LRC1962

Fangraph projection (if reality only played out that way), has BJ finishing with 89.9 wins and NYY 89.2.

I understand how much all of you love sabermetrics, but really folks at least when it comes to defensive WAR????? I am still laughing. 1993 dWAR has Scott Fletcher 3rd overall in the AL for all positions combined. Cal Ripken 7th overall AL all positions combined. I am sorry but having seen those play (they did turn DPs very well), they were not close defensively to Roberto Alomar who did not show up in the top 10. And if I took the time I could mention at least 6 others who played SS and 2nd far far better then they did.

AA if you have not noticed is putting a very high value on team D. Danny V was let go because he was clueless if he had to do something more with the ball then catch it. Love Brett, but his days are numbered in BB because he plays it like you play hockey. He will always be spending too much time on the DL.

Case in point. George Bell at his peak would have very high WAR, FIP, xFIP, but anyone who played with him, watched him knew that any ball that went into left field was an adventure and advancing on him was a very high possibility. Therefore although we all loved him, we also would have not minded to have someone else that could actually play left field well with an arm.

The biggest rally killer in BB is the DP. FIP, xFIP, WAR or any other sabermetric stat can never tell you how a group of 4 infielders will do. They each have to have absolute belief that each will do the job needed to pull it off. It will then reflect on the pitching staff. An infield D that pulls off DPs really well tends to also develop a pitching staff to throw for ground balls. On the otherhand if the infield does not have the trust to pull off the DP, you then will see a pitching staff that will then try for the strikeout or flyball. All this gets reflected in ERA and WHIP. Sabermetrics can never tell you that story. Sabermetrics is fun, but because I believe BB is a TEAM sport, the team individual part sabermetrics are important, sabermetrics sum total rarely tell you what the TEAM results will be.

magic number 53, 49 games left

That is the story as told about Dizzy Dean. dizzydean biography https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1499&dat=19580919&id=ZFAaAAAAIBAJ&sjid=niUEAAAAIBAJ&pg=7381,4814704&hl=en and others have had the same thing happen.

The pitch starts with the feet and legs. If those are not 100%, the likelihood of arm injury is very high. Look at history of baseball. One of the best pitchers of all time, one of the Dean brothers, blew out his arm because of a broken big toe.

I do not want him back if it means he gets reinjured like to his arm. Too many young guyys rush things thinking they are unbreakable until they can not be fixed, then it is too late. The ashes of might have been is full of those types of pitchers.

OK then Pre all-star starts are also irrelevent because the pitchs that caused those stats are no longer on the pitching staff.

Those are this years numbers. They do tell a story and if you have a problem with that it is yours.

Post-All-Star Focus on ERA: Focus on Save % Focus on WHIP As you can see from the two posts something big happened to the pitching staff at the All-Star break. Even looking just at the July numbers as a whole they were bad. This being said, breaking down those charts, although the acquisition of Price can not be said how invaluable and impactful he will be to the whole pitching staff. The two pieces I see that could be even more important maybe Lowe and Hawkins as they really add depth to an improving bull pen. Edit:Sorry about small images clickable and a NB will try and make them bigger. Anyone know how to make it fit full width?

Point one some would take issue of me starting a topic as a noobie, but as I was looking at the stats what I found out blew me away. Braking it into 2 parts to make things more manageable. Images are broken at the All-Star break because that is where it seems the biggest change came. Pre-All-Star Focus on ERA: Focus on Save % Focus on WHIP

Magic number 55 games left 50. 11 games ago 8 games behind, now only 2.5 behind.

3 ways of calculating what is happening. Standings show GB which is calculated by (leader wins + leader losses - your team wins - your team losses) / 2 your losses - leaders losses + 1 = number of losses your team must have less then leader to win. Something that comes up when season is almost finished is magic number. Magic number is total games in season + 1 - your teams wins - leaders losses. In the Case of BJs winning div, 162+1-59(BJs wins)-47(NYY losses)=57 That shows why the 12 games left with NYY is vital. every time the BJs win that magic number falls by 2 and every time they lose it stays the same, but the number of games falls by one. Magic number for BJs is 57 with 51 games left. again 12 games left with NYY shows that BJs still hold their destiny in their own hands and do not need to depend on other teams to help them out.

Sets him up for the WC game or 1st game of the playoff series if they win div.

Price knows his last 2 starts vs NYY were awful, to a pitcher of his elite level that is a very big motivating factor to do well this time out and prove he is a very good pitcher. Second, ARD had an amazing game, and the knuckleball factor, although dissed by some is a known problem especially if you struggled. NYY bat time will probably be off as a result, therefore give greater edge to Price. Little batting practice time to correct things as it is noon game, making matters worse.

Sarcasm! All season bullpen has been rail against as terrible by fans and media. And NY thinks theirs is untouchable.

Worst bullpen in the world vs best in the world. 1-0

You can crunch numbers all you want, but the greatest value Tulo has given the club is that now they believe they are good. Also I think Tulo's D is much better then Reyes so the pitchers trust that when a ball is hit in his direction it will be an out. Dramatically changing how you pitch and therefore making you more effective, therefore resulting in fewer RAs. WAR is not built to calculate all of that. Getting back to believing. If you believe you can win, it does not matter what the score is before the game ends, you know you have a chance to win. If there is any doubt that you can win, then if near the end of the game comes and it seems out of reach, a win will rarely happen. Right now the BJs believe they can win each and every game and that started with the trade for Tulo. For evidence of belief, look at what happened in the 1990's when the Twins started the year with 25 virtual nobodies who all believed they could win and kept that belief all season. They won the WS that year. If the BJs go on to win the WS, it does not matter that stats may say Tulo WAR ended at -4.0, the belief that got then there started with that trade and that is what makes that trade very important and valuable.

I remember watching the Niekro brothers. Back then pitching staffs would be 9-10 guys so that there was always a big bench. Most managers would use only bench players when those guys pitched because it was well known that it took 3+ days to recover from one of their starts. Now with almost no bench because of the sizes of the bullpens, managers no longer have that luxury. I have always wondered why it has not been taught more. 1) Stigma of being a losers pitch in that you had to find something other then the major league pitch to stay in the game. 2) It takes years to master and you always have to maintain very tight control of mechanics to keep it working for you. 3) Since very few have actually thrown it, where can you find the teachers?

Scored 3 runs against a very bad pitching club. Be nice for that to continue on.

BoSox may have done the BJ's a favour by throwing out their knuckle baller 2 games ago, as Dickey is a different type of kber, NYY could be farther messed up.

Infected finger. There has been talk about how BJ's set things up so that Price pitches NY twice. I have heard very little of another setup, Price follows Dickey. There is a belief with some cred that it takes a team a couple of games to recover from a well pitched knuckle ball game. Dickey has that knuckle ball going really well right now. Follow that up with Prince on a noon game and no matter how well NYY has done against him in the past Sat. game will be murder on them. then follow up with Estrada and there still maybe enough of a hangover that that game still will be in BJs favour. 3-0

There has been talk about how BJ's set things up so that Price pitches NY twice. I have heard very little of another setup, Price follows Dickey. There is a belief with some cred that it takes a team a couple of games to recover from a well pitched knuckle ball game. Dickey has that knuckle ball going really well right now. Follow that up with Prince on a noon game and no matter how well NYY has done against him in the past Sat. game will be murder on them. then follow up with Estrada and there still maybe enough of a hangover that that game still will be in BJs favour. 3-0