LRC1962

Fangraph projection (if reality only played out that way), has BJ finishing with 89.9 wins and NYY 89.2.

I understand how much all of you love sabermetrics, but really folks at least when it comes to defensive WAR????? I am still laughing. 1993 dWAR has Scott Fletcher 3rd overall in the AL for all positions combined. Cal Ripken 7th overall AL all positions combined. I am sorry but having seen those play (they did turn DPs very well), they were not close defensively to Roberto Alomar who did not show up in the top 10. And if I took the time I could mention at least 6 others who played SS and 2nd far far better then they did.

AA if you have not noticed is putting a very high value on team D. Danny V was let go because he was clueless if he had to do something more with the ball then catch it. Love Brett, but his days are numbered in BB because he plays it like you play hockey. He will always be spending too much time on the DL.

Case in point. George Bell at his peak would have very high WAR, FIP, xFIP, but anyone who played with him, watched him knew that any ball that went into left field was an adventure and advancing on him was a very high possibility. Therefore although we all loved him, we also would have not minded to have someone else that could actually play left field well with an arm.

The biggest rally killer in BB is the DP. FIP, xFIP, WAR or any other sabermetric stat can never tell you how a group of 4 infielders will do. They each have to have absolute belief that each will do the job needed to pull it off. It will then reflect on the pitching staff. An infield D that pulls off DPs really well tends to also develop a pitching staff to throw for ground balls. On the otherhand if the infield does not have the trust to pull off the DP, you then will see a pitching staff that will then try for the strikeout or flyball. All this gets reflected in ERA and WHIP. Sabermetrics can never tell you that story. Sabermetrics is fun, but because I believe BB is a TEAM sport, the team individual part sabermetrics are important, sabermetrics sum total rarely tell you what the TEAM results will be.

magic number 53, 49 games left

That is the story as told about Dizzy Dean. dizzydean biography https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1499&dat=19580919&id=ZFAaAAAAIBAJ&sjid=niUEAAAAIBAJ&pg=7381,4814704&hl=en and others have had the same thing happen.

The pitch starts with the feet and legs. If those are not 100%, the likelihood of arm injury is very high. Look at history of baseball. One of the best pitchers of all time, one of the Dean brothers, blew out his arm because of a broken big toe.

I do not want him back if it means he gets reinjured like to his arm. Too many young guyys rush things thinking they are unbreakable until they can not be fixed, then it is too late. The ashes of might have been is full of those types of pitchers.

OK then Pre all-star starts are also irrelevent because the pitchs that caused those stats are no longer on the pitching staff.

Those are this years numbers. They do tell a story and if you have a problem with that it is yours.

Post-All-Star Focus on ERA: Focus on Save % Focus on WHIP As you can see from the two posts something big happened to the pitching staff at the All-Star break. Even looking just at the July numbers as a whole they were bad. This being said, breaking down those charts, although the acquisition of Price can not be said how invaluable and impactful he will be to the whole pitching staff. The two pieces I see that could be even more important maybe Lowe and Hawkins as they really add depth to an improving bull pen. Edit:Sorry about small images clickable and a NB will try and make them bigger. Anyone know how to make it fit full width?

Point one some would take issue of me starting a topic as a noobie, but as I was looking at the stats what I found out blew me away. Braking it into 2 parts to make things more manageable. Images are broken at the All-Star break because that is where it seems the biggest change came. Pre-All-Star Focus on ERA: Focus on Save % Focus on WHIP

Magic number 55 games left 50. 11 games ago 8 games behind, now only 2.5 behind.

3 ways of calculating what is happening. Standings show GB which is calculated by (leader wins + leader losses - your team wins - your team losses) / 2 your losses - leaders losses + 1 = number of losses your team must have less then leader to win. Something that comes up when season is almost finished is magic number. Magic number is total games in season + 1 - your teams wins - leaders losses. In the Case of BJs winning div, 162+1-59(BJs wins)-47(NYY losses)=57 That shows why the 12 games left with NYY is vital. every time the BJs win that magic number falls by 2 and every time they lose it stays the same, but the number of games falls by one. Magic number for BJs is 57 with 51 games left. again 12 games left with NYY shows that BJs still hold their destiny in their own hands and do not need to depend on other teams to help them out.