mitch Moreland.

 

Floor - Mitch Moreland

 

Of course these are not official projections, just what I hear on TV and the message boards. Why so different for such similar players??

[Krylian]

Rowdy Tellez and Jake Bauers have the exact same season stats. Their career stats are close too. However their career projections are far apart...

 

Tellez - Fat guy, Crazy girlfriend.

 

Peak Projection - September callup in the next couple of years, hits 2 homeruns. Hit's 25 more homeruns in the minors as a 28 year old. No more callups though, too fat.

 

Likely Projection - Hits 11 homeruns in Buffalo. Rotates among i90 IL teams. Someday hits 11 more for Syracuse.

 

Floor - Cut from Buffalo soon for not running out pop-ups. Stealth ban from organized baseball and never seen again.

 

Bauer -

 

Peak Projection - Line drive hitter, great defense, sneaks into lower half of top 10 in average, could develop 20 homer power. Think peak Lyle Overbay.

 

Likely projection - Mitch Moreland.

 

Floor - Mitch Moreland

 

Of course these are not official projections, just what I hear on TV and the message boards. Why so different for such similar players??

 

Cause Tellez is fat I guess.

[Spanky__99]

Rowdy Tellez and Jake Bauers have the exact same season stats. Their career stats are close too. However their career projections are far apart...

 

Tellez - Fat guy, Crazy girlfriend.

 

Peak Projection - September callup in the next couple of years, hits 2 homeruns. Hit's 25 more homeruns in the minors as a 28 year old. No more callups though, too fat.

 

Likely Projection - Hits 11 homeruns in Buffalo. Rotates among i90 IL teams. Someday hits 11 more for Syracuse.

 

Floor - Cut from Buffalo soon for not running out pop-ups. Stealth ban from organized baseball and never seen again.

 

Bauer -

 

Peak Projection - Line drive hitter, great defense, sneaks into lower half of top 10 in average, could develop 20 homer power. Think peak Lyle Overbay.

 

Likely projection - Mitch Moreland.

 

Floor - Mitch Moreland

 

Of course these are not official projections, just what I hear on TV and the message boards. Why so different for such similar players??

 

Cause Tellez is fat I guess.

 

LMFBO... too funny. Seriously though it's definitely body type and position, some say Tellez is a DH, Bauers is above average defensively can even play the OF, I've even read CF, but I doubt that.

[Brownie19]

LMFBO... too funny. Seriously though it's definitely body type and position, some say Tellez is a DH, Bauers is above average defensively can even play the OF, I've even read CF, but I doubt that.

 

He plays CF Cody Bellinger...

[Spanky__99]

He plays CF Cody Bellinger...

 

Huh? Is this a comp?

[burlingtonbandit]

Rowdy Tellez and Jake Bauers have the exact same season stats. Their career stats are close too. However their career projections are far apart...

 

Tellez - Fat guy, Crazy girlfriend.

 

Peak Projection - September callup in the next couple of years, hits 2 homeruns. Hit's 25 more homeruns in the minors as a 28 year old. No more callups though, too fat.

 

Likely Projection - Hits 11 homeruns in Buffalo. Rotates among i90 IL teams. Someday hits 11 more for Syracuse.

 

Floor - Cut from Buffalo soon for not running out pop-ups. Stealth ban from organized baseball and never seen again.

 

Bauer -

 

Peak Projection - Line drive hitter, great defense, sneaks into lower half of top 10 in average, could develop 20 homer power. Think peak Lyle Overbay.

 

Likely projection - Mitch Moreland.

 

Floor - Mitch Moreland

 

Of course these are not official projections, just what I hear on TV and the message boards. Why so different for such similar players??

 

Bauers has better bat speed and swing so projects to be better against MLB pitching.

[Brownie19]

Huh? Is this a comp?

 

No - it's a joke as a couple of years ago people were saying Cody Bellinger is athletic enough to play CF, but because he was SOOOO good defensively at 1st base that they were going to leave him there.

[Spanky__99]

No - it's a joke as a couple of years ago people were saying Cody Bellinger is athletic enough to play CF, but because he was SOOOO good defensively at 1st base that they were going to leave him there.

 

Well there's some truth to it as he's played quite a bit in the OF including CF. Meh... defensive metrics have always irked me.