General Jays Discussion 2015

[L54]

Its to break up the LHH.

 

But it doesn't break up the LHH. Goins and Revere both bat left handed.

[Orgfiller]

But it doesn't break up the LHH. Goins and Revere both bat left handed.

 

I think he means Navarro and Smoak (both switch hitters but will be hitting from the left side against Gibson) but lol.

[L54]

I think he means Navarro and Smoak (both switch hitters but will be hitting from the left side against Gibson) but lol.

 

Ah. You're probably right. I do still think Goins above Pillar to break up him and Revere is good lineup construction, even if it's miniscule.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think he means Navarro and Smoak (both switch hitters but will be hitting from the left side against Gibson) but lol.

 

Well Smoak's there for his LH bat since he is a platoon.

[LTR]

Playoff chances now 70%

[saskjayfan]

so excited for tomorrow's game! OK! OK! Blue Jays! Blue Jays! Let's Let's! Play Play! Ball!

[TwistedLogic]

http://giant.gfycat.com/QuarrelsomeThoroughArchaeopteryx.gif

[LTR]

^Not a TV dive, makes really good TV tho

[GD]

superman that hoe now watch me yuuuuuu

[o2cui2i]

http://giant.gfycat.com/QuarrelsomeThoroughArchaeopteryx.gif

 

that's a beautiful catch... wish he could hit

[ElNik2013]

So where Donaldson's WAR at now?

[BigCecil]

So where Donaldson's WAR at now?

 

5.8

 

Just for shits and giggles Lawrie's is at 0.7

[RealAccountant]

How come when I go to edit a post, it gets deleted and tells me to "notify admin"? I've seen others have this same problem. Juiced, are you around? Thanks.

 

Its an issue on the android stock browser. I have the same issue, was doing it perfectly up until two weeks ago.

[RealAccountant]

Its even crazier to imagine that Trout is at 6.2 and he is barely having his 3rd best year in MLB. How good is Trout.

[jaysfan2014]

Jays have matched up well vs. the Yanks this year. We're 4-2 vs. them, and the Yanks lineup has had no change since May, when we met them. And the Yanks offense is due for a cool-off.. considering the roster's age, they're going to sustain .270-.280 averages forever. Despite winning the Sox series, the Yanks had some trouble scoring after that 9 run outburst in Game 1 of the series.. and McCann is questionable for the series.

 

We're facing Eovaldi (Yanks equiv. of Hutchison, with a high ERA yet gets tons of run support), Nova and Tanaka(who we have beaten already.). And our lineup is deeper now than back in April and May.

[Trouba95]

Think we can beat Eovaldi if Dickey gives up only like 2-3

[Trouba95]

Too bad no Travis vs Tanaka.

[L54]

Just for shits and giggles Lawrie's is at 0.7

 

Don't tell Olerud. He'll let you know how fast things can change!

[TwistedLogic]

So where Donaldson's WAR at now?

 

Trout was close to a whole win above him a few days ago I think, but this crazy series in Minnesota has gotten Donaldson back on his heels.

 

[o2cui2i]

ok... let's get too the nitty gritty. big factor that could push the jays over the top this season is Edwin. He's taken off the last 2 weeks and is very over due a hot streak. we all know that Edwin can carry the team on his own at times but this year he doesn't have to do it alone.

 

 

 

Last 14 days BA .371 OBP.488 OPS 1.003

 

a couple months of hot Ed would be excellent.

[o2cui2i]

Trout was close to a whole win above him a few days ago I think, but this crazy series in Minnesota has gotten Donaldson back on his heels.

 

 

special times mate... special times

[LRC1962]

There has been talk about how BJ's set things up so that Price pitches NY twice. I have heard very little of another setup, Price follows Dickey. There is a belief with some cred that it takes a team a couple of games to recover from a well pitched knuckle ball game. Dickey has that knuckle ball going really well right now. Follow that up with Prince on a noon game and no matter how well NYY has done against him in the past Sat. game will be murder on them. then follow up with Estrada and there still maybe enough of a hangover that that game still will be in BJs favour. 3-0

[Captain Adama]

There has been talk about how BJ's set things up so that Price pitches NY twice. I have heard very little of another setup, Price follows Dickey. There is a belief with some cred that it takes a team a couple of games to recover from a well pitched knuckle ball game. Dickey has that knuckle ball going really well right now. Follow that up with Prince on a noon game and no matter how well NYY has done against him in the past Sat. game will be murder on them. then follow up with Estrada and there still maybe enough of a hangover that that game still will be in BJs favour. 3-0

 

Yup, it's called the Dickey effect, and has already been measured by JFaS.

[LRC1962]

BoSox may have done the BJ's a favour by throwing out their knuckle baller 2 games ago, as Dickey is a different type of kber, NYY could be farther messed up.

[Spanky99]

Do you happen to have a link to that thread?

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2013/11/23/the-r-a-dickey-effect/

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2013/11/26/the-dickey-effect-part-ii-wakefield/

[LRC1962]

I remember watching the Niekro brothers. Back then pitching staffs would be 9-10 guys so that there was always a big bench. Most managers would use only bench players when those guys pitched because it was well known that it took 3+ days to recover from one of their starts. Now with almost no bench because of the sizes of the bullpens, managers no longer have that luxury.

I have always wondered why it has not been taught more.

1) Stigma of being a losers pitch in that you had to find something other then the major league pitch to stay in the game.

2) It takes years to master and you always have to maintain very tight control of mechanics to keep it working for you.

3) Since very few have actually thrown it, where can you find the teachers?

[Yankeerespect]

I remember looking at the stats for the Yankees after they faced Wakefield for all those years and they had a really good record against him, and the game after they faced him they fared well. I don't think they go up there thinking about it too much so doubt it lingers. I think they just see ball hit ball. If it's dancing around not much you can do.

[burlingtonbandit]

Tulo in his first 9 games 0.9 fWAR. Reyes in 69 games 1.1 fWAR. Yeah safe to say that was a massive upgrade...

[nextyear]

Tulo in his first 9 games 0.9 fWAR. Reyes in 69 games 1.1 fWAR. Yeah safe to say that was a massive upgrade...

 

I wonder if the effect is even greater than that. Can fangraphs accurately show the much improved range of Tulowitzki at SS? The improvement might in reality be more like 2 or 3 games better than Reyes playing those 9 games (all else being equal including having Price on the pitching staff).

[LRC1962]

You can crunch numbers all you want, but the greatest value Tulo has given the club is that now they believe they are good. Also I think Tulo's D is much better then Reyes so the pitchers trust that when a ball is hit in his direction it will be an out. Dramatically changing how you pitch and therefore making you more effective, therefore resulting in fewer RAs. WAR is not built to calculate all of that.

Getting back to believing. If you believe you can win, it does not matter what the score is before the game ends, you know you have a chance to win. If there is any doubt that you can win, then if near the end of the game comes and it seems out of reach, a win will rarely happen. Right now the BJs believe they can win each and every game and that started with the trade for Tulo.

For evidence of belief, look at what happened in the 1990's when the Twins started the year with 25 virtual nobodies who all believed they could win and kept that belief all season. They won the WS that year. If the BJs go on to win the WS, it does not matter that stats may say Tulo WAR ended at -4.0, the belief that got then there started with that trade and that is what makes that trade very important and valuable.