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Posted
He never threw harder. Thanks for watching baseball this year

 

In 2005? Yes he did. His velo has declined ever since. Sorry but you're wrong here.

Posted
In 2005? Yes he did. His velo has declined ever since. Sorry but you're wrong here.

 

In 2007 his average fastball was 86MPH he has never been above that..... maybe 89 but never 90

Posted
It's not 2005 anymore. I think it's looking more and more likely that he gets left out of the rotation if Stroman returns.

 

I still like to see him pitch in the playoffs. Advanced stats on Hutch or BS, the masses are right on this one, he is leaving a lot of pitches high in the zone and got smashed for it. Hutch is also one of our most unpredictable pitchers along with Dickey. I think he is way more likely to get shelled (6 runs in 2 IP type of an outing) than Buehrle.

Posted
There is an interesting article here (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...rperform-their) from 2012 about pitchers underperforming their FIP. It comes to a minor conclusion that perhaps pitchers do have SOME influence over their batted ball profiles, citing Johan Santana, who outperformed his FIP by 20 points over more than 2000 innings.

 

(because of his change up)

 

Uh, yeah, that's not very uncommon. There's a difference between outperforming your FIP/xFIP by 20-50 points, and outperforming your FIP/xFIP by a run/a-run-and-a-half. Estrada's profile this season is pretty much identical to his career profile (in terms of batted balls and pitch/fx) and this is first season where he's outperformed his FIP/xFIP. His walks are up, and his strikeouts are down; he's going to regress.

Posted
That doesn't mean Hutch is less of a pitcher than Estrada who's had a ton of luck go his way. Estrada sports a .229 BABIP... His HR/FB is at a career low while his FB% is the highest it's been in 5 years. Statistically it's made for great results but not when you think about an inevitable regression. He could get tattooed anytime and Stroman replacing him just seems like the right option. Estrada is comfortable out of the pen, we don't know what Hutch would bring and he's a great back up arm to use as a spot starter or long man.

 

Didn't say he was, wasn't my point, but knowing Gibby and AA Hutch will be the one demoted.

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