Marcus Stroman Recovery Thread

[JuniorFelix]

I think you guys are reading to much into his start at A baseball. Let's see how he does against better bats and than decide if he is ready.

 

I think you are forgetting we are talking about MARCUS STROMAN here!

[KingKat]

This decision doesn't have to be made yet, we can basically see two starts each from Hutch and Estrada before it needs to be made.

 

Very true. Sometimes these decisions just kind of make themselves.

[SAAviour]

Craziest part of this is the sudden extreme pitching depth we have. Wtf!

Too many solid pitchers for a playoff rotation.

 

And lastly, please everyone stop getting ahead of ourselves. This is the blue jays, with a 1.5 game lead. The playoffs can be blown. Or we could be wild card and be one and done with Price on the mound and the rest of the rotation won't mean s***.

[L54]

I can't believe some of you want to play nice and not hurt anyone's feelings by bumping them from the rotation. Holy f*** the Jays have the chance to add a top 25 pitcher to their rotation and some of you are worried about hurting Marco Estrada's feelings? Get outta here.

[L54]

Craziest part of this is the sudden extreme pitching depth we have. Wtf!

Too many solid pitchers for a playoff rotation.

 

And lastly, please everyone stop getting ahead of ourselves. This is the blue jays, with a 1.5 game lead. The playoffs can be blown. Or we could be wild card and be one and done with Price on the mound and the rest of the rotation won't mean s***.

 

Oh okay. All playoff talk will be censored from this point on. Should be easy enough to do around here.

 

We only see what they want us to see!

[Dr. Dinger]

Craziest part of this is the sudden extreme pitching depth we have. Wtf!

Too many solid pitchers for a playoff rotation.

 

One of Hutch or Estrada would get bumped from the playoff rotation even without Stroman. Probably both will now, unless Buehrle is more hurt than he's letting on.

[KingKat]

One of Hutch or Estrada would get bumped from the playoff rotation even without Stroman. Probably both will now, unless Buehrle is more hurt than he's letting on.

 

Kind of interesting that because of roster expansion, Buehrle's DL streak would be spared if he were indeed injured.

[Dr. Dinger]

Kind of interesting that because of roster expansion, Buehrle's DL streak would be spared if he were indeed injured.

 

He's also in jeopardy of having his 200 IP streak snapped, which would be unfortunate. That's the most impressive endurance streak since Cal Ripken.

[RealAccountant]

Hard to take Estrada out when he's pitched this well for an a good portion of the season. With Buehrle sore and needing extra rest often I wonder if they can piggy back him with hutch, or do something like home/away split with those 2

 

Need to beat cy Young

[aselvana]

*assuming we win the division

*assuming stroman is back to normal

 

THURS., OCT. 8 ALDS A, Game 1 DICKEY

 

FRI., OCT. 9 ALDS A, Game 2 PRICE

 

SUN., OCT. 11 ALDS A, Game 3 STRO

 

MON., OCT. 12 *ALDS A, Game 4 DICK

 

WED., OCT. 14 *ALDS A, Game 5 PRICE

 

 

I think its very possible to have 3-man rotation for playoffs, just by looking at schedule. Price Dickey Stroman; and spot start the rest if need be.

 

but honestly, if we go with a 4-man, i think burhly has to be one of the pitchers being benched.

[KingKat]

This decision doesn't have to be made yet, we can basically see two starts each from Hutch and Estrada before it needs to be made.

 

Estrada has felt like he's on the cusp of getting absolutely hammered for a little while. FIP over 6 in 3 of his last 4 starts but of course you can't time things like regression. He could keep dancing between the rain drops or flat out pitch better.

[Masterbather]

I do think people are getting way ahead of themselves, but if Stroman is healthy and effective, I'd put Estrada ahead of both Buehrle and Dickey. Where I put Hutch still depends on what he does down the stretch, but I can definitely see a situation that has Buehrle and Dickey not make the playoff rotation. It would be a good problem to have.

[Mac Outlaw]

Got anything to back that up?

 

There was a thread called Hutch and FIP which talked about this earlier in August.

 

Basically Magits posted this, with a link to a good article:

 

 

There is an interesting article here (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...rperform-their) from 2012 about pitchers underperforming their FIP. It comes to a minor conclusion that perhaps pitchers do have SOME influence over their batted ball profiles, citing Johan Santana, who outperformed his FIP by 20 points over more than 2000 innings.

 

(because of his change up)

 

 

BTS, who loves his advanced stats, responded with this:

 

Obviously there are situations in which a pitcher's ERA doesn't match his DIPS and there’s something to it. Buehrle's ERA was lower than his FIP, people looked into it, and found that he's an absolute elite defender and that makes up most of the difference. Matt Cain had something going on. Knuckleballers and guys with elite changeups tend to give up fewer runs than DIPS suggests they should.

[Dr. Dinger]

*assuming we win the division

*assuming stroman is back to normal

 

THURS., OCT. 8 ALDS A, Game 1 DICKEY

 

FRI., OCT. 9 ALDS A, Game 2 PRICE

 

SUN., OCT. 11 ALDS A, Game 3 STRO

 

MON., OCT. 12 *ALDS A, Game 4 DICK

 

WED., OCT. 14 *ALDS A, Game 5 PRICE

 

 

I think its very possible to have 3-man rotation for playoffs, just by looking at schedule. Price Dickey Stroman; and spot start the rest if need be.

 

but honestly, if we go with a 4-man, i think burhly has to be one of the pitchers being benched.

 

Price has to start game 1, they will rearrange the rotation to make it happen.

[Mac Outlaw]

Price has to start game 1, they will rearrange the rotation to make it happen.

 

Dickey is not starting Game 1. This is not 1991.

[Sammy225]

He's also in jeopardy of having his 200 IP streak snapped, which would be unfortunate. That's the most impressive endurance streak since Cal Ripken.

 

I have been keeping an eye on that. He should get 5 more starts if he is indeed healthy..... Would need to average 5.2 innings per start I really want to see him get there because it is a really really impressive streak.

[Sammy225]

*assuming we win the division

*assuming stroman is back to normal

 

THURS., OCT. 8 ALDS A, Game 1 DICKEY

 

FRI., OCT. 9 ALDS A, Game 2 PRICE

 

SUN., OCT. 11 ALDS A, Game 3 STRO

 

MON., OCT. 12 *ALDS A, Game 4 DICK

 

WED., OCT. 14 *ALDS A, Game 5 PRICE

 

 

I think its very possible to have 3-man rotation for playoffs, just by looking at schedule. Price Dickey Stroman; and spot start the rest if need be.

 

but honestly, if we go with a 4-man, i think burhly has to be one of the pitchers being benched.

 

Providing everything goes to plan with Stroman the Jays will do what they can to get Price pitching the first game if they win the division with a few games to spare.

[KingKat]

There was a thread called Hutch and FIP which talked about this earlier in August.

 

Basically Magits posted this, with a link to a good article:

 

 

There is an interesting article here (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...rperform-their) from 2012 about pitchers underperforming their FIP. It comes to a minor conclusion that perhaps pitchers do have SOME influence over their batted ball profiles, citing Johan Santana, who outperformed his FIP by 20 points over more than 2000 innings.

 

(because of his change up)

 

 

BTS, who loves his advanced stats, responded with this:

 

Obviously there are situations in which a pitcher's ERA doesn't match his DIPS and there’s something to it. Buehrle's ERA was lower than his FIP, people looked into it, and found that he's an absolute elite defender and that makes up most of the difference. Matt Cain had something going on. Knuckleballers and guys with elite changeups tend to give up fewer runs than DIPS suggests they should.

 

Would you mind fixing the URL? The shortened version isn't working for me (and presumably not for others as well).

[BigCecil]

Estrada has felt like he's on the cusp of getting absolutely hammered for a little while. FIP over 6 in 3 of his last 4 starts but of course you can't time things like regression. He could keep dancing between the rain drops or flat out pitch better.

 

WAY ahead of themselves. We have to win the division first before anything else...and the head to head gms with the NYY will likely determine that.

 

Lets see what Stro does when gets the ball up here and go from there.

[Trouba95]

I don't want Burly in the playoff rotation vs playoff teams. His stuff can get away against lower-tier teams but not the big boys.

[Mac Outlaw]

Would you mind fixing the URL? The shortened version isn't working for me (and presumably not for others as well).

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/4/16/2933862/a-closer-look-at-pitchers-who-consistently-underperform-their

[KingKat]

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/4/16/2933862/a-closer-look-at-pitchers-who-consistently-underperform-their

 

Cool stuff. One big caveat I have about applying this to Estrada is that even though he does indeed have a good changeup he, unlike the players examined in the article, doesn't actually have a track record of major ERA/FIP/xFIP discrepancies. His career ERA/FIP/xFIP rates are 4.00/4.13/4.01. There's barely any variance at all. I just seems more likely that all were seeing right now is a disproportionate amount of outs on flyballs over a small sample giving the illusion of a FIP beater.

[burlingtonbandit]

As much as I love Buehrle he's not one of the best 4 starters on the team with Stroman Healthy. My first cut would be Estrada and it depends how Hutch is pitching come playoff time. If he's been pitching well I would use him as the 4th starter if not then maybe I go with Buehrle. I'd have Dickey start in the dome for game 2.

[puphood]

Personally Stroman to the pen use him for long relief and see how thing shape up before you start messing with the starters as you have a month left to work the details out on the starting rotation. I'll go with Gibbon's call.

[LGBJ29]

Personally Stroman to the pen use him for long relief and see how thing shape up before you start messing with the starters as you have a month left to work the details out on the starting rotation. I'll go with Gibbon's call.

 

If Stroman can pitch like he is capable of as a starter, he starts. There's no 2 ways about it

[RealAccountant]

I don't want Burly in the playoff rotation vs playoff teams. His stuff can get away against lower-tier teams but not the big boys.

 

Lol

 

Yeah lets not the only world series winner pitch you know the guy who has done it at the main stage

[Masterbather]

Lol

 

Yeah lets not the only world series winner pitch you know the guy who has done it at the main stage

 

 

It's not 2005 anymore. I think it's looking more and more likely that he gets left out of the rotation if Stroman returns.

[Trouba95]

Lol

 

Yeah lets not the only world series winner pitch you know the guy who has done it at the main stage

 

Yeah...when he used throw harder. Now he's just bp for good teams. Price, Stro, Dickey/Estrada and maybe Hutch at home.

[fireballW]

I have been keeping an eye on that. He should get 5 more starts if he is indeed healthy..... Would need to average 5.2 innings per start I really want to see him get there because it is a really really impressive streak.

 

Yeah. Gibby has taken him out a bit early on a few occasions. It would be really annoying if he misses this by a few innings. It is one streak in baseball that I actually appreciate.

[Sammy225]

Yeah. Gibby has taken him out a bit early on a few occasions. It would be really annoying if he misses this by a few innings. It is one streak in baseball that I actually appreciate.

 

That being said you got to do what is best for the ball club and not what is best for the record. I don't think we know how banged up he is but that might be pushing him back or giving him shorter outings especially with a bigger bullpen.