Aaron Sanchez Reality Check Thread

[havok24]

Ace upside... needs a bit better control.... ump gave him nothing tonight and when he missed, it wasn't by much

 

"A bit" is an understatement. Guy has been walking the ballpark this season. Aaron Sanchez isn't a very good pitcher right now as is. Doesn't miss enough bats, and walks way too many hitters. An obvious recipe for disaster.

[Spoonovic]

Why do you guys think Sanchez doesn't generate more swing and misses?

 

I mean he has a fastball with a lot of moment and a natural sink. Also his curveball is pretty deadly. His "stuff" says he should generate at least a decent amount of swings and misses. The results say otherwise though.

[Nox]

It's SSS and he's been squeezed by the umps. Let's see what happens.

 

Also, Randy Johnson had a season with 6.79 BB/9 and amassed 2.8 WAR.

 

Do you have any idea how stupid you look when you compare Aaron Sanchez to Randy Johnson?

[Nox]

and the average for 21-23 yr old starters so far this year is ~4.5

 

lack of control goes with the territory for most young pitchers

 

And do you know the main reason why the league average goes down to 2.8? The s***** young pitchers (like Aaron Sanchez) don't get better, they fall out of the sample. They are out of the league.

 

How is that not obvious. Think a little bit. Good f***ing god.

[Nox]

SirBJay in Statistics there's something called sample size before hitting the panic button lets give the kid 100 innings

 

Don't mention sample size and then throw out a random, round number (100). Garbage post.

[tercet]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=200&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,d&page=1_50

 

In a best case scenario(1%?) for this year, maybe Aaron can be 2004 Brandon Webb.

[tercet]

Why do you guys think Sanchez doesn't generate more swing and misses?

 

I mean he has a fastball with a lot of moment and a natural sink. Also his curveball is pretty deadly. His "stuff" says he should generate at least a decent amount of swings and misses. The results say otherwise though.

 

Good Question

 

Probably something to do with the fact he is behind in counts so often, and hitters don't wanna swing much(I could be wrong).

[RealAccountant]

If Randy Johnson was pitching his rookie season in Toronto this year, you guys would have driven him out of town with a walk rate above 5 in 9 innings.

[Nox]

A dubious but tenable position: Aaron Sanchez might turn into a good pitcher.

 

A position that exposes that you know nothing about baseball: Aaron Sanchez has been ok this year.

 

If you you fall into the latter category, it's time to just lurk for a while. Unless you're JimCanuck. He's obviously hopeless.

[Caper]

How incredible of a pitcher do you have to be to apparently be the worst pitcher ever and go 7 scoreless?

[Caper]

 

A positijon that exposes that you know nothing about baseball: Aaron Sanchez has been ok this year.

 

 

He was ok last night. His catcher applied as much. Does his catcher no nothing about baseball?

[Caper]

I take notice when stats guys say someone is awful when the results might be saying otherwise. It means something. But I've lurked here for quite a while and these are the same guys that laughed and made fun of anyone that thought Yan Gomes looked pretty good. And I'm sure laughed and snickered when people thought Bautista looked good 5 years ago.

[burlingtonbandit]

Why do you guys think Sanchez doesn't generate more swing and misses?

 

I mean he has a fastball with a lot of moment and a natural sink. Also his curveball is pretty deadly. His "stuff" says he should generate at least a decent amount of swings and misses. The results say otherwise though.

 

He doesn't have much deception to his delivery and while the fastball and curveball have great movement the velocity is very different. If he could develop a better changeup it would really help him get more swing and miss with the fastball. Also while his curve has great movement it doesn't have that late break like some guys do.

 

Thats my guess anyway.

[flafson]

Why do you guys think Sanchez doesn't generate more swing and misses?

 

I mean he has a fastball with a lot of moment and a natural sink. Also his curveball is pretty deadly. His "stuff" says he should generate at least a decent amount of swings and misses. The results say otherwise though.

 

Probably because hitters knows he walks a lot, so why offer at something unless you must?

[crmr]

He doesn't have much deception to his delivery and while the fastball and curveball have great movement the velocity is very different. If he could develop a better changeup it would really help him get more swing and miss with the fastball. Also while his curve has great movement it doesn't have that late break like some guys do.

 

Thats my guess anyway.

 

My guess is he throws too many get-me-over fastballs due to being behind 3-0 and 3-1 too much.

[ElNik2013]

He doesn't have much deception to his delivery and while the fastball and curveball have great movement the velocity is very different. If he could develop a better changeup it would really help him get more swing and miss with the fastball. Also while his curve has great movement it doesn't have that late break like some guys do.

 

Thats my guess anyway.

 

 

 

Sanchez is up there with Jimenez as far as % of pitches taken by hitters. He's also among the worst at throwing strike 1 so he's usually behind in the count.

 

I'm watching for improvement of his change-up and hopefully his new slider as well. I'm hoping Pete Walker was responsible for helping Hutchison improve his slider and Stroman his sinker. Keyword being "hoping"...

[BTS]

I take notice when stats guys say someone is awful when the results might be saying otherwise. It means something. But I've lurked here for quite a while and these are the same guys that laughed and made fun of anyone that thought Yan Gomes looked pretty good. And I'm sure laughed and snickered when people thought Bautista looked good 5 years ago.

 

Nobody had any reason to believe that Yan Gomes could catch. There isn't a good way for fans to evaluate minor league defense, especially for a catcher, and the team that drafted and developed him for four years didn't think he could catch. As it turns out, the jays were more incompetent than anyone could have possibly imagined and he's a plus at everything on the defensive side. People were wrong about Gomes, but the information that led to an incorrect assessment was a lot more questionable than the information we have on Sanchez (or any MLB pitcher).

[Jimcanuck]

A dubious but tenable position: Aaron Sanchez might turn into a good pitcher.

 

A position that exposes that you know nothing about baseball: Aaron Sanchez has been ok this year.

 

If you you fall into the latter category, it's time to just lurk for a while. Unless you're JimCanuck. He's obviously hopeless.

 

He's been ok as a 22 yr old 5th starter. If he was 28 yrs old, I'd say replace him. If he was putting up these results as the 2nd or 3rd starter, I'd say the Jays need to upgrade.

 

Think before you post your insulting drivel.

[GD]

A dubious but tenable position: Aaron Sanchez might turn into a good pitcher.

 

A position that exposes that you know nothing about baseball: Aaron Sanchez has been ok this year.

 

If you you fall into the latter category, it's time to just lurk for a while. Unless you're JimCanuck. He's obviously hopeless.

 

Nox has no chil

[ScientificReason]

Odds that Sanchez banged Tercets sisters?

[SAAviour]

The kids improving every game, as a 22 year old with insane movement on his 96 mph fastball. Obviously he has been lucky a lot this year, but he also created some of that luck with a couple double plays...which is due to his movement and batters hitting week grounders for days.

 

So yes, he's been more bad then good this year.

But anyone who wants to give up and throw him in the bullpen for the rest of his career is insane. Give the 22 year old a chance! It is possible to gain control with age.

 

One last thing, if he can get his 94 mph 3-0 fastball for a strike on the first pitch, and batters start 0-1 instead of 1-0 the strike outs will increase.

[BigCecil]

Happy he went 7 and shocked no runs. Some encouraging signs. Hope he can miraculously develop better command. The number of balls up and/or out of the zone are going to end the magic eventually if it continues. Even with solid D.

 

Martin has been beyond expectations with bat and throwing but yet to see that positive effect much discussed with these arms. Last time I looked he and Pillar both at solid 1.4 WAR.

[Sorrow]

Nobody had any reason to believe that Yan Gomes could catch. There isn't a good way for fans to evaluate minor league defense, especially for a catcher, and the team that drafted and developed him for four years didn't think he could catch. As it turns out, the jays were more incompetent than anyone could have possibly imagined and he's a plus at everything on the defensive side. People were wrong about Gomes, but the information that led to an incorrect assessment was a lot more questionable than the information we have on Sanchez (or any MLB pitcher).

 

Kevin Cash and apparently (though I can't find an article but I remember hearing it) Fasano said he could catch.

 

It was on the rest of the staff there.

[BigCecil]

Kevin Cash and apparently (though I can't find an article but I remember hearing it) Fasano said he could catch.

 

It was on the rest of the staff there.

 

I didn't see it in Gomes but that's irrelevant. Jays have professional talent evaluators up the ying yang. There is no excuse to miss it for them. The chain of events after blowing him off really hurts...

 

- Stuck with JPA too long when even the most casual fan could see the issues on O and D. How could we over estimate his ceiling and fail so badly on Gomes?

 

- Lost Aviles and Farrel also with Rogers in return.

 

- Stuck with Navarro 2nd year of his signing after dealing with a replacement level first year from him.

 

- Had to pay $82mm to sign Martin to end the madness which hurt our ability to pick up quality FA arms which we are seeing the effects of.

 

Past is the past but this still pisses me off.

[Dick_Pole]

Check out this 4 pitch walk, bro!

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/numlocation.php-pitchSel=592717&game=gid_2015_05_08_bosmlb_tormlb_1&batterX=21&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3&league=mlb&pnf=&zlpo=&cache=1.gif

 

If you're a young pitcher that's been walking the park and show little command, you're not gonna get those strikes from the ump. Sad but true human part of baseball.

[BTS]

The kids improving every game, as a 22 year old with insane movement on his 96 mph fastball. Obviously he has been lucky a lot this year, but he also created some of that luck with a couple double plays...which is due to his movement and batters hitting week grounders for days.

 

So yes, he's been more bad then good this year.

But anyone who wants to give up and throw him in the bullpen for the rest of his career is insane. Give the 22 year old a chance! It is possible to gain control with age.

 

One last thing, if he can get his 94 mph 3-0 fastball for a strike on the first pitch, and batters start 0-1 instead of 1-0 the strike outs will increase.

 

lol, no he's not. He's had two consecutive outings in which he's pitched terribly and not been burned. It happens all the time. He's walked 11 and struck out 8 in his last two starts, lol.

[BTS]

Kevin Cash and apparently (though I can't find an article but I remember hearing it) Fasano said he could catch.

 

It was on the rest of the staff there.

 

Yeah, it's on the front office for sure. Obviously the fans don't really listen when minor league coaches talk a player up, not should they. It's an endless stream of worthless noise. The FO absolutely has to know when a guy who's been in the system for 4 years can catch at an above average level though.

[RealAccountant]

lol, no he's not. He's had two consecutive outings in which he's pitched terribly and not been burned. It happens all the time. He's walked 11 and struck out 8 in his last two starts, lol.

 

I still dont understand why you are so bitter on him. Let the dude pitch, he was the reason we won yesterday, and compared to Hutch he hasn't pitched that bad. Yes he is walking guys, but he is a 22 year old rookie.

[Nox]

He's been ok as a 22 yr old 5th starter. If he was 28 yrs old, I'd say replace him. If he was putting up these results as the 2nd or 3rd starter, I'd say the Jays need to upgrade.

 

No, he has not been ok this year. He has been sub replacement level garbage.

 

Might he become ok (as in a usable 5th starter)? Maybe, though I'd bet against it.

[flafson]

Nobody had any reason to believe that Yan Gomes could catch. There isn't a good way for fans to evaluate minor league defense, especially for a catcher, and the team that drafted and developed him for four years didn't think he could catch. As it turns out, the jays were more incompetent than anyone could have possibly imagined and he's a plus at everything on the defensive side. People were wrong about Gomes, but the information that led to an incorrect assessment was a lot more questionable than the information we have on Sanchez (or any MLB pitcher).

 

It was fairly obvious to me that Gomes could hit and play good defense both as infielder and catcher, not sure why the staff didn't see that. I was crushed when i heard we traded him.

Did i think he was an all star? No, but i've seen enough of him to be given a good look, not trade the guy...